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Forex Signal (Thur July 22, 2010 4:30am EST NY Time) UK Retail Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jul 21, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Today’s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched as this is a high impact yet tradable report. Here is the forecast for this release:

    4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.6%
    ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.0% SELL -0.1%


    The Trade Plan
    Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.

    Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.5% to BUY and 0.6% to SELL. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. We’ll be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 1.0% or better release, and SELL GBP/USD if we get a -0.1% or worse.

    I'd recommend a after release retracement trade, or Retracement Trading Method to trade this release. To learn more:
    Henry's Retracement Method

    The Market
    Market sold off GBP yesterday on mixed outlook in the UK's economy but recovered sharply after BOE Sentance's bullish comments on the fact that market should not dismiss an end of the year rate hike from BOE. However, GBP suffered again after the release of today's MPC meeting minutes, which showed a 7-1 vote against Sentance. This led to GBP/USD dropping down to the 1.5200... GBP lost further against USD during Fed. Chief Bernanke's testimony over the "unusual uncertainty" over the economic recovery. Traders responded by buying US Treasuries.

    Additional Thoughts
    BOE Sentance did raise a valid point, especially after the amount of government spendings and budget cuts which will definitely help UK's economy and solidify its fundamental outlook in the long run. I believe the situation in UK is looking better and we should see strong resilience in the Sterling. However, the current risk aversion sentiment may continue and weigh down on all risk assets and commodity currencies, therefore we may see some decline in the Sterling for one or two sessions, but it's my opinion that GBP should recover as soon as we get a positive news catalyst.

    I'd be looking to go LONG on GBP/JPY if this pair falls close to the 130 as GBP should strengthen and JPY should weaken in the mid to long term outlook...

    For historical data and charts of UK Retail Sales:
    Historical Charts & Data of UK Retail Sales


    Thanks!


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jul 21, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. sabed ahmed

    sabed ahmed Recruit

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    hello 4rm mumbai

    :embarrassed:sir can u kindly tell me the status of usd/jpy should i go 4 long term?
     
  3. digital_soul

    digital_soul Private, 1st Class

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    Question

    Hi Henry

    Question : Will you be doing weekly/monthly summary or reviews of signals generated like Crazy Cat used to?? ie. how the trade went, potential pips earned etc.

    I think it would be amazing to get these as some reports happen when I'm sleeping so it would be good to know how the report went for other people.

    Thank you for helping us make sense of forex!!
     
  4. West Coast Pips

    West Coast Pips Sergeant

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    Hi everyone

    WCP here again! Just remember UK retail sales has recently changed its reporting. There are now 4 components to this release: retail sales with auto fuel m/m, retail sales with auto fuel y/y, retail sales without auto fuel m/m & retail sales without auto fuel y/y. There is the potential for conflict, but not so likely.
     
    #4 West Coast Pips, Jul 21, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  5. West Coast Pips

    West Coast Pips Sergeant

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  6. Herringtrader

    Herringtrader Private

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    Which one are you trading with gasoline or ex gasoline?
     
  7. West Coast Pips

    West Coast Pips Sergeant

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    I am setting up for both.
     
  8. Ekponsi

    Ekponsi Private

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    Hi Henry,
    This was a good one. Made some pips. Thanks
     
  9. pipstatic

    pipstatic Recruit

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    First time

    First time i ever made so many pips/money....TY HENRY
     
  10. theblacktao

    theblacktao Recruit

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    More Pips

    Made Another 20 Pips. Thanks again Henry
     

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