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EUR/USD Chart Analysis

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by macplauz, Jun 12, 2012.

  1. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 27.06.12

    1h-EurUsd134.JPG

    5min-eurusd38.JPG

    Yesterday, the Euro found support at 1.2445 and formed a pin bar on the hourly chart. The bullish pin bar is a reversal pattern and it shows a strong demand at its level of creation. Hence, market was supported at this level and the strong rally back indicated a bullish rejection of the penetrated price level.The pin bar (bullish sign) led to some follow through and the Euro moved up to the 1.2500 zone. However, on the hourly and 5 min chart we see a kind of Head and Shoulder pattern. The brown neckline of the H&S and the supporting green trendline got broken at 1:15 p.m. GMT (confirmed on the 5 min chart). As often, market retested the recent support which now became resistance (neckline, green line) at 1:35 p.m. (small red circle). However, the neckline/green trendline held the market, which also coincided with the 5 min 20 SMA and 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing down. The Euro initially moved down after the retest but market did a second retest of the brown neckline (green circle) after market got rejected at the 61.80 % fib extension and weekly S1 at 2:15 p.m. (pink circle). If market strongly bounce back from the 61.80 % fib extension (no initial penetration or consolidation at this level then a temporary rejection of the current trend on this time frame is likely (either reversal or larger consolidation) and market moves to the recent support/ resistance. However, the Euro could not move above the neckline (green circle) and market resumed its downtrend and finally the Euro reached the H&S target (100 % fib extension from the largest swing of the H&S moved to the breach of the neckline) (blue cirlce). The H&S target also coincided with the March 2009 support level and the 100 % fib extension from the recent swing down. The Euro moved up from there but market penetrated this support level with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle at 4 p.m. after the prior hourly and 4-hour candle already touched (respected) the monthly low of March 2009. However, market only temorary breached this level (brown circle) and the Euro found support at the fib confluence level at about1.2447 and the daily S1. The Euro hold at the two 100 % fib extension and the 61.80 % fib extension (rejection) and market closed again above/at the March 2009 support level (rejection). The Euro resumed its uptrend after the formation of two bull flags (first one at the 5 min 20-SMA resistance).
    The price zone of the consolidation at 1 a.m. and at 6 a.m. (on the left of the 5 min chart) gave some support/resistance to the market as the Euro reached this price zone again.

    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     
  2. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 28.06.12

    In the Asian session the Euro moved up to 1.2525 but then market started to move down sharply, probably due to the news about spanish bond yields. Waiting for the results of the EU summit..

    1h-EurUsd135.JPG daily-eurusd13.JPG 5min-eurusd39.JPG

    From the chart technical perspective the Euro formed a bear flag at about 8 a.m. GMT on the 5 min chart before resuming its down trend. The Euro breached the weekly S1 and the monthly low of March 2009 initially after the 8 a.m. hourly candle closed at this level (red circle) and the new hourly candle started (Timing setup; 9 a.m. news). The strong bearish 5 min breakout candle at 9 a.m. triggered the stops below the recent lows, particularly the low of the 8th of June at 1.2435 (pink line) and the stops below the March 2009 support level at1.2456, which held the market this week. However, the breakout candle at 9 a.m did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart (no close of the succeeding candles below the range of the breakout candle). The Euro found support at the daily S2 and the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C) on the daily chart (stop clearing below the recent lows accomplished-first test). The 5 min candle at 9:15 a.m.breached the daily S2 but closed above it and also in the range of the prior breakout candle and the Euro started to consolidate around the 1.2435 level (pink line-June 8th). On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro found resistance at the pink line before breaching it to the upside. The Euro closed above the daily S1 at 12.15 but found resistance at the weekly S1 so that market fell back into the consolidation around the pink line.
    Market is waiting for some reults from the EU summit.

    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     
  3. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 02.07.12

    EUR/USD: We are currently at the monthly pivot point, daily 20 SMA and August 2010 low. I dont think that much will happen today anymore. If EUR/USD is able to hold the current support these days (possible bull flag on daily) then we could have some follow through of Fridays strong candle. If market is falling below the support level then more downside is likely (possible bear flag on the hourly/4 hour chart, consolidation at support (respecting) before resuming the down trend). The hourly low of 1.2553 might be the first downside target whereby the 20 SMA on the 4-hour chart could provide some support.


    EUR/USD Market Recap 02.07.12

    daily-eurusd14.JPG

    On Friday the Euro moved up to the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C). Today, market bounced back from this resistance level. The monthly pivot and daily 20 SMA (purple line) currently act as support. The low of January at 1.2624 (orange line) and the low of August 2010 at 1.2588 (purple line) are key levels.

    4h-eurusd16.JPG

    On the 4-hour chart we see that the Euro respected the orange line and the 4-hour 10-SMA (red line). However, after the close of the bearish 4-hour candle at 12 a.m. (red circle-left) (Timing setup) the Euro fell below the orange line/ 10 SMA.

    1h-EurUsd136.JPG

    On the 1 hour chart we see that the 12 a.m. hourly candle (A) respected the daily pivot at 1.2598. The 1 p.m. candle penetrated the pivot point and respected the weekly pivot at 1.2586 and the purple line (August 2010 low) but closed above the daily pivot on the hourly chart. However, the 3 p.m. hourly candle resumed the down trend and penetrated the already touched/ respected support levels (second test). The Euro found support at the monthly pivot point.
    The price zone of the circled consolidation (blue) from Friday also provided some temporary support.

    5min-eurusd40.JPG

    On the 5 min chart we had a kind of inverted Head and Shoulder in the Asian session with the green neckline and a prolonged left shoulder at the support level of the low of January (orange line). At 11 a.m. we see a typical 3-wave consolidation at the support level (orange line) before the Euro resumed its downtrend. The duration of the consolidation is the same like the duration of the prior 5-min down swing. Most of the circled candles on the 5 min chart show how price bounced at support/ resistance.

    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     
  4. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 03.07.12

    EUR/USD Market Recap 03.07.12

    daily-eurusd15.JPG

    Today, the Euro had a relatively quite session. On the daily chart we see that the support level around the monthly pivot at 1.2568, the low of August 2010 at 1.2588 (purple line) and the 20 SMA (purple) held the market so far.

    1h-EurUsd138.JPG

    The circled areas on the hourly chart show how price bounced from support/ resistance.
    On the hourly chart we see that the Euro moved up to the daily pivot at 1.2611 at 7 a.m. GMT but market could not breach the resistance and moved lower from there. The Euro penetrated the monthly pivot and cleared some stops below it and yesterday's low but the Euro closed above this key resistance level on the hourly chart (green circle). After the clearing of the stops and the rejection of prices (close above the monthly pivot on the hourly and higher low on the 5 min chart) market moved to the other side of the consolidation (1.2568 - 1.2614) to test it. The Euro breached the pivot point and the recent high at 1.2614 (stop clearing) but the key level at 1.2624 (orange line- January low) provided strong resistance and the Euro bounced back.
    The fake breakouts (stop clearing) seem to be typical in a quite session when everyone is waiting for major news and thus traders are lacking commitment/ low participation.

    5min-eurusd42.JPG

    On the 5 min chart (above) we see how price bounced from support/resistance (blue circles) and the formation of consolidations/bull/bear flags (red circles) as well as some Fibonacci extensions (100 % and 161 %).
    The price zones of the consolidations (red circle) provided some temporary support/ resistance as the market moved back into these zones.
    At 9 a.m. market formed an inverted Head & Shoulder at the purple line (August low 2010). During the pattern market did not confirm the break of the purple line (no close of the succeeding candles below the range of the 9:30 a.m. breakout candle on the 5 min chart). Market breached the brown neckline and moved up to the H&S price target (100 % of the larger swing in the H&S-(left shoulder to head)-moved to the break of the neckline). Between 1 and 3 p.m. the Euro breached the monthly pivot but the Euro formed a higher low and closed above the monthly pivot on the hourly chart (rejection of the breakout). From there, the Euro moved up to test the other side of the consolidation range and market found temporary resistance at the weekly pivot/ 161 % fib extension at 3 p.m. and the daily pivot at about 4 p.m.. The chance of a breach of the daily pivot increased due to the bull flag, the rising 10 SMA, the prior test at 7 a.m. (second test now) and particularly the fact that the prior 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. already touched (respected) the daily pivot so that this resistance level got weaker with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle (Timing setup).



    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     
  5. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 04.07.12

    EUR/USD Market Recap 04.07.12

    1h-EurUsd139.JPG

    On Tuesday, the Euro penetrated the monthly pivot (second test) but closed above it on the hourly chart (rejection). From there the Euro tried to break to the upside but market could not break the orange line (January low). The penetration of the recent pivots (low,high - red circle on hourly chart) and thus the stop fishing on both sides very often precedes larger moves in the market as most of the traders are already stopped out or trapped in the wrong position. The failed break to the upside (orange line) with the clearing of the stops above the recent high (1.2614) of the short positions led to a third test of the monthly pivot today, which got already penetrated at the second test (weaker now). Some indication for a break of the monthly pivot were the facts that it was already the third test, the hourly close of the 11 a.m. candle below the monthly pivot and the confirmation of the break at 12 a.m. on the 5 min chart and at the 3 p.m. hourly candle close (lower close than the range of the breakout candle-blue circle on hourly). The blue circle on the 5 min chart at 1 p.m. shows how the monthly pivot started to act as resistance now and the green circle shows a typical 3-wave consolidation pattern before market impulsively moved down. The Euro found some support at 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing up at 1.2517 (brown line) and from there the Euro retraced up to the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent impulsive wave down at 1.2543.
    The consolidations below the weekly and monthly pivot on the hourly chart can be seen as bear flags.

    Prior to the impulsive wave market penetrated the recent lows (blue and red line), which often gives some short term support (see the candles with the long wick which penetrated these levels (12, 12:15, 14;20 p.m.-stop fishing accomplished).

    On the 5 min chart (below) we also see the changing role from support to resistance of the weekly pivot and the August 2010 low (purple line). This price zone provided support in the Asian session (ellipse) before market breached this level (9 a.m.) and retested it at around 10 p.m. (now resistance).

    5min-eurusd43.JPG

    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     
  6. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 05.07.12

    EUR/USD Market Recap 05.07.12

    1h-EurUsd140.JPG 4h-eurusd17.JPG

    Today, the Euro moved down strongly after the news release from the ECB and the Euro took out the low from the 28th of June.

    On the 4-hour chart we see that the Euro formed a bear flag (blue circle) after yesterday's down swing, which got triggered with the news release from the ECB. The Euro moved down straight and currently market found support at the monthly S1 below the recent daily low (pink line-28 of June).

    On the hourly chart we see that EUR/USD formed a triangle (bear flag on 4-hour). The up-trending green line of the triangle got touched from the 8 a.m. hourly candle (weaken). The following hourly candle at 9 a.m. closed below the green line and the 10 a.m. hourly candle took out the triangle low (green line-grey circle). The Euro moved back into the price zone of the consolidation, which usually acts as resistance (12 a.m. -blue circle). Market moved down strongly from there with the news release form the ECB.

    The brown circle on the 5 min chart (below) shows the breach of the up-trending line of the triangle, which then started to act as resistance. Market initially moved down to the daily S2, penetrated it and retested this level from the downside (green circle) before resuming the down trend to the 61.80 % fib extension, the daily S1 and monthly S1 at about 1.2387 (blue circle). This swing down penetrated the recent daily low at 1.2707 (28 June) and market retested this level again from the downside (also 10 SMA-red circle) before market moved down to the 61.80 % fib extension at 1.2363 (pink circle). Market currently consolidates around the monthly S1.

    5min-eurusd44.JPG

    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     
  7. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 10.07.12

    1h-EurUsd141.JPG 4h-eurusd18.JPG

    Today, the Euro moved up to the1.2329 resistance level (purple line-October 2008 low and 20 SMA on the 4-hour chart) and from there market resumed its downtrend and the Euro created a new daily low.

    5min-eurusd46.JPG

    On the 5 min chart we see that consolidations very often consists of three swings (red circles). One of them occurred in the Asian session between 2 - 3 a.m. GMT and after termination market moved to the 100 % fib extension. Another one occurred at about 10 a.m. and this consolidation is also the left shoulder of the Head and Shoulder pattern on today's market top, which took place at the 4-hour 20 SMA and the October 2008 low (purple line). The right shoulder is also a three swing consolidation and after termination the Euro penetrated the brown neckline. However, market consolidated below the neckline and slightly penetrated the neckline to the upside again. A reversal (failing of the H&S) or at least a shakeout got more likely due to the length of the consolidation below the neckline (Good trading opportunities at important levels/pattern termination normally do not give much time for positioning as it is recognized by many traders and thus triggered fast).
    The lengthy consolidation followed by the upside break of this consolidation through the neckline led to a kind of shakeout of the week hands. The Euro found resistance at the 20 SMA on the 5 min chart and the price zone of the prior consolidation (right shoulder) so that the Euro resumed the down trend and triggered the H&S pattern. The 1 a.m. hourly candle triggered the stops below today's (green line) and yesterday's low (blue line) but the candle closed and formed a bull flag (on 5 min chart) at the recent hourly low at 1.2281 (blue line). The bull flag (blue circle) got triggered and market moved to the daily pivot and the 100 % fib extension on the 5 min chart. From there, the Euro resumed its downtrend again. The 2 p.m. hourly candle closed at the daily S1 (red circle on hourly, weakening this level) and the following hourly candle starting at 3 p.m. moved below it and closed at Monday's gap opening at 1.2253 (brown line). Another timing setup occurred with the start of the new 4-hour candle at 4 p.m.. The Euro terminated it's three wave consolidation pattern on the 5 min chart at 3:45 p.m. (red circle) and market moved lower again after the previous 4-hour candle closed and weaken the gap opening support (brown line). However, the Euro did not confirm the breach of the prior consolidation low at 1.2245 (green circle) and the Euro reversed and the 4 p.m. hourly candle closed at the gap opening (brown line). Market is currently consolidating around this level.
    The pin bar at 8:25 a.m. after the penetration of the 1.2288 level (pink line-low of June 1st) led to a non-confirmation of the break and the Euro moved up again after the bull flag just above the pink line. A hint for the continuation was the close of the 9:20 candle at/above the daily pivot with the confirmation of the following 5 min candle.

    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     
  8. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 20.07.12

    EUR/USD Market Recap 20.07.2012

    Legend:
    blue circles: price reaction at support/ resistance
    green circles: bull/ bear flags/ consolidations
    red circles: see comments

    daily-eurusd16.JPG

    During recent days the Euro formed a kind of up-trending wedge on the daily/4-hour chart. The wedge pattern found resistance at the daily low of June 1st (pink line) and the price zone of the recent consolidation (green daily circle) and support at the 127 % butterfly target and the 61,80 % weekly fib extension.

    Today, the Euro broke below the rising pink daily trend line and market cleared the stops below the recent daily low (13 of July-blue line). The wedge formed three rising highs (happens often) before market turned around.

    4h-eurusd21.JPG

    The 4-hour chart (above) shows the typical timing setup (red circle). The Euro broke below the daily S1, yesterday's low (red line) and the rising daily trend line (pink line) after the prior 4-hour candle closed at support (respecting it) and the new 4-hour candle started (not immediately).

    The hourly chart (below) shows that the price zone of the bull flag (green circle) provided some support yesterday. Yesterday's two marked candles with the red ellipses show some bearish pressure. The first hourly candle marks the third high but market retraced most of the hourly range (rejection) and the second marked candle is a doji (also kind of evening star pattern). Today, the Euro formed a consolidation between the daily and weekly pivot but market created lower highs and a lower low before the Euro broke below it.

    1h-EurUsd144.JPG

    The 5 min chart (below) shows how price reacted at support/ resistance and some consolidations whereby the consolidation at about 10 a.m. GMT had the typical three-wave structure. The marked candle at 2 p.m. (red ellipse) between the two consolidation patterns shows that the break of the red support line occurred with the beginning of the new hourly candle (Timing).

    5min-eurusd49.JPG

    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     
  9. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Weekly Market Recap

    EUR/USD Weekly Market Recap
    Legend:

    circles/ ellipses:
    blue circles/ellipses: price reaction at support/ resistance
    green circles/ellipses: bull/ bear flags/ consolidations
    red circles/ellipses: timing setups/ comments

    Lines:
    purple line-monthly S&R/ orange line-weekly S&R/ pink line-daily S&R/ red line-4-hour S&R/ blue line-1-hour S&R/ green line-5 min S&R/ brown line-necklines and gaps

    SMA's:
    black line-200 SMA, purple line-20 SMA, red line-10 SMA
    Pivots on Charts


    5min-eurusd51.JPG

    1h-EurUsd148.JPG

    4h-eurusd22.JPG

    daily-eurusd17.JPG

    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     
  10. macplauz

    macplauz Private

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    EUR/USD Market Recap 2012-08-06

    Legend:

    circles/ ellipses:
    blue circles/ellipses: price reaction at support/ resistance
    green circles/ellipses: bull/ bear flags/ consolidations
    red circles/ellipses: timing setup
    black thick circles: see chart comments

    Lines:
    purple line-monthly S&R/ orange line-weekly S&R/ pink line-daily S&R/ red line-4-hour S&R/ blue line-1-hour S&R/ green line-5 min S&R/ brown line-necklines and gaps

    SMA's:
    black line-200 SMA, purple line-20 SMA, red line-10 SMA

    Pivots on Charts

    5min-eurusd54.JPG daily-eurusd18.JPG

    Today, in the Asian session the Euro triggered/ cleared the stop and limit orders above the high of last week and then started to retrace back at the daily 61.80 % fib retracement and the weekly 10 SMA
    The solely clearing of stop and limit orders at striking price points (low/high) is a typical market behaviour/ target particularly at the first test of these levels - false breakouts/ non confirmation.

    On the 5 min chart we had two pin bars which closed in the price range of the preceding 5-min candle (price rejection/ non-confirmation). Both pin bars led to a reversal, whereby the first pin bar cleared the stops below the recent low which often increases the chance of a price reversal - stop clearing accomplished. We also had a H&S on the 5 min chart and market reached the H&S target (neckline= brown line).

    Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market
     

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