Why I only trade oil and gas

Messages
12
I find oil and gas trading easier and less stressful than Forex, and a lot less frustrating than trying to trade manipulated Gold and Silver markets.

From a fundamentals point of view, data is readily available, and narrow in nature. What I mean by this is best explained with a couple of examples.

Forex - economic performance analysis, geopolitical factors, and in the case of the AUD, NZD, and CAD, commodity prices for oil, Gold and Silver, must be factored into the analysis. There is a wide band of fundamental information to be captured and analysed, but does it really help if you're trading shorter time-frames?

Gold and Silver - you would think that simple analysis of supply and demand factors would be enough to provide the necessary insight to trade successfully, but that's not the case. If it were, Gold and Silver prices would be substantially higher than at present. Demand for Silver, for instance, is exploding right now, and yet prices remain stubbornly low. And is it any wonder, when market giants (you know who they are!) flood the market with short positions whenever prices begin to rise. It's a joke!

Oil and Gas - regular weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute, Baker Hughes, and the Energy Information Administration, tell us the number of rigs in operation, as well as oil and gas stocks on hand. If the rig count increases, prices are likely to fall, and vice versa. Likewise, if stocks and inventories begin to pile-up, demand is falling and prices will follow suit soon. It really doesn't have to be any more complex than this. Information is timely, easy to absorb and interpret, and most important of all, helps determine likely price direction over the next week or so. Clean and simple.

Turning to technical analysis, both oil and gas lend themselves well to price chart analysis. A moving average and oscillator are all I need to trade successfully. See the attached charts, for example.

I will be posting my trading results here every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, and hope you find it interesting.
CRUDEOILH4.png

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Marcos_de_Santos

Private, 1st Class
Messages
46
I find oil and gas trading easier and less stressful than Forex, and a lot less frustrating than trying to trade manipulated Gold and Silver markets.

From a fundamentals point of view, data is readily available, and narrow in nature. What I mean by this is best explained with a couple of examples.

Forex - economic performance analysis, geopolitical factors, and in the case of the AUD, NZD, and CAD, commodity prices for oil, Gold and Silver, must be factored into the analysis. There is a wide band of fundamental information to be captured and analysed, but does it really help if you're trading shorter time-frames?

Gold and Silver - you would think that simple analysis of supply and demand factors would be enough to provide the necessary insight to trade successfully, but that's not the case. If it were, Gold and Silver prices would be substantially higher than at present. Demand for Silver, for instance, is exploding right now, and yet prices remain stubbornly low. And is it any wonder, when market giants (you know who they are!) flood the market with short positions whenever prices begin to rise. It's a joke!

Oil and Gas - regular weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute, Baker Hughes, and the Energy Information Administration, tell us the number of rigs in operation, as well as oil and gas stocks on hand. If the rig count increases, prices are likely to fall, and vice versa. Likewise, if stocks and inventories begin to pile-up, demand is falling and prices will follow suit soon. It really doesn't have to be any more complex than this. Information is timely, easy to absorb and interpret, and most important of all, helps determine likely price direction over the next week or so. Clean and simple.

Turning to technical analysis, both oil and gas lend themselves well to price chart analysis. A moving average and oscillator are all I need to trade successfully. See the attached charts, for example.

I will be posting my trading results here every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, and hope you find it interesting.View attachment 65500
View attachment 65501
Very interesting and seems pretty easy, thanks a bunch!
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,852
Tuesday, 8 June, 2021

Hi Olga...thank you for posting about trading Oil & Gas which, at one time, I too was a keen Trader until the price went crazy to the USD100 levels and it became difficult to get predictions correctly.
You are correct that, unlike with other commodities & currency pairs, with Oil, there really isn't a lot to analyze:

"If the rig count increases, prices are likely to fall, and vice versa. Likewise, if stocks and inventories begin to pile-up, demand is falling and prices will follow suit soon. It really doesn't have to be any more complex than this. Information is timely, easy to absorb and interpret, and most important of all, helps determine likely price direction over the next week or so."

Thanks to you I am once again back into trading commodities, specifically, Spot Oil, with some Gold on the side.

I would highly appreciate your thoughts on very recent rise of Spot Oil to just above the USD70 level.
Frankly, for me, I think that kind of pricing is not sustainable because most parts of the world are still fighting Covid-19 and imposing total lockdown, while those who have managed to contain the virus are barely getting their economy back on track.

Cheers & all the best!
 
Messages
12
Hi Olga...thank you for posting about trading Oil & Gas which, at one time, I too was a keen Trader until the price went crazy to the USD100 levels and it became difficult to get predictions correctly.
You are correct that, unlike with other commodities & currency pairs, with Oil, there really isn't a lot to analyze:

"If the rig count increases, prices are likely to fall, and vice versa. Likewise, if stocks and inventories begin to pile-up, demand is falling and prices will follow suit soon. It really doesn't have to be any more complex than this. Information is timely, easy to absorb and interpret, and most important of all, helps determine likely price direction over the next week or so."

Thanks to you I am once again back into trading commodities, specifically, Spot Oil, with some Gold on the side.

I would highly appreciate your thoughts on very recent rise of Spot Oil to just above the USD70 level.
Frankly, for me, I think that kind of pricing is not sustainable because most parts of the world are still fighting Covid-19 and imposing total lockdown, while those who have managed to contain the virus are barely getting their economy back on track.

Cheers & all the best!
Thanks for the feedback. Oil should continue to move higher as the US moves towards normalisation and the economy comes back to life. Next port of call is around $72 a barrel.
 
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