Daily Analysis

[Zforex]

EUR/USD Volatility Follows PMI Data
The EUR/USD had strong volatility yesterday after PMI data while still hovering around the support at the 200MA and the 1.0850, waiting for today's GDP data for direction. The next support is at the 1.0800 level and the next resistance is at 1.0900.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1100	1.1000	1.0900	1.0850	1.0800	1.0750

GBP/USD Stalls in Price Range with Growing Uncertainty
The GBP/USD is experiencing range-bound movements due to increasing uncertainty at the start of the new year. The next resistance if the rebound continues is at 1.2800 while the 50MA will be the next support.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3100	1.2930	1.2800	1.2600	1.2500	1.2400

USD/JPY Dependent on Dollar Movements
The USD/JPY pair is making some corrections but limited as it will depend on US dollar movements for today. The next support is at 146.50. If a breakout occurs, the next target is 150.00.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
152.00	150.00	148.35	146.50	144.80	144.00

Gold Slips Following US PMI Data
Gold is falling today after yesterday's US PMI data where markets believe US economic resilience and rates will be held for longer. The short-term bearish trend is still active. If it continues to decrease, the next level will be at 2006 again.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2070	2052	2021	2006	1979	1960

Crude Oil Initiates Reversal, Next Resistance at 78
Recent market trends indicate a potential reversal in oil prices, with the commodity poised for an upward movement. The next significant resistance level stands near the 200-day moving average, hovering around 78 and the support level remains steady at 70.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
81	78	74	70	68	64.9

 

[Zforex]

EUR/USD Breaks 200 MA and Support, Eyes Long-Term Bullish Trend
The EUR/USD is breaking the 200 MA and the support level and now moving towards the next target range of 1.0780-1.0750, aligning with the lower parallel of the current long-term bullish trend.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1000	1.0900	1.0850	1.0780	1.0700	1.0650

GBP/USD is at Uncertainty, Eyes Support at 1.2800 and 50MA
The GBP/USD continuing its price range movements observed since the start of the new year amid rising uncertainty. The next support level is at 1.2600, with the 50-day moving average (50MA) acting as additional support.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3100	1.2930	1.2800	1.2600	1.2500	1.2400

JPY/USD Eyes on 150.00 Breakout from 148.35-146.50
The pair is fluctuating between 148.35 and 146.50. Should a breakout occur, the next target level is anticipated to be 150.00.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
152.00	150.00	148.35	146.50	144.80	144.00

Gold Rebounds on Risk-Off: Eyes Set on 200 MA at 2038
Gold is rebounding today due to risk-off sentiment. The next resistance and target is the 200 MA on the 4H chart, which is at 2038. Additionally, it is also the upper parallel of the current short-term down channel.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2070	2052	2038	2006	1975	1980

Oil Hits Resistance at 78, Awaits Confirmation

Oil has hit resistance at the 78 area, waiting for confirmation to continue to the next target at 81.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
84	81	78	75	70	68

 

[thomassup]

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[Zforex]

The EUR/USD Support Level Targets the Next Range: 1.0780 – 1.0750
The EUR/USD is approaching the support level and heading towards the next target range between 1.0780-1.0750. This aligns with the lower parallel of the current long-term bullish trend.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1000	1.0900	1.0850	1.0780	1.0700	1.0650

GBP/USD in Uncertainty, Eyes 1.2600 Support
The GBP/USD continuing its price range movements observed since the start of the new year amid rising uncertainty. The next support level is at 1.2600, with the 50-day moving average (50MA) acting as additional support.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3100	1.2930	1.2800	1.2600	1.2500	1.2400

USD/JPY Fluctuates: Breakout Potential to 150.00
The pair is fluctuating between 148.35 and 146.50. Should a breakout occur, the next target level is anticipated to be 150.00. Dollar performance will impact the direction.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
152.00	150.00	148.35	146.50	144.80	144.00

Gold is in Reverse, Targeting 200MA
Gold is continuing its bullish reversal movement. The next resistance and target is the 200 MA on the 4H chart, which is at 2038. Additionally, it is also the upper parallel of the current short-term down channel.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2070	2052	2038	2006	1975	1980

Oil Awaits Confirmation at 100MA

Oil reached the 100MA as the resistance level before correcting, waiting for confirmation to continue to the next target at 81.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
84	81	78	75	70	68

 

[Zforex]

EUR/USD Nears Support at Down Parallel, Aiming for 1.0780-1.0750
The EUR/USD is hovering at the support level where the down parallel of the long bullish channel and heading towards the next target range between 1.0780-1.0750. This aligns with the lower parallel of the current long-term bullish trend.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1000	1.0900	1.0850	1.0780	1.0700	1.0650

GBP/USD Faces Uncertainty, Eyes on BoE Decision
The GBP/USD has been experiencing price range movements since the start of the new year, and there is rising uncertainty. The markets have been relatively quiet in the past few days as they await the Bank of England's decision. The next support level is at 1.2600, and the 50-day moving average (50MA) is providing additional support.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3100	1.2930	1.2800	1.2600	1.2500	1.2400

USD/JPY Eyes 150.00 Target, Dollar Performance Key Factor
The currency pair fluctuates between 146.50 and 148.35. The next target level is expected to be 150.00 if a breakout occurs, which will be influenced by the performance of the dollar.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
152.00	150.00	148.35	146.50	144.80	144.00

Gold's Bullish Reversal Persists, Aiming for 200 MA Resistance

Gold's bullish reversal continues with the next resistance and target being the 200 MA on the 4H chart, located at 2038. This also represents the upper parallel of the current short-term down channel.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2070	2052	2038	2006	1975	1980

Oil Tests 100MA Resistance, Pauses for Correction
Oil reached the 100MA as the resistance level before correcting, waiting for confirmation to continue to the next target at 81.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
84	81	78	75	70	68

 

[Zforex]

EUR/USD Faces Dollar Strength, Eyes Support at 1.0780-1.0740

The EUR/USD is currently under pressure from a strengthening dollar and is approaching its next support level at 1.0780-1.0740, followed by the 100MA. The downward trend may continue if today's inflation data disappoints.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1000	1.0900	1.0850	1.0780	1.0750	1.0650

GBP/USD Dips, Eyes Support at 1.2600
The GBP/USD has declined and the nearest support level is at 1.2600, while the resistance level is at 1.2800. Today's BOE meeting could result in significant market fluctuations.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3100	1.2930	1.2800	1.2600	1.2500	1.2400

JPY/USD at Support: Trading at 146.50
The pair is currently trading at the support level of 146.50. The narrowing difference in yields is giving an advantage to the yen. If the actual support level is broken, prices may decline towards 144.80.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
152.00	150.00	148.35	146.50	144.80	144.00

Gold's Bullish Run: Targets Set at 2070 and 2090
Gold's bullish movement continues where the price is at the resistance level of 2055-60. The next target will be at the 2070 and 2090.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2070	2055-60	2038	2038	2006	1975

Oil Bounces at Support, Eyes 100MA Resistance
After a correction, oil found support at 75 and is expected to challenge its 100MA resistance level. If the resistance level is broken, it could lead to strong bullish movements.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
84	81	78	75	70	68

 

[Zforex]

Global Financial Markets React to Central Bank Signals and Economic Data

In early European trading, the U.S. dollar appreciated after the Federal Reserve indicated that a rate cut in March would likely be earlier. However, the Fed also expressed willingness to consider lowering rates later, depending on greater assurance that inflation will revert to its 2% target. Consequently, the likelihood of a March rate reduction, as implied by traders, has decreased from 59% before the Fed's announcement to 38%, a significant drop from the 89% expectation a month earlier.
The euro experienced a decline, reaching a seven-week drop against the dollar, ahead of the flash eurozone inflation data for January. This forthcoming data, anticipated to reveal further deceleration in both headline and core inflation from December, may apply additional pressure on the euro. Meanwhile, preliminary GDP figures for the fourth quarter indicated a marginal 0.1% year-over-year expansion in the eurozone's economy, with no growth compared to the preceding quarter. Although these figures surpassed initial forecasts, they remain disappointingly low.
The Bank of England (BoE) is anticipated to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5.25% during its upcoming policy meeting, dubbed “Super Thursday” due to the simultaneous release of the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and a press conference by Governor Andrew Bailey. The BoE is expected to continue its tight monetary policy, emphasizing the theme of “higher interest rates for longer” and defying anticipations of early rate cuts, especially in light of a surprising increase in December's annual inflation rate.
A recent hawkish shift by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) bolstered the yen, as did a decrease in U.S. Treasury bond yields, which narrowed the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, further encouraging yen investors. The BoJ's January 2024 meeting summary suggested maintaining monetary easing while exploring options for exiting negative interest rates.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and economic challenges in China may support gold prices, offering a safe haven during times of uncertainty. The ongoing decline in U.S. Treasury yields could also lessen losses for gold, which does not yield interest.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices face constraints due to disappointing Chinese manufacturing data. The National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Manufacturing PMI for January remained below expectations, marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction in China's manufacturing sector, thereby applying downward pressure on WTI prices. The market awaits the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for January, hoping for insights into China's economic health, given its status as a major crude importer.

 

[Zforex]

Dollar Dips Amid Tech Rally and Interest Rate Speculations

The dollar experienced a decline across the board on Friday, influenced by strong earnings from major technology companies on Wall Street, which spurred investor interest in higher-risk assets. Market participants were also looking forward to the release of U.S. employment data later in the day, keen to understand the potential timeline for the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates. The awaited nonfarm payrolls report, set for release on Friday, follows closely on the heels of the Fed's latest policy announcement, which saw interest rates held constant, aligning with expectations. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell challenged the anticipation of rate reductions in March.
In January, the Eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) recorded a slight decrease to 2.8% year over year, down from 2.9% in December, matching market predictions. Additionally, core inflation in January decreased to 3.3% year over year from 3.4%, surpassing the market's expectation of 3.2%. These developments have led investors to believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) may decrease interest rates in April, contributing to the Euro's recent decline.
The Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee has decided to keep interest rates at a 15-year high of 5.25%. Governor Andrew Bailey stated that the BoE needs further proof that inflation is trending towards the 2% goal before considering a reduction in interest rates. Persistent inflation and wage growth within the UK economy could lead the BoE to maintain elevated rates for a longer period than the ECB.
The Japanese Yen gained support after the Bank of Japan expressed confidence last week in achieving its inflation target, suggesting an upcoming shift away from negative interest rates in its March or April meetings.
Gold prices stayed above $2,050 an ounce on Friday, heading for a near 2% increase for the week as both the dollar and Treasury yields dipped, fueled by robust expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut within the year. These expectations remained strong despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stating that a March rate cut is "not the base case" and emphasizing the intent to maintain current rates until inflation consistently approaches the 2% target. The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March has sharply decreased from over 70% a month ago to 38%.
Oil prices saw an uptick on Friday after OPEC+ opted to maintain its current oil production policy. Nonetheless, the benchmarks are anticipated to close the week lower, affected by unverified reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

 

[Zforex]

USD Strength Suggests Continued Bearish Trend
The EUR/USD is falling as the next support levels are at 1.0750 and 1.0650. Considering the strength of the US dollar, the bearish trend may continue.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1000	1.0900	1.0850	1.0750	1.0650	1.0500

GBP/USD Follows Euro in Decline
The GBP/USD has fallen in a similar fashion to the Euro due to the strength of the Dollar, with the current support level at 1.2600 and the next level at 1.2500, which is close to the 100MA.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3100	1.2930	1.2800	1.2600	1.2500	1.2300

USD/JPY Tests Resistance at 148.60 on Dollar Rebound

USD/JPY returned to its resistance level at 148.60 after the dollar rebounded. The actual bullish short-term trend is solid but needs further support from the dollar to continue upward.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
152.00	150.00	148.60	146.50	144.80	144.00

Gold Falls on Treasury Yield Rebound
Gold is falling due to the rebound in Treasury yields. The next support level is at 2006. Gold is currently range-bound with resistance at 2055-2060 and support at 2006.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2090	2070	2055-60	2006	1975	1965

Oil Faces Selloff Amid Last Month's Volatility
Oil is experiencing a selloff and may continue to drop due to last month's price volatility. The next support levels are at 70 and 68. The market outlook is bearish.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
84	81	78	70	68	65

 

[Zforex]

EUR/USD Breaks Key Support at 1.0750
The EUR/USD has broken the important support level of 1.0750 in two consecutive sessions due to strong selling pressure. This indicates a bearish trend where the US Dollar is gaining strength and may continue to do so, with a possible correction before that. The next support level is at 1.0650.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1000	1.0900	1.0850	1.0750	1.0650	1.0500

GBP/USD Corrects After Two Selloff Sessions
The GBP/USD is currently undergoing a small correction after two strong selloff sessions. It is currently at the 1.2500 area, and the outlook remains bearish. The next level to watch out for is at 1.2300.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2930	1.2800	1.2600	1.2500	1.2300	1.2470

USD/JPY Breaks Resistance at 148.35

The pair is breaking the resistance level at 148.35. The actual bullish short-term trend is solid but needs further support from the dollar to continue upward.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
152.00	150.00	148.35	146.50	144.80	144.00

Gold Sells Off Amid Dollar and Treasury Yield Increase
Gold is experiencing a selloff due to an increase in the dollar and treasury yields. It is currently range-bound, with resistance at 2055-2060 and support at 2006.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2090	2070	2055-60	2006	1975	1965

Oil Prices Inch Up Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Oil prices experienced slight gains amid volatile trading as geopolitical tensions escalated once again. The next support level is identified at $70, with resistance expected at $78.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
84	81	78	70	68	65