Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 19, April 2011
Hello everybody,
Yesterday market has shown strong plunge. Fundamentally it comes from Greece restructuring debt request and stunning news of US credit rating review with negative forecast by S&P.
Technically, looks like I underestimate the power of monthly Fib resistance area and multiple targets that stand around it. If you remember we've discussed inside days trading sessions and once we said, that market is building an energy. But someday this energy should be released - that has happened, market has shown strong trend day. If you have followed our weekly trading plan - you should not be caught in Long position, because market stands below pivot all the time...
Although odds have suggested that market makers should grab stops above 1.45 - that has not happened. Now I think that market has short-term bearish bias.
On Daily time frame you can see excellent angle of piercing signal on MACD. Market has reached daily confluence support. Here it could show some bounce up, that we can use to enter on the short side of the market. The nearest target of the market is 1.4050 area- daily Confluence support, oversold and monthly pivot point.
On 4-hour chart we see nice thrust down, trend holds bearish. HEre is nice context for B&B Sell trade, that could start from 1.4270-1.43 area - this is long term support line, Fib reistance. Stop could be placed above 1.4350 - 0.618 Fib resistance and as you can see, 4-hour chart remains bearish only till that area.
Besides, when daily and 4-hour trends strongly bearish, market is not an oversold, we should use nearest Fib resistance for entering on short side.
Although market stands at Daily confluence support - it has been tested once already and deeply penetrated. I suspect that it will not be so strong during second touch.
P.S.
If you like FX math and want to check yourself - welcome to FPA FX School. New chapters have been released there:
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-military-school/
Hello everybody,
Yesterday market has shown strong plunge. Fundamentally it comes from Greece restructuring debt request and stunning news of US credit rating review with negative forecast by S&P.
Technically, looks like I underestimate the power of monthly Fib resistance area and multiple targets that stand around it. If you remember we've discussed inside days trading sessions and once we said, that market is building an energy. But someday this energy should be released - that has happened, market has shown strong trend day. If you have followed our weekly trading plan - you should not be caught in Long position, because market stands below pivot all the time...
Although odds have suggested that market makers should grab stops above 1.45 - that has not happened. Now I think that market has short-term bearish bias.
On Daily time frame you can see excellent angle of piercing signal on MACD. Market has reached daily confluence support. Here it could show some bounce up, that we can use to enter on the short side of the market. The nearest target of the market is 1.4050 area- daily Confluence support, oversold and monthly pivot point.
On 4-hour chart we see nice thrust down, trend holds bearish. HEre is nice context for B&B Sell trade, that could start from 1.4270-1.43 area - this is long term support line, Fib reistance. Stop could be placed above 1.4350 - 0.618 Fib resistance and as you can see, 4-hour chart remains bearish only till that area.
Besides, when daily and 4-hour trends strongly bearish, market is not an oversold, we should use nearest Fib resistance for entering on short side.
Although market stands at Daily confluence support - it has been tested once already and deeply penetrated. I suspect that it will not be so strong during second touch.
P.S.
If you like FX math and want to check yourself - welcome to FPA FX School. New chapters have been released there:
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-military-school/
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