Ambiguity on WTI rollover of CFD by Broker House (Help Needed!!)

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13
Dear friends,

I request for your kind assistance as I am currently in dispute with a broker house.
I'm choosing not to name the broker house (BH) first in order to clear any potential mistakes on my end.

Here is the chain of events so far (at the best of my ability to explain):

1) On 16/02/2016, The BH was quoting the benchmark CL1 (in this case the March, 2016) WTI futures contract at a price similar to Bloomberg, Reuters, news reports, other broker houses, and any generally widely available pricing source quoting that contract.

2) On 17/02/2016, The BH performed a rollover to the April 2016 WTI futures contract causing a huge spike in price as shown in the chart (please refer to left side of the chart below):

Anomaly 1.png
3) On 18/02/2016, The BH seemed to have reversed this position briefly as shown in the chart to reflect the March, 2016 contract price once again. In one of my many correspondences, I was notified by the BH that this was due to a system error. The explanation was given as follows: "The 'anomaly' you have referred to in your chat is due to a technical error which streamed few quotes from the old contract after the rollover to the new contract already had taken place." Further enclosed are pictures of how the chart looks like on a mobile device.

upload_2016-2-25_4-10-4.png upload_2016-2-25_4-10-56.png

4) Following the brief revision downwards, the BH then reversed the position upwards once again to reflect the April, 2016 WTI Futures contract as shown above resulting in almost a +-200 points gap. The chart was then modified by the BH on the MT4 platform later on the 18/02/2016 and smoothed out as shown below:

Avn7w5bZlSWl22aIH6MbPANSoKfXTYsgGNlO3TZeG-NH.jpg

5) Therefore since 18/02/2016 up until 22/02/2016, the price quoted by the BH differed greatly from benchmark providers, for example from Bloomberg and Dukascopy. Differences in price is as shown below:

AmXUBJAjfqbpJChJpM8fgE1pTcnVLT5RYzn6ARc3KudS.jpg Ajpp_nkRmWVx1FpM9BirvuYwZgVjo-fCcNesrZnoGqoE.jpg

6) Upon further dispute, I was given the following information which I would like to highlight:

i) With XXX, the old contract is being rolled over to the new one, at the time when the old contract is stopped from trading on the exchanges.
ii) Rollover happens automatically, and if I have an open position, it is said to automatically be rolled over to the new one.
iii) Under their order policy, no rollover dates are provided as this is said to be determined by their liquidity providers.
iii) Time and time again instead of obtaining a proper reason, I was told that "xxx does not however guarantee that execution at our price will be more favorable than one which might have been available elsewhere."
iii) I was pointed out to this link to analyse the indicative pricing. I noticed that the March 2016 contract is only set to expire on 22/02/2016 and was still trading at the time. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html
iv) I was also told "Trading in the current delivery month shall cease on the third business day prior to the twenty-fifth calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month"
v) Just for laughs, when I was told I would bring this issue here: "Also please note that we do not negotiate in cases of blackmail. We consider this case closed". What an easy way for them to brush off this issue. I must say I am quite offended by this.

Finally with all which has been said, this brings me to my closing argument and my questions:

They have performed rollover of their March, 2016 contract to the April, 2016 contract on February 17, 2016 and immediately pricing the security based on the April, 2016 contract. By doing this, they have deliberately created a mismatch between the existing *still traded in the market *March, 2016 contract and the new *April, 2016 *contract.

As previously mentioned and shown, the market *is still largely trading the March 2016*, contract. The still
heavily traded *March 2016* contract is closest to the cash price of the underlying futures, for this case WTI and the price quoted was still reflected in other broker houses, news, Blooberg, Reuters, etc as evident above.

1) Can they legally do this (early rollover?). Isn't the March, 2016 price supposed to reflected until 22/02/2016?
2) Why does the market price (other brokers and benchmarks) differ largely from their quoted price between 17/02/2016 - 22/02/2016 when the rollover dates are about the same or differ by one or two days?
3) Do the liquidity providers ultimately determine their rollover dates?
4) Is there anything else I am missing out in regards to the issue?
5) What is the bigger picture of the 'technical error's link to this issue?

All the help in the world would be much appreciated. I really need to understand this better. Thanks all and god bless! Happy trading =))
 
Egad. Way outside my field of experience.

Perhaps check with a few other brokers that offer the same instruments. A few hypothetical "If I do this, what happens?" questions might provide information on whether your broker is doing something unusual or not.
 
Egad. Way outside my field of experience.

Perhaps check with a few other brokers that offer the same instruments. A few hypothetical "If I do this, what happens?" questions might provide information on whether your broker is doing something unusual or not.

Dear Pharaoh,

Thank you very much for your kind suggestions and your prompt response.
I am moving about all over on the internet to obtain more answers. Once I compile my findings, I'll be sure to share it here for the benefit of everyone.

Thanks once again! Really appreciate this.
Just want to further note that I'm not the only one you're helping out. In fact, I suffered minimal losses on this move. There are others who have suffered far greater losses due to engaging in a bigger lot size; it is for them I want to speak up for.

Trading has always been my passion, back when I worked in the treasury department in a Bank until the startup of the small firm I own now. I believe passive income is the way to go but more importantly, I believe transparency and integrity is every client's right and being in the Bank for so long where I mostly found myself doing more squeezing than helping; I am passionate to make a positive difference this time around.

Thank you very much for your kind help guys! Anything you have to say at all will be very much appreciated. Be it negative or positive. Thanks a bunch everyone!

Regards,
 
Just to share a little to anyone who wishes to understand issues in regards to 'futures rollover' further:

i) Differences between pricing of Brent and WTI futures contracts
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=24692

ii) Pricing and adjustment rules on rollover
https://www.quandl.com/collections/futures/cme-wti-crude-oil-futures

iii) Programming rules in relevance to 'backwardation' and 'contango'
https://www.quantstart.com/articles/Continuous-Futures-Contracts-for-Backtesting-Purposes

I understand these issues well and will be happy to share further!

However, they share little insight on the practice of how 'a broker house conducts their rollovers' nor do they enlighten on any questions I have in regards to 'standard market convention' as shared above.

Regards,
 
You can also try the "Hi, I'm a potential customer who wants to deposit $25k". Do it from a different phone number. Then ask a few of the same "hypothetical" questions to your own broker and see what they say.

If it's legal to do so in your jurisdiction, record the phone call.
 
You can also try the "Hi, I'm a potential customer who wants to deposit $25k". Do it from a different phone number. Then ask a few of the same "hypothetical" questions to your own broker and see what they say.

If it's legal to do so in your jurisdiction, record the phone call.

Thank you very much for this awesome suggestion! Haven't thought of doing this!
Shall try this out! Thanks :D
 
Dear friends,

I request for your kind assistance as I am currently in dispute with a broker house.
I'm choosing not to name the broker house (BH) first in order to clear any potential mistakes on my end.

Here is the chain of events so far (at the best of my ability to explain):

1) On 16/02/2016, The BH was quoting the benchmark CL1 (in this case the March, 2016) WTI futures contract at a price similar to Bloomberg, Reuters, news reports, other broker houses, and any generally widely available pricing source quoting that contract.

2) On 17/02/2016, The BH performed a rollover to the April 2016 WTI futures contract causing a huge spike in price as shown in the chart (please refer to left side of the chart below):

View attachment 23884
3) On 18/02/2016, The BH seemed to have reversed this position briefly as shown in the chart to reflect the March, 2016 contract price once again. In one of my many correspondences, I was notified by the BH that this was due to a system error. The explanation was given as follows: "The 'anomaly' you have referred to in your chat is due to a technical error which streamed few quotes from the old contract after the rollover to the new contract already had taken place." Further enclosed are pictures of how the chart looks like on a mobile device.

View attachment 23885 View attachment 23886

4) Following the brief revision downwards, the BH then reversed the position upwards once again to reflect the April, 2016 WTI Futures contract as shown above resulting in almost a +-200 points gap. The chart was then modified by the BH on the MT4 platform later on the 18/02/2016 and smoothed out as shown below:

View attachment 23887

5) Therefore since 18/02/2016 up until 22/02/2016, the price quoted by the BH differed greatly from benchmark providers, for example from Bloomberg and Dukascopy. Differences in price is as shown below:

View attachment 23888 View attachment 23890

6) Upon further dispute, I was given the following information which I would like to highlight:

i) With XXX, the old contract is being rolled over to the new one, at the time when the old contract is stopped from trading on the exchanges.
ii) Rollover happens automatically, and if I have an open position, it is said to automatically be rolled over to the new one.
iii) Under their order policy, no rollover dates are provided as this is said to be determined by their liquidity providers.
iii) Time and time again instead of obtaining a proper reason, I was told that "xxx does not however guarantee that execution at our price will be more favorable than one which might have been available elsewhere."
iii) I was pointed out to this link to analyse the indicative pricing. I noticed that the March 2016 contract is only set to expire on 22/02/2016 and was still trading at the time. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html
iv) I was also told "Trading in the current delivery month shall cease on the third business day prior to the twenty-fifth calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month"
v) Just for laughs, when I was told I would bring this issue here: "Also please note that we do not negotiate in cases of blackmail. We consider this case closed". What an easy way for them to brush off this issue. I must say I am quite offended by this.

Finally with all which has been said, this brings me to my closing argument and my questions:

They have performed rollover of their March, 2016 contract to the April, 2016 contract on February 17, 2016 and immediately pricing the security based on the April, 2016 contract. By doing this, they have deliberately created a mismatch between the existing *still traded in the market *March, 2016 contract and the new *April, 2016 *contract.

As previously mentioned and shown, the market *is still largely trading the March 2016*, contract. The still
heavily traded *March 2016* contract is closest to the cash price of the underlying futures, for this case WTI and the price quoted was still reflected in other broker houses, news, Blooberg, Reuters, etc as evident above.

1) Can they legally do this (early rollover?). Isn't the March, 2016 price supposed to reflected until 22/02/2016?
2) Why does the market price (other brokers and benchmarks) differ largely from their quoted price between 17/02/2016 - 22/02/2016 when the rollover dates are about the same or differ by one or two days?
3) Do the liquidity providers ultimately determine their rollover dates?
4) Is there anything else I am missing out in regards to the issue?
5) What is the bigger picture of the 'technical error's link to this issue?

All the help in the world would be much appreciated. I really need to understand this better. Thanks all and god bless! Happy trading =))

Hi,
I am a technical analyst, but as far as my knowledge is concerned with this "rollover" or "weekend gaps" thing, they happen all the time sometimes it is very small but sometimes due to any fundamental disaster/change which caused huge spikes as you showed above, but it is duty of the broker house to rollover and compensate the losses of their customers anyhow . One thing is for sure, when you choose a broker house and invest you money, they should be real concerned with their customer satisfaction. In the above case scenario, i assume that your proffered broker house is not even serious regarding customer's issues (like they tried to clear their position with "Also please note that we do not negotiate in cases of blackmail. We consider this case closed" ) i consider this quote very surprising. Sorry to say but there is nothing i or anyone can do for you in this case, as the broker house would have this point in their terms of contract/services "trading future contracts may not be suitable for everyone so choose to trade with only money you can bear to loose". for some this point is a general thinking that trading contains high levels of risk etc, but when you go behind the closet you find yourself at this point where you are right now. I don't mean to discourage you but i don't think that you can do anything against that BH. :(
 
Dear Flexianalysis,

Thank you very much for your kind feedback! I really appreciate :D
Nice to meet someone coming from a similar background! I worked as a dealer in the bank as well as a ratings analyst in a rating agency prior to managing the small firm I have now.

Firstly, just to share, I understand completely the mechanics of 'rollover' and 'weekend gap'....I understand that gaps tend to exist and If I may point you to the different methods a rollover can be conducted; then here are some popular pricing methods in regards to programming as outlined below:
i) Back/Forward ("Panama") Adjustment
ii) Proportional Adjustment
iii) Rollover/Perpetual Series
For further info in regards to these methods and other info in regards to pricing, kindly refer to the links I have provided above.

Next to highlight is this definitely is not a weekend gap as it has occurred on a good business day (17/02/2016), Wednesday. Therefore this is not the case as well; but due to this, I have some very interesting findings to share with you my friend. Let me start off by saying this: "There is a huge repricing gap in the rollover dates between broker houses as their rollover dates tend to differ from one another".

My analytical view is, this is caused by outweighing supply factors on physical oil (lack of take-up on physical delivery / falling demand) which is heavily outweighed by a speculative market. Kindly refer to this website which helps determine indicative rollover prices (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html). Notice the gap and trade volume between the April, 2016 and May, 2016 contract. Let's assume that a huge pricing gap still exist 7 days prior to designated rollover. Then probably situations, under a normal delivery market (one which has less speculation, and is not in a period of oversupply) would be for the May, 2016 contracts and later to fall in tandem or closer reflect the April price. However, since speculation is far greater in the April contract (as of 26/02/2016, 4.2x more heavily traded than May, 2016), and oversupply is causing other future contract prices to move far less in tandem (I need some historical evidence to change this piece of 'assumption' to 'fact', anyone care to help me out with this?) then:

Trade idea:
In consideration of a huge gap which still exist prior to the last trading day in a market whereby prices are set to contango, then: Long Crude Oil until next rollover. Need your expertise with this Flexianalysis, can this work?

Thanks for your pointers flexianalysis. This discussion has opened pathways for multiple analysis. Take for instance, factoring the news whereby how the "change between contract expiration dates for Brent and WTI to affect futures comparison" for these two instruments for example, to access whether this adds on to the ýet to be adjusted' differentials further. I feel like Linux intstead of Microsoft lol! But oh well, if it is for the good of everyone, I'm happy to share :)

In line with their policy I do not think they will compensate me in any way; and to be honest, it's only a USD$69.40 loss in total. On a personal note, It didn't bother me much but my worries are for my clients which I have introduced this broker to who might be caught on the opposite end of the coin :( .I maintain a very strict approach to trading with a strong belief whereby TP has to ALWAYS be bigger than SL in order for one to be a profitable trader, in addition to important policy based fundamentals such as interest rates differentials. Totally spot on with what Jarratt Davis says; hence why I was a little bothered by this becayse SL point heavily outweighed TP, and this wasn't by choice sadly! Hahaha...

Thanks for your kind share and advice buddy!
Appreciate it very much :) :) :)

Regards,


 
Dear Pharaoh and Flexianalysis,

Therefore as it is now, the unresolved questions I still have on my plate are:

1) Is there really no standardized rollover dates between broker houses?
2) What are the governing laws for WTI/Brent Futures contract rollovers between countries?
3) Can the broker house chose to not disclose their rollover dates to the public? (Red signal for deliberate trigger of stop losses; even clearer when price came down again in regards to my illustrated example)
4) What is the bigger picture of the 'technical error's link to this issue?
5) Is there anything else I am missing out in regards to this issue?

I am awaiting response from some authorities for answers 1-3. Will keep you guys posted further when I obtain them. For answers 4-5, I am still in the dark.

Cheers guys!

Regards,
 
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