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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee​

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Wednesday, April 25th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend in the middle of this trading week, having spiked the level of 1.2200 in early Europe. Yesterday the pair managed to recover some part of its losses after 3-day southern rally on the back of downside correction of the US dollar. However, it seems that the greenback regained positive tone this Wednesday, thus forming fresh market trend. On the other hand, typical cautiousness ahead of much-awaited ECB meeting, which is scheduled for tomorrow, could limit further decline of the pair. On the data front, today both economic calendars won’t offer investors anything interesting, leaving the pair at the mercy of the US dollar dynamics, which is dominating the market lately.

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Thursday, April 26th

The EUR/USD pair was trading on a positive note during this Asian session, having bounced off its recent 2-month lows, marked at 1.2160 spot, due to slight downside correction of the US dollar. However, further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely in wake of increasing cautiousness, as now all market’s attention remains focused to the ECB meeting, which will take place during the European trading session. It is expected that the Bank will keep its stance unchanged, especially taking into account that the last meeting indicated an economic slowdown of the EZ in the beginning of the year. However, any comments of President M.Draghi during the subsequent press conference regarding any changes in Bank’s aggressive bond buying program will be able to spark volatility on the pair. Besides the key market-moving event of this Thursday, investors will also pay attention to the US data releases, which will also help the pair to form its short-term trajectory today.

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Friday, April 27th

The EUR/USD pair again came under bearish pressure in early Europe, having refreshed its 3-month lows below the level of 1.2100, after brief consolidation phase, seen during the Asian session. Yesterday the pair received another bearish impetus following uninformative outcome of the ECB meeting. Moreover, during the subsequent Q&A session the ECB President M. Draghi mostly reiterated all we heard before, saying that QE program would last until sustained inflation adjustment. Also Mr. Draghi added that the ECB didn’t discuss the outlook for monetary policy, thus avoiding any further comments regarding Bank’s plans. In general, the ECB President sounded cautious and concerned, thus sending the pair nearly a cent lower, towards the level of 1.2100. Today investors will focus their attention on the German unemployment rate and the US preliminary GDP figures, which will help the pair to form its near-term trajectory at the end of this week.

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Wednesday, May 2nd

The EUR/USD pair managed to correct above its psychological level of 1.2000 this Wednesday, after testing the region of 1.1980, which is the lowest level in the last 4 months. It seems that US bulls have eased pressure across the market in wake of a typical cautiousness ahead of the FOMC meeting, which will take place during the NA session. It is widely expected, that the regulator will keep its interest rate unchanged, while any comments regarding further plans of the Fed will be able to spark some volatility across the market. Today the CB is likely to confirm market expectations of a June rate hike, however, the main market-moving event will be if the Bank points to 3 rate hikes this year. Besides the FOMC meeting, investors will also pay attention to the German PMI and the US ADP jobs report, but broad cautiousness will limit market’s reaction on these releases.

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Thursday, May 3rd

The EUR/USD pair has finally found some buying interest, having bounced off its 5-month lows, located at 1.1938. Today offered tone of the US dollar remains the key theme across the market, allowing the pair to recover some part of its losses. Recent downside correction of the greenback is mainly attributed to yesterday’s FOMC meeting, where the regulator failed to surprise investors. The Bank left its interest rate unchanged on the level of 1.5%, matching broad market expectations. Moreover, the Fed stressed that sees inflation close to its target level of 2% and expects the extension of gradual growth of the economy. However, the regulator did not offer any comments regarding the acceleration of interest rate growth, leaving in the prospect only two rate hikes this year. On the data front, today all eyes will remain glued to the preliminary EZ inflation data, while the next risky event for the pair is scheduled for this Friday, as the US will release NFP, which will bring spike of volatility across the market.

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Monday, May 7th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Monday, having refreshed its intraday lows at 1.1938 spot. It seems that demand for the US dollar has improved across the market, forcing the pair to step closer to its multi-month lows, marked on the level of 1.1911 last Friday in wake of data from the US labor market. At the end of the last week, the US released the NFP report, which failed to match market expectations, however, the US dollar still rose against its major competitors, as the overall US unemployment rate showed positive results. Moreover, growing divergence between the ECB and Fed also keeps the pair under pressure lately on the back of market expectations for two Fed interest rate hikes this year. As for the data for today, the economic calendar won’t be able to offer us anything interesting, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend during this trading session.

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Tuesday, May 8th

The EUR/USD pair remains directionless this Tuesday, trading within its intraday range of 1.1910-40, as US bulls seem to have taken a breather, allowing the pair to stall its retreat. However, the pair looks very fragile lately, having retested yesterday its 4-month lows below the level of 1.1900. Recent weakness of the pair is mainly explained by broad demand for the US dollar and increased divergence between the Fed and ECB, as Fed plans to perform 2 rate hikes this year, while the ECB sees only a slight improvement in the EZ economy, without any hints at further monetary policy tightening. As for economic events, today in early Europe the Fed Chair J. Powell will deliver his speech, while during the NA session the US will release JOLTs jobs report and the US President D. Trump will announce his decision on the Iranian nuclear program.

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Wednesday, May 9th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend and extends its downside trend, having again refreshed its multi-month lows on the level of 1.1826. Weakness of the pair is still explained by the continuing demand for the US dollar, as investors expect to see more hawkish monetary policy from the Fed this year. Moreover, the bullish dynamics of the US dollar was additionally underpinned by yesterday’s announcement of the US President D. Trump, who decided to withdraw the US from the Iran deal. There is no clear explanation, why the US dollar gained additional bullish momentum after Mr. Trump’s decision, but some market participants believe that the rise in oil prices, triggered by the US President’s announcement, could accelerate Fed monetary policy tightening pace. On the data front, today the US economy will offer investors only the PPI report, so broad market trend, determined by the US dollar dynamics, will continue to navigate the pair.

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Thursday, May 10th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend, correcting higher from its multi-month lows, marked on the level of 1.1823 a day before. Today’s recovery of the pair is mostly attributed to a softer price dynamics of the US dollar, caused by increased cautiousness ahead of crucial US data. Many market participants believe that positive US inflation data will help the Fed to accelerate monetary policy tightening pace in the form of another rate hike this year. This outcome will expand the divergence between the Fed and ECB, which will increase pressure on the euro by its American rival. Meanwhile, today the EZ economic calendar won’t offer investors anything important, so all market’s attention will remain glued to the US CPI report. However, today traders will also pay attention to the BoE meeting, which will provide some correlation impetus to the pair during European trades.

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Friday, May 11th

The GBP/USD pair remains pressured at the end of the week after yesterday’s volatile session, as markets continue to digest the outcome of the BoE meeting. As it was widely expected, yesterday the UK’s CB left its interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, which was caused by a series of weak British economic data. In additional to that, all MPC members agreed that any further increases in rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent. And finally, during its meeting the Bank lowered its near-term forecasts on inflation and GDP. All these developments exerted considerable pressure on the pound, forcing the pair to refresh its 4-month lows below the level of 1.3500. Now markets expect for a rate hike sometime in August or November, but it will be possible if UK's economic situation improves significantly. However, the pair managed to turn around and recovered some positions above its psychological level of 1.35, following another disappointment of Thursday – weak US inflation data, which forced US bulls to take a breather and allowed the major currencies to correct higher against the greenback, including the pound. But today, nothing much is scheduled in the data calendar, so investors will continue to digest recent economic events, thereby forming near-term trajectory of the pair.

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