Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

Messages
198
View attachment 54346
View attachment 54347
Hi all. Kind a long time no see from me but this time you`ve got to excuse me again. I`m not in a mood for some big charting so i`ll be short and share with you the actual weekly chart from the last time plus some new Stock to flow model.

Actual situation (chart 1).
  • Support and resistance:
  • Support:
  • 1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
  • 2nd support - $7800
  • Resistance:
  • 1st resistance - $9500-9800
  • 2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.
  • Weekly pivot point is $9278.15.
  • 50 SMA is below the price for now.
  • 21 EMA is below the price for now.
  • We`re very close to a bullish cross between 21EMA and 50SMA but let`s wait for confirmation.
  • Whole this week candle is above the symmetrical triangle. Very positive sign.
As a conclusion i`m expecting a positive next week.

New Stock to flow model. (chart 2).

With the actual money printing and very possible inflation and even hyperinflation the future BTC price can reach $100k, $1mil. and more. But what will be the purchase power of this $100k or $1mil.? I think that`s the big question. Unlike the FIAT, Gold is gold. No matter now, before 100 of years or after 100 of years. That`s why the latest BTC vs Gold Stock to flow model is getting more important. Just check the chart.

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
very detailed, thanks for sharing you know your stuff very well :) i too anticipate a positive week ahead for this one! :)
 

sivemorten

NOT Sive Morton
Messages
2
Very nice and helpful analysis
Hi all. I`m opening this thread to follow BTC movement closer, share my ideas and discus the whole situation with it. Here`s my latest view.

Nothing major has changed lately. Consolidation time. Let`s see the chart by chart explanation below.
1st chart :
View attachment 44874
First, the price level of around $7700 is still playing as a strong support. If we go over $9100 I can say we`re safe and definitely can look for further hights, and the opposite - if we go below $7700 we`re not good. Second, if we check Simple Moving Averages (100 and 200 days) and their connectivity, things are looking not so bad. The bad points about 200SMA is that the price tried to pass above it last two days but unfortunately it failed for now. The 100SMA is still above 200 SMA but seems like it`s trying to go under. Stochastic right now is not so good too - going into overbought zone.
As a conclusion in short-term i`ve got to say it`s something like 70:30 for bearish scenario. For mid and long-term i`m more than bullish. I have a strategy which in short is to open a Long positions with every $1000 price drop (of course with mind of the leverage and the first position size). And because of the all mentioned above I`m also opening some small Short position just to catch this short-term bear market with SL $9200.
2nd chart:
View attachment 44876
As I said last time i`m still HODL-ing my BTC and even compounding it. From the second chart it`s seems it`s not only me. Based on Coinmetrics one cohort of traders are owners with a cost basis above $13,000. Prior to the market sell-off, roughly 720,000 Bitcoin belonged to this cohort. Analysis of on-chain activity indicates that virtually all Bitcoin owned by this cohort remained dormant during the sell-off, suggesting that capitulation among these traders is complete. Only 4,140 of the 720,000 Bitcoin moved over the past nine days and did not contribute meaningfully to selling pressure. These traders have apparently become numb to a 20 percent drop in prices and are now firmly long-term holders.
3rd chart:
View attachment 44877
Just a comparison between the situation back in 2014-2016 and now. The only difference is that the things now are moving faster.
BTC is dying? I don`t think so!
Very nice and helpful analysis
 

momo3HC

Master Sergeant
Messages
429
BTC 20062020.jpg

Hi all. A lot of things happened lately and here I am again. This time only BTC chart (a weekly one) and no other distraction.
You can ask why and the answer is very simple – I want to be strictly price action orientated this time.
We saw a lot of movement in both directions but as you`ll see from the chart – nothing major changed.
Actual situation.
  1. The price is trying to breach the upside line but can`t do it. Only a small fake out for now. The game is not over yet.
  2. 10 EMA – the price perfectly bounced from it this week and it`s back above.
  3. 21 EMA - the price is still above it.
  4. Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
  5. Parabolic SAR – 8 weeks bullish signaling.
  6. Weekly pivot point is $9413.80 – 50:50 possibility to close the week below it which can lead to negative next week.
  7. Support and resistance:
    7.1. Support:
    1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
    2nd support - $7800
    7.2. Resistance:
    1st resistance - $9500-9800
    2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.
So as a conclusion theres plan A and B. Im 70:30 for plan A but who knows.
There`s no matter for me in long term. Both scenarios ends with the same final so BE HEALTHY and HODL.

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
 

Stephen Paul

Private, 1st Class
Messages
63
Thanks for the analysis. Yes not much has changed this week. Let's see what happens in the next few days.
 

ScottHughes

Corporal
Messages
101
I am hoping for plan A too but in the short term i cant see any factors making a yearly high. I glad BTC is neither looking strong or weak around 9k
 

sebking1986

Recruit
Messages
210
Hoping for Plan A but wouldn't be surprised to see Plan B play out. Hard to really gauge at the moment I'm finding
 

pezz55

Sergeant
Messages
134
View attachment 54958
Hi all. A lot of things happened lately and here I am again. This time only BTC chart (a weekly one) and no other distraction.
You can ask why and the answer is very simple – I want to be strictly price action orientated this time.
We saw a lot of movement in both directions but as you`ll see from the chart – nothing major changed.
Actual situation.
  1. The price is trying to breach the upside line but can`t do it. Only a small fake out for now. The game is not over yet.
  2. 10 EMA – the price perfectly bounced from it this week and it`s back above.
  3. 21 EMA - the price is still above it.
  4. Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
  5. Parabolic SAR – 8 weeks bullish signaling.
  6. Weekly pivot point is $9413.80 – 50:50 possibility to close the week below it which can lead to negative next week.
  7. Support and resistance:
    7.1. Support:
    1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
    2nd support - $7800
    7.2. Resistance:
    1st resistance - $9500-9800
    2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.
So as a conclusion theres plan A and B. Im 70:30 for plan A but who knows.
There`s no matter for me in long term. Both scenarios ends with the same final so BE HEALTHY and HODL.

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
Watched a very good analysis on the BTC moment suggesting that there could be a big spike to the lower side around 6k mark which will hold for a day or 2 before we rally into the year and break the 15k by September. half tempted to set some limit orders and see if i can get in on the drop.
 

momo3HC

Master Sergeant
Messages
429
BTC 28062020_1.jpg

BTC 28062020_2.jpg

Hi all. A boring week for me even with almost $1000 from the bottom to the peak of the BTC price.
This week will be only a small update from the last one plus one bullish chart and opinion from Bloomberg. I`m expecting next week and end of the month for more conclusions.
Actual situation. (chart 1)
  • The price is still trying to breach the upside line but still can`t do it.
  • 10 EMA – the price almost perfectly bounced from it again this week and it`s back above (for now).
  • 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
  • Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
  • Parabolic SAR – 9 weeks bullish signaling.
  • Weekly pivot point is $9259.78 – a similar scenario like the last week. Sorry to say it but seems like we`ll end this week below it which can lead to another negative week next week, and remember that almost In the middle of it will be the end of the month.
  • Support and resistance:
  • Support:
  • 1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
  • 2nd support - $7800
  • Resistance:
  • 1st resistance - $9500-9800
  • 2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.
A Bloomberg view. (chart 2)
According to Bloomberg, the narrowest ever bollinger bands suggest that Bitcoin is consolidating for a major breakout. In their opinion, Bitcoin is priming to break out of the upper resistance level of $13,000. At the same time, he says that it is critical that price does not fall below $6,500. For more perspective check their chart.

That`s all for now and let`s hope for a better end of the month than the actual one.
See ya next time.
 
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