WTF?! Why do I lose w/ FPA News Trades?

cowmadagan

Sergeant
Messages
393
aaaaaahhhhhh!!!!!! Music Man, that's called 'straddling'....
That's actually inviting slippage and getting stopped out both ways with no position to get the profit of the movement after.
Straddling only works if you have a one way spike....I've seen some really nasty two way initial spikes, like from start up 40 and then to -40 from start. Or like this.
I understand that an OCO order is supposed to make it so that only one goes through, but...we need 8fingers over here to supply some pessimism.
 
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cowmadagan

Sergeant
Messages
393
Yo Ricex, I expect the rates to stay the same but the market to turn that into a big USD positive as a whiner reaction..
Also, since we haven't seen anywhere near 1.04 in a while, it would give a bit more spice to it.
 

Ricex

Sergeant
Messages
359
I would have thought that that would have already been factored in, no real expectation of anything changing with CAD, but this strong move is a result of the dollar retracements after a move higher and a strong move up in oil.

Keep an eye on oil to see if it can hold, if not $cad will move higher.
 

cowmadagan

Sergeant
Messages
393
yeah, well, I guessed the way I did because I'm originally from Canada and have been thwarted repeatedly by Carney and the BoC. They've been spastically dovish, and they actually started to actually say one or two good things about the economy in the last month. I just knew better because of the way that Canadian gov't can be such lap dogs of the US. Of course, pegging to a sinking ship...erm...currency has helped other countries too.

That said, I've liked the CAD recently because of its resilience.
 

cowmadagan

Sergeant
Messages
393
oh...and for my and Ricex's sake, does anyone know someone in the Swiss central bank that you can call to get them to hurry up on that intervention?
 

ernest8fingers

Master Sergeant
Messages
489
"My broker is Forex.com."- I believe this is the pessimism you asked for Cowmadagan-lol. I had em-for maybe all of 2 weeks. I dont trade news - only its aftermath. There is usually time to follow the "heard" AFTER the news release. I DAY trade (usually) 1 to 10 "mini" lots and takeprofit ASAP even if I am no where near a S/R level. Sometimes I lock in profits with Stop or OCO. Depends on mood. I have lost far too many times on NEWS to keep trying.
 

Music Man

Corporal
Messages
91
>>straddling

No promises, but if you pick the right pair and set your stops far enough away, it does reduce the risk of pre-news shenanigans.

EURUSD on NFP is a pretty good one, at least better than the Aussie. That Aussie gets some outrageous spread-widening and spikes just before big news releases.

I guess I was +46 pips on the last NFP. Your pipage may vary. :)

MM
 

Ricex

Sergeant
Messages
359
oh...and for my and Ricex's sake, does anyone know someone in the Swiss central bank that you can call to get them to hurry up on that intervention?

lol, that's a complicated one, bit like their watches.....

Couple of quotes from the report, sorry getting a bit off post subject,

the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the low absolute level of U.S. demand continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in Canada.

Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target.

CAD is strong at the moment which is a handicap when your country likes to export. It's the same story for Japan and Switzerland.
 
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