Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Builds Head and Shoulders Pattern at 78.6% Fibonacci

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is retesting the 88.6% level resistance level, which is part of the wave 2 (brown) structure. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave 2 (brown) whereas a break below the support (blue) trend line is needed before a bearish breakout is possible.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could be building a pullback via a wave 2 (purple). This wave structure is also invalided if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 whereas a bearish break below support (blue) could see a wave 3 (purple) develop. The tops could also be building a head and shoulders reversal chart pattern (purple circles). The support (blue) and resistance (red) trend lines also look like rising wedge chart pattern.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a bearish retracement at the resistance trend line (red). A bearish breakout could price test the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A (blue) whereas a bullish breakout could price develop within wave Y (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD price action seems to be either a wave 1 or wave A (purple) and a bullish bounce could be part of wave 2 or B (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (purple) could stop price from moving higher but is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a retracement back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple). The 38.2% and 50% are likely support levels to complete a wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be building a bullish ABC (orange) zigzag within wave X (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Approaches Wave 3 and Fibonacci Targets

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD completed a bearish turn at the 88.6% Fibonacci resistance and broke below a support trend line (dotted blue), which could be part of a bearish wave 3 (purple). The most momentum should be expected if price manages to break below the next support trend line (blue).

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed a wave 2 pullback (purple).Price could be in a wave 3 (blue) if it manages to break below the support trend line (green). A break above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave count.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a correction between support (green) and resistance) which is most likely a wave 4 (purple). At the moment a larger ABC (blue) correction seems likely within wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD price action seems to be in a wave A (purple) and a break below support (blue) could indicate a continuation towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 5 vs 1+3. A break above resistance (orange) could start wave B (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (purple) should become resistance but the structure is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a retracement back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple). The 38.2% and 50% are likely support levels to complete a wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke below the support trend line (dotted blue) and has completed the bullish ABC (orange) zigzag within wave X (brown). Price could now be building a bearish ABC zigzag (orange).

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[Admiral Markets]

Key Triangle Pattern Created at 38.2% Fibonacci Support

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have made a double bottom at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 vs 3. A break of the bottom would still encounter a larger support trend line (green). Price needs to break above resistance (orange/red) trend lines before a new uptrend becomes more likely.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could either be building a new uptrend via a 123 (blue) or a larger bearish correction via a WXY (grey). The trend lines indicate contracting triangle pattern and are critical to see whether a breakout could occur later today.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD failed to break below the support trend line (blue) and to reach the 161.8% Fibonacci target of wave 3 vs 1, which means that another wave 1-2 (blue) is likely unless price were to break above the top of wave 2 (purple).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is most likely building an ABC (green) zigzag within wave 2 (blue) unless price breaks below the 100% level of wave B vs A.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building an ABC (blue) correction within wave 4 (purple). Price could retest the larger resistance trend line (brown) and Fibonacci levels of wave C if it breaks the local resistance (red).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is probably in a wave 5 (orange) of the wave C (blue) unless price breaks the support trend line (blue) which would make a correction towards the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 likely.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Complete Wave-1 and Retrace for Wave-2

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD broke above the multiple key resistance levels (dotted lines) of the bearish trend channel. Price seems to have completed a bearish wave 1 (purple) and is now retracing back for a wave 2 (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) could therefore act as resistance. A break above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave 1-2 (purple).

1 hour

The EUR/USD could continue with its bullish momentum this morning towards the Fibonacci targets of wave C vs A. In that case a bullish 5 wave could be part of a larger bullish ABC zigzag. A bearish bounce at this spot could see price test and potentially bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is testing the resistance trend line (red) and a bullish breakout could see price test higher resistance (red/brown). A break below the support (blue) invalidates the wave 1-2 (orange).

1 hour

The GBP/USD could build a bearish ABC zigzag (grey) towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) if price bounces at resistance. A break below the 100% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1 (purple) invalidates the wave structure. A bullish breakout could see price move towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 vs 1 (orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke the support trend line (dotted green) which makes it more likely that a bullish 5 wave (brown) pattern has been completed for a wave 1 (blue). Price could now be retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1.A break below the 100% level invalidates this wave structure.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is probably building a deep bearish zigzag correction within wave 2 (blue). Price could bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A (brown), especially if the resistance trend line (red) breaks with a 3 wave ABC pattern. A bearish bounce could see price move lower within wave 2 (blue). A break above the 100% level of wave B vs A invalidates it.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD Decision Zone to Reveal Bullish or Bearish Trend

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed a bullish 5 wave (brown) pattern as part of a wave 1 (blue). Price could now be retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1. A break below the 100% level invalidates this wave structure. A breakout above resistance (red) could confirm and start the wave 3 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is probably building a bearish ABC zigzag (brown) correction within wave 2 (blue). Price could bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A (brown) price could move lower within wave 2 (blue). A break above the 100% level of wave B vs A invalidates wave B (brown) and below 100% of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates wave 2 (blue).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD retraced back to the Fibonacci levels of wave X (blue) as price builds a WXY correction within a larger wave 2 (puple). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) could therefore act as resistance. A break above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave 1-2 (purple).

1 hour

The EUR/USD showed a bearish bounce and price fell back to the 50% Fibonacci support level. Price will either break above resistance trend line (red) or retrace to deeper Fib levels of wave X vs W.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is in between multiple support and resistance trend lines. At this moment price is close the support trend line (blue) which could be used as a bouncing spot within wave 2-3 (orange) and a larger wave C (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to have built a bearish ABC zigzag (grey) towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple). A break below the 100% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1 (purple) invalidates the wave structure. A bullish breakout above resistance (red) could see price move towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 vs 1 (orange).

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Bullish Pullback to 1.2325 within Bearish Momentum

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continues with its bearish breakout which could be part of a wave 3 (blue). Price is at the 100% Fibonacci of wave 3 vs 1 (blue) but it would need to reach the 161.8% Fib target before a wave 3 (blue) becomes more likely.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is showing bearish price action but a minor pullback could occur. If price does bounce then a bullish retracement could reverse at one of the resistance levels (orange). A break, however, above 1.2350 could indicate bearish weakness. A bearish bounce at 1.2275-1.23-1.2325-1.2350 zone could indicate a wave 4-5 (pink) within wave 3 (orange).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD needs to break below the previous bottom (green line) to return back in a downtrend (waves 3) and complete the wave 2 (purple). If price breaks above resistance (orange) then price could extend that wave 2.

1 hour

The EUR/USD indeed failed to break below the support (green) and completed a bearish ABC (orange). Price could build another bullish ABC zigzag (blue) if price manages to break above the closest resistance (orange). A break below the support line (green) restarts the downtrend.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY still remains in wave 1-2 (blue) unless price breaks below above support (blue) which is the invalidation level. A break above the resistance level (red line) could continue with a wave 3 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could bounce at resistance first before breaking above it, which could lead to another wave 1-2 (brown) structure within wave wave 3 (blue).

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Bounces at Channel Bottom and Retraces in Wave-4

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bearish channel is neatly indicated by the trend lines (red). Price bounced at the bottom of the channel and is now approaching the top of the channel which typically acts as resistance. A bearish bounce could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels of waves 3 (green) whereas a bullish breakout could see price challenge the Fibonacci of wave 4 vs 3. A break above the 61.8% Fib invalidates the wave 4 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD retracement is in a wave 4 (blue) which typically retraces back to the 23.6% - 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci zone. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level invalidates this wave 4 (blue). A break below the support trend line (green) could see price continue with wave 5 (blue) within wave 3 (green) of the 4 hour chart.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD indeed bounced at the support trend line (green) and is now retesting resistance (red) within wave 2 (purple). A break above resistance could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A bearish bounce and break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue within potential waves (brown/green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to have completed a bullish ABC (blue) zigzag at the 100% Fibonacci target of wave C vs A.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is testing the resistance level (red line) and a break above it could see the USD/JPY continue with a wave 3 (blue) towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could use the strong resistance (red) to bounce and build an ABC (orange) within wave 2 (brown) and retrace back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Completes ABC Zigzag at 50% Fibonacci

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be retracing within a wave 2 (brown) back to the Fibonacci levels which could act as support. The wave 1-2 (brown) structure is invalidated once price breaks below the bottom (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building an ABC (orange) within wave 2 (brown) and could retrace back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 (brown).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD remains between a support (green) and resistance trend line (red), which mark the borders of the corrective zone. A break above resistance (red) could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue within waves 3 (red/green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is moving lower in a choppy and corrective way, which makes it likely that price is retracing within a wave B (blue). The invalidation spot of this wave B (blue) is the bottom (green)

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continued with the downtrend yesterday and posted a new lower low. Price remains in a bearish trend as long as it stays in the channel and below resistance (red/orange).

1 hour

The GBP/USD break below the support trend line (blue) could see price continue with wave 5 (blue) of wave 3 (green). A break above the inner resistance line (light orange) could see price expand the wave 4 (orange). A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level would make a wave 4 (orange) unlikely.

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Bearish Channel Aims for 1.20

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD remains in a downtrend as long as price stays in the bearish channel (red lines). Price is moving towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 and wave 3. A bearish continuation could see price move towards 1.20 which is a psychological round level, previous bottom (green) and 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour

The GBP/USD break below the support trend line (blue) could see price continue with wave 5 (pink) of wave 3 (green). A break above the resistance line (red) would most likely not change the downtrend as long as price stays below horizontal resistance levels (orange).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a consolidation zone which is indicated by support (green) and resistance (red). A break above resistance (red) could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue within waves 3 (red/green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is in a bearish yet corrective channel (orange/green lines) which has reached the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave B (blue). The invalidation level of wave B (blue) is a break below the bottom (green). A break above the resistance of the bearish channel (orange) could see price move up in a wave C (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY has completed the wave 2 (brown) retracement if price manages to break above the top (red). A failure to break could lead to an expanded wave 2 correction (brown).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a potential bullish 5 wave pattern (orange) if price manages to break above the resistance trend lines (red).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Pullback to 78.6% Fib at 1.0750 and 112.50

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a potential pull back and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could be a support level. A break below the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (blue/brown).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be in a wave 5 (pink) of wave C (orange).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is testing the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level of wave 2 (purple). A potential break above the 100% level invalidates the current wave 1-2 (purple) structure. A break below support (green/blue) confirms a new downtrend within waves 3 (brown/green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is potentially building a hook back within a wave 1-2 (blue) but a break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave structure.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) which makes a continuation of the correction within a larger ABCDE (green) triangle more likely.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is building a rising wedge chart pattern (green/red) within wave E. A bullish break could see price test the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A bearish break below support (green) could see price challenge the MA (dotted purple)

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