Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD bearish price action breaks support but approaches Fib confluence

EUR/USD

4 hour



The current bearish momentum has been marked as a retracement for a wave X (purple), but this wave structure is invalidated if price manages to break below the long-term support trend line (green) and 100% Fibonacci level. The 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels could become bullish bounce spots.

1 hour


The EUR/USD bearish momentum seems to be building an ABC zigzag (blue) within wave X (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green). For the moment price action remains marked as corrective unless price manages to break below the 161.8% target, which makes a 123 wave pattern more likely than the current ABC (green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke the support of the normally bullish falling wedge chart pattern. The bearish momentum saw price accelerate quickly towards the Fibonacci levels. Price seems to be in a spot where it could make one more bearish fall for wave 5 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is not able to show a strong bullish rally at the 88.6% Fibonacci level either. A break below the 100% level invalidates the wave 1-2 (purple) structure.

1 hour


The USD/JPY is testing a support trend line (green). A break below it could see price challenge the 100% Fib level of the 4 hour chart. A break above resistance could start a reversal.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD bounces at golden ratio but meets sturdy resistance

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has respected the golden ratio, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Price then broke above the steeply angled resistance trend line (dotted orange). Whether price has fully completed the wave X (purple) depends if it break above the resistance trend line (red). A failure to break increases the chance of price retesting the support trend line and the next support Fib at the 78.6% around 1.1160. A bullish breakout above this resistance zone could solidify the development of waves Y (purple/brown).

1 hour



The EUR/USD stopped its bearish fall at the support trend line (green). A break above resistance (red) could price move towards the Fibonacci levels of "Y vs W'.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD developed a pullback to the broken support trend line (dotted green). For the moment price action remains marked as a corrective ABC (green) unless price manages to break below the 161.8% target, which makes a 123 wave pattern more likely than the current ABC (green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD retraced back to the 50% Fibonacci level. This could be a wave 4 (blue) of a wave C (green) unless price shows weakness and fails to place a lower low. A break above the resistance trend line (orange/red) could indicate the completion of wave C (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY was not able to break below the bottom yesterday but a break below the 100% level still invalidates the wave 1-2 (purple) structure. A break above the resistance (red) and falling wedge is needed before a bullish reversal becomes more likely.

1 hour



The USD/JPY has a weaker angle of the support trend line (green) than the resistance trend line (red), which makes it a falling wedge chart pattern.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Major currency pairs reach key Fibonacci levels

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) after yesterday's strong bearish 4 hour candle appeared. From a long-term perspective price is still above key support such as the daily trend line (solid green).

1 hour


The EUR/USD seems to be building a bearish 5 wave (green) within wave C. A break of support (green) could see an extension of the 5 th wave towards the Fibonacci targets. A break above resistance (red) increases the chance of a bullish momentum to the next resistance (orange) and the completion of the C wave (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is respecting a support trend line (green) and approaching a key Fibonacci level. For the moment price action remains marked as a corrective ABC (green) unless price manages to break below the 161.8% target, which makes a 123 wave pattern more likely than the current ABC (green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD managed to post a lower low with the momentum is decreasing which is confirmed by the shallow angled support trend line (green). A break above resistance (orange) marks the completion of wave C (green). A break of the inner support (blue) could see price make one more (last) push towards the 161.8% Fibonacci level before a bullish bounces becomes increasingly likely.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY was not able to break below the bottom yesterday but a break below the 100% level still invalidates the wave 1-2 (purple) structure. Price has grudgingly broken above the resistance trend line (dotted red) but has so far shown little bullish momentum.

1 hour



The USD/JPY therefore needs to break above the next resistance (orange) before a bullish momentum becomes more likely.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY breaks monthly 38.2% Fib support with style

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD showed a bullish bounce as part of a wave X (purple). Price now needs to break above resistance (orange/red) for a wave Y (purple/brown) continuation to take place.

1 hour



The EUR/USD did not break below the 61.8% Fibonacci target and therefore did not extend the bearish 5th wave. The bullish move has decent momentum and has been labelled as a wave A (blue). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (blue) are expected to act as support. A break below the 100% Fib level invalidates the AB structure whereas a bullish break above the resistance line (orange) confirms the start of wave C.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is respecting a support trend line (green) and approaching a key Fibonacci level. For the moment price action remains marked as a corrective ABC (green) unless price manages to break below the 161.8% target, which makes a 123 wave pattern more likely than the current ABC (green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD break above resistance (red) marks the completion of wave 2 (green) and continuation of wave A (pink). A break of the inner support (blue) could see price make one more (last) push towards the 161.8% Fibonacci level before a bullish bounces becomes increasingly likely.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY finally managed to break below the bottom (100% Fib) and support trend line (dotted green) yesterday, which indicates the break of the monthly 38.2% Fibonacci support and a new wave structure. Price has now space to fall to the 50% of the monthly chart. The USD/JPY seems to be doing that via a bearish ABC (blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY is accelerating the bearish momentum via wave 3 (green/pink) within wave C (blue).




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD climb quickly after lower low

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD developed one more bearish dip to fully hit the long-term support trend line (green) and the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A break below this trend line would indicate a long-term bearish breakout potential and has change the current wave structure.

1 hour



The EUR/USD showed a strong bullish bounce again at the trend line (green). The bullish momentum is most likely a wave A (blue). However, price could easily respect the resistance trend line (orange) which could start a wave B retracement to the Fibonacci levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD showed the same pattern as the EUR/USD with a lower low followed by strong bullish momentum. The GBP/USD wave structure would change if price were to break below the current bottom and trend line at 1.40.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is showing bullish momentum which is most likely a wave 1 (green). Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (green) could provide support.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has space to fall to the 50% of the monthly chart. Price action is well on its way via a bearish ABC (blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building a bear flag which took price to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break below the flag could see price fall towards the Fibonacci targets. A break above the resistance trend line (red) before making a lower low invalidates the current wave 4 (pink).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD start trading week with impulsive breakouts

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD bullish bounce has reached a resistance trend line (red). The bullish momentum is in control at the moment and a breakout now or later this week seems most likely. The Fibonacci levels are targets for the breakout.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is near the 78.6% Fibonacci target which could cause price to pause and build a chart pattern such as a contracting triangle.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has broken several resistance trend lines (dotted orange/red) since the bullish bounce after completing wave X (blue).

1 hour



The GBP/USD Fibonacci targets could stop the wave 3 (green) and start a sideways correction as part of wave 4 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has space to fall to the 50% of the monthly chart. Price action is well on its way via a bearish ABC (blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY is building a bear flag which took price to the 38.2%-50% Fibonacci retracement levels. A break below the flag could see price fall towards the Fibonacci targets. A break above the resistance trend line (red) before making a lower low invalidates the current wave 4 (pink).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Major currency pairs smack into barrier of resistance

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has made a slight bearish bounce at the resistance trend line (red). The bullish momentum, however, is still in control and a breakout could see price move towards the Fibonacci levels. Of course, all currency pairs will be impacted by the British vote on Thursday June 23rd.

1 hour



The EUR/USD has retraced back to the 38.2% Fibonacci support level via an ABC zigzag (blue). A break below the support trend line (green) could see an expansion of wave X (blue) whereas a breakout above the resistance (red) could see the start of wave Y (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has also reached a resistance trend line (red), which could be a price zone which creates a pause or retracement.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is in a wave 3 (green) but price could soon start a consolidation zone and make a correction as part of wave 4 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has broken the bear flag (green) chart pattern but a bullish 4 hour candle seems to be stopping the bearish breakout. The resistance trend line (red) will be an important factor whether the downtrend continues or fails.

1 hour



If the USD/JPY does start a retracement, then the Fibonacci levels of wave '4 vs 3' could act as resistance levels.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Forex market pauses ahead of Brexit or Bremain vote

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD used the resistance trend line (red) to retrace back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave X (blue) and the 1.1250 quarter level. Price could stay in between the support and resistance levels until the results of the British vote on Thursday June 23rd slowly become known.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green) for an expansion of wave X (blue). Any breakout could be contained by the support and resistance Fibonacci levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is struggling to break the resistance trend line (red) with the British vote on Thursday June 23rd around the corner. The wave count is highly vulnerable to change depending on the referendum result and market reaction to the event.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is in a wave 4 correction (green), which could expand to lower Fibonacci levels if price breaks support (green). A higher high could complete wave A (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY bounced at the previous bottom building a double bottom. The wave count is highly vulnerable to change depending on the referendum result and market reaction to the event.

1 hour



The USD/JPY respected the 50% Fibonacci level and is moving sideways.





“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Impact Brexit vote on Forex market and wave structure

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD managed to break the resistance trend line (dotted red) despite the British vote on the EU membership taking place today (Thursday June 23rd). The bullish price action is most likely reflecting a reaction towards the opinion polls. The wave count is highly vulnerable to change depending on the referendum result and market reaction to the event. The first results are expected in the morning of Friday June 24th GMT time.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is in a wave 5 (green), which could expand to higher Fibonacci levels if price breaks above resistance (orange).

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD bullish bounce at 1.1250 has taken price back to the resistance trend line (red). Bullish candles are now challenging the resistance level but a breakout or bounce could also remain unknown until the results of the British vote (today) are slowly announced in the morning of Friday June 24th (GMT).

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) for a continuation of wave Y (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is moving back and forth between support (green) and resistance (orange). The wave count is highly vulnerable to change depending on the referendum result and market reaction to the event.

1 hour



The USD/JPY will encounter many resistance Fibs if a break above the resistance trend line occurs.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Great British Pound dramatically crashes as U.K. votes for Brexit

GBP/USD

4 hour



First news reports have confirmed that pro Brexit voters, the people in favour of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union have won the referendum by a slim margin of roughly 51% versus 49%. As the results were announced the Great British Pound took a strong hit as the chances of a Brexit started to rise quickly, as was indicated in the Admiral Markets special Brexit webinars. The GBP/USD has fallen from a 1.50 high in matter of hours to below 1.35, the lowest level seen in decades.

1 hour



The GBP/USD completes the wave 4 (purple) correction. The Brexit vote, not a Fed interest rate hike, has become the market catalyst for the wave 4 and 5 structure to indeed develop.

EUR/USD

4 hour



The European Union would be faced with its first ever member exiting the Union. The EUR/USD is following the GBP/USD weakness, albeit with smaller moves. Here too the bearishness has broken support levels and could mark the completion of wave 4 and the start of wave 5 (blue).

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke below the support trend lines and price is showing strong bearish momentum on the news of the British voters preferring a Brexit.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has moved down towards the 50% Fibonacci level which was mentioned throughout the week as the next bearish target. Whether price will manage to break this target and fall towards the 61.8% depends on whether price action will lose or keeps its momentum.

1 hour



The USD/JPY broke the support levels (dotted green) on its fall to 100.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”