Daily Market Overview by FXNET

[Froso@FXNET]

Daily Outlook 15 july

EUR declined marginally against the USD and closed at 1.3869, in a quiet holiday trading session. However, later during the day, the US Dollar benefitted from data that showed the ISM manufacturing PMI in the US rose to a four-month high reading of 54.9 in April

GBP rose 0.08% against the USD and closed at 1.6890, after Markit PMI for the UK manufacturing sector rose more than market expectations to a reading of 57.3 in April

AUD weakened 0.12% against the USD to close at 0.9272.In economic news, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) index of commodity prices fell to a new four-year low in April.

USD strengthened 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 102.31, following strong US ISM manufacturing PMI and consumer spending data.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis july 16
EUR/USD picked up 52 focuses to exchange at 1.3927 setting itself up for a significant fall. Climbing relentlessly after eurozone administrations PMI basically beat desires and Spanish unemployment reported much superior to anticipated. Numerous accept this is all a measurable abnormality as Spain is not in a recuperation mode and with the Easter occasion amidst the month a considerable measure of information was most likely not arranged.

GBP/USD added 83 points to be the best market performed today after Services PMI data beat expectations. The pound soared to trade at 1.6951 with the possibility of breaking the 1.70 level later in the session.

AUD/USD gained 7 points after the announcement of the RBA decision to hold rates and policy this morning. The pair is trading at 0.9280. In a strange twist, data showed that Australia’s trade surplus has narrowed, driven by a fall in mining exports.

USD/JPY climbed off the 101 level touched as markets opened on Monday on safe haven trades with tensions escalating in Ukraine. The yen strengthen last week as the BoJ held rates and fire offering a better than expected assessment of the Japanese economy.

Gold is trading at 1307.60 down by $1.70 as traders closely monitor the situation in Ukraine but strong US data seems to be outweighing the flight to safety as ISM data a day before surprised markets to the upside. Gold has been trading sideways after it fell sharply after hitting a seven-month high at 1392 USD in mid-March.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis july 17
EUR/USD gave back most of its earlier gains to trade at 1.3932 ahead of the European Central Bank meeting scheduled tomorrow. A dismal German factory orders release also weighed on the currency.

GBP/USD could not gain momentum today and is trading at 1.6971 as traders sell off to book profits as the currency bounces off a record high. Technical selling keeps triggering every time the pound gathers a bit of momentum.

AUD/USD gave up 8 points this morning to trade at 0.9340 in sympathy to the decline of the kiwi dollar after the Director of the New Zealand central bank said that he would intervene to reduce the strength of the kiwi

USD/JPY eased to 101.58 dipping 10 points. The US dollar remains weak, but flat in this morning’s session. Therefore the moves have been in the strength of the Japanese yen, as traders remain in risk off mode pushing the strength of the yen.

Gold eased a bit today as traders prepared for Janet Yellen’s testimony due in the later part of the day. Gold is trading at 1303.90 down by $4.70. Tensions in the Ukraine seem to be easing today after violence this past weekend turned up the heat.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysisjuly 18
EUR/USD gained 9 points to trade at 1.3765 recovering a few pips after its tumble since Mr. Draghi’s comments on Thursday. The euro-area’s fastest economic growth in three years probably won’t be enough to stop Mario Draghi from easing monetary policy.

USD/JPY gained 14 points heading back to its 2014 trading range around the 102.50 level as tensions in the Ukraine ease after the weekend vote seemed to end a good deal of the violence.

GBP/USD gained 35 points today to trade at 1.6886 as the US dollar eased. Another transition session Monday, with the dollar from little changed to a tad weaker versus major’s competitors and the pound among the best performers ahead of the BoE Quarterly Inflation Report to be released next Wednesday.

AUD/USD is trading at 0.9362 remaining strong even as the US dollar continues to climb back towards the 80 level. The Aussie is trading flat this morning making little of the business confidence release as traders are expecting comments from the RBA about the strength of the AUD.

Gold moved between small gains and losses up by $3 at 1290.90 at this writing. “Precious metals have been extremely quiet this morning, holding tight ranges,” said William Adams, head of research at FastMarkets.com. “The gold price continues to oscillate sideways either side of $1,290 an ounce — for now we would expect more of the same.” Gold could benefit from some technically-driven buying said Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis july 21
EUR/USD recovered 21 points after German CPI met expectations and French payrolls printed at expectations. The euro is trading at 1.3573. German inflation slowed in May, with prices down 0.9 percent year-on-year, to their lowest since February 2010, the Federal Statistical Office reported on Friday. The decline in energy prices was the major factor behind the drop. Prices fell 0.1 percent in monthly terms.

GBP/USD soared on comments from BoE Governor Carney after he mentioned that interest rates might increase sooner than later. The pound is trying to violate the 1.70 level trading at 1.6974. BoE‘s Carney late yesterday trade a U-turn by saying that a rate hike may come earlier.

AUD/USD eased slightly this morning dropping 6 points to trade at 0.9396 as traders sold off to book profits after last week’s rally. The iron ore price is flirting with the crucial $US90 a ton threshold after inching even lower over the weekend as weakened steel demand in China continued to weigh on the commodity.

USD/JPY continued to decline giving up 11 points to trade at 101.88 as traders shifted to risk off mode as violence escalated in Iraq. Whether geopolitical risks have any currency impact depends on how the situation in Iraq and Ukraine impacts the equity markets, but so far their reaction appears limited.

Gold continued to trade in the green adding 50 cents today to trade at 1274.50 as tensions in Iraq sent traders looking for a bit of safety. Between 2010 and 2013, the number of al Qaeda and al Qaeda-related groups rose 58 percent and the number of “Salafi jihadists” – violent proponents of an extreme form of Islam – more than doubled, according to a report by the RAND Corp think tank. Daniel Benjamin, former U.S. State Department counterterrorism coordinator under President Barack Obama, said he was “considerably more optimistic 18 months ago than … now” about the threat posed by al Qaeda-related groups. Few examples are more vivid than the fall of northern Iraq, which has raised the prospect of the country’s disintegration as a unified state.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Forex Daily Analysis - 22 July 2014

EUR/USD moved by 7 focuses on astonishing information from Germany. The pair exchanged at 1.3566 after German ZEW monetary opinion tumbled indicating concerns after the ECB included its huge weapons a couple of weeks prior. The dollar edged higher, however was kept to a thin run by alert in front of this present week's U.s. Central bank gathering and worry about raising viciousness in Iraq.

GBP/USD eased by 4 points after the release of inflation data today. The pound is trading at 1.6980 after CPI and PPI both printed below forecast. The Pound immediately weakened against the majors this morning, dropping from a 19 month high against the Euro and close to a 5-year high versus the U.S Dollar.

AUD/USD took a fall this morning after dovish comments from the RBA minutes release. The Aussie gave up 45 points to trade at 0.9355. The Aussie dropped 0.4 percent to 93.66 U.S. cents as of 11:12 a.m. in Tokyo. It rose to 94.38 on June 12, approaching this year’s high of 94.61 The AUD dropped after the Reserve Bank reiterated it expects to keep its benchmark at a record low and a report that investment into China unexpectedly declined.

USD/JPY gained 19 points to trade at 102.03 as traders showed disappointment in Prime Minister Abe’s revised “Arrow Three” plans. Traders also are keeping an eye on escalating violence in Iraq as the US prepares for a meeting with Iran. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s team on Monday unveiled more policies aimed at cheering companies and investors, including a plan to reduce corporate taxes, with the aim of raising share prices at home.

Gold continued to ease throughout the day giving up $10.50 to trade at 1264.80. Gold price fell further from a three-week high as investors withdrew money from the top bullion fund at the fastest pace in two months and as markets nervously waited for a Federal Reserve meeting this week.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamentals analysis 23 July

EUR/USD surrendered 40 focuses today to exchange at 1.3484 as the US dollar profited from the place of refuge disposition of the business sectors on any expectations of a stronger recuperation in the US while Eurozone viewpoints get to be troubling as issues mounted in the Ukraine. Indeed with the European Central Bank's remarkable simple approach including the as of late uncovered extraordinary negative store rates, close zero premium rates and a new adjust of ease advances to pump up loaning the saving money framework is delicate.

GBP/USD eased as traders moved to the US dollar for safety giving up 9 points to trade at 1.7068. The dollar index rose to a six-week high on Tuesday, buoyed by its gains against the euro as speculators bet on a robust inflation reading in the United States

AUD/USD gained 12 points this morning as global tensions eased a bit in the morning. The Aussie is trading at 0.9386. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens said quantitative easing had clearly worked to lower borrowing costs across the globe, but it was not clear that this had led to much higher business investment.

USD/JPY gained 7 points to trade at 101.47 as global tensions eased a bit. Japan is unlikely to meet its international commitment to achieve a government budget surplus by fiscal 2020, even if it proceeds with another consumption tax increase, sources said Saturday. New U.S. dollar-denominated funds sold to Japanese retail investors have attracted 39% of almost ¥1 trillion, or $9.7 billion, of inflows from May 2013 to June this year, reports Ben McLannahan for Financial Times.

Gold reacted in the reverse of expectations falling 7.00 to trade at 1306.90 as traders moved into the US dollar as the alternative for safety. Prices gained around 0.1 percent and rose above $1,300 an ounce on Monday as U.S. equities slipped and political tensions intensified after the shooting down of a passenger plane in eastern Ukraine last week and incessant fighting in Gaza. Bullion rebounded after last week’s two-percent drop, as investors took profits after Thursday’s strong rally when a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine was shot down and Israel launched a massive ground offensive into Gaza against Hamas militants.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis July 24
EUR/USD is down a point at 1.3464 after brokers stress over the financial soundness of the eurozone. The euro touched multi-month lows against the dollar today as speculators worry about the effect on the eurozone economy of conceivable new endorses against Russia after the bringing down of Flight Mh17

GBP/USD tumbled by 21 points to trade at 1.7044 after BBA mortgages missed expectations. Sterling pared gains against the dollar and the euro on Wednesday while gilt futures rose after minutes from this month’s Bank of England policy meeting were not as hawkish as some in the market had anticipated.

AUD/USD is moving between small losses and gains as the strong US dollar weighs on the commodity currency but strong data from China seems to be keeping this in balance as the pair trades at 0.9456. The Aussie climbed this week from below the 94 level and has been able to sustain its strength after the RBA avoided mentioning the strength of the currency in recent public statements.

USD/JPY gained 4 points to trade at 101.53 as the US dollar continues to climb and the JPY eased after the release of trade balance numbers. Japan’s trade deficit ballooned to a record in the first half of the year as exports fell further in June, data showed Thursday, ramping up pressure on the central bank to unveil fresh measures to boost the economy.

Gold has been trading with little momentum today gaining $2.50 to trade at 1308.80. Geopolitical concerns eased somewhat while traders continued to consider the impact of potentially tighter economic sanctions against Russia for its support of Ukrainian rebel militias accused of shooting down a Malaysian airliner last week.

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Fundamental Analysis July 25
EUR/USD picked up 16 focuses to exchange at 1.3479 after German and French PMI information printed on the positive site. Particularly solid numbers from Germany gave the cash a bit of energy as the US dollar debilitated as dealers start to concentrate on the FOMC meeting one week from now. Cash dealers are wagering that the Federal Reserve has stolen a walk against opponent national puts money headed straight toward higher premium rates.

GBP/USD is trading at 1.7018 down by 26 points today as the US dollar eased also. UK retail sales missed expectations with CORE year over year and month over month both missing expectation. The overall monthly increase pushed retail sales in the second quarter up 1.6 percent compared with the previous three months, a 16th consecutive increase and the longest period of growth since 2007. From the same three months a year earlier, sales advanced 4.5 percent, the most for a calendar quarter

AUD/USD tumbled by 13 points to trade at 0.9405 after rallying this week and looking like it could break the 95 level, the pair have tumbled for the last two days. The International Monetary Fund has cut its global economic growth forecast for 2014 because of weakness in the world’s two biggest economies.

USD/JPY showed little reaction to the release of inflation data which met expectations today. The pair is trading at 101.79. The dollar extended gains versus the yen after jobless claims fell by 19,000 to 284,000 in the week ended July 19, the fewest since February 2006 and lower than any economist surveyed by Bloomberg forecast, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington

Gold is easing as traders look elsewhere for returns. Gold declined $7.30 to trade at 1297.40. Money managers trimmed their net-long position by 8.5 per cent, US government data showed. Prices dropped 2 per cent last week, the first loss since May and helping to erase $1.38 billion from the value of exchange-traded products (ETPs) backed by the metal

 

[Froso@FXNET]

Forex Daily Analysis - 28 July 2014

EUR/USD tumbled 13 focuses after German business information baffled dealers. The euro is exchanging at 1.3450 and keeps on decliing. German business estimation tumbled to its most reduced level in nine months in July in a sign that organizations in Europe's biggest economy are agonized over the emergencies in Ukraine, Iraq and Gaza. The Munich-based Ifo research organization's business atmosphere list, directed from July 4 to 24 and focused around a month to month study of exactly 7,000 organizations, tumbled to 108.0 from 109.7 as geopolitical pressures weighed on certainty.

GBP/USD is slightly in the red against the strong US dollar. The GBP is trading at 1.6984 on continued weakness after a miss in yesterday’s data and today GDP met expectations, but did not support the currency after the BoE made it clear that it was not going to raise interest rates any time soon.

AUD/USD is flat this morning at 0.9395 with almost no volume. The markets seem spooked as traders are just uninterested in making commitments. The AUD remains in a strong range but below last week when its momentum seemed to be pushing it towards the 95 price level. In Australia, no major economic data is scheduled. In the US, the pending home sales index, the “flash” services index and Dallas Federal Reserve index are all released.

USD/JPY is trading at 101.80 down 4 points as the yen gains a bit of momentum on safe haven trades as most market focus remains on the Ukraine, Gaza, Iraq and Libya. World violence and turmoil are keeping most traders out of the markets today. Israel renewed its operations in the Gaza Strip yesterday after a brief cease-fire called by the United Nations for humanitarian reasons ended as militants in the Hamas-controlled territory launched more rockets and mortars.

Gold recovered $2 as traders took advantage of depressed prices to buy up the commodity while the US dollar soared above the 81 price level. German business sentiment fell to its lowest level in nine months in July in a sign that firms in Europe’s largest economy are worried about the crises in Ukraine, Iraq and Gaza.