Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, USD/JPY breakout aiming for Fibonacci targets

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD downtrend continues lower after making a retracement and breaking support (dotted green). A bearish 123 (purple) becomes more likely when price is able to break below the 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green) and is building a bearish 3rd wave (orange). Once the wave 3 is completed then a slow and gradual wave 4 correction is expected.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD failed to break the horizontal resistance (red). The broken resistance (dotted red) has now turned into a potential support level in the development of wave C (pink). The triangle pattern seems to be confirming the corrective mode at the moment.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to have made an ABC (grey) correction within the wave 4 retracement (green) as long as price stays above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A break of the resistance trend line (red) of the triangle helps confirm the start of wave 5 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the resistance (dotted red) of the contracting triangle chart pattern. Price is now moving higher as part of the wave 5 (purple).

1 hour



The USD/JPY broke above resistance (red) and price is now moving towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (purple).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD breakout alert, EUR/USD bounce at 50% Fibonacci

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD retraced to the top of the downtrend channel, which is a strong resistance zone and a potential continuation spot within wave C (blue) or wave 3 (purple). A bearish 123 (purple) becomes more likely when price is able to break below the 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is breaking the counter trend line (dotted green), which could mark the bearish breakout within wave 5 (orange). A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave "4 vs 3" and above the trend line (red) make a wave 4 (orange) less likely.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is testing the resistance level (red) and Fibonacci levels within a wave C (pink).

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke a resistance trend line (dotted orange) after bouncing at the 50% Fibonacci support level as expected in previous wave analysis. The current bullish momentum could be a 12345 (grey) unless price breaks below the high of wave 1 (grey) and support levels (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the resistance (dotted red) of the contracting triangle chart pattern. Price is now moving higher as part of the wave 5 (purple). Price has a strong confluence of resistance nearby between 111.50 and 112.

1 hour



The USD/JPY hooked back to a typical 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as part of wave 4 (brown) and is bouncing higher as part of a wave 5 (brown).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD, USD/JPY develop reversals with huge momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour


The EUR/USD has slightly broken above the resistance trend line (dotted red), which could indicate the potential for a bigger correction. Price has stopped at the 23.6% Fibonacci level of wave "4 vs 3" and the wave count now expects a bigger correction to the 38.2% Fib unless price breaks the bottom of wave C (blue).

1 hour



The EUR/USD is labelled as an ABC (green) and price has stopped at the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave B (green). A break above the resistance trend lines would confirm the potential for price to rally for a wave C (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD failed to break the horizontal resistance level (red) and most likely has completed the wave C (pink). A bigger reversal is expected when considering the strong bearish momentum of wave 1 (blue).

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke support trend lines (dotted green) after failing to break resistance (orange/red). The hook back after the break has been labelled as a wave 2 (pink) and price could still be in a wave 3 (pink) impulse.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY failed to reach the resistance (orange) level. The strong bearish momentum is suggesting that wave 5 (blue) has been completed. Due to the 5 bullish waves the larger degree has been labelled wave 1 (blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY momentum could be explained via wave 3s. A wave 4 should be a shallow correction and relatively large as the wave 2 retracements were deep and short.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Roman Sadowski]

My view on USDJPY

The market rocketed lower to 10906 today, a nice 180 point decline
And just what the doctor ordered in terms of setting up the trade I have in mind.

I had been looking for a decline into the 10880 region to finish out wave 'c' black.
And that action in turn, finishes out our wave '2' blue.

This is the point I have been waiting for the last month or so now.

If I am correct in my wave count,
Then we are due a huge rally soon in Usdjpy.

Todays decline filled out that expanded flat correction nicely.

Lets do the math:
The typical wave length ratio between waves a and c in an expanded flat correction is 1.62:1
A Fibonacci ratio.
Wave 'a' travelled 150 points so
150 * 1.62 = 243.
So far wave 'c' has travelled 240 points top to bottom.
I will call that enough done to start to look up.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD divergence causes breakout above downtrend channel

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the downtrend channel (dotted red), which is partly caused by the divergence between the bottoms (purple). The break above the resistance trend lines (dotted) could face struggle at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple).

1 hour



The EUR/USD made a bullish bounce at the wave B (green) as expected and is rallying towards the Fibonacci levels, which prove to be resistance. If the price reaction at the resistance Fibonacci levels is behaving correctively, then this could increase the chance of a larger wave 4 (purple) correction after completion of the ABC (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is showing strong bearish momentum which has been labelled as a wave 1 (blue). Price seems to be ready for retrace of a wave 2 (blue), which typically sees a deep Fibonacci retracement.

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke the expanding triangle (purple) which was built as part of wave 4 (pink). The bearish breakout was part of wave 5 (pink), which could be completed now. Bullish momentum candles could confirm the start of an ABC zigzag as part of wave 2 (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the support trend line (dotted green) as expected due to the strong bearish momentum candles. Price is now building a bearish impulse but it could be part of a bigger ABC correction (blue) within potential wave 2 (purple).

1 hour



The USD/JPY completed an impulsive wave 3 (brown) and the wave 4 (brown) pulled back to the 38.2% Fib. Wave 5 (brown) could still fall a bit lower and hit the 50% Fibonacci support level of the 4 hour chart before being completed.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD waves simply explain roller coaster moves

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (purple) as expected. This bullish move is most likely one piece of a larger corrective zone, which has been marked as a WXY (green). A break below the bottom and 100% Fibonacci level would increase the likelihood that the wave 4 (purple) has been completed.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke the support trend lines (dotted green) after bouncing at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Price made an ABC (orange) correction and is respecting the 61.8% support Fib, which could be a bouncing spot for wave Y (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a small corrective pattern (red/green) after hitting the 23.6% Fibonacci level. A break above resistance could start the correction within wave 2 (blue).

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be respecting the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave "B vs A". A break below the support trend line would indicate that the wave 1 (blue) is not yet completed.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the support trend line (dotted green) as expected due to the strong bearish momentum candles. Price is now at the 50% Fibonacci level which could be a bouncing spot. The same potential support could take place at other Fib levels.

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to be extending the wave 5 (brown) with 5 smaller waves (blue).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Massive price action waves shake Forex market

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD showed a strong bullish bounce last week Friday. The bullish price action confirmed the development of an ABC correction (purple), which has completed a wave X (brown) at the 50% Fibonacci support level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD bullish momentum is very strong which makes a bullish continuation likely via an ABC zigzag (orange). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (orange) are potential support areas.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD showed a bullish rally as well, but price quickly turned back in a bearish mode when price hit the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. Price needs to break the support trend line (green) before a wave 3 could continue. A push below the 161.8% Fibonacci target of 3 vs 1 is needed before the wave 3 (blue) is confirmed.

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted red) and made a wave C (pink) rally within wave 2 (blue). Price quickly reverted and is building an impulse within wave 3 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY fell quickly in a very bearish impulse and has now arrived at the 78.6% Fibonacci support level. A break below the 100% level of 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave 2 (purple).

1 hour



The USD/JPY needs to break above the resistance trend line (red) before the chances increase that a wave 2 (purple) has been completed. The strong bearish momentum has been labelled a wave 3 (brown) and the Fibonacci levels could be a turning spot for a wave 4 retracement (brown).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Strong bullish price action remains leading factor on EUR/USD

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD showed strong bullish price action, which increases the chance of a bullish ABC zigzag (orange).

1 hour



The EUR/USD retraced back to the 23.6% Fibonacci level of wave B (orange) and could now be building a channel (red/blue). A break below the channel could indicate that price is retracing back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD bounced at the long-term support trend line (green). Price is now approaching a resistance zone (red). A break above it could see price rally within a wave 2 (blue). A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave 2.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is probably seeing a development of an expanded wave 2 (blue) via a WXY (pink). The wave count has been changed because wave X stayed above the 138.2% Fibonacci level and due to the strong bullish correction which has taken price to the 61.8% Fib of 'Y vs W'.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY wave 2 (purple) has been marked as complete because price is trying to break above the resistance trend line (red). A break above this trend line (red) and resistance zone (orange) could see price rally for a wave 3 (purple).

1 hour



The USD/JPY is showing higher highs and higher lows again, which makes a downtrend less likely. Price would need to break below the support trend line (green) before a bullish outlook is invalidated.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD ready for bullish break in ABC rally

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD showed indecision yesterday in its movement. However, the strong bullish price action from last week still preservers and makes a bullish ABC zigzag (orange) the most likely scenario.

1 hour



The EUR/USD retraced back to the 23.6% Fibonacci level of wave B (orange). A break below the channel could indicate that price is retracing back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The 1.1475-1.15 price zone is the main target for the moment.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is in a choppy consolidation with support (green) and resistance (red) marking the consolidation zone. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave 2.

1 hour



The GBP/USD could use the support trend line (green) for further upside but the 78.6% Fibonacci level is a strong resistane.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY needs to break above this trend line (red) and resistance zone (orange) before a rally for a wave 3 (purple) becomes more likely. A break below the bottom (green) invalidates the wave 1-2 (purple) structure.

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have completed a bearish ABC (brown) zigzag within wave 2 (blue), which becomes invalidates if price manages to break below the 100% Fib level of '2 vs 1'.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD prolongs uptrend and USD/JPY creates falling wedge

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is resuming its bullish trend with a new higher high. The momentum is not as strong as wave A (orange) and price will need to break above the resistance trend line (red) before price can make a continuation to the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) for a bullish breakout as expected. Price is pausing at the first Fibonacci target but price can continue as long as price stays above the support levels (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The wave 1-2 structure (blue) will be changed if price bounces at support (green) again into a corrective formation like an ABC or if price stays too long in between support and resistance.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is at a support trend line (green). A bearish breakout could see price challenge the 4 hour support trend line.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY needs to break above the resistance trend line (red) and resistance zone (orange) before a rally for a wave 3 (purple) becomes more likely. A break below the bottom (100%) invalidates the wave 1-2 (purple) structure.

1 hour



The USD/JPY seems to be building a falling wedge chart pattern (red/green) which is potential reversal pattern. A break below the 100% Fib invalidates the wave 2 (blue). A break above the resistance could spark a bullish breakout.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”