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On the TV say that the dollar will soon fall. What will tell?
On the TV say that the dollar will soon fall. What will tell?
THE US dollar
- Thread starter clem699
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Well it depends on what you really mean but generally,most of these major currencies have actually not done too well but the dollar seems to have an advantage.Yes the dollar is falling but it has a way of gaining back whatever it looses within a short period of time.Since the last one month,it as lost over five hundred points against the euro which ironically is believed to be the sick baby of them all.
To be honest,it is confusing to me although i do not rely majorly on fundamentals to decide my trade but i give it some levels of consideration and unfortunately,it has walked against me as i consistently sit on defense while i anxiously wait for the euro to resume its logical downward movement but that seems not to be as it keeps breaking major resistence levels.All the same i see the euro retracing soon and when that happens,it is going to be massive.I am looking up to 1.2750/1.2800 for that to occur.
One of the key factors of successful trading is patience.Today's trade,EUR/USD is quite unfortunate for some of us who base our trades majorly on technicals.The euro have continued to climb up like a drunk monkey despite the fact that some of us expect it to retrace between 1.2780-1.2860 but the reverse is the case.The Spanish bond auction was said to be responsible.Anyway,we are still in the market hoping that it will fall soon against the almighty dollar.
I hope i am not alone.
I hope i am not alone.
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Patience and good understanding of the strength of the pairs is very essential.As expected, the Euro seems to be getting back to the direction it should go,although further correction may still occur but the currency is destined for the bottom.
There are a lot of gurus now calling for the Euro to hit 1.36 at years end so I also feel like you but look at a 4HR chart and it has been a steady upward movement from 1.19....1100 pips at this point on that time range...
will it backfill all the way?
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I think the pair had been deceptive in the past 3 weeks now.Ordinarily,1.3100-20 should have been reached and then,a good retracement should have occur targetting 1.2750-65 at first instance and then,1.2500 initial support level hopefully before the end of August.But,see what is happening now. To be honest,i am highly disappointed with the dollar although i am yet to give up.I believe we are at a critical retracement level.
SO WOULD I,but the truth is that the greenback has lost quite alot of points in the last few weeks in a straight and just one single direction.As a technical trader,i think it is almost time and if not overdue for a retracement to occur.I still have my EUR/USD shorts on since three weeks although hedged.I look at 1.3350-3400 area as the next level but it seems to be having some sorth of mild resistence at 1.3250 which is not convincing but if 1.3100 is taken out,we might begin to have hope of full retracement if finally 1.3000 psycho level is taken off.Then,1.3250 would possibly complete the upward movement and shift sentiment back to the downside targetting 1.2800 area at first instance before the end of August.
Pharaoh,what do you think?
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Just a few months ago,analysts predicted doom for the euro.To be honest,i was one of those who thought the currency had reached its waterloo but since then,the currency has made over 10% gains against the greenback having invalidated certain resistence level.Now,i tend to agree that the gains of the currency is basically fundamental.
Considering the accelerated gains of the euro,the issue is that does it mean that the crisis in the euro zone is over?i do not think so and i feel strongly that what we are currently experiencing in the euro is consolidation assisted by the economic problems in America.Then,can we conclude that the euro zone crisis was over-exaggerated or what?perhaps.Now,attention has temporarily shifted to the dollar which i think is at another resistence zone and profit taking by euro bulls should be of assistance and a further wait and see approach attitude of the fed tomorrow concerning quantitative easing,which is likely,should help the dollar to start a recovery.
Considering the accelerated gains of the euro,the issue is that does it mean that the crisis in the euro zone is over?i do not think so and i feel strongly that what we are currently experiencing in the euro is consolidation assisted by the economic problems in America.Then,can we conclude that the euro zone crisis was over-exaggerated or what?perhaps.Now,attention has temporarily shifted to the dollar which i think is at another resistence zone and profit taking by euro bulls should be of assistance and a further wait and see approach attitude of the fed tomorrow concerning quantitative easing,which is likely,should help the dollar to start a recovery.
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