2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

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NZD/USD Testing Key Support at 0.609​

Solid ECN – The NZD/USD is testing immediate support at 0.609 today, aligning with the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The RSI hovers around the middle line, and the Awesome Oscillator approaches the zero line with red bars, indicating a lack of momentum for the currency pair.

From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD could dip to the 50 EMA, followed by the ascending trendline if bears maintain their position below the immediate resistance at 0.611.

Conversely, if bulls push above 0.611, the bullish trend will likely resume, with the immediate target being the 0.613 mark.​

 

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USD/JPY Eyes Key Resistance Levels!​

Solid ECN – The USD/JPY pair trades within a bullish channel and above the EMA 50 and Ichimoku cloud. The pair trades around 156.4 when writing, facing immediate resistance at 156.56.

The primary trend is bullish. If the bulls break out from the immediate resistance at 156.56, the uptrend that began at 153.6 could target 157.9, which aligns with the flag's upper line.

Conversely, 155.26 is the immediate support. If the USD/JPY price dips below this support, the downtrend could likely extend to the ascending trendline.​

 

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Unexpected Rise in US Crude Inventories Amid Rate Concerns​

Solid ECN – On Wednesday, TWTI crude futures dropped to about $78 per barrel, marking a downward trend for the third consecutive day. The slide is primarily due to concerns about when the US Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates.

This week, Fed officials advocated for prudence and a solid indication that inflation would stabilize at 2% before any rate cuts occur. Contrary to expectations of a decrease, US crude stockpiles rose by 2.48 million barrels last week. Additionally, tension in the Middle East, which typically increases oil prices, has eased without impacting oil supplies.

The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on June 1 is now in focus. Key oil producers are expected to continue limiting production to avoid a surplus and support higher prices.​

 

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Gold Stable Amid Tensions and Fed Talks​

Solid ECN—Gold prices are steady at around $2,410 per ounce this Wednesday. The price calmed a bit after reaching new peaks. As investors ponder comments from Federal Reserve officials, caution remains a theme.

Many Fed leaders suggest waiting a few more months to be sure inflation targets are being met before cutting interest rates. Later today, details from the Fed's recent meeting will be shared, and additional insights are expected from Fed speeches.

Meanwhile, tensions between the U.S. and China, alongside worries about increased conflicts in the Middle East following the death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, are preventing a significant drop in gold prices. Also, efforts in China to address troubles in its real estate sector are helping to support gold prices.​

 

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Silver Prices Hold Steady Amid Fed Policy Evaluations​

Solid ECN – Silver prices have settled at around $31.7 per ounce, maintaining the peak levels not seen since December 2012. This stability comes as investors reevaluate the U.S. Federal Reserve's future actions based on recent statements from the officials.

Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr highlighted the need for patience in assessing the impact of current policies. At the same time, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic projected only a single interest rate reduction this year. Although higher interest rates generally reduce the attractiveness of non-yield-bearing assets like silver, its demand continues due to widespread industrial use.

Furthermore, silver supply shortages persist, entering the fourth year of deficits. Stock levels at the London Bullion Market Association have dropped to near-record lows in April, with similar trends observed in New York and Shanghai's exchanges.​

 

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Bitcoin Stability Above $62,918 Signals Bullish Trend​

Solid ECN – Bitcoin's price has stabilized above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $62,918, aligning with the middle line of the Bollinger Band indicator. The Awesome Oscillator shows red bars, indicating bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI has moved down from the overbought territory, staying above 50, which suggests continued strength.

From a technical standpoint, the primary trend remains bullish. Immediate resistance is found at $70,346. If Bitcoin breaks through the current support, the upward trend could resume, possibly reaching a new target of $73,720.

Conversely, a drop below the immediate support of $69,218 might extend today's consolidation phase toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $64,466.​

 

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Ethereum Price Correction After Bullish Breakout

Solid ECN – Ethereum experienced a significant price surge after breaking out from $3,141. The robust bullish momentum eased when the ETH/USD price reached the 78.6% target of $3,813. This surge pushed the RSI into oversold territory, and it currently hovers around the 70 line, indicating a potential correction.

From a technical perspective, entering long positions in an overbought market is not advisable. Traders should wait for the crypto pair to consolidate, which may lead to a dip to the 61.8% Fibonacci support at $3,598, followed by secondary support at $3,446.​

 

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EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Signals and Key Fibonacci Levels​

Solid ECN – The EUR/USD currency pair broke below the ascending trendline and is trading a bearish flag in today's session at approximately $1.0827. The technical indicators are bearish, with the RSI hovering below the 50 line and the Awesome Oscillator bars red and below the signal line.

The 23.6% Fibonacci level is the immediate resistance. If the price stays below this level, the downtrend could extend to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $1.082.

Conversely, the primary uptrend will resume if the bulls close and stabilize the price above the immediate support at $1.083. In this case, the first target would be retesting the $1.089 ceiling.​

 

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AUD/USD Downtrend and Potential Reversal Signals​

Solid ECN–The AUD/USD price dipped below the ascending trendline and the EMA 50. As of this posting, the pair is in a downtrend, trading at about $0.662. The technical indicators are bearish, with the RSI value at 38 and the Awesome Oscillator value at -0.004. However, the AUD/USD formed a hammer candlestick pattern, clinging to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which could indicate a potential trend reversal.

From a technical standpoint, it is recommended that the pair break either the immediate support at $0.660 or the resistance at $0.664 before joining the market. If the price drops below $0.660, the downtrend will likely target the 50% Fibonacci level, followed by the $0.657 mark.

Conversely, the primary bullish trend should resume if the bulls close and stabilize the price above the immediate resistance at $0.664.​

 

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USD/CAD Faces Crucial 50% Fibonacci Test​

Solid ECN – The USD/CAD trend reversed after the price neared the descending trendline, and as of writing, the pair is testing the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.362. The technical indicators signal a continuation. The Awesome Oscillator bar turned red in the current trading session, and the RSI value has dropped to 55 from 65.

From a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bearish. However, for the downtrend to resume, the price must close and stabilize below 1.366. If this scenario continues, the next target will likely be the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.361.

Conversely, if the bulls maintain their position above the immediate support at 1.366, the trend can reverse in the short term and target the 1.370 mark.​