Daily forex analysis-Followme social trading

[StraussX]

#analysis #forex #followme #socialtrading
The #GBPUSD is trading at 1.2410 due to no positive Brexit developments and an on-going Parliament deadlock at the UK.
The #UK #PM Boris Johnson’s Luxembourg visit failed to provide any key updates. The EU President criticized the Tory leaders’ depth of details while British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab reiterated the PM”s pledge to leave on October 31 and also passing the bucket of criticism back to the EU.
The #USD stays on the front foot as the recent rise in #safe-haven demand, mainly due to the attacks of Saudi Arabia, joins hands with optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks, up for early October.
While the absence of data, except the US Industrial Production for August, is likely in support of carrying the previous move forward, any positive to the UK PM during the first day of hearings at the UK’s Supreme court could help the Cable recover some of its latest losses.
#TechnicalAnalysis
Unless providing a daily closing beyond 100-day simple moving average (DMA) level near 1.2510, the quote is less likely to rise towards mid-July highs surrounding 1.2580, which in turn highlights the importance of 1.2380 and 50-DMA level of 1.2280 during further declines.

 

[StraussX]

#EURUSD #ANALYSIS #Forex #followme #socialtrading

The EUR/USD pair fails to hold on to recovery gains as it trades near 1.1070 ahead of the European session on Wednesday.


The US #IndustrialProduction and #CapacityUtilization failed to please the #USD buyers as better than forecast prints of the ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany and the Eurozone gained major attention. Also adding to the pair’s strength was the market’s risk recovery after Saudi Arabian diplomats showed readiness to overcome the recent damages due to drone attack within few weeks. Furthermore, news of the New York #Fed injecting funds through repo market and trade-positive headlines concerning the US, China and Japan also tamed the earlier #risk-off momentum.


#Traders have been #cautious since the start of Wednesday with eyes on the US #FederalReserve’s monetary policy meeting announcements up from 18:00 GMT. However, fresh trade/political headlines help extend the latest risk-on. As a result, Asian stocks report gains and the US 10-year Treasury yield remain around 1.80% by the press time.


Considering the high probability of the US Federal Reserve’s 0.25% Fed #rate, investors will be less surprised unless the US central bank offers less/more or no rate change. As a result, details of the quarterly economic forecast, press conference by the Fed Chairman #Powell and Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement will be the key to predict near-term market moves. The European Central Bank (#ECB) has recently shown its dovish bias and hence any hawkish statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) could be harmful to the pair’s latest recovery.


On the economic calendar, final reading of August month Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Eurozone and the US housing market numbers could offer intermediate moves ahead of the Fed decision.


#TechnicalAnalysis

Not only a falling trend-line since late-June, at 1.1090, but the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 1.1167 also could restrict pair’s near-term upside, which in-turn highlights 1.1100 and recent low surrounding 1.0925 as key supports.

 

[StraussX]

#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading

Hey friends! Happy new week.

Here are the data highlights for this week:

(GMT+8)

Monday:

15:30 German Markit PMI Composite (Sep)

15:30 German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

16:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite (Sep)

21:50 US Fed's Williams speech


Tuesday:

13:35 BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech

16:00 German Ifo Business Climate and US Consumer Confidence (CB)

17:55 RBA's Governor Lowe speech


Wednesday:

07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

10:00 RBNZ Rate Statement REPORT

10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision



Thursday:

20:30 US Final GDP


Friday:

07:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Sep)

20:30 US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Aug)

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index; Core Durable Goods Orders, and Personal Spending and Income



Among next week’s data highlights, traders should watch closely: (1) Eurozone flash services and manufacturing PMIs, (2) RBNZ rate decisions and (3) US macro data released throughout the week.



Eurozone PMIs in focus

The #ECB restarted #QE and cut #InterestRates last week because of the Eurozone economy. The latest PMIs provide a leading indication of economic health. Businesses and their purchasing managers tend to react quickly to changing market conditions. If the PMIs – especially in the manufacturing sector – continue to paint a bleak picture, then the single currency could come under renewed pressure in early next week. The #EURUSD bulls huffed and puffed this week, but macro concerns kept a lid on the exchange rate. With the Fed turning out to be less dovish than expected, the path of least resistance remains to the downside for this popular exchange rate.


#RBNZ likely to hold rates steady after the surprise 0.5% cut

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to hold interest rates unchanged at the historically-low rate of 1.0% after delivering a shock 50 basis point cut when a 25bp cut was expected in the previous meeting in August. In total, rates have been trimmed by the RBNZ by 75 basis points since May. Going forward, the rate setters at the central bank will likely sit on theirs hands and monitor the ongoing trade situation between the US and China. However, if the RBNZ makes any hints of forthcoming rate cuts then the NZD/USD could drop further lower after it hit a new 2019 low below the old low of 0.6270 on Friday to drop to 0.6255 at the time of this writing.


US-China Trade and #Brexit back to forefront

Deputy trade negotiators from the US and China resumed talks for the first time in almost two months this week. Their aim is to lay the groundwork for high-level talks in early October. Will they finally bridge their differences and find a way out of the trade war? As the high levels talks near, expect more tweets and tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, which could highs some risk-sensitive markets. However, for the time being, stock markets remain supported with US equity indices near record levels after a week of central bank bonanza, where the #message was loud and clear: global #InterestRates will remain at or near record #lows for the foreseeable future.


Meanwhile, hopes over an imminent Brexit breakthrough rose earlier this week and the GBP/USD shot above the 1.25 handle to trade 20 pips shy of 1.26 by early Friday session. However, it then sold off sharply after the Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney dashed those hopes by saying: “I think we need to be honest with people and say that we’re not close to that deal right now. But there is an intent I think by all sides to try and find a landing zone that everybody can live with here."


Followme, more than trade.

 

[StraussX]

#forex #followme #socialtrading

#AUDUSD has dropped into the red, having faced rejection at the 50-hour moving average line and could suffer a deeper drop if the Reserve Bank of Australia's (#RBA) governor Lowe reinforces the market expectation of a 25 basis point #RateCut on Oct. 1.


The currency pair is currently trading at session lows near 0.6765, representing 0.10% losses on the day. The pair had picked up a bid in the early Asian trading hours on comments by the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, confirming the Chinese Vice Premier’s trade visit to the US in the next week


The upside, however, was capped by the 50-hour moving average near 0.6779. Therefore, a break above that average is needed invite stronger buying pressure and yield a notable bounce.


That, however, may not happen or could be short-lived if RBA's Lowe talks dovish. The central bank chief is scheduled to speak at 09:55 GMT.


Expectations for the RBA to cut the official interest rate to 75% on Oct. 1 surged following last week's worse than expected unemployment rate.


The ASX 30 day cash rates futures contracts are currently indicating a more than 70% chance of an RBA rate cut next week.


The AUD will likely rise well above the 50-hour MA if RBA's Lowe pushes back on expectations of an October rate cut. The currency pair, however, could drop below 0.67 if Lowe talks dovish, further boosting the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on Oct. 1.

 

[StraussX]

#WeekAhead #forex #followme #socialtrading

Hey friends, this is the last day of September and the new day of this week.

Here is the highlight of this week forex news:

(GMT+8)


Monday:

09:45 Chinese manufacturing PMI

16:30 UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

20:00 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Sep)


Tuesday:

12:30 RBA meeting

22:00 US Manufacturing PMI



Wednesday:

20:15 US ADP Employment report


Thursday:

22:00 US Non-Manufacturing PMI


Friday:

20:30 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Sep)

20:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)



In this week, the economic calendar is full of market-moving data and the Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to #CutRates one more time on Tuesday. For another, Q3 is officially ending on Monday, meaning there will be some portfolio rebalancing and window dressing operations from portfolio managers to provide extra volatility. All this is happening at a time when #Brexit talks are entering a crucial stage, while the #US-China trade talks are set to resume in early October.



With regards to Brexit, reports on Friday suggested that the EU believes negotiations have stalled and that the possibility of reaching an agreement in October is very limited. So, everything is up in the air and a lot could happen. So, volatility should remain elevated, which should be good news for traders.


By the time we get to Friday’s #NonfarmPayrolls report, a lot could have happened. But those employment figures will likely be the week’s main scheduled event. With jobs growth slowing over the past few months, another disappointing showing could increase bets on further rate cuts from the Fed and, in turn, derail the dollar’s rally. Or will there be a surprise pick-up in wage growth? If that’s the case, the USD could remain supported for a while yet.


Ahead of Friday’s US jobs report, we will have had the latest manufacturing PMIs from both China and the US. After a shocking German PMI this week, growth concerns could really come to the forefront should manufacturers at the world’s largest economies also paint a bleak picture. So, commodity dollars could be in for a wild ride.

 

[StraussX]

#forex #analysis #socialtrading #fintech

The #GBPUSD pair reversed an early European session dip to sub-1.2200 levels and rallied around 30-35 pips in the last hour, albeit lacked any strong follow-through and quickly retreated few pips thereafter.


The continued showing some resilience below the 1.2200 round-figure marks and managed to regain some positive traction amid some renewed US Dollar weakness. The latest developments on the US-China trade front threatened to derail already delicate trade negotiations and turned out to be one of the key factors weighing on the Greenback.


Brexit uncertainties continue to cap the upside

Apart from a subdued USD price action, the uptick lacked any major fundamental catalyst and remained capped in the wake of overnight reports that Brexit talks between Britain and the European Union were close to breaking down. Meanwhile, the UK PM Boris Johnson reiterated that they would leave the EU by October 31st and revived fears of a no-deal Brexit.


Moreover, the latest comments by the Irish finance minister, Paschal Donohoe clearly indicated that any Brexit deal is nowhere in the offering, which might further contribute towards keeping a lid on any runaway rally for the major. Donohoe said that there is a big gap between the UK and the EU on the crucial Irish backstop issue and constructive engagement is the only choice.


Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before confirming that the recent slide from the vicinity of the 1.2600 handle is already over and (or) positioning for any further near-term appreciating move amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases - either from the UK or the US.


Later during the early North-American session, a scheduled speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting held on September 17-18.

 

[StraussX]

#USDJPY #forex #analysis #followme #socialtrading

The #USDJPY pair finally broke out of its daily consolidative trading range and jumped to near two-week tops, around the 108.25 region in the last hour.


A sustained move above 100-day EMA was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and remained supportive of some follow-through buying interest on Friday.


The pair is now trying to build on the momentum further beyond a four-month-old descending trend-line resistance amid growing US-China trade optimism.


This is closely followed by 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 112.40-104.45 downfall, which if cleared will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.


Beyond the said hurdle around mid-108.00s, the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 109.00 handle en-route 61.8% Fibo. resistance near the 109.30-35 region.


On the flip side, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 107.85 region (100-day EMA), which if broken might negate the constructive outlook.

 

[StraussX]

#GBPUSD #analysis #forex #forexnews #socialtrading

The #GBPUSD pair remained under some selling pressure amid a flurry of #Brexit headlines, albeit managed to recover around 60-65 pips from daily lows touched in the last hour.


The pair failed to capitalize on the previous session's strong upsurge to the highest level since May 21 and met with some aggressive supply on Wednesday amid fading optimism over a possible #Brexit agreement before the fast-approaching October 31 deadline.


Against the backdrop of the #DUP concerns on the UK PM Boris Johnson’s Brexit concessions, a UK official said that the government was downbeat on chances of a Brexit deal, exerted some heavy #pressure on the #Pound.


The #intraday selling pressure aggravated further, dragging the pair closer to mid-1.2600s, in reaction to reports that suggested technical Brexit negotiations have reached an impasse. The report further added that the EU sees Brexit deal as impossible unless the UK moves.


With the latest #Brexit developments turning out to be an exclusive driver of the intraday volatility, the pair seemed rather unaffected by a subdued US Dollar price action, which remained on the defensive amid the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields.


If the GBP/USD pair continues to show some resilience below the 1.2700 round-figure mark or the current pullback marks the end of the recent strong #bullish momentum that started last week and the resumption of the recent bearish trend. #forex #followme #socialtrading

 

[StraussX]

#Forex #Analysis #SocialTrading #ForexSignals

The #USDJPY pair extended its #sideways consolidative price action through the Asian session on Thursday and remained confined in a narrow trading band above mid-108.00s.


The mentioned region marks a resistance breakpoint and coincides with the 50% Fibonacci level of the 112.40-104.45 downfall and should act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders.


Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and have also eased from slightly overbought conditions on the 4-hourly chart, favouring short-term bullish traders.


A sustained move beyond the 109.00 handle will further reinforce the constructive set-up and set the stage for an accelerated move up towards the 109.30 next resistance zone.


The said hurdle represents early August swing highs and 61.8% Fibo. level, which if cleared will negate any bearish bias and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.


The pair could then surpass an intermediate resistance near the 109.60-65 region and aim towards reclaiming the key 110.00 psychological mark en-route mid-110.00s supply zone.


On the flip side, any pullback below the mentioned resistance turned support might still be seen as a buying opportunity and help limit the downside near the 109.00-108.90 #SupportArea.

 

[StraussX]

#WeekAhead #Forex #Followme #SocialTrading

Hi Traders, happy new week!

“He who seizes the right moment is the right man.”


Here is this week forex calendar highlights:

(GMT+0)

Monday

01:30 China PBoC Interest Rate Decision

reaction to Brexit vote and Canadian elections


Tuesday

08:00 EuropeECB Bank Lending Survey

12:30 Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)


Wednesday

14:30 Crude oil inventories


Thursday

07:30 German Markit PMI Composite (Oct)

07:30 German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

08:00 Eurozone PMIs

11:45 ECB Deposit Rate Decision

11:45 ECB Interest Rate Decision

12:30 US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Sep)

12:30 ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference



Friday

06:00 German GfK Consumer Climate

08:00 German Ifo Business Climate




#GBPUSD #Brexit

The GBP/USD was continuing to find buyers late in the day on Friday, with investors reacting to some UK media reports that said Boris Johnson had secured enough backing to support his deal. However, what matters is the actual votes in the ‘Super Saturday’ sitting.


#Labour is strongly advising its #MPs to oppose the deal, and most, perhaps all, are likely to do so. 10 ‘no’ votes appear all but inevitable from MPs of Ireland’s DUP party that has also vowed to oppose the deal. So, the fate of Boris Johnson’s plan hangs partly on Tory pro-Brexit MPs who have repeatedly voted down previous deals

The #PM is busily making pleading calls to MPs ‘across the Commons’ as the weekend approaches, says Downing Street. There’s really no telling how persuasive he will be, till the result of the vote is known. It’s a recipe for investors to execute only the most necessary moves in advance, before a possible ‘manic Monday’ in Saturday’s wake

#MarketsReaction

Should the deal get the majority required in Parliament for the #UK to leave the #EU in an orderly fashion, we could expect sterling to rally and the #FTSE to jump higher in a knee-jerk reaction, similar to what we saw on Thursday’s announcement of the Brexit deal. However, the stronger pound could eventually weigh on the #FTSE given the index’s high percentage of multinationals earning abroad which will be hit by the less favorable exchange rate.

Should Boris Johnson’s selling skills fail him, and the deal does not pass through #Parliament we can expect the pound and the FTSE to sell off sharply, the reverse of Thursday’s reaction, with the FTSE then potentially rebounding as it responds to sterling’s decline.


#ECB

It will be #MarioDraghi’s last policy meeting as the head of the #ECB, and having just re-introduced #QE at the last meeting he will likely go out with a whimper. The euro has appreciated since the ECB’s last meeting, partly because of Brexit optimism and also due to a weakening dollar. Also, raised hopes over a US-China trade resolution, which could boost Chinese demand for Eurozone exports, has also supported the single currency. Furthermore, several ECB policymakers have criticized Draghi’s renewed bond-buying program and called for a change of strategy when Christine Lagarde takes over next month. The probability of further policy loosening has therefore fallen.