Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

sebking1986

Private
Messages
14
It will be interesting to see if the halving event is already factored into the price. I wouldn't surprised to see the price hit $15k this year and some look to it as a safe haven alternative to gold against the $. If it gets anywhere close to the long term prediction then there will be loads of "I told you sos"!
 

pezz55

Private, 1st Class
Messages
30
Hi all. I`m opening this thread to follow BTC movement closer, share my ideas and discus the whole situation with it. Here`s my latest view.

Nothing major has changed lately. Consolidation time. Let`s see the chart by chart explanation below.
1st chart :
View attachment 44874
First, the price level of around $7700 is still playing as a strong support. If we go over $9100 I can say we`re safe and definitely can look for further hights, and the opposite - if we go below $7700 we`re not good. Second, if we check Simple Moving Averages (100 and 200 days) and their connectivity, things are looking not so bad. The bad points about 200SMA is that the price tried to pass above it last two days but unfortunately it failed for now. The 100SMA is still above 200 SMA but seems like it`s trying to go under. Stochastic right now is not so good too - going into overbought zone.
As a conclusion in short-term i`ve got to say it`s something like 70:30 for bearish scenario. For mid and long-term i`m more than bullish. I have a strategy which in short is to open a Long positions with every $1000 price drop (of course with mind of the leverage and the first position size). And because of the all mentioned above I`m also opening some small Short position just to catch this short-term bear market with SL $9200.
2nd chart:
View attachment 44876
As I said last time i`m still HODL-ing my BTC and even compounding it. From the second chart it`s seems it`s not only me. Based on Coinmetrics one cohort of traders are owners with a cost basis above $13,000. Prior to the market sell-off, roughly 720,000 Bitcoin belonged to this cohort. Analysis of on-chain activity indicates that virtually all Bitcoin owned by this cohort remained dormant during the sell-off, suggesting that capitulation among these traders is complete. Only 4,140 of the 720,000 Bitcoin moved over the past nine days and did not contribute meaningfully to selling pressure. These traders have apparently become numb to a 20 percent drop in prices and are now firmly long-term holders.
3rd chart:
View attachment 44877
Just a comparison between the situation back in 2014-2016 and now. The only difference is that the things now are moving faster.
BTC is dying? I don`t think so!
Bitcoin making big push this week so far
 

Sammy colt

Private, 1st Class
Messages
26
2020 has been a good year so far with BTC, I think we will see support around $9500 over the weekend and a push to $10k by the end of next week. It certainly looking promising so far.
 
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