Admiral Markets
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Upcoming Week's Important Economic Data And Events To Watch
Last week, the US economic data remained mixed with disappointing housing, retail sales and industrial production data and, two regional manufacturing surveys, Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, exceeding expected prints. However, geopolitical concerns in Ukraine and Gaza accompanied with the Fed Chair's semi-annual testimony, indicating the possibilities of the Fed accelerating its plan to hike interest rates should the recent improvement in the US labor market and economic conditions remain on track, drove investors to the traditional safe-haven currencies, the US Dollar and Japanese Yen.
This week, along-with the geopolitical developments, investors will continue focusing on economic data coming out from the US and global economic calendar.
The latest reading on US headline inflation, consumer price inflation (CPI), scheduled for release on Tuesday, is likely to take the center stage. Following its largest monthly increase since May 2013, economists this time expect CPI to register a month-on-month of rise of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to increase by 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI is expected to remain above Fed's medium-term target of 2%.
Following last week's surprisingly disappointing US housing data, fresh readings on existing home sales and new home sales will further assist investors to evaluate the health of the US housing sector. Existing home sales for June, scheduled for release on Tuesday, are expected to continue the positive momentum and rise further to an annualized rate of 4.98 million units. Meanwhile, following a strong gain in May, new home sales for the month of June are expected to retreat a bit to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 485,000 units.
Data pertaining to durable goods orders will be closely scrutinized to support the optimistic views of a faster growth in the second-half of 2014. Durable and core durable goods (excluding transportation items) orders data, scheduled for release on Friday, are estimated to rise 0.4% and 0.6% respectively.
Although, the Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has downplayed the concerns over recent rise in inflation, a higher-than-expected inflation reading accompanied with better-than-expected economic data that would strengthen the case of a faster economic growth and surely raise speculations of an earlier-than-expected rate hike by the US central bank. This would also enhance the chances of continuing near-term recovery for the US Dollar.
From UK, minutes from Bank of England's latest monetary policy meeting, retail sales data and preliminary release of UK's second quarter GDP data will be of keen interest for market players and could set the tone for near-term movement for GBP.
Minutes from BoE's latest policy meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday, could possibly show a growing number of MPC members showing willingness to raise benchmark interest rates. Meanwhile, the first reading of UK's second quarter GDP growth rate, scheduled on Friday, is expected to show the economic growth holding steady and retain 0.8% growth rate. Furthermore, consumer spending, which remains supportive pillar of country's economic recovery, is expected to have remained subdued in June. Experts anticipate retail sales to witness some modest recovery this time, forecasting a rise of 0.2%. A stronger second quarter GDP estimates would reflect UK economy on solid footing and also reinforce the case of the central bank tightening its monetary policy, paving way for a stronger GBP. Furthermore, a high degree of deviation from the expected economic data print could provide the required trigger for GBP to move out of its recent narrow range-bound trade.
Market participants will also be looking for important PMI readings from the Euro-zone along-with German business and consumer climate indices to judge whether region's economic recovery is stalling, which might force ECB to announce further easing measures to stimulate regions economic recovery and to avoid the risk of deflation.
Investors will be particularly focusing on the release of PMI data, a leading indicator of economic health, for both manufacturing and services sector. PMI reading from Euro-zone's two largest economies, France and Germany, along with the broader Euro-zone PMI data for the month of July are scheduled for release on Thursday. The German and broader Euro-zone PMI numbers are expected to continue showing modest expansion, while French PMI data is expected to remain in contraction territory for
In addition to these, German Ifo business climate and Gfk consumer climate, scheduled for release on Friday, could also possibly affect the movement of the common currency, Euro.
Other global economic releases that could possibly impact the moves in the Forex market, especially the Australian Dollar (AUD), includes Australian quarterly CPI data for the quarter ended June 2014, scheduled for release on Wednesday, and Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI data, scheduled for release on Thursday. Australian quarter-on-quarter CPI is expected to register a rise of 0.5%, nearly matching with the rise of 0.5% recorded in the previous quarter. This would provide the headroom for RBA to maintain status-quo monetary policy, which could further extend support to AUD.
Meanwhile, following a move back above 50-point level, separating contraction and expansion territory, for the first time in 2014, the Chinese manufacturing PMI is expected to continue showing expanding manufacturing activity at a slightly faster pace. Being Australia's largest trading partner, key Chinese economic data always has a strong impact on the movement of the Australian Dollar (AUD).
“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”
Last week, the US economic data remained mixed with disappointing housing, retail sales and industrial production data and, two regional manufacturing surveys, Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, exceeding expected prints. However, geopolitical concerns in Ukraine and Gaza accompanied with the Fed Chair's semi-annual testimony, indicating the possibilities of the Fed accelerating its plan to hike interest rates should the recent improvement in the US labor market and economic conditions remain on track, drove investors to the traditional safe-haven currencies, the US Dollar and Japanese Yen.
This week, along-with the geopolitical developments, investors will continue focusing on economic data coming out from the US and global economic calendar.
The latest reading on US headline inflation, consumer price inflation (CPI), scheduled for release on Tuesday, is likely to take the center stage. Following its largest monthly increase since May 2013, economists this time expect CPI to register a month-on-month of rise of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to increase by 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI is expected to remain above Fed's medium-term target of 2%.
Following last week's surprisingly disappointing US housing data, fresh readings on existing home sales and new home sales will further assist investors to evaluate the health of the US housing sector. Existing home sales for June, scheduled for release on Tuesday, are expected to continue the positive momentum and rise further to an annualized rate of 4.98 million units. Meanwhile, following a strong gain in May, new home sales for the month of June are expected to retreat a bit to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 485,000 units.
Data pertaining to durable goods orders will be closely scrutinized to support the optimistic views of a faster growth in the second-half of 2014. Durable and core durable goods (excluding transportation items) orders data, scheduled for release on Friday, are estimated to rise 0.4% and 0.6% respectively.
Although, the Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has downplayed the concerns over recent rise in inflation, a higher-than-expected inflation reading accompanied with better-than-expected economic data that would strengthen the case of a faster economic growth and surely raise speculations of an earlier-than-expected rate hike by the US central bank. This would also enhance the chances of continuing near-term recovery for the US Dollar.
From UK, minutes from Bank of England's latest monetary policy meeting, retail sales data and preliminary release of UK's second quarter GDP data will be of keen interest for market players and could set the tone for near-term movement for GBP.
Minutes from BoE's latest policy meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday, could possibly show a growing number of MPC members showing willingness to raise benchmark interest rates. Meanwhile, the first reading of UK's second quarter GDP growth rate, scheduled on Friday, is expected to show the economic growth holding steady and retain 0.8% growth rate. Furthermore, consumer spending, which remains supportive pillar of country's economic recovery, is expected to have remained subdued in June. Experts anticipate retail sales to witness some modest recovery this time, forecasting a rise of 0.2%. A stronger second quarter GDP estimates would reflect UK economy on solid footing and also reinforce the case of the central bank tightening its monetary policy, paving way for a stronger GBP. Furthermore, a high degree of deviation from the expected economic data print could provide the required trigger for GBP to move out of its recent narrow range-bound trade.
Market participants will also be looking for important PMI readings from the Euro-zone along-with German business and consumer climate indices to judge whether region's economic recovery is stalling, which might force ECB to announce further easing measures to stimulate regions economic recovery and to avoid the risk of deflation.
Investors will be particularly focusing on the release of PMI data, a leading indicator of economic health, for both manufacturing and services sector. PMI reading from Euro-zone's two largest economies, France and Germany, along with the broader Euro-zone PMI data for the month of July are scheduled for release on Thursday. The German and broader Euro-zone PMI numbers are expected to continue showing modest expansion, while French PMI data is expected to remain in contraction territory for
In addition to these, German Ifo business climate and Gfk consumer climate, scheduled for release on Friday, could also possibly affect the movement of the common currency, Euro.
Other global economic releases that could possibly impact the moves in the Forex market, especially the Australian Dollar (AUD), includes Australian quarterly CPI data for the quarter ended June 2014, scheduled for release on Wednesday, and Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI data, scheduled for release on Thursday. Australian quarter-on-quarter CPI is expected to register a rise of 0.5%, nearly matching with the rise of 0.5% recorded in the previous quarter. This would provide the headroom for RBA to maintain status-quo monetary policy, which could further extend support to AUD.
Meanwhile, following a move back above 50-point level, separating contraction and expansion territory, for the first time in 2014, the Chinese manufacturing PMI is expected to continue showing expanding manufacturing activity at a slightly faster pace. Being Australia's largest trading partner, key Chinese economic data always has a strong impact on the movement of the Australian Dollar (AUD).
“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”