Daily Forex Price Action Commentary by The Forex Guy

TheForexGuy

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Hey traders,

Much respect to Forex Peace Army crew for becoming an authority in many aspects of the Forex industry. I've started this thread with intention of sharing my views/commentary/analysis of various Forex currency pairs with the traders here.

A little bit about me, I've been trading for over 6 years trading exclusively with price action trading strategies. I had my fair share of jumping from system to system, but I found my footing fairly quickly with price action trading.

To trading with "price action" essentially means to make trading decisions from the data you have from the raw price charts. Mainly utilizing support & resistance, trend lines, candlestick analysis and I throw in mean value analysis in with my trading methodology also.

Let's jump straight into it.

A double Inside Day setup on the GBPUSD daily chart is the perfect catalyst for a potent breakout... :cool:

gbpusd.png

The market has just broken back above an important level on the daily chart and is now holding as support. The market has been tightly churing for the last two days creating the cascading inside day pattern.

A general rule of thumb is, the longer consolidation occurs, the more severe the breakout is. On the intraday chars, Inside days generally look like ranges or price squeeze patterns like triangles and wedges.

If the market breaks the high of the previous inside day, long positions could be considered. Watch out for breakout traps, where the market clearly breaks out of the pattern and then collapses back in on itself. If this should occur, we would most likely see severe bearish follow through.
 

TheForexGuy

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gbpjpy.png

Looking at the GBPJPY price action for the last candle of the week. We've got an indecision candle at the range top on the daily chart with a negative close on the body, giving the candle a nice bearish tone. If price breaks the low of the Indecision Candle then short positions could be considered with the range bottom potential targets.

Last time this level was tested a bearish rejection candle formed and seen very nice bearish follow through to the range bottom.

Keep in mind it is NFP tonight, and we all know what that means.

The Forex Guy
 
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TheForexGuy

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Looking at the GBPJPY price action for the last candle of the week. We've got an indecision candle at the range top on the daily chart with a negative close on the body, giving the candle a nice bearish tone. If price breaks the low of the Indecision Candle then short positions could be considered with the range bottom potential targets.

Last time this level was tested a bearish rejection candle formed and seen very nice bearish follow through to the range bottom.

Keep in mind it is NFP tonight, and we all know what that means.

gbpjpy breakout.jpg

As anticipated we did see some bearish price action as the market broke out of the Indecision Candle and moved away from the range top. The bearish response from this setup was quite strong, and today heading into London trading hours we're seeing signs of continued bearish price action

We will most likely see the market move down lower to re test the range bottom.

The AUDNZD broke out of a double inside day setup last week and produced a nice move...

audnzd double inside day breakout.jpg

Watching the AUDNZD daily chart as price heads toward a bullish hot spot within the uptrend. We're basically looking for the old resistance to hold as new support and create a swing level within the trend. It's here Ill be looking to take advantage of this uptrend and position on long if any bullish price action reversal signals form.

The Forex Guy
 

TheForexGuy

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Watching the AUDNZD daily chart as price heads toward a bullish hot spot within the uptrend. We're basically looking for the old resistance to hold as new support and create a swing level within the trend. It's here Ill be looking to take advantage of this uptrend and position on long if any bullish price action reversal signals form.

The Forex Guy


As expected the AUDNZD market respects old resistance level as a new swing level by printing bullish pin bar...

audnzd.jpg

This setup on the AUDNZD daily chart is a 'text book' perfect price action buying opportunity.

Also waiting for the AUDUSD to pull back to a support level a drop a buy signal...

waiting to buy the audusd.jpg

AUDUSD looks like it's heading down to retest the breakout level (the old resistance), but I am skeptical about buying here. I would like to see a deeper retracement into the mean value and see a bullish price action signal form off the previous level. The deeper the retracement, the better price we can position into the trend.

The Forex Guy
 

TheForexGuy

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As expected the AUDNZD market respects old resistance level as a new swing level by printing bullish pin bar...


This setup on the AUDNZD daily chart is a 'text book' perfect price action buying opportunity.

The Forex Guy

The AUDNZD market moved as I forecasted, but unfortunately I was taken out of the long position :(

audnzd trade update.jpg

The FOMC dropped some bombs during their announcement and caused a sell off on the AUD. As a result of the news volatility my trade stop was hit and I was taken out of the trade. But after the market stabilized from the news 'noise' the market exploded higher from this key turning point within the trend.

It's a shame, but sometimes the news does annoying things like this to your trading and there really isn't much you can do about it without compromising your trading integrity.

I'll just have to sit this one out and wait for the next bullish price action signal.

The Forex Guy
 

TheForexGuy

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Watch the EURUSD this week for a buy signal after corrections into support...

eurusd.jpg

After the explosive rally last week on EURUSD, we need to wait for any bullish price action reversal signals form off key support levels to consider pulling the trigger for long trades. Just have to watch and see how the market reacts when the level is tested.

Alternatively, if the support level does not hold, we can wait for short signals to form off the bottom side as the market tests the level a resistance.

The Forex Guy
 

TheForexGuy

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nzdusd.jpg

Looking at the NZDUSD chart today, price is now wedged between a critical resistance level and a the mean value, which has been acting has dynamic support.

Generally in these situations the momentum of the market, and the mean value generally prevail. So we're anticipating a breakout to the upside here. Also, the last two days have demonstrated rejection of lower prices reinforcing our bias to an upside breakout.

Waiting for the price action to break the highs of these candles before considering long positions. A close above this level will pave the way for much higher prices.

The Forex Guy
 

TheForexGuy

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eurusd flat markets.jpg

A lot of quiet markets this week ahead of the Easter break. Most weekly candles showing indecisions, EURUSD one of the biggest sufferers of the low volatility.

Despite the low price action, the market has clearly demonstrated rejection of moves into higher prices, so we may see some continues bearish movement next week when normal trading resumes.

Have a great time over the Easter break though guys and enjoy your time with loved ones.

The Forex Guy
 

TheForexGuy

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I hope everyone had a relaxing Easter break and enjoyed the time off. The markets should pick back up now as things return to normal. One market I am watching is the GBPNZD cross pair.

gbpnzd.jpg

This bad boy has just broken out of consolidation, and breached a resistance containment line as price exploded into new highs. We've got a bullish bias on this chart now and are now targeting bullish price action signal that do develop to get in long with the fresh upward momentum.

The best play here is to wait for the market to weaken and re-test the old resistance level and let bullish price action confirm it as new support. This will create a new swing level, and it's here we should jump on any bullish signal that develops.

The Forex Guy
 

fxstrategist

Corporal
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The AUDUSD could give us a bounce to the upside from the 0.9242 level before it reaches the 0.9200 level from where there is a higher probability of a change in direction to the upside.
 
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