Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

USD/CAD Bullish Marubozu on Daily Timeframe

The USD/CAD has formed a bullish marubozu (strong momentum candle) on daily timeframe (see the mini daily chart) which marks an uptrend. Retracement towards POC might start at the break of trendline (red). If the price gets to POC (38.2, ATR low, D L4, EMA89) the POC zone should spike the price further up towards D H3 at 1.3513 and D H4/ATR High at 1.3540. Only above 1.3545 we could see 1.3600.

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D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Support)

D H3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Interim Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strong Daily Resistance)

D L4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Support)

D L5 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Daily Support)

W H5 - Weekly H4 Camarilla (Strongest Weekly Resistance)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/JPY Strong Bullish Zig Zag Pattern

The GBP/JPY has been bought on dips after Macron won the first round of French elections. Our Session Recap setup went as expected and now we see a continuation. Equities went bullish and GBP/JPY followed, reaching 143.00 zone. At this point we see a huge MACD divergence which might drop the pair towards POC zone. POC 141.60-90 (D L3, ATR low, trend line, 50.0) could spike the price towards 142.50, 143.00 and 143.80. If we don’t see an entry within POC zone watch for 4h close above 143.30. That should also be a sign for continuation towards above mentioned targets.

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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

 

[Admiral Markets]

PRE-ECB Analysis: EUR/USD Breakouts Possible

The European Central Bank is set to keep its ultra-easy policy stance firmly in place this Thursday afternoon (11:30 AM GMT) but may acknowledge better growth prospects, setting the stage for a small signal as early as June about an eventual reduction of stimulus. Volatility on EUR/USD could be expected.

Technically the EUR/USD 4h chart shows bullish momentum but anything can happen during the ECB conference. Yesterday we had a successful live EUR/USD entry on Wednesday’s Live webinar that made more than 40 pips as of now. The break of 1.0950 should retest 1.0965 and possibly 1.0990-1.1020. However, the break of 1.0820 could close the retail gap around 1.0777 level. Be careful with risk allocation and using of VPS tool is advised.

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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
W H5 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Weekly Resistance)
M H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)
M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)
M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Still Supported Above Retail Gap

The EUR/USD is still supported above the retail gap which showed straight after Macron won the first roundvs Le Pen. Friday is getting close , so we might see profit taking due to Sunday’s final round of presidential elections. 1.0860-45 is POC zone for possible buy trades as the EUR/USD might spike from the zone (W L3, ATR pivot, historical buyers) targeting 1.0930 and 1.0965. A drop below 1.0820 could target 1.0775 and further momentum could also close the retail gap at 1.0730.

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W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H5 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strongest Weekly Resistance)

M H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)

M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)

M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)

POC- Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD 1.0930-1.0950 is Point Of Confluence

The expected win of newly elected president Emmanuel Macron seem to be priced in the market after a successful rally as we shown in the previousEUR/USD analysis. At this point the pair is heading towards the POC zone 1.0930-50 where we could see a possible bounce. As the ATR of EUR/USD is low - only 77 pips, levels to watch for are 1.0990 and 1.1020. However the loss of 1.0930 is a possible signal for a deeper retracement towards 1.0870. Retail gap could only be closed if the pair broke below 1.0820.

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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Super Thursday Event: Running Flat Top Ascending Pattern

The main focus today is BOE interest rate decision with monetary policy summary. This is called Super Thursday event and I expect it to be very volatile. The event is scheduled for 11 AM GMT. The BOE will also present its quarterly inflation report which has been updated. We might see two-way price movement.

The pattern that is formed is called - running flat top ascending triangle. It is a running pattern because the apex of the triangle has not been established yet. This suggest two way price movement, that could be also fueled with Balance of Trade date today. There are two zones traders should focus on at this point.1.2995 is a strong resistance and a break of 1.2995 (D H5, ATR high) may target 1.3025 to 1.3050 - Weekly H3 camarilla pivot and round number resistance. Break of lower zone (D L3, ATR pivot) 1.2916 might target even 1.2825 level - Weekly L5 camarilla. I suggest you use VPS tool in the case you want to trade GBP/USD today.

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Daily Confluence At Support

The USD/JPY is currently supported at POC zone 113.40-60 (Trend line, D L3, Order block, EMA89) and we might see a spike towards D L3 - 114.10. The pair is in uptrend on intraday (H1) and intra week (H4) charts. 1h or 4h candle close above 114.10 should provide additional strength in this pair, targeting 114.35 (ATR high) and 114.75 (D L5) if we see additional volatility. W H3 and ATR low should hold (113.15) if bulls want to remain in control. Bears would only have control below D L5 (112.90). If that happens during next days we might expect 112.15 as the target.

Adding to that we haveUS Inflation data todayso the combination of US data and profit taking could be volatile for this pair.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/NZD Uptrend Intact

The GBP/NZD has almost closed the retail gap with a slow grind towards D L3 that stands in a confluence with the gap. At this point the price is getting close to the POC zone 1.8685-1.8705 (D L3, Retail gap close, 78.6, bullish order blocks, ATR pivot). As long as 1.8608 support holds we might see a rejection towards 1.8870 ATR/D H4 confluence. Only above 1.8880 the price might go for a full retest of 1.8969.

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUD/NZD Uptrend Intact

The AUD/NZD has formed a bearish Wolfe Wave after the retail gap that pushed the price up. The pair is still in downtrend on 4h time frame, so it could piggyback momentum from higher time frames to H1 chart. That means a potential bearish trade setup when Point 5 has been formed. Type 1 setup might happen when the price enters the POC zone (ATR high,Wolfe Wave point 5) 1.0805-0812. The rejection could target the EPA (Estimated Price at Arrival) target 1.0743. If the pair breaks above 1.0812 then traders should wait for the price to again close below 1-3 line for the Type 2 setup.

Type 1 setup - Price enters the POC zone

Type 2 setup - Price goes above the 1-3 line then break back below it

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/CHF Could Start Correction Soon

The GBP/CHF has formed a regular bullish divergence at Daily L5 support and currently shows a potential for upside correction. The POC zone 1.2665-75 (Multiple bottom, ATR pivot, historical buyers) might spike the price towards L4 and L3 (1.2759 and 1.2828). Have in mind that L4 (1.2759) is a strong resistance and price needs to break above potential head and shoulders pattern to proceed further up. At this point the price is supported by POC zone and bullish divergence and until 1.2759 is hit we should see an upside price action.