FOREX PRO Weekly January 28- February 01, 2013

[Marky$]

Hi Sive,

I've just read the "Chapter 21, Part II. The Power of Interest Rates" of Forex Military School.
According to formula you have given there, the EURUSD rate for a year from now is 1.346*(1+0.0075)/(1+0.0025)=1.352
Does it mean that rate is near to the equilibrium of the end of year?
How to deal with it? Should we take it into consideration in current daily/weekly analysis?

 

[georgeta]

GBPUSD could also give another directional DiNapoli signal on Daily : Double Top Failure. Both conditions are there: Support at a fibnode (61.8 of the minor reaction) and consolidation right bellow neckline. The confirmation of this signal will be if price will close above the neckline again.

 

[BeeKay8]

DRPO on hourly is now confirmed.

Remember two weeks ago we had really cunning price action for the DRPO "Sell". Market hit DRPO "Sell" Failure level but then continued down so if you are playing this DRPO then remember to set SL higher!

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

I've just read the "Chapter 21, Part II. The Power of Interest Rates" of Forex Military School.
According to formula you have given there, the EURUSD rate for a year from now is 1.346*(1+0.0075)/(1+0.0025)=1.352
Does it mean that rate is near to the equilibrium of the end of year?
How to deal with it? Should we take it into consideration in current daily/weekly analysis?

Marky, the forward rates are only the single part in a puzzle. We could say that this calculation is reasonable, if market will not get any news and events within a year. This is mostly used for calculation of attractivness of rate difference, compares to volatility and calculate reasonable discount rate for valuation for particular currency.

GBPUSD could also give another directional DiNapoli signal on Daily : Double Top Failure. Both conditions are there: Support at a fibnode (61.8 of the minor reaction) and consolidation right bellow neckline. The confirmation of this signal will be if price will close above the neckline again.

Hi Georgeta,
could you please attach charts, since it will help others to see your analysis...

DRPO on hourly is now confirmed.

Remember two weeks ago we had really cunning price action for the DRPO "Sell". Market hit DRPO "Sell" Failure level but then continued down so if you are playing this DRPO then remember to set SL higher!

View attachment 8130

Hi Brandon.
Recall that we've discussed DRPO after new top to Butterfly completion point. That has not happened. Currenty this DRPO looks poor, since tops are blur - that is not typical for DRPO pattern, mostly due it's market mechanics. So probably it is better treat current action as pennant or triangle, rather than DRPO...

 

[Venelin]

Hi guys,
heads up for possible 1H RRT in cable!

 

[BeeKay8]

Think we got a Butterfly "SELL" On M30. Could this initiate the downmove?

 

[BeeKay8]

Hey Sive,

I know you said it is better to treat yesterday's hourly pattern as pennant or triangle but could we also say it was a DRPO LAL?

If not, what defines if it is a LAL or not?

Thanks!

Best,
Brandon

 

[4xpipsense]

Thanks Sive

 

[Sive Morten]

Think we got a Butterfly "SELL" On M30. Could this initiate the downmove?

View attachment 8144

Yes, I also think about it... Let's see what will happen

Hey Sive,

I know you said it is better to treat yesterday's hourly pattern as pennant or triangle but could we also say it was a DRPO LAL?

If not, what defines if it is a LAL or not?

Thanks!

Best,
Brandon

Personally, I wouldn't call it as LAL. But this area is too specific and personal, since there is no strict definition what is a LAL and what is not. In general, when we speak about any pattern we have to understand its market mechanics. The point is that such tops as we have - do not correspond to normal DRPO action. DRPO is exhausting pattern and second top is capitulation of bulls - last challenge before collapse. That's why it should be significant. From that perspective - this is not a LAL. But if we have, say, thrust with small penetration of 3x3 or closes not strictly above-below-above, too much consolidation between tops, compares to the thrust. Something of that sort - this could be LAL.
But that is just common observation, each case is unique.

 

[Marky$]

Hi guys,

I know that you may see something else depending on time zone.
I have nice DRPO on H4 (GMT+1 time zone).
What do you think about that?