FOREX PRO Weekly January 28- February 01, 2013

[BeeKay8]

4H Butterfly "SELL" has failed.

Bigger AB-CD on Daily has reached 127.2% target and is about 30 pips away from 161.8% target.

Smaller AB-CD on Daily has just reached 127.2% target. 161.8% target is at 1.3690.....

Sive, when we encounter completion targets of patterns and resistance like we did a few days ago at 1.3485 area, would it be wise to anticipate this resistance by setting a short order just above the resistance so you can catch the top to sell it (if market does not proceed up of course) or would it be better to just wait for some intraday patterns to short it?

Should we ever anticipate a short (or long) by putting the short order just above the resistance when we know market has completed multiple targets and at resistance? Or is that too risky and not a good move because we have no clear patterns?

Thanks, Sive!

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

another sell butterfly on daily tf

Sive sir and all my frenz plz correct me if its wrong

 

[Zoli71]

When you say GBP, do you mean GBP/USD cross?

 

[Sive Morten]

View attachment 8186 Sir thanks for your wonderful analysis on Euro/Usd ,

sir its a chart of Eur/Aud its break 100% expension and before hit 127 its started falling i take a short on retracement . my question is did i trade it correctly as CD leg is lot slower than AB leg.and also confused about take profit . its minimum 61.8 of AD leg or CD leg ?

Hi gyanirahul,
it's a bit difficult to coment based only on your chart... Here, probably you should look at daily, since I suspect that where is your "A" point - it could be end of BC leg of Larger AB-CD pattern... Recent swing up could be a context for DRPO "Sell". If it really so - you may use as profit objective 50% support of your CD leg or, donward AB=CD.

4H Butterfly "SELL" has failed.

Bigger AB-CD on Daily has reached 127.2% target and is about 30 pips away from 161.8% target.

Smaller AB-CD on Daily has just reached 127.2% target. 161.8% target is at 1.3690.....

Sive, when we encounter completion targets of patterns and resistance like we did a few days ago at 1.3485 area, would it be wise to anticipate this resistance by setting a short order just above the resistance so you can catch the top to sell it (if market does not proceed up of course) or would it be better to just wait for some intraday patterns to short it?

Should we ever anticipate a short (or long) by putting the short order just above the resistance when we know market has completed multiple targets and at resistance? Or is that too risky and not a good move because we have no clear patterns?

Thanks, Sive!

Hi Brandon,
It depends on many things. First, if you do not very skillful on intraday charts - then you can. In general, we use patterns and other staff right for that purpose - since they increase our probability. Hence, we should succeed oftener than fail and our risk/reward is greater than 1.
Second it depends on strategy. If you trade, say, pure harmonic patterns, especially on hourly chart, then this is most often way to act. But if you trade them on daily or weekly and have a lot of time - then, probably its better to get confirmation from price action on daily or 4 H charts. Besides, you possibly will not be able to take risk of your stop order from, say weekly butterfly.
I use as first as second ways. Sometimes, I use both. For example - take position right at completion point of butterfly with 30% of my position. If market will confirm it by some pattern - I can increase position and protect first entry with breakeven. As we deal with it in Forex Military school.

There will not be strict to answer here. It depends on situation, time frame and other nuances. But you can use scale entry - that is nice solution, if you don't sure. You will not risk much, not skip the trade and could add more if get some confirmation pattern.

View attachment 8202

another sell butterfly on daily tf

Sive sir and all my frenz plz correct me if its wrong

Hi Lolly,

Well, butterfly is OK, although personally I prefer to get Butterfly "sell" on tops. Your pattern is on bottom, but shape is correct.

When you say GBP, do you mean GBP/USD cross?

Yep, Cable - GBP/USD.

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

thank you sir

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

now crab
butterfly fly away....
next hope for Crab" 224 or 361

 

[pragmatic]

Cable

I succeed to a good entry on B&B Sell, so I just want to show what Sive is teaching here:

Context: B&B on Daily. Good thrust down. Today is the second day of 3x3 penetration. Price is close to 38.2 retracement.

Enter the trade at 100 expansion on H1 and 3 Drive Sell on lower time frames. The Stop was placed initially according to 3 Drive rules, so very tight. Later I moved SL to BE.

I Hope it will reach the target, 61.8 retracement of the move up.

Thank you Sive!



It failed miserably. There is still a chance to catch the B&B Sell from the 38.2. I am not so confident now because the price is accelerated and returned above the neckline of Weekly Double Top.

 

[Venelin]

Hi Sive,
I have a question in regards of S&P. On daily chart I see a RRT formed. Also 2 butterflies 127.2 ext. from the lower one (X=1465.38) already hit. In combination with RRT this could be very powerful down move! My question is-is it permissible to use lower X point for btfly, as oppose to "orthodox " X point(1474.36) in which case 127.2 sell point would be slightly higher?! Please see the screenshot attached!
Thank you for your time!

 

[cosmos]

Hi Sive, Since July when EURUSD hit 1.20411, I have been trading a 3-Drive-Buy on the Weekly time frame, which had a target of 1.3486. which has now been met. Now, I will be watching for signs of a B&B Sell on Monthly. Please see attached files. I hope you will comment on this plan in case I have it wrong.

 

[BeeKay8]

Hi Brandon,
It depends on many things. First, if you do not very skillful on intraday charts - then you can. In general, we use patterns and other staff right for that purpose - since they increase our probability. Hence, we should succeed oftener than fail and our risk/reward is greater than 1.
Second it depends on strategy. If you trade, say, pure harmonic patterns, especially on hourly chart, then this is most often way to act. But if you trade them on daily or weekly and have a lot of time - then, probably its better to get confirmation from price action on daily or 4 H charts. Besides, you possibly will not be able to take risk of your stop order from, say weekly butterfly.
I use as first as second ways. Sometimes, I use both. For example - take position right at completion point of butterfly with 30% of my position. If market will confirm it by some pattern - I can increase position and protect first entry with breakeven. As we deal with it in Forex Military school.

There will not be strict to answer here. It depends on situation, time frame and other nuances. But you can use scale entry - that is nice solution, if you don't sure. You will not risk much, not skip the trade and could add more if get some confirmation pattern.

Thanks for explaining, Sive!