Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)


Windsor Brokers Representative

The Euro started the week with gap-lower opening, as expected, according to the results of Greek elections, which increase pressure on the single currency, already weakened by recent SNB and ECB decisions. Lower opening of some 70-pips gap and fresh weakness below last Friday’s low, posted new low at 1.1096, on a brief probe below 1.11 handle. This was all seen so far, with fresh corrective action under way, on attempts above overnight’s high to fill the gap and signal stronger corrective action, ahead of fresh push lower. Overall picture holds strong bearish, confirmed by daily / weekly close in red, with last week’s descend, marking the strongest weekly fall since Sep 2010, also losses of the month of January are so far the strongest since May 2012. All these suggest that Euro’s fall is not over, as the price closed for the week below Fibonacci 61.8% of larger 2000/2008 0.8225/1.6039 ascend, seeing scope for attack at psychological 1.10 level, as initial target. Bounce on oversold near-term studies is so far seen as corrective, with initial requirement of sustained break above 1.1200 barrier, to open lower top at 1.1287, ahead of more significant hourly lower platform at 1.1372, last Friday’s high / near 50% of 1.1679/1.1096 downleg. Key near-term barrier lies at 1.1660/80 Zone, lower platform of 19/21 Jan and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2568/1.1096 and only break here would neutralize bears.

Res: 1.1245; 1.1287; 1.1318; 1.1372
Sup: 1.1150; 1.1096; 1.1050; 1.1000



Cable bounces from fresh low at 1.4950, posted on attempt below psychological 1.50 support, below which, last Friday’s close occurred. This gives signals of further bearish action towards initial target at 1.4910, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3501/1.7189 and more significant 1.4830/12 higher base and lows of 2013. Hesitation at 1.50 handle, above which near-term corrective bounce is trading, is expected to precede fresh leg lower, with 1.5050, previous low / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5210/1.4950, marking good barrier and 1.5110, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, expected to ideally cap. Only break and close above 1.52 lower top and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5618/1.4950, would sideline near-term bears and open pivotal 1.5267 barrier, high of 14 Jan and former recovery attempts peak.

Res: 1.5050; 1.5080; 1.5110; 1.5150
Sup: 1.4983; 1.4950; 1.4910; 1.4830



The pair continues to trade in a choppy mode, entrenched within 117.20 and 118.85 range, with daily 20SMA / cloud, continuing to limit upside attempts. Last Friday’s close in red shows that the pair lacks strength for final push higher, however, mixed near-term and daily studies favor directionless mode in next few sessions, before establishing fresh direction. Sustained break above 118.85 is expected to accelerate rally towards next barriers at 120.00 and 120.80 in extension. Otherwise, loss of near-term range floor at 117.20, would increase risk of retesting 115.83, 16 Jan low and extension towards key short-term support at 115.55, low of 16 Dec 2014 and Fibonacci 38.2% of 105.18/121.83 rally.

Res: 118.32; 118.85; 119.30; 119.57
Sup: 117.82; 117.25; 116.90; 116.31


The pair remains under pressure and posts fresh low at 0.7856, after last Friday’s acceleration lower closed below psychological 0.80 support, as well as 0.7945, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 0.6007/1.1079 ascend. Also, long red weekly candle, with weekly loss of that intensity, last time seen in Sep 2014, confirms negative stance for further retracement. Low of July 2009 at 0.7700 is seen as next near-term target, below which there will be no significant obstacles, until 0.7200, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement. Doji in Asian session and price action limited under session’s high, would signal limited upside, ahead of fresh attempts lower. Psychological 0.8000 resistance, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8232/0.7856 descend and former lows at 0.8031, mark solid barrier and should ideally cap corrective attempts.
Res: 0.7945; 0.8000; 0.8031; 0.8088
Sup: 0.7856; 0.7800; 0.7750; 0.7700