Daily Market Overview by FXNET

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis April 14

EUR/USD moved by 11 focuses unable to move over the 1.39 level. The EUR is flat to yesterday's nearby, having neglected to support a short rally over 1.3900. A few outskirts yields have dropped to new lows—note that both Italian and Spanish 10‐years are currently at 3.2%. German CPI came in obviously with feature tumbling from 1.2% in February to 1.0%y/y in March; the delicateness was normal yet denote a three‐year low in German feature inflation and will weigh on Eurozone inflation, which thusly will weigh on the ECB. Today a viewpoint update for Portugal (Fitch to positive) was offset by a standpoint downsize to Finland (S&p to negative on development concerns). Next week's center will be the arrival of Eurozone CPI, anticipated that will raise 0.5%y

GBP/USD gave up 58 points to trade at 1.6726 as the US dollar gained momentum. . The GBP is soft, down 0.2% since yesterday’s NA close failing to sustain brief gains above 1.68. Construction output was soft, down 2.8%m/m and up 2.8%y/y. Next week’s focus will be the release of CPI, expected to fall to 1.6% on headline and core as well as employment.

AUD/USD eased by 9 points as traders booked profits after last week’s strong showing and continued worries over the Chinese economy with GDP due later in the week and the holiday season many traders are booking profits and moving to the sidelines. The Aussie is trading at 0.9390 well above its 2014 average range.

USD/JPY eased by 7 points as traders moved to the safety of the Japanese currency, pushing the pair to trade at 101.56. Asian share markets gave up more ground in early trade this morning after a dismal week on Wall Street, helping underpin the safe-haven yen. The low-yielding yen benefited from the heightened risk aversion. The dollar was down about 0.1 percent in early trading at 101.56 yen, after touching a 3-1/2 week low of 101.32 yen on Friday, a far cry from a 2-1/2 month high of 104.13 yen set on April 4.

Gold moved between gains and losses today, to trade at 1321.70 its highest level in weeks. Risk appetite was also curbed by tensions in Ukraine, where pro-Moscow protesters seized arms in one city and declared a separatist republic in another, in moves Kiev described as part of a Russian-orchestrated plan to justify an invasion to dismember the country. Gold, seen as an alternative investment, usually benefits from economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis April 16
EUR/USD fell on Tuesday after the arrival of a disillusioning German ZEW Economic Sentiment report. The administration reported a drop to 43.2 from 46.6. Moguls were searching for 46.3. The decrease in the ZEW puts further weight on the European Central Bank to make a move to empower the economy, however the ECB is liable to hold up until the arrival of most recent CPI information on Wednesday. This report is relied upon to show a 0.5% perusing which will be unaltered from the past month.

GBP/USD rallied after U.K. inflation data fell in-line with expectations. The headline year-on-year CPI data fell to the lowest level since October 2009 and the year-on-year measure of retail inflation declined to its weakest level in nearly five years. One bright spot was the surge in the House Price Index. This report exceeded expectations with a 9.1% rise. Traders were pricing in an increase of 7.2%.

AUD/USD rose slightly following the release of the latest Reserve Bank minutes, but failed to hold on to its gains. The minutes didn’t offer any surprises for traders and was viewed as somewhat neutral. Some traders thought the recent run up in the Aussie would have been addressed in the minutes, but the central bank seemed to be unfazed by the price level.

USD/JPY finished flat-to-slightly better following the release of better-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data. According to the latest data, the U.S. CPI rose 0.2 percent in March, versus expectations of a 0.1 percent gain. Helping to limit gains was the weak Empire State Manufacturing Index. Traders were looking for a robust gain of 8.2. The actual report showed a decline of 1.3.

Gold futures plunged sharply lower after the better-than-expected U.S. CPI report helped trigger a rally in the dollar. Since gold is dollar-denominated, a stronger dollar tends to weaken demand for gold, pressuring the commodity.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis April 17
EUR/USD gained 20 points to trade at 1.3835 and I cannot explain why. CPI missed expectations which will force action from the ECB. Perhaps it is a correction after comments from Mr. Draghi and other ECB members over the weekend about stimulus to push inflation upwards had already been taken into account by the markets.

GBP/USD remains the stellar performer as the UK economy keeps moving forward showing a stronger recovery than the US. Today the unemployment figure drops 2 points to report at 6.9% which might push the Bank of England to consider raising interest rates.

USD/CAD traded between small gains and losses as the US dollar gained a bit of momentum to trade at 1.0981 ahead of US and CAD data due towards the end of the European session.

Gold is trading just over the 1300 level at 1302.50 up $2.20 today ahead of US data and this evenings speech by FOMC Director Yellen. Pressures continue to climb in the Ukraine but traders are no longer moving to safety. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak on monetary policy and the economic recovery later on Wednesday.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis April 22
EUR/USD completed marginally better on Monday joined by unstable value movement. Volume was down as a result of the developed Easter festival. Germany, Italy and France are all on bank occasion today.

Trading was limited in the GBP/USD today due to an extended Easter bank holiday. Later this week, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest data from the Monetary Policy Committee although this report is expected to show no surprises. On deck is the MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, followed by Public Sector Net Borrowing.

AUD/USD saw some volatility on Monday. Thin holiday trading conditions may have had something to do with the two-sided trade. Traders could be positioning themselves ahead of the CB Leading Index report

Gold futures were down a little more than 0.50 percent on Monday. Price reached a low of $1281.80 before stabilizing. The market crossed to the weak side of a retracement level at $1289.45 before taking out last week’s low. Traders are looking for the slide to continue to at least the April 1 bottom at $1277.40, followed by a 61.8% level at $1265.20.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis April 23

EUR/USD picked up 20 focuses to exchange at 1.3813 staying inside its late exchanging reach with no Eurozone information and US information still before the businesses.

GBP/USD was the star performer today adding 35 points to trade at 1.6827. Decent factory production figures combined with another strong month for the labor market sent March’s index of US Leading Indicators higher.

AUD is trading at 0.9348 after trading as high as 0.95 just a week ago. The US dollar has climbed above the 80 level as is expected to continue to gain as US data supports the defrost of the US economy after the severe winter freeze.

USD/JPY was the most active currency pair on Monday and continues to climb on Tuesday trading at 102.67 above its average trading range as data released on the Easter Monday holiday upset traders and analysts.

Gold recovered a few dollars today moving between small gains and losses with little direction as tensions seemed to ease in Ukraine. Gold is trading at 1291.40. Gold recovered from early losses on Tuesday as the dollar gave back some gains, but sentiment among investors continued to be fragile on further outflows from bullion-backed funds.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis April 24
EUR/USD moved to exchange at 1.3838. The euro zone streak PMI was stronger than anticipated, and this helped lift the euro about a large portion of a penny and further bond its recuperation from the dip to seven-day lows yesterday.

GBP/USD eased by 28 points to trade at 1.6795 after the MPC meeting minutes seemed to indicated that the members were not contemplating an interest rate increase in the near future.

AUD/USD recovered 4 points after Wednesday’s decline after inflation reported lower than expected. The AUD is trading at 0.9294 well below its April trading range. Even the declining US dollar did not help support the currency. Traders were hit with a decline in China manufacturing.

USD/JPY eased by 21 points as the US dollar declined to trade at 102.32 after the dollar declined on lackluster new home sales. “The WSJ reported yesterday that the BOJ may upgrade its inflation forecast for FY2014 if the April Tokyo CPI, due to be released on Friday, is strong.” “Unnamed sources familiar with the matter in a WSJ article emphasized that a 2% inflation forecast for FY2015-16 does not necessarily mean the BOJ will consider exiting monetary easing any time soon.

Gold recovered $5.30 to trade at 1286.40 but remains directionless as data continues to support an increase in tapering at the next FOMC meet..

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis April 25
EUR/USD picked up 11 point today after US information disillusioned trader yesterday with new home deals falling admirably underneath desires. The euro was exchanging at 1.3828 in front of Mario Draghi's discourse this evening where he is relied upon to remark on the high cost of the euro.

GBP/USD gained 13 points to trade at 1.6796 as traders recovered from their disappointment in the MPC minutes. Speculators seem sure that the BoE was close to raising interest rates but the minutes showed that the members were not even considering a rate hike at this time and are waiting for more assurances that the economy is under full recovery.

AUD/USD recovered 4 points after Wednesday’s decline after inflation reported lower than expected. The AUD is trading at 0.9294 well below its April trading range. Even the declining US dollar did not help support the currency. Traders were hit with a decline in China manufacturing.

USD/JPY eased by 21 points as the US dollar declined to trade at 102.32 after the dollar declined on lackluster new home sales

Gold is flat for the day moving between gains and losses with no direction as traders take a breather after the situation in the Ukraine seems to have puffed out. Gold remains at the 1284.00 price level.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis April 30
EUR/USD is exchanging at 1.3818 around 33 focuses after the US dollar kept on gainning on stronger information and the moving of pressures in the Ukraine. The euro fell Tuesday taking after German expansion assumes that fortify the view that the European Central Bank will need to grow jolt measures.

GBP/USD gained 10 points to trade at 1.6818 contrary to market expectations after GDP missed expectations but still printed well above the previous month. Traders are now sure that the Bank of England will begin to increase interest rates this year.

AUD/USD is trading at 0.9249 in the red this morning as traders wait for several major events this week, as there has nothing to affect the currency value except for continued worries about China after the IMF revised China’s growth for 2015 downwards.

USD/JPY is dead on its trading range at 102.49 ahead of the Bank of Japan decision. Although most believe that the Bank will sit tight at this meeting traders are hoping for some indication of if and when the bank is expecting to add additional stimulus and their evaluation of the current economic situation.

Gold gave up just over $4 to trade at 1294.80 ahead of the Fed decision as global sentiment shifted to a more risk on attitude as its seems that tensions in the Ukraine have petered out and the insignificant sanctions mounted by both the US and the EU had little effects on the markets.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis May 1
EUR/USD gained 11 points after eurozone inflation printed better this month than the previous months. But it still does not take the ECB off the hook.

GBP/USD eased by 11 points to trade at 1.6817 as traders sold off to book profits after the pair skyrocketed on yesterday’s GDP data. The pound performed fairly well yesterday as the Office for National Statistics announced that the British economy expanded by 0.8% in the first quarter.

AUD/USD climbed by 18 points after private sector credit met expectations and a general shift in sentiment to support the commodity currencies after falling on Monday,

USD/JPY is dead on its trading range at 102.49 ahead of the Bank of Japan decision. Although most believe that the Bank will sit tight at this meeting traders are hoping for some indication of if and when the bank is expecting to add additional stimulus and their evaluation of the current economic situation.

Gold gave up $4 to trade at 1292.30 ahead of the FOMC decision. There was no change to the holdings of the SPDR gold ETF or the Gold Trust, once again. Their respective holdings still stand at 792.139 tonnes and 164.41 tonnes.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

EUR/USD is exchanging at 1.3880 crawling higher on Thursday having ridden out two days of more terrible than anticipated news on Eurozone swelling and the US economy that have not in a broad sense modified observations of the approach viewpoint in either.

GBP/USD outperformed its crosses to hit a 2014 trading at 1.6911 after strong manufacturing PMI data surprised the markets to the upside.

AUD/USD is down just 2 points at 0.9287 after data releases this morning. Australia’s dollar held a two-day gain after Chinese data showed manufacturing picked up in April.

USD/JPY is trading at 102.30 up by 7 points after the US dollar declined on Wednesday; the pair is recovering the overreaction to lackluster GDP data but extremely positive ADP payroll numbers.

Gold continued to creep down trading at 1285.00 down almost $11 after the US FOMC continued its tapering program and tensions eased in the Ukraine. Traders pushed the Dow Jones to a record high yesterday.