Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Asian Session Was under the Sign of Greece Again

During the Asian trading session on Thursday, stock markets in the region were declining, as well as the US dollar. Vista Brokers analysts remind that today is a "day X" for Greece - the country has only a few hours to somehow avoid default.

Today the European Union leaders once again gather in Brussels to discuss the possibility of Athens salvation. If no agreement is concluded, Greece will not be able to make a payment on the IMF loan in the amount of 1.6 billion euros on 30 June. In such a case it will default, in consequence of which the country could leave the euro zone, which will bring the financial markets even more uncertainty.

Let's go back to the Thursday's Asian session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was actually holding close to the previous session's close. Japan's Nikkei has fallen by 0.3% after earlier on Wednesday, it has risen to the highest level since 1996 on optimism about Greece's agreement with creditors. Support for major Japanese index has also information that the US President Barack Obama is actively working on Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), where Japan has an important economic role.

The dollar index DXY has fallen by 0.1%. The euro was traded higher against the US currency, as the hope of a favorable outcome of the situation with Greece still persists. It should be noted that on Wednesday was published the final data on changes in US GDP for the 1st quarter, which coincided with the forecast (-0.7% with revision to -0.2%). Now the market is too busy with Greece to pay much attention to this fact, but the positive GDP figures confirm expectations about the Fed rate hike in September.

On the commodities market, crude oil has not changed in price, remaining close to the level of $ 60.28. Brent crude oil has risen by 0.3% to $ 63.68. Spot gold has risen by 0.2% to $ 1,177.22 per ounce.

 

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Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

We continue to hold the short position from 1181.87. In general the market is calm, and it allows us to gradually move the stop-trade after the price on the red Alligator line level (current value is 1180.88). We have only one additional signal from the «red zone». According to the classical technical analysis, prices have reached the support level, a breakthrough of which would be beneficial for us.

Volatility: 38%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate


Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

The uptrend has been placed with the correction, and our long position was closed with the bar closure below the red Alligator line. Currently we are out of the market. We have placed pending breakthrough orders at the nearest fractals levels on both sides of Alligator's teeth.

Volatility: 56%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate


Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

The market is frozen – nobody wants to predict the result of the situation with Greece amid those conflicting rumors that appear in news line. Meanwhile, the order to sale from 1.1310 is still in the market. We have a signal to add volume «3 red bars above zero» on АС.

Volatility: 44%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate


Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

We continue to hold a short position from 1.5803. Despite rather calm recent trading, we have additional signals from a «red zone», a «saucer» on АО, as well as «2 red bars below zero» on АС.

Volatility: 63%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

 

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Oil Is in Limbo because of Greece

On Thursday, oil futures can not determine with the direction, moving up and down. Vista Brokers analysts say that traders are awaiting the outcome of Greece's talks with international creditors, which continues today in Brussels.

During the European trading session on the Nymex crude oil futures for delivery in August have fallen in price by 0.22% to $ 60.14 per barrel. Recall that the day before August futures have fallen by 1.21% to $ 60.27 after it became known that in the US last week, gasoline inventories rose by 0.7 million barrels and distillates - by 1.8 million barrels. At the same time oil reserves fell by 4.9 million barrels, far exceeding the forecast.

August futures for Brent today have fallen on ICE Futures Exchange in London by 0.04% to $ 63.47 a barrel, after falling 1.49% to $ 63.49 on Wednesday.

 

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 06/26

On Friday, a lot of important data will be published during the Asian trading session. In New Zealand, has already released the trade balance data. Analysts Vista Brokers recommend to pay attention to the indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan, as well as the speach of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.

23:30 *** Consumer Price Index - May (Japan)
23:30 ** Household Spending - May (Japan)
23:30 ** National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food - May (Japan)
23:30 ** National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy - May (Japan)
23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index - June (Japan)
23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food - June (Japan)
23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy - June (Japan)

Strong impact on the market (JPY). According to forecasts growth of consumer prices in Japan in May was 0.4% after 0.6% the previous month. Growth of the consumer price index in Tokyo is expected at 0.5%.

14:00 ** Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment - June (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan allows to estimate the consumer confidence in the current and future state of the economy. It is a very important leading indicator of future spending. The excess of the forecast is favorable for the currency.

14:15 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - June (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Carney comments about the state of the UK economy may seriously affect the dynamics of the pound, because on their basis market participants will draw conclusions about the future strategy of the Bank of England.

 

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Calm before the Storm

On Thursday, trading in EUR / USD was restrained amid expectations of the result of Greece's negotiations with international creditors. Vista Brokers analysts say that because of the situation, which may result with a default of the country in the near future, in financial markets therewas a tense silence - the calm before the storm. Periodically, markets were showing signs of excitement after another appeared news on the progress of negotiations.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting published during the day statistics, most of which, however, traders left unattended. During the European trading session in Germany was released leading index of consumer climate for July. The index fell to the level of 10.1 from the level of 10.2 in June, as expected.

Later in the United States was released the data on unemployment claims. For the reporting week the number of applications has increased by 3000, which coincided with the forecast. The number of counting claims has increased, while analysts had expected a decline. The core PCE price index also came in line with forecasts, and changes in the level of personal spending was slightly better than expected (0.9% vs. 0.7%). The level of personal incoms of Americans has risen in May by 0.5% against the expected 0.6%.

 

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USD / JPY. Thinking about Causes and Effects

Launched breakthrough of the "triangle" upper border went nowhere - market players continue to be cautious, and they really have reasons for it. It so happened that not only and not so much Greeks are interested in the situation in their country, as investors around the world who are used to keep money in a quiet location on the occurrence of such severe cases like this. The yen, together with gold and all sorts of "risk-free" government bonds (we think that there are no such bonds, but so they say) has traditionally been used as one of these safe-havens. So, we wait... Recall that tonight was published the inflation data for Japan (perhaps this is the key data regards the country in recent years) - value was above expectations. What does it mean? Most likely, that the fight against deflation give some results, which means it is unlikely that the Bank of Japan in the near future will think about the expansion of the asset repurchase program, which has driven the yen on thirteen-year lows. And it seems that this is not what Japanese officials want.

We do not recommend to enter the market today, waiting for fundamental changes.

Volatility 61%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

GBP / USD. Market Players Sat on Fence

The British seems to have found some support near the support line and the 38.2% Fibo level of the upward momentum in June. Today, we do not expect any important publications, which means that the trend will continue rather than change its direction.
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Anyway, it is advisable to be careful when trying to buy from current levels - in any case the protective stop should be placed close.

Volatility: 65%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate

 

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Oil Market Is still Calm

On Friday, oil contracts are traded in a narrow range as investors' views are still facing to the negotiations on Greece. Vista Brokers analysts note that quotes are about the same level for quite a long time, so that sooner or later this calm will surely turn into the storm. It is not clear just – where it will be directed.

Today during the Asian session August futures for Brent have risen by 19 cents to $ 63.39 per barrel, ending the previous session lower by 29 cents. WTI futures for August delivery have fallen by 6 cents today to $ 59.64 per barrel, while on Thursday the contract ended the day lower by 57 cents.

Experts believe that the assumption of the imminent change in the dynamics of the oil market can be drawn from the technical picture, which is now formed on the market. Since the beginning of the year Brent quotes are in a classic upward channel, borders of which the price will leave sooner or later and as a result it can be formed a strong movement, downward or upward.

From a fundamental point of view quotes must get a driver to leave the channel, for example, a decision on Iran's nuclear program. This question is recently a bit faded into the background – everybody is watching on Greece. But the question on Iran, in theory, should be definitively settled next week. Most likely, sanctions will be lifted from the country, and over the next month Tehran would increase exports, which can lead to a decrease in oil prices. Another scenario is also still possible - sanctions may remain in force, and it will support quots.

Do not forget about the correlation of oil with the US dollar, a position of which in the international currency market have an impact on all instruments, measured in dollars. Not far off is September, when many market players expect the first Fed rate hike, which will certainly have an impact on the dollar and, as a consequence, on the oil market.

 

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Vista Brokers: Rising Dollar Pressures Gold

During the Friday's European trading session, gold has fallen in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the precious metals market was under pressure after Thursday's strong statistics from the US has supported the dollar. Experts also remind us that the picture of the market can change dramatically at any time, as players are closely watching negotiations on Greece.

Today on Comex gold futures for August delivery have plunged by 0.12% to $ 1,170.50 per troy ounce. A day earlier, these futures had ended the day at $ 1,171.80 (-0.09%).

Recall that the dollar has received support in the currency market after the release of information that the personal income in the US has grown by 0.5% in May (coincided with the forecast), and the level of spending – by 0.9% (the forecast was 0.7%).

As for the other traded metals, silver futures for July delivery have tumbled today by 1.25% to $ 15,610 per ounce, while copper for July contract have increased by 0.51% to $ 2.637 per pound.

 

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

A market fluctuations amplitude continues to decline, but this is not a reason to relax, because at any time we may reach some data (for example, regards Greece), which will force market participants to activate sharply. In the meantime, we have the conditional stop-order at 1178.07 - the current value of the red Alligator line.

Volatility: 28%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate


Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

After the nearest fractal down level crossing the pending order to sale from 123.28 has activated. Thus, the decline does not have the continuation yet, and we have no additional signals. Anyway, we are prepared to act, because the current price is close to Alligator's teeth, so the position may be closed soon.

Volatility: 60%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate


Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

The EUR/USD market remains calm. The position to sale is still relevant, despite of the red Alligator's line closure, closing above which would be a signal to leave the market. During the last 24 hours there was no additional signals.

Volatility: 38%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate


Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

We have fixed a result on the short position from 1.5803 with a small profit at 1.5742. The range of fluctuations is currently limited with levels of the nearest fractals (where we have our breakthrough orders). The distance between them is near a figure, and it is not too much, due to the last months increased volatility level.

Volatility: 66%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate

 

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 06/29

Week starting in the foreign exchange market will not be too busy. In the euro zone, Germany and Spain will be published preliminary index of consumer prices for June, and later in the US will be released the data on pending home sales. The market is still focused on the situation in Greece, which has not been able to negotiate with creditors on the weekend, therefore, it will likely continue to ignore the publication.

7:00 ** Preliminary Consumer Price Index - June (Spain)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Inflation is one of the key indicators in Forex, because usually the monetary policy mostly depends on it. In June, it is expected that the consumer price index has declined by 0.1%.

8:30 ** Net Lending to Individuals - May (UK)
8:30 ** Mortgage Approvals - May (UK)
9:30 ** MPC Member Martin Weale Speaks - May (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Analysts expect fairly good data on these indicators. Acceleration of the net loans dynamics reflects the improvement in lending, and promises the consumer spending growth. The number of approved applications for a mortgage loans is an interest, since it not only informs about the "health" of the housing market, but also about the situation in relation to lending activity.

12:00 *** Preliminary Consumer Prices Index - June (Germany)
12:00 *** Preliminary Harmonized Consumer Prices Index - June (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Inflation is one of the key indicators in Forex, because usually the monetary policy mostly depends on it. In June, it is expected that the consumer price index has increased by 0.1%.

14:00 ** Pending Home Sales - May (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changing in the volume of outstanding transactions with real estate. It is an early indicator of the activity of the US housing market.