Market News from FxPro

[titin]

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst from FxPro reported that the precious metals have shone again in the last seven days. Gold has gained over 5% in that time, while Silver gained 18% from last Wednesday's low, including yesterday's 8% surge.​

Such a powerful uptrend encourages thoughts of a reversal of the two-year downtrend. We also draw attention to additional factors setting up a positive outlook.
An ounce of Silver is close to $21 - surpassing August peaks and recovering to late June levels. However, we also note that the increase did not come suddenly. In September, there was a shift in balance to buyers when Silver did not mirror the strong growth of the dollar and the fall of stock indices.

Last week there was a market reversal, which could be attributed to the desire to balance portfolios for the end of the quarter and the financial year in the USA. However, yesterday's movement in Silver went far beyond balancing. Such strong moves against the trend often act as the start of a new direction.

A bullish divergence in price and RSI was triggered on the weekly charts as the new price low corresponded to higher local lows in the Relative Strength Index.
A sharp spike in the price of Silver brought it back above the 200-week average. A close of the week above $20.8 would confirm the breaking of the downtrend.
However, the upside path should be broken down into multiple phases, at which a brisk ascent may experience significant difficulties. The opposite is also true: the easy climbing to each new level will further encourage buyers.

The next significant hurdle looks to be $22, the lower boundary of the former trading range that operated from September 2020 to May 2022. The 200-day moving average, a meaningful trigger for banks and funds, also lies close to this level.

A consolidation above the $22 level would confirm the idea of breaking the downtrend for broader investors. If successful, the following technical target for the bulls is $28, where Silver reversed from rising to falling in the last two years. Breaking this mark opens a long way to the area of 50, which could take up to two years.
We see Silver as a key to precious metals market sentiment and a precursor to a bullish reversal in gold and overall demand for risky assets.

 

[titin]

Market picture​

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst from FxPro reported that Bitcoin has gained 2.8% over the past 24 hours to $19750 but remains broadly zen. Against the backdrop of falling equity markets, the first cryptocurrency's balanced moves looked like a sign of domestic strength. But yesterday, the equity market marked a sharper rise than cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is one move away from the top end of its trading range ($20300). But only a solid consolidation above this boundary should be considered a meaningful bullish signal.

Ethereum is lying at its 200-week moving average for the third week. Perhaps the entire crypto market lacks an important external driver to switch to growth, although no meaningful decline exists.

News background​

According to CoinShares, investments in cryptocurrencies increased by $10 million last week. The figure rose for the third week in a row, but the scale of investment indicates continued indecision. Bitcoin investments rose by $8m, Ethereum by $6m, and investments to short bitcoin rose by $2m.

According to CryptoQuant, bitcoin outflows from cryptocurrency exchanges have recently intensified, which could be seen as a bullish signal.

US Senator Cynthia Lummis has expressed concerns about the national debt and rising inflation in the US. In her view, citizens should invest in bitcoin to preserve their funds.

According to Nomics, some 12,100 cryptocurrencies have effectively stopped trading this year, turning into "zombies". Technically, the coins exist but have not shown trading volumes for at least a month.

 

[titin]

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst from FxPro reported that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its rate by 25 points to 2.6%, against an expected increase to 2.85%. Previously, the rate had been hiked by 50 points four times since June. The same decision was also predicted by the market this time.

In the commentary on the decision, central bank governor Philip Lowe argued that more hikes were necessary. However, the fact that the RBA has moved ahead of many central banks from developed countries to fine-tune monetary policy has triggered sudden sell-offs.

The AUDUSD pair lost 0.8% to 0.6450 on the surprise from the RBA, but on the back of general optimism in the markets, the pair rocketed higher, reaching 0.6550 at one point. At the time of writing, AUDUSD is trading near the day's lows again as traders overestimate the outlook for monetary policy.

The macroeconomic picture in Australia hardly justifies a move to such fine-tuning, with unemployment near half-century lows and inflation projected at 7¾ with a target of 2-3% in 2022.

Between 2001 and mid-2008, the Aussie was one of the favourite chips in the carry trade game, thanks to the RBA's high rates, trade surplus and impressive economic growth. The RBA's move of monetary policy from a run to one of the first among peers and at lower rates than in the US risks turning the Aussie into a lame duck.

This sudden rate cut also calls into question the AUDUSD's ability to recover quickly from the 0.6500 area as it has for the past 20 years. It now seems that only a similar slowdown in policy tightening from the Fed could keep traders' interest on the Aussie side, and we should watch closely to see if the RBA knows something the rest of the world doesn't see.

 

[FxproNews11]

According to Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst of FxPro, the precious metals have shone again in the last seven days. Gold has gained over 5% in that time, while Silver gained 18% from last Wednesday's low, including yesterday's 8% surge.



Such a powerful uptrend encourages thoughts of a reversal of the two-year downtrend. We also draw attention to additional factors setting up a positive outlook.



An ounce of Silver is close to $21 - surpassing August peaks and recovering to late June levels. However, we also note that the increase did not come suddenly. In September, there was a shift in balance to buyers when Silver did not mirror the strong growth of the dollar and the fall of stock indices.



Last week there was a market reversal, which could be attributed to the desire to balance portfolios for the end of the quarter and the financial year in the USA. However, yesterday's movement in Silver went far beyond balancing. Such strong moves against the trend often act as the start of a new direction.



A bullish divergence in price and RSI was triggered on the weekly charts as the new price low corresponded to higher local lows in the Relative Strength Index.



A sharp spike in the price of Silver brought it back above the 200-week average. A close of the week above $20.8 would confirm the breaking of the downtrend.



However, the upside path should be broken down into multiple phases, at which a brisk ascent may experience significant difficulties. The opposite is also true: the easy climbing to each new level will further encourage buyers.



The next significant hurdle looks to be $22, the lower boundary of the former trading range that operated from September 2020 to May 2022. The 200-day moving average, a meaningful trigger for banks and funds, also lies close to this level.



A consolidation above the $22 level would confirm the idea of breaking the downtrend for broader investors. If successful, the following technical target for the bulls is $28, where Silver reversed from rising to falling in the last two years. Breaking this mark opens a long way to the area of 50, which could take up to two years.



We see Silver as a key to precious metals market sentiment and a precursor to a bullish reversal in gold and overall demand for risky assets.

 

[FxproNews11]

According to Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst of FxPro, The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its rate by 25 points to 2.6%, against an expected increase to 2.85%. Previously, the rate had been hiked by 50 points four times since June. The same decision was also predicted by the market this time.



In the commentary on the decision, central bank governor Philip Lowe argued that more hikes were necessary. However, the fact that the RBA has moved ahead of many central banks from developed countries to fine-tune monetary policy has triggered sudden sell-offs.



The AUDUSD pair lost 0.8% to 0.6450 on the surprise from the RBA, but on the back of general optimism in the markets, the pair rocketed higher, reaching 0.6550 at one point. At the time of writing, AUDUSD is trading near the day's lows again as traders overestimate the outlook for monetary policy.



The macroeconomic picture in Australia hardly justifies a move to such fine-tuning, with unemployment near half-century lows and inflation projected at 7¾ with a target of 2-3% in 2022.



Between 2001 and mid-2008, the Aussie was one of the favourite chips in the carry trade game, thanks to the RBA's high rates, trade surplus and impressive economic growth. The RBA's move of monetary policy from a run to one of the first among peers and at lower rates than in the US risks turning the Aussie into a lame duck.



This sudden rate cut also calls into question the AUDUSD's ability to recover quickly from the 0.6500 area as it has for the past 20 years. It now seems that only a similar slowdown in policy tightening from the Fed could keep traders' interest on the Aussie side, and we should watch closely to see if the RBA knows something the rest of the world doesn't see.

 

[titin]

Market picture

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst from FxPro reported that Bitcoin rose 2.9% in the past 24 hours, surpassing the psychologically significant round level, now trading at $20.2K. Ethereum rose to $1350, adding 2%, which is in line with the entire crypto market valuation growth.
The Bitcoin price is testing its 50-day moving average on Wednesday morning. Decisive buying from the level of this curve could signal the market is moving into the next phase with more active buying. Right now, however, we draw attention to the increased caution of investors in the sector, as the equity market looks much more buoyant.
Glassnode estimates that 78,400 BTC belonging to miners could be at risk of liquidation if bitcoin falls below $18.3K. Volatility could intensify after an extended period of consolidation of around $20K.
News background
Cryptocurrencies are losing popularity as an investment vehicle amid a bear market. According to a Bankrate survey, trust in digital assets has fallen the most among millennials, to 29% from 49% in 2021. The figure fell from 21% to 11% among the older generation.
Analyst firm Bolide Finance said investors prefer trading to stable returns in the DeFi sector, showing positive returns despite the crypto crisis and declining volumes.
International payments company Mastercard has unveiled Crypto Secure, a solution allowing banks to detect and prevent fraud on trading platforms that support cryptocurrencies.
The developers of Telegram’s Wallet bot launched a P2P service for direct buying and selling of bitcoin and Toncoin (TON) between users.

 

[titin]

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst from FxPro reported that S&P500 index futures are trading 6% above the lows set at Monday’s start of the day. Such a solid start for the new month, quarter and financial year in the US is helped in no small part by the low base, as the index ended September at the lows since November 2020, below the 3,600 mark.

The powerful two-day rally suggests that we could see the start of more than just a portfolio shakeout at the start of a new period.

On the bulls’ side, there is another revival of hopes that the monetary watchdogs in the USA and other developed countries will slow down their policy tightening.

The “worse is better” rule was in full effect in the markets yesterday. Markets treat the sharpest drop in job openings as a possible excuse for the Fed to move from a 75-point rate hike to a 50-point step. However, such hopes are overly speculative for a couple of days. There will be official labour market data to which the Fed is paying much more attention.

Nevertheless, we note that the buyers in the S&P500 appeared just after touching the significant 200-week moving average, which was near the 3600 level. The market bounced back from this curve in 2018, 2016 and 2011. A correction towards the 200-week moving average made the stock an attractive buy in all those cases and in the long period from 1980 to 2001. This is how the market tries to stay within the patterns formed after the global financial crisis. In 2020, the panic of covid uncertainty took the market lower, followed by a robust response from governments and central banks that returned the markets to growth within weeks.

In addition to the 200-week average, the stock was helped by the oversold conditions over the past few months, where so many sellers were piling up that it was difficult to find new ones.

However, the bull market has yet to prove itself. From the weekly to the daily chart, we can see that the last sell-off started in mid-August and failed to get above the 200 SMA. The first technically solid sign of a break of this trend would be for the S&P500 to consolidate above 3900 (61.8% of momentum).

The potential buyers should pay more attention to the index’s performance around 4000, where the 50-day average is hovering, and around 4200, with the 200-day average near. Only firm buying from these levels will indicate that we are witnessing a fundamental reversal of the market sentiment and not a rally in the bear market. In turn, only a change in the tone of the Fed and other central banks could perhaps support such buying.

 

[titin]

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst from FxPro reported that unlike the RBA yesterday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand met expectations by raising its key rate by 50 points to 3.5%. Having started raising the rate a year ago, the RBNZ accelerated the move from 25 to 50 points in April, bringing it to the cyclical highs of 2014-15.

The Reserve Bank cites too high core inflation (without food and energy) and labour shortages as reasons for further rate hikes. And here, it is worth remembering that at its peak in 2007/08, New Zealand's key rate reached 8.25%, and cyclical lows in 2002 and 2003 were 4.75% and 5.00%, respectively. In other words, the New Zealand economy is more suited to high rates than many.

The NZDUSD is gaining 2.6% so far this week and feels quite comfortable since the beginning of the day, in contrast to the pullback in the dollars on Wednesday morning. On the daily charts, the two September lows formed a double bottom. From roughly the same levels, we saw an intensification of buying in the Kiwi in March 2020.

 

[titin]

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst from FxPro reported that the final estimates of business activity in the euro region were weaker than expected and indicate a further drop in business activity. The composite index fell to 48.1 in September from 48.9 a month earlier. Values below 50 indicate the eurozone has slipped from slowing growth to contracting economies after April's growth peaks.

This indicator is good at predicting Eurozone economic cycles, which is why markets often react to its publication. Today EURUSD has come under pressure and is losing almost 1% since the first publication of the final PMIs that were first published for the individual major economies.

A sharp slowdown in business activity could call into question the ECB's resolve to fight inflation as quickly as possible. In addition, the release of an unexpectedly weaker German trade surplus for August is working against today's single currency. It is also prompting a reassessment of speculations about capital inflows into the region.

The bad news came just when EURUSD was one step away from testing its 50-day moving average, which has often acted as a resistance line to the downtrend of the last 15 months.

 

[FxPro_2022]

Market picture

Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst from FxPro reported that Bitcoin has lost 1.9% over the past 24 hours, trading just below $20K at the time of writing. A sharp spike in stock markets has bogged down in indecision over the past few days, keeping investors in the crypto market, whose capitalisation lost 1.6% overnight to $956, from buying as well.
Once again, the 50-day moving average in BTCUSD acted as local resistance, keeping the market inside the range that has prevailed since the second half of September. Buyers' hesitancy at the 50-day moving average indicates a persistent wait-and-see attitude, which has almost equal chances to both translates into a new downside momentum and reborn into growth.
The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index dropped 3 points to 23 by Friday and moved back into "extreme fear".

News background

Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, said that we had recently seen some stability in the crypto market. However, the Fed's tightening monetary policy affects all assets, causing cryptocurrencies to fluctuate along with fiat currencies and stock indices.
According to Ark Invest, hoarders have accumulated a record 13.7 million coins, or 71.5% of the total BTC supply, buying the cryptocurrency on the decline since spring. In addition, sellers have all but exhausted their sales potential.
Last week, bitcoin's correlation with gold reached its highest level in more than a year due to a stronger dollar, Kaiko noted. Gold and BTC failed to reassert their haven asset status amid a Fed rate hike.
The EU has imposed a ban on Russian crypto wallets, which will primarily affect the large centralised and regulated Binance and Coinbase, potentially increasing interest in smaller exchanges with softer KYC but generally risking more active cryptocurrency sales.