ATFX Market Updates 2020

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Feb 10

Personal opinions today:

U.S. non-farm payrolls rose to 225,000 in January, up from 145,000 in December but below the 290,000 ADP payrolls. Meanwhile, the U.S. average hourly earnings edged up 0.2% in January compared with December. It is believed that the improvement in China and U.S. trade relations since the end of last year, as well as China's increased imports of goods, and the U.S. government's reduction of off-quota tariffs have boosted U.S. businesses' investment confidence and created jobs and rising wages. Believe this week's U.S. CPI, retail sales for January and the Michigan consumer confidence index are also likely to rise, could bullish Dow futures and the dollar. By contrast, it is bearish for European currencies and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar. Also, it could limit the rise in gold and silver prices. The crude oil price would be looking at OPEC production cut and manufacturing production in China.

There are no important data for Europe or the United States today. The market would be watching Dow futures and global equities to reflect investor sentiment. Note Dow futures and global equities to see where the dollar is headed against the yen and gold and silver.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * refers to the degree of importance

09:30 China CPI annual rate for January ***
13:00 Japan economic observer outlook index for January *
14:45 Swiss unemployment rate for January **
15:30 Switzerland January CPI monthly rate **
17:00 Eurozone Sentix investor confidence for February ***
21:15 Canada starts new homes in January **
21:15 Federal reserve governor Paul speaks **

EURUSD
1.0975/1.0985 resistance
1.0930/1.0920 support
Last Friday, U.S. job data for January continued to be strong, average wages rose, economic expansion and monetary policy remained appropriate, and the dollar strengthened. Now investors see the Eurozone economic growth remains lower than U.S. growth, the Euro could fall further to its low of 1.0930 or 1.0880 against the dollar in the second half of last year. Technically, the EURUSD note is limited to 1.0985 resistance. Moreover, the volatility of the pound will indirectly affect the volatility of the Euro.

Pound to dollar
1.2935/1.2955 resistance
1.2885/1.2845 support
U.S. economic and job data for January were strong, the dollar rose and the pound continued its downward trend. Investors have turned cautious on the pound after a Brexit and are still negotiating a trade deal. Markets look ahead to U.K. fourth-quarter GDP results tomorrow. Technically, note that resistance to the dollar is limited to 1.2955 ahead of the UK's fourth-quarter GDP report tomorrow.

Australian dollar
0.6705/0.6715 resistance
0.6670/0.6655 support
Strong U.S. economic and job data and a rise in the U.S. dollar index have not only limited the Australian dollar's gains, but the trend also continued to decline. By expectation, Australia's economy is expected to pick up in the first quarter, and the Australian dollar could rise. Stay focused on the AUDUSD adjustment to the current 0.66 level, or consider buying as low as possible. Technically, the downside looks to be 0.6670 or 0.6655 support, and it could see 0.6755 resistance as the U.S. economy continues to grow and China's economic recovery strengthens in a short period.

Dollar to yen
109.90/110.00 resistance
109.55/109.45 support
Risk aversion in the U.S cooled after January's economic and job data showed growth. U.S. Dow futures and global stock markets are expected to have limited losses. The dollar/yen is expected to support resistance at 109, above 110. If Dow futures continue their upward trend, the dollar could test 110.20 resistance against the yen. Believe, this week the United States economic data outlook positive, led the global stock market, the dollar against the yen indirect rise.

USDCAD
1.3315/1.3325 resistance
1.3270/1.3260 support
U.S. economic and job data beat expectations, easing fears of a slowdown in demand for crude oil, which could lower crude prices and boost the Canadian dollar. If crude oil prices can break through resistance at $52.38 and rise, it could see further gains in the Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD watch for 1.3325 resistance. If it breaks 1.3260 support, look for 1.3180 support.

US crude oil futures
52.35/52.60 resistance
49.55/49.35 support
Strong job and economic data from the United States could potentially bullish for crude oil prices. If OPEC production cuts are confirmed, and if they are coordinated with other producers, they could stabilize prices and lead to a rebound. The resumption of manufacturing and factory construction on the mainland is now a cause for concern, which could increase demand for crude oil and possibly lead to higher crude oil prices.

Gold
1575/1577 resistance
1560/1558 support
Recent U.S. economic data has been strong, and gold could fall if Dow futures rise and risk aversion cool. Although most of Central Banks around the world continued to keep interest rates low and increase the money supply, gold prices rose. On the other hand, non-farm data in the United States show average wages rising. Expectations for inflation and consumption data out of the United States this week are rising, giving gold a chance to fall.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
29215/29415 resistance
28855/28695 support
U.S. payrolls and average wages rose in January, expected to add to this week's U.S. data, which could lift Dow futures. Short-term Dow futures move to adjust for gains, with a target of 28855 or 28695 support. If combined with coming U.S. data release or any good news on signs of economic recovery, Dow futures could test 29,415 resistance.

BTCUSD:
10800 / 11250 resistance
9850 / 9600 support
U.S. job data rose much more than expected, it could foresee the Dow futures rebounded, back to record high 29400 levels. Keep watching the Dow future and global stock indexes. If Dow fall, the bitcoin price could up. Otherwise, the bitcoin could fall.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Website: https://www.atfx.com/gm/en/?utm_sou...utm_campaign=other_media-buy_press-release_en

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Website: https://www.atfx.com/gm/en/?utm_sou...utm_campaign=other_media-buy_press-release_en

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Feb 11

Personal opinions today:

Investment sentiment continued to be positive yesterday, supported by U.S. non-farm payrolls data for January and a good reading on wages. Moreover, the improvement of trade relations between China and the United States will boost the investment confidence of American enterprises and increase the expectation of corporate earnings growth. Now, investors are looking for gains in January consumer prices, retail sales, and the Michigan consumer sentiment index, which will be released this week, and could see gains in Dow futures and the dollar index. The lack of good news in Europe and commodity currencies is expected to be bearish for the Euro and commodity currencies. If Dow futures and the dollar continue to strengthen, it is believed that this will limit the upside space for gold and silver prices, more likely to adjust recent gains, prices fell. China’s industrial and manufacturing sectors returned to work after the Chinese New Year holiday, boosting demand for crude oil. Tomorrow morning, the market will wait to see the outlook for the energy report and the results of oil inventories, with the monthly short-term energy outlook from the international energy agency (EIA) and last week's API crude oil inventories.

In European trading today, U.K released its first estimate of its December merchandise trade account and Q4 GDP. Investors now waiting for the annual report from ECB and testimony from federal reserve and Bank of England governor appeared at the hearing tonight. These speeches would directly affect the European currencies, global stock markets, and gold prices. The market could also volatility tonight, please pay attention!

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * refers to the degree of importance

17:30 U.K. Trade account for December **
17:30 U.K. GDP for Q4 ***
17:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output in December *
19:00 U.S. January NFIB small business confidence index *
22:00 ECB President delivers annual report ***
23:00 Fed chairman Powell testifies ***
23:30 Bank of England governor attends the hearing ***
The next day 01:00 EIA releases short-term energy outlook **
The next day, 05:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks change ***

EURUSD
1.0935/1.0945 resistance
1.0890/1.0880 support
U.S. jobs and economic growth were strong in January, and the federal reserve has a good outlook for the U.S. economy. The ECB's outlook for the future is uncertain given the steady performance of European economic data. As here analysis estimates yesterday, the Euro has tested 1.0930 support against the dollar. Watch tonight for ECB President annual report on the bank's monetary policy and outlook. Technically, the EURUSD note is limited to 1.0985 resistance, short-term resistance 1.0940. The Euro could continue its downward trend against the dollar, with an opportunity to test last year's low of 1.0880. In addition, pay attention to the pound fluctuations, indirect impact on the Euro.

Pound to dollar
1.2935/1.2955 resistance
1.2885/1.2855 support
As markets wait for the release of the UK's Q4 GDP results today, they are advised to take note. Investors now expect GDP growth to fall. Resistance to the dollar is believed to be limited to 1.2955 ahead of the data. In addition, the governor of the Bank of England, Carney, will appear at a hearing tonight on how the presentation of monetary policy could affect the value of the pound. Looking ahead, the pound is trading at $1.2855.

Australian dollar
0.6715/0.6725 resistance
0.6685/0.6675 support
Strong U.S. economic and job data and a rise in the U.S. dollar index had limited the Australian dollar's gains. Looking back at recent Australian economic data showing growth, the Australian dollar is likely to rise as investors look for a pick-up in first-quarter growth. Stay focused on the Aussie adjustment to the current 0.66 level, or consider buying AUDUSD as low as possible. If the future time, looking at the United States and China economic growth, bullish the Australian dollar. On the other hand, investors assuming that the Australian and New Zealand dollars moved higher tomorrow morning after the reserve bank of New Zealand raised interest rates and was expected to confirm it was on hold.

Dollar to yen
109.95/110.05 resistance
109.55/109.45 support
Risk aversion in the United States cooled after January's economic and job data showed growth. U.S. Dow futures and global stock markets are expected to have limited losses. The dollar/yen is expected to support resistance at 109, above 110. If Dow futures continue their upward trend, the dollar could test 110.20 resistance against the yen. Believe that, this week under the United States economic data outlook, driving the global stock market, bullish USDJPY, test the 110.20 resistance.

USDCAD
1.3315/1.3325 resistance
1.3270/1.3260 support
Recent U.S. economic and job data beat expectations, easing fears of a slowdown in oil demand, and could help ease crude prices and boost the Canadian dollar. Tomorrow's EIA report and last week's change in crude oil inventories are important short-term factors for oil prices. If crude oil price breaks through resistance at $52.38, expect to see gains in the Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD keeps an eye on the 1.3325 resistance, looking below the 1.3260 support level.

US crude oil futures
52.35/52.60 resistance
49.55/49.35 support
U.S. strong job and economic data in Jan, it could lead to gains in crude oil prices. If OPEC’s cuts are confirmed, and if they are coordinated with other producers, they could stabilize prices and lead to a rebound. The EIA report and the change in crude oil inventories last week are worth watching. Technically, keep an eye on the $49.55 and $49.35 support levels, looking in the $51 or above.

Gold
1575/1577 resistance
1560/1558 support
Recent U.S. economic data has been strong, and Dow futures rise and gold cools amid risk aversion, it could be bearish for gold. Gold prices rose on concerns that Central Banks around the world continue to keep interest rates low and increase the money supply. On the other hand, non-farm data in the United States show average wages rising. Expectations for inflation and consumption data out of the U.S. this week provide an opportunity to bearish sentiment for gold prices.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
29415/29600 resistance
28855/28695 support
The U.S. payrolls and average wages rising, which could lift Dow futures. Short-term Dow futures move to adjust for gains, with a target of 28855 or 28695 support. If combined with U.S. data or good news on signs of economic recovery, Dow futures could test 29,600 resistance.

BTCUSD:
10000 / 10250 resistance
9550 / 9300 support U.S. job data rose much more than expected, it could foresee the Dow futures rebounded, back to record high 29400 levels. Keep watching the Dow future and global stock market indexes. If Dow fell, the bitcoin price could up. Otherwise, the bitcoin could fall.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Website: https://www.atfx.com/gm/en/?utm_sou...utm_campaign=other_media-buy_press-release_en

 

[Kelly Yeung]

NZDUSD: RBNZ Rate Meeting Might Send New Zealand Dollar Higher


Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Chief Market Strategist, ATFX

On February 12, the New Zealand central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), will host a rate meeting. The key interest rate is at 1%, and economists do not anticipate a change in interest. However, their language might change to less dovish as the annual inflation rate increased to 1.9% in the final quarter of 2019, and on February 4, the New Zealand unemployment rate improved to 4% from 4.2%.

As the labor market and inflation are at a good level, there will low pressure for the RBNZ to reduce interest rates at the February rate meeting. Further, the Q4 GDP growth was much higher than projected by the New Zealand central bank, the housing market is strong, and the New Zealand government recently announced a new spending plan of 12 billion NZD over the next four years.

If the RBNZ indeed turns less dovish, then the New Zealand dollar, NZDUSD, might see a boost. The issues for the currency are how the Coronavirus breakout will affect the economy.

Westpac Bank reported that the SARS virus breakout of 2003 only impacted the New Zealand GDP by 0.1%. However, in 2003 only 7% of NZ exports went to China and Hong Kong, today 28% of NZ exports go to China alone, and near 50% goes to Asia excluding Japan.

The most significant impact on the Chinese and New Zealand economies, should not be because of the loss of life. Instead, it will be due to the many million Chinese in lockdown, and currently not working or spending money, as they wait for the virus spread to end.

NZDUSD Technical Outlook

The New Zealand Dollar carved out a significant head and shoulders pattern from December to January. The mover lower was motived by the breakout of the coronavirus. Also, since then US economic data has improved with both the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Non-manufacturing indices beating expectations. The US APD report on February 5, showed that the US economy created 291,000 new jobs vs. the 156,000 projected. With the US economy improving, and the New Zealand economy probably coming under some pressure because of the coronavirus breakout, I suspect that the NZDUSD will remain under pressure.

The head and shoulders pattern has an unmet target of 0.6404, however, the RBNZ meeting might send the NZDUSD higher, so could news about coronavirus, which has been better in the last few days. However, as long as the price trades below the 0.6631 level, the trend in the NZDUSD will be downwards, and I suspect that traders might try to short-sell the pair in the 0.6550-0.6631 interval.

NZDUSD Ahead of RBNZ Rate Meeting

Website: https://www.atfx.com/gm/en/?utm_sou...utm_campaign=other_media-buy_press-release_en

 

[Kelly Yeung]

WILL US RETAIL NUMBERS FOR JANUARY SURPRISE THE MARKETS WITH FURTHER IMPROVEMENT?

The retail sales figures are a significant part of the economic data released by the US economy, and its release is one of the most influencing events in the market during the month. The importance of the retail sales report is that it is a good reflection of the current state of the US economy, especially for its consumption appetite, and as it is considered a significant measure of the inflationary pressure. Even though the data is not as vital as the monthly nonfarm payroll report, it remains on the top of data closely watched by the Federal Reserve while deciding the MonPol.

Retail sales rose by 0.3% in December, and it significantly affected the market expectations. Concurrently, the retail sales reading for November was revised to 0.3% from its prior figure of 0.2%.

The improvement was widespread, as in increase in sales was recorded in all categories but one – sales of cars and car parts dealers, which are considered to be volatile commodities by nature, as they decreased by (-1,3%) during the month. Among the remaining volatile groups, sales increased by 2.8% at petrol stations, 1.4% in building materials and garden equipment stores and 0.2% in food and beverage services.


Retail Sales Control Group, which exclude volatile components (gas, cars, building materials, food services and retails packaging) increased by 0.5%, slightly above of the median forecast by 0.4%. However, the previous month’s Retail Sales Control Group were revised to (-0.1%) from (+0.1%) in the previous reading.



Within the Control Group, the monthly changes ranged from 0.1% decrease in miscellaneous furniture and home furniture stores to 1.6% in clothing and accessories stores. Whereas, we noticed sales growth for non-chains retailers, which is usually a rapidly growing category, yet it is a limited increase of 0.2% for the month of December.

Nonetheless, what we can expect for January’s reading, following this poor performance in November - and what December’s data is revealing to us - that American consumers have qualitatively eased caution during the month of December. Despite this easing, a quick look on 2019 quarterly reading (Q4) for retail sales control group failed to the keep rapid pace with the of Q3 and Q2.

However, positive factors are strongly present; primarily, the growth in the labor market and the improvement in the average hourly earnings - which showed a growth of 3.1% in the last report issued on February 7, 2020 - as well as the improvement in US consumer confidence and the growth of employment opportunities and fixed income. All these factors, will drive the trend of consumption toward further improvement. We can expect Retail sales in the first month of 2020 to grow by 0.4%.



In addition to all of the above, we should not lose sight of the fact that the recent signing of the "phase one" of the trade agreement with China provides additional support for the optimistic situation. Well, at least in the short term. The deal, which cuts tariffs on various goods - which did take place after China announced tariffs reduction that was previously imposed on a group of American commodities and goods - should provide additional comfort to the American consumer for the near future.



What is Retail sales report?

The Data collected for the Retail sales report is based on 13 major types of retailers, ranging from good and beverage stores to gas stations.



However, it is extremely significant to pay close attention to the more volatile components of the data collected in this report. For example, the prices of cars, gas, and foodstuffs are strongly influenced by seasonality and the fundamental changes in the prices of raw materials. Also, among other factors - that must be taken into account when reviewing the retail sales report - are political instability, high oil prices, and even extreme weather conditions. As these factors may lead to a lower consumer confidence, which would translate to a decline in consumer spending.



Many data and sub-readings are included in the Retail sales report. Therefore, most traders focus their attention on couple of basic statistics. Their primary focus is directed on the key figure of "Advanced Retail Sales", along any revisions that might be issued for previous reports. It should be noted that analysts' expectations tend to incorporate more uncertainty during holiday periods, when consumer spending usually increases. Data release during these periods is often subject to major reviews.



The Retail Sales Control Group report remains an important indicator of investors and traders. It is the control group for all retail sales, except for car dealers and retailers of building materials, gas stations, office supplies stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered figure gives a more accurate method to measure consumer spending, which is a large component of US GDP.



Information provided by ATFX (AE) Head of Market Research: Ramy Abouzaid



Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091

Website: https://www.atfx.com/gm/en/?utm_sou...utm_campaign=other_media-buy_press-release_en

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

Website: https://www.atfx.com/gm/en/?utm_sou...utm_campaign=other_media-buy_press-release_en

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Feb 12

Personal opinions today:

Yesterday, ECB President presented the annual report and the federal reserve chairman gave testimony. Then, the Bank of England governor appeared at the hearing. They all comment that the interest rates are appropriate and it can keep the economy grow.

However, Fed Chairman Powell predicts U.S. growth forecasts were strong and he believed the Fed would consider raising rates more than cutting them for some time to come. The U.S. President immediately commented on comments by federal reserve chairman Powell, criticizing his comments for limited U.S. economic growth and depressing the upside for U.S. stocks.

This morning, the U.S. API reported a slight increase in crude oil inventories change, and the EIA is expected to report also a slight increase in crude oil inventories change this evening.

The New Zealand dollar rose in the morning after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, dispelling investor expectations of a rate cut. Believe that, the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar have the opportunity to reverse the decline, test upward resistance. Today, investors focus on Eurozone industrial output in December. Investors were most likely to watch federal reserve chairman Powell's testimony during US trading hours. If Powell says the Fed will not consider raising rates in the first half of the year, expect Dow futures and crude oil prices to rise, as well as European and commodity currencies. Recommended that, if Dow futures rise, gold and silver price could fall. Please pay attention to the evening federal reserve chairman Powell's testimony time, the global market volatility!

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * refers to the degree of importance

OPEC releases monthly oil market report **
09:00 RBNZ interest rate decision ***
10:00 Bank of New Zealand press conference ***
18:00 Eurozone industrial output in December **
23:00 Federal reserve chairman Powell testifies ***
23:30 EIA crude oil inventory change **

EURUSD
1.0935/1.0945 resistance
1.0890/1.0880 support
The Fed’s outlook for the U.S. economy and Fed chairman Powell sounded a dovish note but looked ahead to a rate hike. In contrast, ECB President looked ahead to the monetary policy that continues to ease policy, bearish for the Euro. Technically, the EURUSD note is limited to 1.0985 resistance, short-term resistance 1.0940. Faced with fundamentals, the Euro could continue to move lower against the dollar, with a chance to test last year's low of 1.0880. In addition, pay attention to the British pound fluctuations, indirect impact on the Euro.

Pound to dollar
1.2965/1.2985 resistance
1.2905/1.2885 support
The UK December data surprised markets. British pound broke resistance at $1.2955, as high as $1.2966. However, Bank of England governor Carney attended the hearing on monetary policy mentioned that its loose monetary policy would remain unchanged. In contrast, the Fed monetary policy, the dollar, limit the rise in the pound. If Fed chairman Powell testifies tonight and the dollar gains, the pound could test another 1.2905 or 1.2885 support. Technically, the key resistance level is 1.3000. If not over the resistance, the pound keeps downward.

Australian dollar
0.6745/0.6755 resistance
0.6710/0.6700 support
We suggested before that the Australian and New Zealand dollars would rise if the RBNZ remains interest rates, eliminating market expectations of a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to keep rising for some time to come as the fed keeps interest rates on hold. Technically, looking at the AUDUSD resistance 0.6755. If it break the resistance, it would be expected to test 0.6800. The NZ dollar is expected to follow the Australian dollar.

Dollar to yen
109.95/110.05 resistance
109.55/109.45 support
Dow Jones futures and global stocks fell only slightly. The USDJPY is expected to support resistance at 109, above 110. If Dow futures continue to rise, the USDJPY could test 110.20 resistance. Believe that the U.S. inflation data, bullish Dow future, indirect bullish USDJPY.

USDCAD
1.3315/1.3325 resistance
1.3270/1.3260 support
Crude oil inventories rose modestly, stabilizing crude prices. At present, the price of crude oil stopped falling and rose. The Fed has no plans to raise interest rates, limiting the rise of the dollar and the Canadian dollar. Technically, USDCAD keeps an eye on the 1.3325 resistance, looking below the 1.3260 support level.

US crude oil futures
52.35/52.60 resistance
49.55/49.35 support
Strong U.S. job and economic data in January, it could lead to gains in crude oil prices. OPEC planning output cuts. If OPEC convinced other producers, it could stabilize prices and lead to a rebound. It is worth watching the EIA report to see if it will lead to crude oil price volatility. Technically, keep an eye on the $49.55 and $49.35 support and key resistance levels of $50.80. If any good news from OPEC for the market, the price of crude oil could test $50.80 or up to $52.

Gold
1575/1577 resistance
1560/1558 support
Strong U.S. economic and job data bearish gold price. If Dow futures rise and gold falls as risk aversion cools. The U.S. will release inflation and consumption data in January, have an opportunity to be bearish on gold amid forecast growth. Technically, gold can focus on $1575 and $1577 resistance. Without a break of $1579, gold could still have a chance to test $1560 or $1558 support.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
29415/29550 resistance
28935/28870 support
Fed Chairman Powell's comments didn't boost Dow futures, which could adjust for gains in the short term. But with U.S. data expectations for tomorrow and Friday, Dow futures are expected to test the possibility of 29415 or 29,550 resistance. Short attention 28935 and 28870 support bits.

BTCUSD:
10550 / 10850 resistance
10050 / 9800 support
Dow futures rebounded, back to record high 29400 levels. Keep watching the Dow future and global stock market indexes. If Dow fell, the bitcoin price could up further. Otherwise, the bitcoin could fall.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Website: https://www.atfx.com/gm/en/?utm_sou...utm_campaign=other_media-buy_press-release_en

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

Website: https://www.atfx.com/gm/en/?utm_sou...utm_campaign=other_media-buy_press-release_en

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Feb 13

Personal opinions today:

Federal reserve chairman Powell said the Fed would not consider raising interest rates in the first half of the year, also U.S. economic growth. Dow futures, the U.S. dollar, and oil prices rose, while European and commodity currencies fell as Powell's comments boosted investor sentiment. But the Fed has no plans to raise rates, most of Central Banks around the world continue to keep their lower monetary policy, about the monetary easing. Gold and silver prices were hit by rising risk aversion, with gold at $1,565 and silver supported at $17.45.

Investors forecast the Germany Q4 GDP was flat, more likely to slow, bearish for the Euro and Swiss franc, and limited the rise in the pound. Separately, U.S. non-farm payrolls rose in January last week, with average hourly earnings rising. Investors expect the U.S. CPI to rise in January. At present, Dow futures and the dollar index to undertake investor expectations rose. Investors note that if the U.S. CPI comes in line tonight with expectations for just a 0.2%, claims for jobless benefits topped market expectations by 210,000 last week. Dow futures and the dollar should watch out for adjustments in case investors lose confidence to keep the U.S. retail sales for January and the Michigan consumer confidence index growth.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * refers to the degree of importance

14:30 French Q4 unemployment rate **
15:00 German final CPI rate for January ***
17:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report **
21:30 U.S. CPI monthly rate for January ***
21:30 U.S. jobless claims change***
The next day 01:45 Fed Kaplan speaks **

Euro
1.0910/1.0920 resistance
1.0845/1.0835 support
The federal reserve chairman has a good outlook for U.S. economic growth. In contrast, the ECB's monetary policy continues to ease. Investors' lack of confidence in German and Eurozone economic data bearish for the Euro. Technically, the Euro is currently limited to 1.0940 resistance to the dollar. The Euro is likely to continue its downward trend against the dollar in the face of weak economic performance in the Germany Inflation and GDP declined. The Euro fell and broke the last year's low of 1.0880 and is headed further downward, with a 250% dip and 1.0810 support. However, the Euro could recoup losses if U.S. CPI only inlines or under with expectations. Also, the U.S. jobless claims beat market expectations last week, Euro would test 1.09 level.

Pound to dollar
1.2975/1.2985 resistance
1.2905/1.2895 support
Investors are watching British and the European Union discuss a Brexit deal. Technically, after falling to a three-month low at the start of the week, the pound rebounded on comments from the Fed chairman that there was no interest rate hike, and the pound tested a key resistance level of 1.3000 to limit gains after approaching the 10-day average. Fundamental analysis, the U.S. CPI growth expectations, dollar strength, bearish the pound.

Australian dollar
0.6745/0.6755 resistance
0.6710/0.6700 support
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged, dispelling market expectations of a rate cut. Recall that the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates unchanged earlier this month. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have rebounded recently. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to continue to rise on the belief that the federal reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the first half of the year. But pay attention to the U.S. inflation data tonight, indirectly bearish the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.

Dollar to yen
110.10/110.20 resistance
109.75/109.65 support
Japanese domestic commodity prices rose in January, more than market expectations, bullish yen. After the data, the yen was supported and the dollar fell from the 110 level against the yen. But the dollar is likely to remain at 110 against the yen, with U.S. CPI for January and jobless claims for last week on investors' minds, bullish the dollar index and Dow futures, bearish the yen. If Dow futures continue to rise, the dollar/yen could test 110.20 resistance. Investors are waiting for the U.S.CPI tonight.

USDCAD
1.3260/1.3270 resistance
1.3220/1.3210 support
Crude oil inventories rose modestly, stabilizing oil prices. Moreover, the Fed chairman said the Fed had no plans to raise rates in the first half of the year, and the Canadian dollar was in line with recent estimates in this analysis. USDCAD back to 1.3240 from 1.33 level. Technically, the USDCAD broke the 1.3260 support, which is now the reference for the resistance level. The U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar could trade in the 1.3165 support range if crude breaks $52.

US crude oil futures
52.35/52.60 resistance
49.55/49.35 support
More recently, OPEC has offered to cut production, which could stabilize prices and lead to a rebound if it gets support from other producers. Crude oil prices were already up before today's EIA report. If the EIA energy report indicates a sharp increase in crude oil demand forecasts, it is believed to boost oil prices. Otherwise, the price of crude oil falls. Stay on the sidelines until the $52 breakout.

Gold
1573/1575 resistance
1565/1563 support
U.S. economic data strength, Dow futures rose, gold as risk aversion cooled, limiting the price of gold, even more bearish. Expectations for U.S. inflation and consumption growth forecasts over the next two days, especially the U.S. CPI for January tonight and limited gold price upward. Technically, the gold price can focus on $1573 and $1575 resistance. Without a break above $1579, the gold price could still test $1560 support.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
29550/29720 resistance
28935/28870 support
Fed Chairman Powell's comments boosted Dow futures. Tonight, U.S.release inflation and retail sales figures, which are expected to show growth. Before the data release, Dow futures upward and it was testing the 29,550 resistance successfully. But if U.S. inflation and retail sales data below market expectations finally, Dow futures could correction the uptrend. Technically, Dow future important support bits, 28935 or 28870.

BTCUSD:
10550 / 10850 resistance
10050 / 9800 support
Dow futures rebounded, testing 29550 resistance. Keep watching the Dow future and global stock market indexes after the U.S. inflation data. If Dow fell after the data, the bitcoin price could keep up further. Otherwise, the bitcoin could fall.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Website: https://www.atfx.com/gm/en/?utm_sou...utm_campaign=other_media-buy_press-release_en

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Crude Oil Prices Could Bounce as Coronavirus Panic Settles
By Alejandro Zambrano, Chief Market Strategist ATFX

Coronavirus Spread Slows

In late January, the financial markets reacted forcefully to the news of the Coronavirus. Most of the damage to markets occurred in the China stock indices, such as the Shanghai Composite, which slid by 13.32% from January 21 to February 4. However, Crude oil prices such as WTI also slid as traders and investors sold because of fear of an economic slowdown in China. In this article, we will try to explain what may happen with crude oil prices using the outcome of the 2003 SARS virus breakout.



The hurt to the Chinese economy, will not come from the number of people infected by the new virus, instead because of the about sixty million Chinese citizens that are under lockdown as the government tries to limit the virus spread. As people can’t go to work, they can’t spend money or produce, and extensions to the Chinese New Year holiday has occurred a few times already to avoid people congregating. Most recently, media reports say that Chinese children will not be back at school until March 1.



The effect of the coronavirus has had a strong impact on crude oil prices as China is the world's biggest oil and natural gas importer. They consume about 25% of the total world crude oil consumption, according to Jude Clemente, in a Forbes article.



As Chinese economic growth has halted on people not being able to work the demand for crude oil and other energy prices have declined, causing energy prices to slide. From January 22, when news about the coronavirus started to spread, and more information about the number of confirmed cases was shared WTI prices slid by 14.26%, to reach a low of $49.3 at the start of February.



The price declined as investors prepared themselves for lower demand, and on February 7 a Financial Times report said Chinese importers are threatening to cancel up 70% of February seaborne imports of liquefied natural gas as the energy demand had collapsed, and as the Chinese ports struggle as staff are not back to work. The move caused liquefied natural gas prices to slide to their lowest levels ever. Also, on February 12, OPEC, in their monthly outlook said that oil consumption would increase by 990,000 barrels a day in 2020, this figure is lower by 200,000 b/d than OPEC had previously estimated.



However, despite the negative news, crude oil prices have stabilized.

Crude oil prices stabilize on lower virus spread



Crude oil breached the June 5 low on February 3, which was the same day the Shanghai Composite opened lower by 8.5% after being closed for the Chinese New Year on January 23.

The break to the June 5 low, triggered a large rectangle pattern that had been forming since May 2019 and is made up by the June low of $50.54, and the May high of $63.79. As we can see in the image below the price has several touchpoints and the break to the June low triggered a bearish rectangle pattern, which has a target of $37.29. However, much like the Shanghai Composite, crude oil prices did not add to their losses and it now looks more like the break to the June low was a false move. If the price decline below the June 5 low indeed was false then the price might be able to claw back 50% of its losses from the 2020 high of $65.75; this means that the crude oil price could reach the $57.50 level.



Weekly crude oil price chart

Why did crude oil prices bounce?

As in 2003 and the SARS epidemic, the Hong Kong stock index reached a low around the same time as the spread of the SARS growth was at its highest. With the 2020 Coronavirus crisis, the focus has been on the Shanghai composite as China is more affected than any other country, and it looks like the market bottomed out in early February when the growth rate of the Coronavirus spread reached its high.



As an example, eight days before the bottom in the Shanghai composite and crude oil markets, the daily growth rate of the virus was 28.19%. However, eight days post the bottom in the market, the growth rate has been 10%, and from February 9 to 11, the daily growth rate has been just 5.5%.



Conclusions

The growth rate of the virus has slowed dramatically, and if history repeats itself, and the coronavirus crisis does note flare up again, then there is a chance that the bearish breakdown in WTI crude oil prices was false. If this indeed proves correct, then crude oil prices may have formed a low in February and the price could try to reach $57.50 in the next few months. However, if the price slides below the 49.93 level, which is a level just below the February low, then I will consider the breakout from the rectangle as valid and the price might be able to reach the pattern target of $39.29.

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