Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD and EURNZD

Following its recent declines, the Euro-zone common currency, EUR, on Wednesday gained sharply against USD after the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which was mostly considered to be dovish. EUR also managed to hold some of its early gains against GBP and AUD but failed to appreciate against NZD. On Thursday, the currency continued to strengthen against the broadly weakening USD but is trading weak against GBP, AUD and NZD.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update on some important EUR pairs - EURUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD and EURNZD.

EURUSD

The pair on Wednesday, decisively conquered 1.2690-1.2700 resistance area, breaking above the short-term descending trend-channel resistance, and now seems all set to continue appreciating towards 1.2830-50 resistance area, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of May to Oct. 2014 sharp fall. Moreover, further strength above the immediate resistance area now seems to provide additional lift to the pair back towards 1.2900 resistance mark. Meanwhile on the downside, 1.2720-1.2700 zone, the trend-channel break-out area, now seems to protect immediate downside for the pair. Only a decisive break below this immediate support area, leading to a subsequent weakness towards 1.2610-1.2600 strong support area, might possibly negate the bullish expectations and the pair then could lower, even below 1.2500 mark, towards 1.2450 support area.

EURGBP

After nearly testing 0.7900 round figure mark resistance, the pair dipped marginally on Thursday, confirming a strong resistance near 0.7900 area. Moreover, 0.7900 level is closely followed by a strong resistance at 50-day SMA, currently near 0.7920 level. Furthermore, the pair is trading in a well established descending trend-channel, possibly indicating lower possibilities of clearing the 0.7900 resistance area and moving higher further towards 0.8000 strong psychological resistance area, also coinciding with the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel. Meanwhile on the downside, previous resistance near 0.7820-0.7800 zone now seems to provide immediate support for the pair, which if broken could further drag the pair back towards testing a fresh 2-year low and find support at the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, currently near 0.7740 area.

EURAUD

The pair continues hovering around 100-day SMA region and is now facing a stiff resistance near 1.4450 horizontal area. However, 1.4300-1.4280 zone on the downside, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level of Jan. to Sept. 2014 down-leg, remains key pivot point for deciding the near-term trajectory for the pair. Should the pair continue holding above this important support area and manage to climb back above 1.4450 resistance, it seems more likely to surpass 1.4560-80 resistance zone (38.2% Fib. retracement level) and could be aiming towards 1.4800 resistance level, representing 50% Fib. retracement level. However, a break below 23.6% retracement level support might trigger a fresh leg of downward momentum towards 1.4060-40 important horizontal support area.

EURNZD

After testing 61.8% Fib. retracement level of Dec. 2013 to July 2014 downfall, the pair has been continuously witnessing weakness and is now heading back towards 200-day SMA region, currently near 1.6000 psychological mark also coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level. A decisive drop back below the 200-day SMA might negate the chances of any further up-move for the pair and the pair then could easily drop back towards 1.5800 mark, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Alternatively, a bounce back from 200-day SMA and a subsequent strength above 1.6150-70 resistance area could lift the pair back towards 1.6400 important resistance area.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: EURCAD, EURCHF, GBPCAD and GBPCHF

Earlier in the week higher Ivey PMI numbers strengthened Canadian Dollar against majority of its counterparts; however, during later days, building permits declined markedly and the IMF’s release of downwardly revised global growth forecast caused worries for this commodity currency. On the other hand, Swiss unemployment rate matched previous level of 3.2% while the retail sales advanced to 1.9% after a dip and the CPI also increased to 0.1% from the previous reading of 0.0%. With the Canadian employment numbers left for publishing on Friday, Canadian Dollar has important indicator to consider while determining near-term movement of the Looine; the Switzerland has nothing to release during the rest of the week.

Meanwhile, the following the brief technical overview of EURCAD, EURCHF, GBPCAD and GBPCHF.

EURCAD

With the MACD reversing from oversold region, the EURCAD is targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its July-2013 to March-2014 up-move, near 1.4250, breaking which the 1.4330 and the important horizontal resistance zone, 1.4410 – 1.4420, can cap the near-term up-move of the pair. Should the pair breaks the 1.4420, higher are the chances that it’ll test 1.4630 on the successful break of 1.4500, which includes 100-day SMA and 50% Fibo. level. On the downside, 1.4040 and 76.4% Fibo. level near 1.3930 are likely to provide immediate supports to the pair. On the successful close below 1.3930, the pair is likely to test sub-1.3700 support level.

EURCHF

Failure to surpass the horizontal line resistance level of 1.2130 caused the pair to plunge towards 1.2085 – 1.2080 support zone, breaking which the pair is likely to re-test multiple support levels near 1.2050. A sustained close below 1.2050 can cause the pair to test important support level of 1.1200 which marks the medium-term bottom for the pair. On the upside, the horizontal resistance line together with the 100-day EMA near 1.2130 can become strong resistance for the pair, breaking which 1.2150 and the 1.2175 can become consequent resistance levels for the pair. On the close above 1.2175, the pair can rally towards 1.2230 and the 61.8% Fibo. level near 1.2250.

GBPCAD

GBPCAD kept following the ascending trend line and is trading near 1.7990 and 1.8000 levels by signaling a rally towards the 100-day SMA and the horizontal line resistance of 1.8200; however, 1.8050 can become intermediate stop for the pair. On the sustained break of 1.8200, the pair can rally towards 1.8330 and 1.8460 quickly. Alternatively, a break of ascending trend line support near 1.7910 can cause the pair to decline towards the re-test of 1.7750 and 1.7680 before testing the 1.7500 psychological support level which also includes 38.2% Fibo. level of its July-2013 to February 2014 up-move.

GBPCHF

Inability to sustain a break of 1.5500 together with the MACD reversal from overbought levels pushing the GBPCHF towards 1.5280 support level, coinciding 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its March low to recent high. A break of 1.5280 is closely followed by the 100-day SMA near 1.5230, breaking which important support zone, 1.5130 - 1.5120, can become strong rest for the pair, which also encompasses 38.2% Fibo. level. On the upside, a break of 1.5470 can cause the pair to against rally towards the break of 1.5500. Should the pair closes above 1.5500, 1.5730 becomes next critical resistance for the pair traders to watch.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Equity Indices - Technical Update

Following Wednesday's sharp rally, US equity indices nose-dived on Thursday, giving up all of its gains registered on Wednesday and taking the indices close to their important support levels. Also on Friday the indices futures are trading with mild weakness, suggesting a softer opening.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for major US equity indices - Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Dow Jones [DJI30]

The index is hovering around an important support confluence near 16,600 level, comprising of 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Feb. to Sept. 2014 up-move. This 16,600 area also coincides with the lower trend-line support of a descending channel formation on short-term charts. Hence, should the index sustains trading below this important support, it could easily continue with the recent corrective move and drop to another important support near 16,350 level, marking 50% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile on the upside, 16,700 area now seems to provide immediate strong resistance. Any up-move beyond this immediate strong resistance is likely to be capped at another strong resistance near 16,800 horizontal area, which if conquered might possibly negate the bearish outlook.

S&P 500 [SP500]

The index seems to be aiming for a very important support confluence near 1910-15 area, comprising of 200-day SMA, a medium-term ascending trend-line support extending from June 2013 through lows tested in Oct. 2013 and Feb. 2014, and 23.6% Fib. retracement level of June 2013 to Sept. 2014 bull-run. A decisive break below this important support is likely to confirm continuation of the corrective move towards its next support near 1845-50 zone, represented by 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Alternatively, a pull-back from this important support could get extended till 1940-45 horizontal resistance, which if conquered could take the index back towards 2000 psychological mark resistance.

Nasdaq 100 [NQ100]

On short-term chart, the index is finding support near 3930 level comprising of 100-day SMA and lower trend-line support of a descending channel. However, looking at the bigger picture the index has already broken below 23.6% Fib. retracement level of April to Sept. 2014 up-swing, suggesting that the index could possibly break below this immediate support and continue drifting lower towards 3850 support region marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level. However, a decisive strength back above 23.6% Fib. retracement level, 3960-80 zone, seems to lift the index back above 4000 mark towards 4040-50 resistance area.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: Gold and Silver

Recently announced downward revision of global growth forecast by IMF together with the US Dollar weakness, on the back of FOMC minutes’ announcement, provided strong support to the precious metal prices that were declining heavily. Gold prices rallied more than 2.5% during the current week while Silver prices are on the way to secure its first positive weekly close by registering 3% gain.

GOLD

Inability to break important support level coupled with the fundamental backing and the RSI reversal helped gold prices to trigger a rally towards the break of descending trend channel. However, 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of its December – 2013 to March – 2014 up-move, near $1233, is restricting the yellow metal’s upward journey towards $1240 and the $1257 - $1260 resistance zone, encompassing 50-day SMA and 61.8% Fibo. level. On the successful encounter of $1260, the gold prices become vulnerable to head towards $1295 level with $1275 being intermediate resistance level. On the downside, a break of $1215 negates the trend channel breakout and the bullion again becomes vulnerable to test $1200 and $1182 - $1180 support zone. Should it extends the downturn below $1182, the $1150 level becomes a quick support for the gold prices before testing $1130.

SILVER

Even after registering higher gains than the Gold prices, Silver prices continue observing the descending trend channel and reversed from the channel resistance, near $17.75, on yesterday. From the current level, $17.00 becomes immediate support for the white metal prices, breaking which $16.70 and the channel support line of $16.35 can limit the white metal’s downturn before plunging to horizontal support line of $16.00. A daily close below $16.00 can cause the white metal prices to quickly fall to $14.95. On the upside, a break of trend channel resistance line, $17.60 at present, can cause silver prices to rally till $18.20, encompassing 76.4% Fibo. level of its long up-move connecting October 2010 low to April 2014 high. Moreover, a break of $18.20 can extend the silver prices’ up-move towards 50-day SMA, near $18.70 which becomes medium-term important support turned resistance level.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY

On Monday, the US Dollar continued with its last week's corrective move against most major currencies. However, on Tuesday the US Dollar resumed its upward trajectory as investors keep a close eye on the upcoming economic releases from the US, that includes monthly retail sales, regional manufacturing and housing data.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for some important major currency pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDJPY.

EURUSD

After reclaiming 1.2700 mark, the pair reversed from 1.2770 intermediate resistance area, marked by a short-term descending trend-line visible on 4-hourly chart, and dropped back towards 1.2650. The pair now seems to test a very important short-term support near 1.2620-10 area. A break below 1.2600 support would probably suggest resumption of the descending trend and the pair then could be vulnerable to dip below 1.2500 mark, towards 1.2480-60 support area. Meanwhile, a pull-back from this support area might now confront a resistance at 1.2700 round figure mark, which is followed by the trend-line resistance, currently near 1.2750. A decisive strength above the trend-line resistance could further boost the pair towards 1.2830-50 resistance zone, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of May to Oct. 2014 downfall.

GBPUSD

Following the release of weaker-than-expected UK CPI number, which fell to a five-year low, the pair slumped back below 1.6000 psychological mark, making it vulnerable to continue depreciating towards 1.5900 strong support area, held since 2013. This 1.5900 region also marks a descending trend-line support, which possibly seems to constitute towards forming a bullish reversal chart pattern, Falling Wedge. However, a decisive break below 1.5900 support would indicate continuation of the near-term weakness for the pair at-least till 1.5700-20 support area, marked by 61.8% Fib. retracement level of July 2013 to July 2014 big up-swing. Meanwhile on the upside, 1.6000 mark also coinciding with 50% Fib. retracement level, now seems to act as immediate resistance. A more above 1.6000 has the potential to further lift the pair back towards 1.6060 intermediate horizontal resistance and the pull-back could get extended till a short-term descending trend-line resistance, currently near 1.6130 level, also constituting towards a possible formation of a falling wedge on 4-hourly chart.

AUDUSD

After failing to conquer 0.8800-20 strong resistance zone, the pair dropped back towards 0.8700 round figure mark. As could be seen on 4-hourly chart, the pair seems to be forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern. However, the pattern is not completed till the pair breaks below the neckline support, currently near 0.8650 area. A decisive break below the neckline support would confirm continuation of the descending trend for the near-term initially towards 0.8500 region and eventually towards 0.8400 support area, which also happens to be the target of bearish head and shoulders pattern formation. Meanwhile on the upside, 0.8800-20 area has now emerged as an immediate strong resistance, which if conquered might negate the bearish bias. The pair then could easily climb back towards 0.8900 resistance area and continue rising towards 0.9000 psychological mark resistance.

USDJPY

The pair on Monday dropped to test its immediate important support near 106.80-60 area, also marking the intraday low touched on Sept. 16. Should the pair sustain trade below 107.00 mark, 106.80-60 to be precise, it is likely to extend the corrective move in the near-term initially towards 105.50 horizontal support and eventually towards 104.80 important support area. Alternatively, a bounce back from this support area and a subsequent strength above 107.00 mark, leading to a further strength towards 107.40, is likely to trigger an immediate rally towards 108.30-50 horizontal resistance. Furthermore, a move back above 108.00 might indicate resumption of the pair's upward trajectory towards 109.80-110.00 important resistance zone.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook- USDCAD, USDCHF, EURCAD and EURCHF

Last week, even with the mixed economic numbers, Canadian Dollar managed to complete the positive week against its US counterpart; however, it did register weakness against the Euro. Swiss Franc, on the other hand, gained against both these currencies during last week as economic indicators supported the currency. During the current week, Canadian markets remained closed on the first day while there were no economic numbers to flash from Switzerland except PPI which fell behind consensus. Market players are likely to concentrate more on Canadian Manufacturing Sales and CPI numbers, scheduled for Thursday and Friday respectively, in order to determine near-term CAD move while there are no important Swiss releases scheduled for the week.

USDCAD

USDCAD is currently testing the upper line of ascending trend channel, adjacent to important resistance zone of 1.1270 – 1.1280. The pair hasn’t been able to break the mentioned resistance zone in past as well, which together with the overbought levels of MACD supports the plunge of the pair to 1.1160 levels, breaking which 1.1080 can become next support for the pair. On the break of 1.1080, the support line of the trend channel, coupled with the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its September 2013 to March 2014 up-move can provide strong support to the pair near 1.1010 and 1.1000 region. On the upside, a sustained break of 1.1280 is quickly followed by the horizontal resistance line of 1.1340, breaking which the pair can become vulnerable to rally towards 1.1465 – 1.1470 zone.

USDCHF

USDCHF kept following the ascending trend line on H4 chart and keep registering an up-move. The pair currently heading towards important resistance zone of 0.9565 – 0.9570 which coincides the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of its May 2013 to March 2014 downturn and the descending resistance line which connects the recent highs. Should the pair registers a closing above 0.9570, it become vulnerable to rally towards 0.9680; however, the 0.9620 level can provide intermediate stop to the pair. On the break of 0.9680, the 0.9750 can restrict the pair’s up-move before targeting the 2013 high of 0.9838. On the downside, a break of ascending trend line support, near 0.9500 at present, can cause the pair to test 0.9400 support level, breaking which 0.9360 and 0.9300 can become consecutive supports for the pair. Considering the probable MACD reversal and the observance to ascending trend line, the pair is more likely to trade higher than the otherwise.

EURCAD

Descending trend line on Daily chart continues to maintain downside pressure on EURCAD towards 1.4110 and 1.4010 – 1.4000 support zone. On the break of 1.4000, the pair can test 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of its July-2013 to March-2014 up-move, near 1.3940 level. Should the pair closes below 1.3940, it becomes vulnerable to extend its decline towards 1.3775 and 1.3670 support levels. Alternatively, a sustained break of descending trend line resistance, 1.4280 at present, can fuel the pair towards 1.4350 before rallying to the important resistance level of 1.4430, coinciding 100-day EMA and multiple support turned resistances. A sustained break of 1.4430 can cause the pair to extend its up-move towards 1.4610; however 1.4500 can become intermediate stop for the pair.

EURCHF

100-day EMA continues to cap the EURCHF up-move. The pair is currently targeting 1.2050 support level, breaking which 1.2030 and the psychological support level of 1.2000 can become consequent supports for the pair. On the upside, 100-day EMA near 1.2130 becomes a strong resistance for the pair, breaking which the pair can rally towards 1.2180 and 1.2200 level; however 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – 2012 to May 2013 up-move, near 1.2150, can become intermediate resistance for the pair.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURGBP, EURAUD and EURJPY

On Tuesday, the Euro-zone common currency, Euro, strengthened against broadly weakening GBP but failed to register any gains against its Australian counterpart, AUD, and continued with its weakening trend against JPY. On Wednesday, EUR resumed its recent weakness and is trading lower against GBP, AUD and JPY.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for some important Euro cross currency pairs - EURGBP, EURAUD and EURJPY

EURGBP

The pair on Wednesday decisively conquered 0.7900 mark, to test its next major resistance near 100-day SMA near 0.7950-60 area. Meanwhile on 4-hourly chart, the pair also seems to have strengthened above the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending channel formation, possibly indicating continuation of its recovery back towards 0.8000 important psychological market resistance, also coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level of March to Sept. 2014 down-leg. Moreover, a sustained trade above 0.8000 mark, seems to immediately lift the pair towards a very important horizontal resistance near 0.8030-40 zone, coinciding with highs tested in June, August and Sept. 2014. On the downside, 50-day SMA, currently near 0.7920-25 zone now seems to protect immediate downside, which is closely followed by a horizontal support near 0.7880 level. A decisive break back below 0.7900 mark, leading to a further dip below 0.7880 support might possibly negate the expectations of further up-move towards 0.8000 psychological mark and the pair could drift back towards 0.7820-0.7800 support area.

EURAUD

Although the pair seems to be trading within an established short-term ascending channel, but has repeatedly failed to decisively clear 1.4550-60 strong resistance area, marking 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Jan. to Sept. 2014 down-fall. Moreover, it has been finding strong support on the downside, near 100-day SMA, at 1.4380-60 zone. Failure to weaken below 100-day SMA, previous strong resistance now turned immediate support, possibly suggests that the pair is more likely to break past the upside strong resistance and could be headed towards 1.4800 resistance area, represented by 50% Fib. retracement level. Alternatively, reversal from 1.4550 strong resistance zone and a subsequent break below 1.4460-50 horizontal support, might negate the expectations of the upside break-out and the pair could be forced to retest 1.4380-60 100-day SMA support area, also coinciding with the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel.

EURJPY

The pair continues trading in a well established medium-term descending trend-channel and the short-term selling pressure seems to have intensified as depicted by formation of another descending channel on daily chart. From current levels the pair seems to continue trending lower towards 134.50 important confluence consisting of lower trend-line support of the medium-term and short-term descending channels. Meanwhile, daily RSI is also approaching short-term oversold conditions, increasing the possibilities of the pair holding this important confluence support. On the upside, 136.00 round figure, closely followed by 136.50 area representing the upper trend-line resistance of the short-term descending channel seems to act as immediate resistance for the pair. A decisive strength above 136.50 resistance, marking a break above the short-term descending trend-channel, seems to further boost the pair towards 50-day SMA region, currently near 137.60-80 zone.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: Important JPY Pairs

Ever since the IMF downgraded its forecast for global growth, during last week, safe haven demand for the Japanese Yen helped the currency to register considerable strength against majority of its counterparts. However, with the Japanese markets closed on Monday and having no important data during the rest of the week, the currency is more likely to follow its technical traits.

Meanwhile, the following is a brief technical overview of EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY and CADJPY pairs.

EURJPY

EURJPY is currently trading near the important horizontal support zone comprising 135.60 – 135.50 region. However, considering the downward slanting RSI and the strength of JPY, it is more likely that the pair can plunge to 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of its November 2013 to December 2013 up-move, near 134.60 level. Should the pair declines further and closes below 134.60, it becomes vulnerable to test 133.50 levels before testing 132.50 support. Alternatively, a reversal from the important support region can pullback the pair towards 136.30 and 61.8% Fibo. level near 136.80 before rallying to 137.90 -138 resistance zone, encompassing 200-day EMA. On the sustained break of 138, the pair can rally to surpass 139.20 levels.

GBPJPY

Even after a break of 200-day EMA, the GBPJPY couldn’t decline further as the ascending trend line support, near 170.30, restricts the pair’s downturn. Moreover, RSI reversal from the oversold region is also supporting the chances of the pair’s pullback. Should it closes above 170.30 level, it is more likely to test 50% Fibonacci Retracement, connecting its February- September rally, near 171.30 level before rallying to 172.10 and 172.60 levels. A sustained trading of the pair above 172.60 can give rise to expectations of 173.80 level re-test. On the downside, a close below 170.30 can cause the pair to test 61.8% Fibo. level, near 169.50, before plunging to 168.80 and 167.40 which includes 76.4% Fibo. level. Should the pair continue trading below 167.40, it is likely to extend its downturn towards 166 level.

AUDJPY

Last week, AUDJPY breached important support zone, 94.60 – 94.70, including 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its February- September 2014 up-move, which increased chances for the pair to test 92.80 level. On the extended downtrend below 92.80, the pair can plunge to 61.8% Fibo. level near 92.20 before testing 91.30 level. On the upside, a close above 50% Fibo. level, near 92.50, can give rise to expectations that the pair can re-test 94.60 – 94.70 resistance zone. Moreover, a sustained trading above 94.70 can cause the pair to test 95.30 levels prior to testing 100-day SMA near 95.80.

CADJPY

Having breached 95.30 – 95.25 support zone yesterday, coinciding 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – September 2014 upturn, the pair plunged below 94.15 support level today which includes 200-day SMA and 61.8% Fibo. level, by giving rise to expectations of a 93.70 ascending trend-lie support re-test. Should the pair closes below 93.70, it is expected to test 76.4% Fibo. level near 92.80; however, 93.20 can become intermediate support. On the break of 92.80, the pair can find multiple supports near 92.00 – 92.10 support zone. On the upside, the 95.25 – 95.30 region becomes critical for the pair, breaking which 95.50, 96.10 and 96.30 (comprising 38.2% Fibo. level) can become subsequent resistances for the pair. A break of 96.30 negates the chances of short-term downtrend by the pair and makes it vulnerable to rally towards 97.60 levels.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - Important NZD Pairs


On Wednesday, the New Zealand Dollar rallied against other major currencies (USD, EUR, GBP and AUD). The strength was primarily driven by broadly weakening US Dollar led by weak US economic data.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical overview of some important NZD pairs - NZDUSD, EURNZD, GBPNZD and AUDNZD.

NZDUSD

Following its sharp fall since July this year, the pair has been slowly and gradually trending higher, as is depicted by formation of a short-term ascending channel on 4-hourly chart. However, the formation of an ascending channel, following a sharp fall, constitutes towards formation of bearish continuation chart pattern, Flag. Hence, a decisive break below the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel, currently near 0.7820-0.7800 area, might seriously deteriorate the near-term prospects of any recovery for the pair. The pair then might be dragged back towards testing recent lows near 0.7710 mark and subsequently towards testing June-July 2013 lows support area near 0.7680 region. Meanwhile on the upside, 0.8000-0.8020 psychological mark resistance, also coinciding with the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel, might continue to cap immediate upside for the pair. However, a decisive strength above this strong resistance area seems to trigger a short-covering rally towards 0.8160-80 horizontal resistance area, with intermediate resistance near 0.8080-0.8100 area.

EURNZD

The pair seems to have stuck in a trading range, with 1.6220-40 area, marking 50% Fib. retracement level of Dec. 2013 to July 2014 downfall, acting as immediate strong resistance and 1.6020-1.6000 zone comprising of 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level providing immediate strong support on the downside. Considering that the pair has been decisively trading above 200-day SMA for the first-time since March 2014, it seems more likely to conquer the 1.6200 strong resistance area and move back towards 1.6400 resistance zone, marked by 61.8% Fib. retracement level. However, a decisive weakness back below 1.6000 psychological mark support, might negate the bullish outlook and the pair could easily drop back towards 1.5900 round figure mark support and subsequently might continue drifting lower towards 1.5800 mark, which now seems to act as a short-term bottom for the pair.

GBPNZD

The pair continues trading in a well established descending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart, possibly indicating continuation of the recent down-leg. From current levels the pair seems more likely to drop back towards 2.000 important round figure mark and continue drifting lower towards testing the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, currently near 1.9930-20 levels. Alternatively, a move above 2.0220 immediate horizontal resistance area seems to lift the pair towards a very important resistance near 2.0350-60 area, representing the upper trend-line resistance of the descending trend-channel. A decisive strength above this strong resistance could possibly negate the possibilities of any further downfall for the pair and the pair could move back towards 2.0600 resistance area. Meanwhile, a decisive break below the lower trend-line support seems to exert additional near-term pressure for the pair and the pair could easily drop towards 1.9600 area.

AUDNZD

The pair seems to have formed a bearish Double-Top chart pattern near 1.1270-80 area. However, the pattern would be completed only once the pair decisively breaks below an important support near 1.0900 mark. Hence, a decisive break below 1.0900-1.0880 support area would confirm continuation of the descending trend, initially towards 1.0680 and ultimately towards the target price of the bearish pattern formation, 1.0550-40 support area also marking lows tested in Jan. and March 2014. On the upside, 1.1030-40 horizontal area now seems to provide immediate resistance. This is followed by a strong resistance near 1.1100 round figure mark, coinciding with 50-day SMA, and is likely to cap any near-term up-move for the pair. However, a decisive move above this strong resistance area might trigger a sharp up-move back towards a very important resistance area near 1.1250-70 area.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - US Equity Indices

On Thursday, the US equity indices took a breather and recovered from its earlier fall of over 1% during the day, helped by the possibilities of the Fed extending its bond purchase program on comments from a Federal Reserve official James Bullard, the president of the St. Louis Fed. Also on Friday, the index futures rallied, indicating a sharp gains at the opening as investors await for a speech by the Fed Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical overview for major US equity indices - Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Dow Jones [DJI30]

Following a decisive break below an important support confluence near 16,600 area, comprising of 200-day SMA and an ascending trend-line, the index dropped below 16,000 mark. The index is now witnessing a pull-back from a slightly near-term oversold conditions. From current levels, the index could possibly witness continuation of the pull-back towards 16,350 horizontal support, which if conquered seems to extend the pull-back towards an important support break level near 16,600 region. This 16,600 area now seems more likely to cap any further near-term up-move for the index. Meanwhile on the downside, a drop back below 16,100 immediate support, leading to a subsequent weakness below 16,000 psychological mark, might trigger another leg of weakness for the index, possibly back towards 2014 lows of 15,350-30 area.

S&P 500 [SP500]

Although the index dropped to 1819 during the course of a trading day, it still managed to hold 1845-50 important support, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of June 2013 to Sept. 2014 bull-run and is now headed back towards 1900 psychological mark. An up-move beyond 1900 mark is likely to confront a major support turned resistance near 1910-15 area, comprising of 200-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. retracement level. On a decisive strength back above this important resistance, the index seems to be aiming back towards 2000 psychological mark with intermediate resistance pegged near 1950-70 region. On the downside, 1850-45 area remains an important support to look for. A sustain trade and close below this important support could immediately drag the index towards another important support near 1800-1790 zone, represented by 50% Fib. retracement level.

Nasdaq 100 [NQ100]

The index this week fell below the very important 200-day SMA support for the first time in 2014, but has managed to recover from an intermediate support at the golden Fib. retracement level 61.8% of April to Sept. 2014 up-swing and moved back above 200-day SMA. Immediate resistance on the upside is seen near 3825-30 area; however, 3850 regions, previous strong support also marking 38.2% Fib. retracement level, now seems to act as a major resistance for the index. Failure to conquer immediate resistance area and a weakness back below 50% Fib. retracement level support near 3750 region seems to confirm continuation of the weakening trend towards 3610-3600 intermediate horizontal support area and even towards testing another horizontal support near 3550-30 zone.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”