Forex Signal (Tue February 1, 2011, 4:30am NY Time EST) - UK Manufacturing PMI

Henry Liu

Former FPA Special Consultant
Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator and it’s usually released during early month. Traders pay attention to this release for surprises as this survey may help to shape the general trend of the currency for the rest of the month. Here is the forecast:

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 58.0 Previous 58.3

The Trade Plan

We are looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between the forecast figure and the actual release figure) of around 2.0 ~ 3.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may hint that the future trend of other economic indicators (such as inventory, employment, retail sales, etc..) , therefore market should react to this release with volatility if we get our deviation.

We will be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 60.0 or better, or looking to SELL GBP/USD if we get a 55.0 or worse, we’ll be using the Retracement Trading Method to trade this release. For more information, read:
Henry's News Trading Method

The Market
It seems that GBP is currently neutral with a bit of downside pressure, which is definitely due to the worse than expected GDP release for Q4 2010.

However, with MPC Minutes showing 2 members voting for rate hike and the consistent pressure in recent CPI number, traders may just overlook the GDP figure and focus on what BOE might do in the short-term, which is hiking interest rate...

Additional Thoughts
Officially we are going to be trading Retracement Trade, but if we get a deviation of 4.0 points, it justifies for a spike trade.

Pre-news Considerations
There should be no pre-news for this release.

“UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.”

Historical Chart & Data For UK Manufacturing PMI


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hi,mr.Henry,thank you for sending me your forex trading singals, I like your trading singal but I can't apply it because I 've no experience yet,to tell the truth,I'm a malaysian from State of Sabah, and really a newbie to this trading. I beg that if you can help me,maybe I need a ebook to learn over and over until I get the point.your advise is much appreciated. God Bless You. Thank you. Peter Cham