Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

US Equity Indices - Technical Update

On Thursday, major US equity indices (Dow Jones and S&P 500) registered their fourth straight session of gains on the back of better-than-expected economic data. Investors now await for Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's comments in Jackson Hole, later on Friday.

Meanwhile, here is a technical update on the major US benchmark indices - Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

Dow Jones [DJI30]

On Thursday, the index pushed through 17,000 mark, moving closer to all-time high touched in July. The all-time closing high level around 17,100 seems to provide immediate resistance, which if breached has the potential to further boost the index towards 17,400 mark, representing 61.8% Fib. expansion level. However, should the index starts reversing from current levels and decisively drop back below 17,000 mark, it is likely to find support at 16,850 level. A break below 16,850 horizontal support area seems to exert additional pressure towards testing a very important support near 16,700 mark. Furthermore, weakness back below 16,700 support area might confirm the up-coming near-term weakness for the index and the index then seems to drift lower to retest recent lows near 16,300 area, marked by an ascending trend-line support on daily chart. 200-day SMA region near 16,430 region seems to provide some intermediate support on the downside.

S&P 500 [SP500]

Although, the index managed to close at a record high level, it seems more likely to continue facing stiff resistance at 2,000 psychological mark, also coinciding with 61.8% Fib. expansion level. However, should the index manage to conquer this important psychological resistance, it is likely to witness a sharp up-move immediately towards 2,025 resistance area and subsequently move higher in the near-term towards 2,070-80 resistance area, marked by 100% Fib. expansion level. Alternatively, a drop back below 1,980 immediate support area, is likely to immediately drag the index towards its next horizontal support near 1,950-40 zone, which if decisively broken seems to force the index to retest 100-day SMA support, currently near 1,925 region, and subsequently to test 200-day SMA support, currently near 1,875 area.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Gold Technical Update

• On Thursday, Gold dropped for fifth consecutive day and closed below the very important support of 200-day SMA near $1283-85 zone, also representing 50% Fib. retracement level of Dec. 2013 to March 2014 up-swing. On Thursday, the yellow metal initially witnessed some rebound but is now finding it difficult to move back above 200-day SMA, support turned immediate resistance and is now headed for a second week of consecutive declines.

• As could be seen, the metal now seems to be forming a descending trend-channel on daily chart, with the lower trend-line support near $1260 area, also coinciding with 61.8% Fib. retracement level support. However, $1270 level, marking an ascending trend-line extending from 2013 lows through lows tested in June 2014, seems to provide intermediate strong support.

• A break below $1270 could immediately weaken the metal to test $1260 support area. Further, a decisive break below $1270 now seems to trigger extended near-term weakness for the yellow metal and the metal might continue drifting lower, even below $1260 support, towards $1240 horizontal support area.

• On the upside, $1285 region seems to continue acting as immediate resistance, which if conquered might again boost the metal back towards $1300-10 psychological resistance area, also marking 50-day SMA resistance.

• Considering that short-term moving average (50-day SMA) is holding above medium and long-term moving averages (100-day and 200-day SMA), there seems a fair possibility that the metal might hold $1270 support area and rebound back towards $1300 resistance area

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“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: Important CAD Pairs

With the absence of much awaited BoC move, Canadian Dollar continue to lose its weight against majority of its counterparts; adding to this, key inflation data, released on Friday, provided another challenge to the Canadian central bank to fuel the struggling economy. Canadian GDP m/m, scheduled to release this Friday, is the only fundamental detail about the Canadian economy that CAD traders can avail for analysis during the current week.

Having discussed the background, the following is a brief technical overview of USCAD, EURCAD, GBPCAD, CADJPY and CADCHF.

USDCAD

USDCAD has gained nearly 3% ever since the pair reversed from the ascending trend line support, stretched from September 2012. The pair currently testing the important resistance zone near 1.0990 – 1.1010, including 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its December 2013 to March 2014 up-move, which has been a reverse point for the up-move of the pair. Should the pair gains enough of courage to break the resistance zone, which is more likely considering the recent weakness of CAD and the overall strength of USD, the pair can rally towards 1.1110, 23.6% Fibo. level; however, 1.1050 can play as an intermediate resistance level. On the successful encounter of 1.1110, the pair becomes vulnerable to test 1.1200 level before breaking the yearly high of 1.1277. On the contrary, ascending trend line support near 1.0930 and the 50% Fibo. level, near 1.0915, immediately followed by the 200-day SMA support zone of 1.0880 – 1.0890, become critical support levels for the pair. Given the pair’s ability to break 1.0880 level, it can extend its downtrend towards 1.0810, which can act as a medium-term support for the pair.

EURCAD

Yesterday, EURCAD tested the monthly low, near the important support zone of 1.4420 – 1.4410, and the pair is currently trading upwards towards the re-test of 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level of July 2013 to March 2014 up-move, also coinciding psychological support level of 1.4500. Should the pair successfully break the 1.4410 support level, also closes below psychological level of 1.4400, which become more acceptable considering the MACD plunge below zero line, it can become vulnerable to test 1.4250 levels, coinciding 61.8% Fibo. level. Should the pair continue trading down below 1.4250, 1.4080 can become intermediate support before the pair declines to sub-1.4000 levels. On the upside, 1.4620, followed by the 200-day EMA near 1.4660, can cap the near-term up-move of the pair, before it rallies to 38.2% Fibo. level of 1.4750. A sustained trading above 1.4750 can fuel the pair towards a re-test 1.4900 level.

GBPCAD

The pair continued trading near its 200-day SMA since mid-August and the oversold MACD line signaling a reverse from the support level towards the immediate resistance zone of 1.8230 – 1.8240, breaking which 1.8310 can cap the near-term up-move of the pair before it rallies to 1.8450 levels. On the downside, multiple supports near 1.8160 (200-day SMA), 1.8140 and 1.8110 restricts the downside of the pair. A continuation of decline below 1.8110 can call for retest of 1.8030 – 1.8025 support zone, breaking which 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of its August 2013 to February 2014 up-move, near 1.7950 level, becomes important support for the pair.

CADJPY

Failure to break the 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its January-March downturn caused CADJPY to register negative closing on the first day of the week. From the current level, the confluence of 100-day and 200-day EMA near psychological support level of 94.00, immediately followed by the 38.2% Fibo. level near 93.80 level, becomes near-term concern for the pair traders. A break of 93.80 is closely followed by the 93.50 support level, breaking which 92.70 and 92.20 can limit the downfall of the pair. Alternatively, 50% Fibo. level near 94.90, closely followed by the psychological resistance level of 95.00 can provide immediate resistances for the pair, breaking which the pair can rally towards 95.50 and the 61.8% Fibo. level, also encompassing psychological level, of 96.00.

CADCHF

Later last week, CADCHF closed above its 200-day EMA for the first time since the start of the month; however, failure to sustain the breakout caused the pair to re-test the same technical level near 0.8325. The slow advance into the MACD line towards the positive region together with the small ascending trend line supporting the advance of the pair towards 0.8390 – 0.8400 resistance zone which is closely followed by the July high of 0.8427 level. A successful advance above 0.8430 can fuel the pair towards its medium-term resistance level of 0.8530; however, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its May 2013 to March 2014 downturn, near 0.8470 can become intermediate resistance for the pair. On the downside, the 200-day EMA and the ascending trend line support, near 0.8325 – 0.8310 region, can provide immediate rest to the pair, breaking which 100-day EMA near 0.8260 and the 23.6% Fibo. level near 0.8210 becomes the next concern for the pair traders. A sustained close below 0.8200 can cause the pair to test 0.8120 support level.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Major Currency Pairs - Technical Update

On Monday, the US Dollar gapped higher against EUR, GBP, JPY, and CHF and continued strengthening against NZD. The greenback also managed to register gain against its Australian counterpart, AUD. Meanwhile, investor will continue focusing on economic indicators, durable goods orders, consumer confidence scheduled for release from the US later on Tuesday, along with preliminary US GDP data on Thursday and the very important CPI data from the Euro-zone on Friday. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for important major currency pairs.

EURUSD

Following ECB President Mario Draghi's comments towards adding further stimulus to boost Euro-zone economic recovery at Jackson Hole on Friday last week, the pair on Monday, gapped lower and dropped below 1.3200 mark for the first time since Sept. 2013. In doing so the pair decisively broke below 61.8% Fib. retracement level of its strong up-move from July 2013 to May 2014. Although daily RSI is reading below 30, suggesting near-term oversold conditions, the pair seems unable to mark any meaningful recovery from such oversold conditions, possibly indicating continuation of the weakening trend. Overall medium-term trend seems to continue the bearish momentum and drag the pair towards 1.3000 psychological mark with 1.3100 round figure acting as intermediate support on the downside. However, considering the short-term oversold conditions, the pair seems more likely to either consolidate in a narrow range or possibly witness a short-term pull-back towards a strong support turned resistance break level near 1.3250-60 zone. Also owing to short-term oversold condition, immediate downside seems limited till 1.3170-60 horizontal support area.

GBPUSD

The pair continues trading in a well established short-term descending trend as is depicted by the formation of a descending trend-channel on 4-hourly chart. Following a drop below a very important support at 200-day SMA, the pair is now decisively trading below 23.6% Fib. retracement level of July 2013 to July 2014 up-swing. This 23.6% retracement level near 1.6620-40 region, also coinciding with the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel now seems to provide immediate resistance on the upside. From current levels, the pair seems more likely to continue with the descending trend and test the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, near 1.6500-1.6480 zone. However, considering the pair's sharp fall from nearly 1.7200 mark, a decisive move back above 1.6600 seems to provide some intermediate relief for the pair and the pair could bounce back towards re-testing an important support level break point of 200-day SMA, near 1.6680-1.6700 zone.

USDCHF

The pair on Monday jumped to 0.9178, marking fresh 2014 highs and nearly testing 100% Fib. expansion level resistance near 0.9185 level, also coinciding with the upper trend-line of a short-term ascending channel formation on daily chart. From current levels the pair seems to hold its immediate support near 0.9130 horizontal area and attempt to retest 100% Fib. expansion level resistance near 0.9185-0.9200 area. However, should the pair drop below 0.9130 support zone, it could possibly drop back to 0.9080-60 support area, coinciding with the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel and also representing 61.8% Fib. expansion level resistance break point.

USDJPY

Although, the pair managed to climb above 104.00 mark on Monday, rising above April 2014 high and testing the highest level since Jan. 2014, it failed to capitalize on the move and add to the early gains. This could have been possibly because of short-term overbought conditions as is suggested by daily RSI reading above 70. From current levels, should the pair fail to hold Friday's low of 103.50, also nearing 61.8% Fib. retracement level of Jan. to Feb. 2014 corrective move, it seems to drift lower towards 103.00 round figure mark support, representing 50% Fib. retracement level. Considering that the pair has broken on the upside from its recent trading range of 102.00-103.00, a dip towards 103.00 could possibly be seen as an opportunity by traders to initiate long positions. In the near-term the pair seems to be targeting towards 2013 highs, 105.40-50 resistance zone, representing a long-term descending trend-line resistance and is likely to act as a major resistance on the upside.

AUDUSD

The pair continues to remain struck within a trading range between 0.9240 and 0.9340, representing an ascending trend-line support and 100-day SMA immediate resistance. The pair currently is hovering around 23.6% Fib. retracement level of Jan. to July 2014 up-swing. A decisive move above 100-day SMA immediate strong resistance is likely to trigger a sharp up-move towards 0.9400-20 horizontal resistance and the up-move could possibly get extended, even beyond 0.9500 round figure mark resistance tested in July 2014, towards 0.9530-40 resistance zone. Alternatively, a drop below 0.9280 immediate horizontal resistance is likely to force the pair to retest the ascending trend-line support, which if decisively broken now seems to force the pair towards testing a very important support near 0.9180-70 zone, comprising of 38.2% Fib. retracement level and 200-day SMA.

NZDUSD

Continuing with its recent loosing momentum, the pair on Monday dropped below 61.8% Fib. retracement level of its appreciating move witnessed from Feb. to July 2014. On Tuesday, the pair initially extended its weakness but now seems to have found some support near 0.8300 round figure mark. A decisive break below 0.8300 now would possibly confirm continuation of the downward momentum towards testing 0.8100 support area. Meanwhile on the upside, 61.8% Fib. retracement level near 0.8350 level, seems to act as immediate resistance. This is closely followed by a very important support turned resistance near 0.8420-40 area, also nearing 50% Fib. retracement level is likely to cap any near-term up-move for the currency pair. However, a decisive move above this strong resistance would possibly negate the short-term bearish outlook for the pair and the pair could easily rise back to 0.8650 resistance area, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level, with 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 0.8540-50 zone, acting as intermediate resistance.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - Important EUR and GBP Pairs

On Tuesday, the US Dollar continued to strengthen against EUR and GBP but remained flat against JPY and weaker against the Australian counterpart (AUD) after the release of US consumer confidence index for August, which jumped to 92.4, its highest level since October 2007. Going forward investors will continue focusing on important US and Euro-zone economic releases, scheduled for release during the later half of the week.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for some important cross currency pairs - EURAUD, EURJPY, EURGBP, GBPAUD and GBPJPY

EURAUD

Continuing with its downward trajectory, as depicted by a short-term descending trend-channel formation on daily chart, the pair this week has repeatedly been hitting fresh 2014 lows. The pair now seems all set to drop further towards testing 1.4040-20 support area, representing the confluence area comprising of the lower trend-line of the descending channel and 50% Fib. retracement level of its up-move from 2013 lows to 2014 high. On the upside, 1.4200-20 horizontal area now seems to provide immediate resistance. Any strength above 1.4200 resistance area is likely to be capped at 1.4300 resistance zone, marked by the upper trend-line of the descending channel.

EURJPY

The pair continues to face a strong hurdle near 137.70-80 zone, comprising of 50-day SMA and the upper trend-line of a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart. The pair is currently holding a short-term ascending trend-line support near 137.00 round figure mark. Should the pair continue holding above this immediate support and manage to climb above 137.20 level, it seems more likely to continue the up-move towards retesting the very important resistance near 137.70. Further, a decisive move above this strong resistance is likely to trigger a sharp up-move towards 139.00 mark resistance zone, represented by 100-day SMA. Alternatively, a break below 137.00 round figure mark could further drag the pair back towards 2014 closing lows and subsequently towards the lower trend-line support of the descending channel near 135.00 psychological mark.

EURGBP

After failing to capitalize on to its strength above 0.8000 psychological mark, the pair dropped back to 0.7960-50 support area, comprising of 50-day SMA and a short-term ascending trend-line support. A sustained trade below 50-day SMA and subsequent weakness below 0.7950 level now seems to trigger fresh leg of downfall for the pair back towards 2014 daily closing lows support near 0.7890 region. On the upside, 0.8000 psychological mark remain a key level to be conquered decisively. Hence, a decisive back above 0.8000 mark now seems to trigger accelerated up-move towards 100-day SMA resistance near 0.8070-80 zone with 0.8030-40 area acting as intermediate resistance.

GBPAUD

On Wednesday, the pair weakened further to hit fresh 2014 low, led by a decisive break below a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart. The pair now seems to continue dropping towards 1.7700 round figure mark. Further, a decisive break below 1.7700 mark is likely to make the pair vulnerable to further near-term weakness initially towards 1.7600-1.7580 horizontal support area and ultimately towards testing sub-1.7400 support area, marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Apr. 2013 to Jan. 2014 up-swing. On the upside, 1.7850 horizontal area now seems to act as immediate resistance. However, important support break level near 1.7930-50 zone now seems to be acting as key resistance area for the pair. This 1.7950 resistance could possibly cap any near-term pull-back for the pair.

GBPJPY

The pair continues facing strong resistance in decisively conquering 23.6% Fib. retracement level resistance near 172.50 region, also coinciding with 100-day SMA. Hence, a decisive break above this strong resistance area is likely to lift the pair initially towards 173.30-50 horizontal resistance zone and further towards another horizontal resistance near 174.40-50 area. Alternatively, a reversal from this strong resistance zone and subsequent drop back below 172.00 immediate horizontal support seems to confirm retest of 200-day SMA strong support near 171.00 round figure mark, also coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Furthermore, a decisive weakness below 200-day SMA is likely to force the pair to break below a short-term ascending trend-line support near 170.50 and accelerate the downward momentum towards 169.50 support area.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: Important GBP Pairs

Having received green signal for monetary policy change during Spring 2015 by the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, the GBP strengthened across the board during last week; however, important data points, scheduled to release during the current week, makes this currency dearer to the Forex market players while looking for liquidity. The UK labor market numbers and the MPC voting on Asset Purchase Facility and Official Bank Rate, published during the day, remained mixed as two MPC members voted for a change of official bank rate while the Claimant Count remained near to the previous release by falling behind the forecast levels.

Given the backdrop, the following is a brief technical overview of important pairs connected to GBP.

GBPUSD

Failure to break the 1.6050 level coupled with the oversold RSI caused the pair to re-test 1.6300 level, encompassing a psychological level and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its July 2013 to July 2014 up-move. Should the pair sustains the breakout of 1.6300 level, which seems more acceptable considering the RSI reversal and the strength of the GBP, it becomes vulnerable to rally towards 1.6450 – 1.6455 resistance zone in a quick move. Moreover, an extended move surpassing the 1.6455 level can fuel the pair towards 200-day EMA, near psychological resistance level of 1.6600 which also plays a major role in determining medium-term outlook for the pair. Alternatively, a reversal from the current level can cause the pair to test immediate support zone of 1.6160 – 1.6150, breaking which it can decline further towards psychological support level and 50% Fibo. near 1.6000; however, 1.6050 can become intermediate support level. A sustained trading below 1.6000 can cause the pair to test sub-1.5800 levels in medium-term.

EURGBP

Descending trend channel on daily chart depicts the weakness of EURGBP which currently trades near 0.7950 level, near to its yearly low of 0.7874 level. The RSI is near to its normal range and is signaling a continuation of slow downtrend towards the year’s low. Should the pair breaks the yearly low, it is expected to extend its decline towards 0.7780 level, including the support line of the channel, which can become a reversal point for the pair. Alternatively, psychological level of 0.8000 quickly followed by the 0.8040 level can become immediate resistances for the pair, breaking which 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its February 2013 to July 2014, near 0.8090, and the 200-day EMA together with the resistance line of the channel near 0.8130 can cap the medium-term up-move of the pair.

GBPAUD

GBPAUD couldn’t break the 1.7200 support during early month and is trading near 1.7980 level with 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its October 2013 to January 2014 up-move and the 200-day EMA within the 1.7910 – 1.7900 range being immediate supports. Should the pair falls below the psychological support level of 1.7900, it can extend the fall towards the re-test of 1.7710 – 1.7700 support range, breaking which 61.8% Fibo. level near 1.7615 and the psychological support level of 1.7600 can limit the near-term downtrend of the pair before it declines to 1.7200 levels. On the upside, 1.8050 and the 38.2% Fibo. level near 1.8210 are likely to provide immediate resistances to the pair, breaking which it can extend the rally towards the 1.8350 – 1.8360 region. Moreover, a sustained trading above 1.8360 can cause the pair to rally towards 1.8590 – 1.8600 resistance zone, including 23.6% Fibo. level. Considering the strong support and current RSI level, it is more favorable to support the up-move of the pair towards the immediate resistances rather than expecting the decline.

GBPJPY

GBPJPY is currently trading near the psychological resistance level of 175 and is re-approaching towards the yearly high of 175.35, breaking which 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion of its February to July 2014 up-move near 176.25 can become immediate resistance for the pair before it rallies to 178.50 levels. Should the pair sustains the break of 178.50, it becomes vulnerable to rally towards the 100% Fibonacci Expansion level of 180.50. If the pair reverses from the current levels, as it is expected considering the RSI, 173.80 and 173.40 can become immediate support levels for the pair before it plunges to 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level and 50-day EMA of 172.70, which is likely to provide strong support for the near-term. A sustained break of 172.70 can cause the pair to test psychological support level of 171.00 which also coincides the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY

Ahead of the much awaited FOMC decision on Wednesday, the US Dollar edged lower against most major currencies on Tuesday. Investors will be looking for some firmer cues over the central bank's consideration to initiate interest rate hiking cycle from the announcement after a two-day FOMC policy meeting.

Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for some important major currency pairs - EURUSD, AUDUSD and USDJPY.

EURUSD

The pair has been witnessing a minor pull-back from near-term oversold condition witnessed last week when the pair dropped to its lowest level since July 2013. However, on 4-hourly chart, the pair now seems to be forming a flag pattern which marks consolidation in a narrow range before resumption of the previous trend. Hence, from current levels upside seems limited till 1.3000-1.3020 strong resistance zone, marking the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending channel formation (flag) and also coinciding with 50% Fib. retracement level of July 2012 to May 2014 strong rally. On the downside, 1.2920-1.2900 zone, representing the lower trend-line support of the short-term ascending channel, seems to provide some immediate support for the pair, which if breached is likely to trigger accelerated downfall immediately towards 1.2800-1.2790 important support area marked by 61.8% Fib. retracement level. However, a decisive move and close above 1.3000-20 resistance zone could possibly negate the short-term bearish outlook for the pair.

AUDUSD

After failing to hold 200-day SMA support, the pair dropped sharply to test 0.9000 psychological mark support also coinciding with 61.8% Fib. retracement level support of Jan. to July 2014 up-move. The current bounce back seems to have been triggered on the back of near-term oversold conditions as depicted by RSI, which had dropped below 30. The pair seems unlikely to extend the current bounce-back beyond 0.9110-20 important support turned major resistance and is likely to resume the downward trajectory initially towards 0.9000 important psychological further, which if broken is likely to be extended towards 0.8900 round figure mark horizontal support area. However, a decisive strength above 0.9110-20 immediate strong resistance area could possibly negate the bearish outlook and the pair might be able to strengthen further towards another strong resistance area near 0.9180 level, comprising of 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level.

USDJPY

Following its rise to a six-year high in the previous week, the pair on Tuesday dropped below 107.00 mark but managed to recover back to hold 107.00 mark on daily closing basis and on Wednesday is heading back towards the high of 107.39 touched on Friday last week. This 107.00 mark represents the break-out point above an ascending trend-line resistance extending from May 2013 highs through highs tested in Jan. 2014 and now seems to act as immediate support for the pair. Hence, a decisive break and close below this immediate support point seems to trigger a corrective move initially towards 106.50 horizontal support and could get extended towards another horizontal support area near 105.40-50 zone. However, considering the pair's decisive break-out above 105.00 strong resistance area has confirmed continuation of the pair's upward trajectory. Hence, any dip is likely to be utilized by traders to initiate fresh long positions for a possible continuation of the up-move towards 110.00 mark in the near-term.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Daily Wave Analysis for 18 September 2014

EURUSD

Price is falling down towards its targets such Fibonacci levels, a weekly bottom (green) and bottom of channel (purple).

4 hour EURUSD:

A breakout did indeed occur yesterday (see post 17 September) below the support (green) trend line (and around the 161.8% time Fibonacci level).

60 min EURUSD:

GBPUSD

The price action of all GBP pairs could be highly dependent on the Scottish independence referendum on Thursday.

4 hour GBPUSD:

The Fibonacci targets and retracements will most likely be the turning spots for the wave 4 (magenta).

60 min GBPUSD:

USDJPY

A breakout did indeed occur yesterday (see post 17 September) above the resistance (orange) trend line.

60 min USDJPY:

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: Important CAD Pairs

On Tuesday, Manufacturing Sales m/m provided across the board strength to the Canadian Dollar; however with no scheduled releases on Wednesday and Thursday, market players are liquidating some of the CAD gains ahead of the CPI and Wholesale sales details, scheduled to release on Friday. Moreover, after the FOMC meeting, took place on Wednesday, Scottish referendum voting, on Thursday, becomes the center of attention of the market.

Meanwhile, the following is the brief technical overview of the USDCAD, USDCHF, EURCAD and CADCHF.

USDCAD

Even after plunging heavily on Tuesday, the USDCAD couldn’t break the 1.0925 – 1.0920 support zone, coinciding ascending trend line support, 200-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2013 to March 2014 up-move. The pair is currently trading near 38.2% Fibo. level with 1.1050 being the immediate resistance, breaking which 1.1100 – 1.1110, encompassing 23.6% Fibo. level and a psychological level can become consecutive resistance for the pair. Should the pair sustains the break of 1.1110, the 1.1150 can restrict the rally of the pair before it tests March high near 1.1270. On the downside, the 1.0925 – 1.0920 becomes important support for the pair, breaking which 1.0830 can become immediate support for the pair before it tests the ascending trend line, stretched from September 2012, and the 76.4% Fibo. level near 1.0730. However, 1.0770 can become intermediate resistance level for the pair. Considering the ascending trend line and the MACD, the pair is more likely to trade upwards towards the break of 1.1110.

USDCHF

After today’s SNB meeting, the CHF weakened heavily against majority of its counterparts and the USDCHF tested the highest level since September 2013; however, considerably high level of the MACD and the higher pair prices can hurt the strength of the pair to break the horizontal resistance line signing 0.9455 – 0.9460 zone. Should the pair reverses from the current level, 0.9320 can become immediate support for the pair, breaking which 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its May 2013 to March 2014 downturn. On the successful break of 0.9320, the pair crash to 0.9200 support level before testing the important support level of 0.9130, encompassing the 50-day EMA and 38.2% Fibo. level. Alternatively, a break of 0.9460 can fuel the pair towards 0.9530 and the 0.9560 (76.4% Fibo. level) before rallying to 0.9650 level. Given the pair’s ability to sustain the 0.9650 breakout, it can become vulnerable to head towards 0.9750 levels.

EURCAD

EURCAD couldn’t even strengthen to 1.4400 and declined heavily since the start of the week. The pair is now trading near 1.4150 levels, with the 1.4080 being immediate support for the pair. Moreover, a break of 1.4080 is immediately followed by 1.4030 and 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of its July 2013 to March 2014 up-move near 1.3930 level. A sustained break of 1.3930 can cause the pair to test 1.3780 support levels. On the upside, 1.4250, including the 61.8% Fibo. level is likely to become immediate resistance for the pair, breaking which 1.4380 and the crucial resistance zone of 1.4410 – 1.4420 can cap the near-term up-move of the pair.

CADCHF

The pair continued observing the ascending trend line support and is heading towards the 0.8590 – 0.8600 horizontal resistance zone, breaking which 0.8670 – 0.8675 can become immediate resistance for the pair to test. On the sustained break of 0.8675, the pair becomes vulnerable to rally towards 0.8780 levels before testing 0.8880 which includes 61.8% Fibo. level. On the downside, 38.2% Fibo. level of 0.8460 quickly followed by the ascending trend line support level of 0.8430 can become consecutive supports for the pair. On the break ob 0.8430, the pair can test 0.8330 before plunging to crucial support level of 0.8200, as indicated by 200-day SMA and 23.6% Fibo. level.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Important EUR Cross Currency Pairs - Technical Overview

On Wednesday, the Euro-zone common currency dropped sharply against most other major currencies primarily led by its weakness against USD on the back of dollar-supportive FOMC statement and economic projections.

Meanwhile, here is a technical overview on some important EUR cross currency pairs - EURAUD, EURJPY, EURCAD, EURCHF and EURNZD.

EURAUD

After testing a 15-month low during early Sept., the pair has rebounded sharply to move closer to 100-day SMA resistance area near 1.4440 region also marking monthly high tested in Aug. 2014. Decisive strength above this resistance area seems to further boost the pair towards 1.4580 resistance area, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Jan. to Sept. 2014 downfall. However, a reversal from current levels and a subsequent drop below 1.4300 round figure mark, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level, the pair seems vulnerable to accelerate the downfall towards 1.4050 strong horizontal support area. Considering a strong resistance near 100-day SMA, traders are likely to wait for a clear strength above this resistance before initiating fresh long positions. Meanwhile, traders looking for initiating fresh short positions are also likely to wait for a clear reversal, which seems to be triggered should the pair fail to hold 1.4300 support area.

EURJPY

Following a decisive move above an important resistance area near 138.00 region, the pair completed the formation of a bullish chart-pattern, double-bottom, and has now touched the expected target price of the bullish chart pattern near 140.00, also nearing a very important moving average, 200-day SMA. This 140.00 region is likely to act as important resistance for the pair, which if conquered is likely to provide further lift to the pair towards 142.00 resistance area, marked by 61.8% Fib. retracement level of the pair's depreciating move from Dec. 2013 highs to lows touched in Aug. 2014. Meanwhile, profit taking after a sharp up-move could lead to a depreciating move towards 139.00 support area marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level, and a subsequent drop below this immediate support could further force the pair to test an important resistance break-point, now turned support near 138.00 round figure mark.

EURCAD

The pair seems to be trading in a well established downtrend as depicted by the formation of a descending trend-channel on daily chart. Moreover, the pair has been finding difficulty in decisively strengthening above 50-day SMA. The combination indicated continuation of the depreciating move for the currency pair, even below its recent low of 1.2044, towards testing sub-1.2000 level, marked by the lower trend-line support of the descending channel. On the upside, 50-day SMA region, currently near 1.2120 might continue to provide immediate resistance for the pair. Even if the pair manages to clear this immediate resistance, further upside seems to be capped at 1.2180 strong resistance area, comprising of the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel and 200-day SMA.

EURCHF

Even the pair's sharp recovery from nearly 9-month low of 1.4034, tested earlier this month, failed to lift the pair above a strong resistance near 1.4400 region, marked by the upper trend-line resistance of a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart and 50-day SMA region. The pair now is heading close to its immediate horizontal support near 1.4120 level, which if broken has the potential to further drag the pair, even below 1.4000 psychological support, towards 1.3920-1.3900 support area, marked by the lower trend-line support of the descending channel. However, a move back above 1.4200 round figure mark could provide relief rally for the pair back towards the strong resistance area near 1.4380-1.4400 zone. Only a decisive move above this strong resistance area, could possibly negate continuation of bearish move for the currency pair.

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EURNZD

On daily chart, the pair seems to have decisively cleared a strong resistance near 1.5770 area, moving above a descending channel formation. This break-out point, comprising of the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel and 100-day SMA now seems to act as immediate strong support for the pair and hence any dip towards this strong resistance turned support area now seems to be utilized by traders to initiate fresh long positions. The pair, in the near-term, seems all set to continue appreciating towards 200-day SMA resistance, currently near 1.6050 area. However, a break back below 1.5770-50 support area, would possibly categorize the current break-out as fake-out and might trigger an accelerated downfall back towards 1.5550 horizontal support area.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”