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EUR/USD Chart Analysis

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by macplauz, Jun 12, 2012.

  1. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    Hello,

    I will introduce a new EUR/USD thread. I will frequently post my EUR/USD chart analysis, which you also can find at Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

    I hope some people will participate and also post their EUR/USD analysis here.

    Let's share our knowledge!

    Let's get started:


    EUR/USD Market Recap 08.06.12

    daily.JPG

    EUR/USD found resistance at January's low 2012 (orange line) and the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing (EUR/USD Market Recap 07.06.12). Yesterday's daily candle could not close above the 20 SMA and closed in the price range of the prior daily candle (false breakout). Furthermore, market formed a Doji bar or evening star pattern, which led to a sharp drop in price in today's Asian and European session.

    1 hour.JPG

    On the hourly chart we see that the sharp price drop started at 1 a.m. GMT ,right after yesterday's daily doji bar closed. EUR/USD got initially pushed down by the 10 SMA and 20 SMA. The price drop at 1 a.m. triggered the bear flag (blue circle) and market moved to the 100 % fib extension (A-B at C ) and formed the second bear flag (D) at the green trend line and the 100 % fib extension (also 61.80 % fib retracement). In the following, market broke put of the bear flag and resumed it's down trend to the weekly pivot point. (Market respected the resistance in form of a bear, which means that market could not sufficiently bounce back from support-bearish signal). Recently, market respected (touched) the hourly 10 SMA (green circle) at 3 p.m. and broke through it with the next hourly candle. The 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. also looks like a doji (support at the weekly pivot).

    5min.JPG

    On the 5 min chart we see the different bear flags (circled). After EUR/USD broke out of the first bear flag (blue circle) market went to the 161,80 % fib extension (1-2 at 3) where market formed the second bear flag (red circle). EUR/USD broke out of the bear flag and went to the 100 % fib extension (5-6 at 7). Market found support at the weekly pivot (slightly penetrated but no confirmation, stop fishing below the low of June 6th-blue line) where it formed a kind of ending diagonal ((8-impulsive,9-correction,abcde-ending diagonal). The correction high (9-green line) is the initial target after the ending diagonal terminated, which market reached quickly (directional move). Recently, EUR/USD found resistance at the daily S2 (1.2492-not shown), the prior consolidation (red circle) and particularily the 61.80 % fib retracement (5-e-not shown) at 1.2493.


    EUR/USD Market Recap 11.06.12

    daily-eurusd9.JPG

    Market gapped up to 1.2624, which is the resistance zone of the 61.80 % fib retracement and the low of January 2012 (orange line) (EUR/USD Market Recap 07.06.12). Market moved above this resistance (second test) but could not overcome the monthly pivot point at 1.2661. From there, market bounced back and in the following EUR/USD closed the gap from today. On the 4 hour chart we see that the 4-hour candle closing at 12 a.m. GMT respected (closed at) the weekly pivot. Initially after the 4 hour candle closed market breached the weekly pivot point and EUR/USD formed a typical 3-wave consolidation pattern (5 min chart) below the weekly pivot before market resumed its down trend to close today's gap.

    1h-EurUsd123.JPG

    On the 1-hour chart we see that EUR/USD also closed at (respected) the daily pivot with the 3 p.m. candle before market initially breached the daily pivot point in the beginning of the next hourly candle.

    Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)
     
  2. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 12.06.12

    EUR/USD Market Recap 12.06.12

    1h-EurUsd124.JPG

    In the Asian session, the Euro found support at the weekly S1 and market formed a kind of doji/ pin bar (reversal candle) on the hourly chart (Yesterday's low-blue line). From there, the Euro moved up to the 20 SMA (hourly) where the euro found some resistance (5 a.m.) (1) before market moved above the 20 SMA up to the daily pivot point at 1.2522 (2). The Euro reversed at the daily pivot point and market targeted the recent hourly low at 7 a.m. to clear some stops (3) (no breakout confirmation of the hourly low on 5 min chart) before the euro moved up again and penetrated the daily pivot point (4). However, we see on the 5 min chart (B) that market never confirmed a break of the daily pivot point (no close above the breakout candle). Market rolled over at the daily pivot point and targeted yesterday's daily low. Yesterday's bearish daily candle made a retest of this low very likely (bearish sentiment) and many stop and limit orders are expected to be below yesterday's low. Market cleared these orders and bounced back and closed again at/above the weekly S1 on the hourly chart (first breakout is often a false breakout). On the 5 min chart (below) we also see that the breach of the weekly S1 and yesterday's low did not get confirmed. The 5 min candle at 3:05 p.m. closed at the weekly S1 (respected it) and the following breakout candle penetrated this support level, however, there was no suceeeding candle which closed below the range of the breakout candle. Moreover, market bounced back at the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E.
    Today's price action in the European session might be seen as a Head & Shoulder (ABC) with the green line as its neckline (5 min chart). Market formed a nice 3 wave consolidation pattern at the neckline (visible on the 1 min chart-bear flag) just prior to the breakout (D)

    5min-eurusd26.JPG

    On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro bounced back after the unconfirmed breach of the weekly S1 and yesterday's low (blue line) (F), moved up to the 20 SMA (3:45 p.m.) where market consolidated before the Euro went up further and formed a bullish consolidation (bull flag). The green neckline seemed to provide some resistance. The bull flag got triggered, supported by the rising 20 SMA on the 5 min chart and market moved up again.

    Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)
     
  3. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 13.06.12

    Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

    1h-EurUsd125.JPG

    Today in the beginning of the European session the Euro moved up to the 100 % fib extension (1-2 at 3) and daily R1 at 1.2548. The Euro struggled with this resistance level although EUR/USD moved up close to the weekly pivot point (1:35 p.m. GMT, 4). However, EUR/USD failed to close above this resistance zone (1.2548) on the hourly basis so that market moved lower (1:35 p.m.) to find some support at the rising hourly 10 SMA (red line-5). From there, the Euro strongly moved up above the prior resistance zone at 1.2548 (second test) and market was able to close above the weekly pivot on the hourly (second test) and 4-hourly basis (candle close at 4 p.m.). The hourly candle (3-4 p.m.) approximately closed at (respected) the 61.80 % retracement and daily R2, which in the following got broken with the beginning of the next hourly candle (4-5 p.m.) and the Euro moved up to the 100 % fib extension at 1.2603 (6).

    5min-eurusd27.JPG


    On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro very often reacted at the 61.80 % fib retracement marked with the 0 on the 5 min chart and also at the 100 % fib extension market with the 1 on the 5 min chart (important fibonacci levels). At the beginning of the London trading session at 9 a.m. the Euro made a abc retracement before market moved up to the 100 % fib extension at 1.2554. In the following market formed a typical 3-wave consolidation pattern/ butterfly (circled). After the termination of the consolidation the Euro reached the typical butterfly target (127 % fib extension-1-0 at 0) before EUR/USD reversed and took out the low of the prior consolidation (1.2526), which is also typical for a butterfly pattern. The Euro found support at the 10 SMA on the hourly Chart (2-3 p.m.) and formed a kind of ending diagonal on the 5 min chart (ED). In the following, the Euro strongly moved up to the 100 % fib extension, where market consolidated.

    Unfortunately, I do not know how to insert larger images
     
  4. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 14.06.12

    Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

    Yesterday, the Euro found resistance at the 100 % fib extension (1.2603) (4) and bounced back to today's daily pivot point (1.2552) and the 61.80 % fib retracement (6). From there, the Euro form a larger consolidation around the weekly pivot at 1.2564 on the hourly chart. During this consolidation the Euro did not confirm a break below the weekly pivot point on the hourly chart after yesterday's confirmed upward penetration of this level (4 p.m-yesterday) . The recent consolidation pattern at yesterday's high (5) and the low of August 2010 (orange line/weekly chart-last chart) seem to have capped the market to the upside recently (8). Since the break below orange line on Monday the Euro struggled to confirm an upward break through this level again on the hourly chart. However, the 4 p.m. hourly candle confirmed the upward breach of the orange line on the hourly chart after market paused at the 61.80 % fib extension (3-4 at 7). But in general, the price action on the daily chart might be more important in analysing the price behaviour around weekly support/resistance.

    1h-EurUsd126.JPG

    On the 5 min chart (below) we see that the Euro retested the daily pivot point at about 10 a.m. GMT but market could hold at support. The initial breakout candle at 9:55 a.m.did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart. The Euro consolidated around the daily pivot point (B) and moved up again (no confirmed breach of the daily pivot point). The daily pivot and the recent consolidation (B) at this price level held the market again at 1:10 p.m (C) and the Euro moved up again. At 2:40 p.m. the Euro bounced strongly back from the weekly pivot point and the 61.80 % fib retracement (D) after the Euro formed a higher low (1:10 p.m.) and higher high (1:55 p.m.) on the 5 min chart. The Euro consolidated at the 61.80 % fib extension before market resumed its uptrend and breached the recent high (blue line-stop clearing target) but the Euro found resistance at the 61.80 % fib extension on the 5 min chart (G) (first breakout often false one) and market price closed below the blue line (recent high) on the hourly (4 p.m.). The Euro found some temporarily support at the price level of the prior consolidation (H) and market formed a bear flag before market went lower (not shown).

    5min-eurusd29.JPG
    weekly-EURUSD4.JPG
     
  5. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 15.06.12

    Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

    4h-eurusd12.JPG

    1h-EurUsd127.JPG

    On the 4 hour and 1 hour chart we see that the Euro very often closed at the low of January 2012 at 1.2624 (pink line), which coincides with the daily high of the 7th of June and the gap opening on Monday. Particularly on the 4 hour chart we see that every candle today closed at this important level. On the hourly chart we see that the Euro respected the 61.80 % fib extension at 5 a.m. (recent high) and price moved lower from there. On the 1 hour and 5 min chart (below) we see a nice Head & Shoulder formation. At 11:15 a.m. the Euro breached the neckline (brown line) (A) but market could not confirm this breakout (first test). The second break of the neckline occurred at 12:45 p.m. and market moved to the 100 % fib extension (B). EUR/USD breached the daily pivot point, however, the pivot point, the 4-hour 10 SMA and trend line (4-hour chart) supported the market. The Euro managed to close above the neckline on the hourly chart at 2 p.m. after a choppy price between the neckline and the weekly pivot.

    On the 5 min chart (below) we again see the importance of the pink line and its changing role from resistance to support vice versa. The Euro formed a bull flag on the 5 min chart and in the following closed above the pink line after market already regained the neckline with the hourly close at 2 p.m.. The Euro bounced back from the pink line at 5:25 p.m. (now support) and cleared the stops above the recent high (C). However, market could not close above the recent high on the 5 min chart at the first breakout (only stop fishing) and the Euro fell back again.

    5min-eurusd30.JPG
     
  6. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 18.06.12

    1h-EurUsd128.JPG

    5min-eurusd31.JPG

    Today, the Euro gapped up to 1.2748 and from there EUR/USD started to move down and completely retraced the gap and the Euro even fell much further.
    The 2 a.m hourly candle found support at the 10 SMA (red line) and the Euro started to retrace up to 1.2725 supported by the rising hourly 10 SMA. After the end of the upward retracement the Euro resumed its downtrend and closed today's gap.
    The 8 a.m. hourly candle respected (touched) the hourly 20 SMA (purple line) after the Euro consolidated between the 20 SMA and 200 SMA on the 5 min chart, and the Euro initially broke through the 20 SMA with the beginning of the new hourly candle at 9 a.m. (London open-green circle on 5 min chart). The Euro found some temporary support at the pink line (low of January) and formed an abc-retracement up to the monthly pivot point. From there, the Euro bounced back and penetrated the pink line again but market could not confirm the breakout on the 5 min chart . However, the Euro made a hourly close below the daily and particulary weekly pivot point (11 a.m.) and confirmed the break below the daily and weekly pivots on the 5 min chart. The following retracement went up to these pivots and the 20 SMA on the 5 min chart which now all acted as resistance (red circle). EUR/USD bounced back from this resitance, which also coincided with a retest of the gap opening (brown line) and the Euro finally breached the low of January 2012 (pink line). The Euro found some support under the low of Friday (initial target reached = stop clearing-The first breakout is very often not confirmed). Moreover, the orange line highlights the low from August 2010, which acted as support. Market retraced up from there (abc-retracement) but as market resumed its downtrend at 3:30 p.m.the Euro breached the orange line and confirmed the break on the 5 min chart so that the orange line became resistance on the 5 min chart and market's upward correction terminated at this resitance at 5:50 p.m..The daily S2, the 200 hourly SMA, the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent daily upswing and the 100 % fib extension (1-2 at 3) give some support around 1.2550-1.2565.

    Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)
     
  7. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 19.06.12

    EUR/USD Market Recap 19.06.12

    5min-eurusd32.JPG 1h-EurUsd129.JPG

    On the 1 hour chart we see the changing role of the key level at 1.2588 (August 2010 low-orange line). Yesterday in the US session the Euro closed below this level at 3 p.m. GMT and in the following the Euro found resistance at the orange line. However, the Euro got supported by the hourly 200 SMA (black line) and the EUR/USD move above the orange line again in today's overnight session. Now, the orange line acted at support (prior resistance becomes support) and the Euro did not close below this level on an hourly basis. EUR/USD penetrated the orange line between 9 a.m. -10 a.m. but market bounced back again from the 200 SMA (yesterday's consolidation also provided some support at this price level) and closed finally above the key support.on the hourly chart. From there, the Euro moved up to the next key level at 1.2624 (pink line-January low). The Euro could not overcome this level for a while, however, EUR/USD also did not significantly bounced back from this resistance. The resistance got further strengthed due to the daily pivot at 1.2629. Market formed a bull flag on the hourly chart and the Euro broke through resistance (pink line) with the beginning of the 2 p.m. hourly candle after market repeatedly slightly penetrated this level during the three hour consolidation (bull flag-eroded resistance over time). Moreover, the bull flag terminated exactly at the 100 % time projection of the prior upswing (A-B at B, 5 min chart below).
    After the break of the strong resistance (pink line) market gained strong bullish momentum.
    The 2 p.m. hourly candle closed above the weekly pivot, the 3 p.m. hourly candle above the monthly pivot and the 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. closed (respected) at the 61.80 % fib retracement and market breached the 61.80 % fib retracement initially after the 4 hour candle closed (red circle on hourly chart).

    5min-eurusd32.JPG

    On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro initially moved to the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C) after the breach of the pink line. The Euro found some resistance there and bounced back to find support at the rising 10 SMA (red line) on the 5 min chart and the Euro got repeatedly pushed up after touching the rising 10 SMA (strong bullish momentum).
    The 5 min chart also highlights the changing role (support/resistance) of the orange line. EUR/USD repeatedly reacted at this level (1.2588).

    Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)
     
  8. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 20.06.12

    EUR/USD Market Recap 20.06.12

    1h-EurUsd130.JPG

    The daily high of the 11th of June at 1.2669 is another key level (blue line). Today, the Euro found some support at this level in the Asian and beginning of the European session (hourly chart above). The Euro traded in a tight range prior to the FOMC market release.

    1h-EurUsd130.JPG

    On the 5 min chart (above) we see that market formed a kind of Head & Shoulder pattern (ABCDE). The break of the brown neckline got confirmed with the news release at 5:30 p.m. GMT. Just prior to the news release at 5:25 p.m. the Euro bounced back from the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E and market closed in the range of the preceding 5 min candle. After the news release the Euro (5 min candle-5:30) initially moved down to the H & S target at around 1.2665 (B-D at F - blue circle, F= neckline break), also 161% fib extension C-D at E. From there market bounced back before the Euro resumed its downtrend to the weekly pivot point where the Euro found strong support and moved up again. The Euro found some resistance at the brown neckline (touched-respeced it, red circle) before market finally broke the neckline to the upside with the beginning of the new hourly candle at 6 p.m.. The chance of a temporary continuation of the uptrend and a breach of the high of the 5 p.m. hourly candle got increased due to the 5 p.m. hourly rejection candle (long tail) and the hourly close at the neckline. The 6 p.m. hourly candle breached yesterday's high. The volatile market after the news release led to a clearing of the stops below and above today's "pre-new release" trading session, which is not untypical for a news release (stop fishing targets).


    Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)
     

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  9. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 21.06.12

    EUR/USD Market Recap 21.06.12

    daily-eurusd10.JPG

    4h-eurusd13.JPG

    On the daily chart (first chart) we see that yesterday's daily candle formed a doji and market formed a kind of double Top. The Euro dropped in today's European and US session and currently market penetrates the daily trendline and the Euro is close to the 20 SMA (purple line). On the 4-hour chart (above) we see that the Euro touched (respected) the daily trendline (red) with the closing of the 4-hour candle at 4 p.m.. The Euro initially dropped further with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle starting at 4 p.m. (Timing) and the Euro penetrated the low of the 18th of June (green line).

    1h-EurUsd131.JPG

    On the hourly chart (above) we see that the Euro found resistance at the 61.80 % fib retracement (1) yesterday in the US session. Today, the Euro found support at the monthly pivot point in the Asian session (2) and moved up to the 20 SMA (3) where the Euro bounced back. The Euro moved down and penetrated the monthly Pivot point at 8 p.m. whereby the breach of the recent low (grey line, (4)) did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart (stop fishing). From there, market moved up and finally penetrated the daily pivot point at 1.2691 (5), however, the Euro did not confirm the breach on the 5 min chart (no higher close of the succeeding candles above the range of the breakout candle at 12:20 p.m.) and market formed a strong one-hour rejection candle (long tail of the 12 a.m. candle). In the following, the Euro dropped down strongly. The 2 p.m. hourly candle respected (touched) the support level at 1.2624 (pink line-Januarly low, orange circle) and market initially breached this level with the beginning of the 3 p.m. hourly candle. The same pattern occurred at the hourly 200 SMA and the daily trend line (red line). Market touched this support level and immediately after the close of the hourly and 4-hour candle at 4 p.m. (Timing) the Euro breached this support level and resumed its downward trend (black circle).

    5min-eurusd34.JPG

    The 5 min chart (above) shows the failed breakout confirmation at the grey line (A) and the daily pivot point (B). The red circle illustrates typical price behaviour around support and resistance. The 1:35 p.m. candle breached the monthly pivot but could not close below, however, the second breach got confirmed on the 5 min chart from the 2:05 p.m. candle. The Euro moved up again but market could not regain the prior support level (no confirmed close above the monthly pivot). The Euro also found resistance at the decreasing 10 SMA (red line), and the 5 min candle at 2:15 p.m. closed as a doji. The monthly pivot point now acted as resistance and price moved down. The green circle shows the bearish consolidation (bear flag) at the pink line (January low). The Euro breached this level at 3 p.m. initially after the hourly candle closed at this support level. The same price behaviour occurred at 4 p.m.. In a strong bearish or bullish environment market often close at key levels and after market respected these levels with the candle close these levels often get breached with the beginning of the new candle (either for a false or confirmed breakout-Timing). This price behaviour is visible on all time frames. The blue circle on the 5 min chart shows the retest of the orange line (low of August 2010) after this level got breached (confirmed). The 20 SMA also pushed the price further down (trend continuation).

    Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)
     
  10. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 25.06.12

    EUR/USD Market Recap 25.06.12

    daily-eurusd11.JPG

    4h-eurusd15.JPG

    1h-EurUsd132.JPG

    Last week the Euro formed a Double Top whereby the second top is a doji on the daily chart. The EUR/USD initially moved down and reached the price target of the Double Top on thursday (EUR/USD Market Recap 21.06.12), which is the breach of the low between the two tops at 1.2557 (low of June 18th-blue line). The Euro found temporary support at the daily 20 SMA after market breached the blue line. The Euro is currently close to the 61.80 % fib retracement (1.2464) of the recent upswing (daily chart).

    On the 4-hour chart (left) we see that a kind of bearish flag was formed. Today market triggered the bear flag and the Euro resumed its downtrend. The 10 SMA (red line) on the 4-hour and 1-hour chart pushed the Euro down. The Euro found some support at the 61.80 % fib extension from the recent swing down (A-B at C-see 4 hour chart).

    5min-eurusd36.JPG

    The blue circles show some bear and bull flags on the 5 min chart. The fib extension levels 61.80 % (initial target), usually 100 % and sometimes even 161 % (strong trend) are typical swing projection targets e.g. of the bull and bear flags. The swing down after the first bear flag moved to the 161 % fib extension (breach of friday's low-stop triggering). The swing down after the second bear flag only moved to the inital 61.80 % target and the swing up after the small bull flag reached the 100 % fib extension. The recent upswing on the 5 min chart found resistance at the 200 SMA and the 100 % fib extension.


    The main question will be whether the Euro can make some larger retracements from the recent 61.80 fib extension on the 4-hour chart or whether the Euro is forming a new bear flag on the hourly/4-hour chart before resuming the down trend to the 100 % fib extension. The hourly 20 SMA and the 200 SMA on the 5 min chart currently provide some resistance.


    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     

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