2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

[SOLID ECN LLC]

EURGBP

Euro kicked off March on a strong note as fresh preliminary inflation data from France and Spain showed price pressures accelerated last month. Also inflation in North-Rhine Westphalia, the most densely populated part of Germany, also increased. Markets price in ECB to lift rates by another 50bps in March, while the peak rate for the deposit facility is projected to reach 4% in February of 2024, above the 3.9% seen in late February.

On the other hand, the British pound is one of the worst performing G10 currencies today as fresh comments from BoE Governor Bailey overshadowed optimism over Britain's agreement with the EU on post-Brexit trade regarding Northern Ireland. Bailey said further rate hikes may be appropriate but nothing is decided as inflation has been slightly weaker, and activity and wages slightly stronger. It seems that his indecisiveness was perceived well by the markets.

EUR and NZD are the best performing major currencies while GBP and USD lag the most.

EURGBP rose sharply at the beginning of today's session, however buyers struggle to reach major resistance at 0.8875, which is marked with previous price reactions and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave launched in December 2022. As long as price sits below, pullback towards local support at 0.8815. cannot be ruled out.​

 

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EURCHF

The EURCHF pair took advantage of the stability of the additional support at 0.9860 to push it above the EMA50, achieving clear gains by reaching 1.0032, these factors confirm surrendering to the domination of the bullish bias, noting that stochastic positive momentum signals will assist to resume the bullish rally, to expect targeting 1.0080 followed by pressing on the additional barrier at 1.0145 as a next target for the bullish bias.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9975 and 1.0080.​

 

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AUDUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6645 – 0.6524. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6917.

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NZDUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6008 – 0.5890. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6388.

 

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Gold

Gold price tests the key support 1828.7, and as we mentioned this morning, this level represents one of the trend keys besides 1840 resistance, as the price needs to surpass one of these levels to detect its next destination clearly.

Therefore, our neutrality will remain valid until now, while the details of the expected targets after the breach are explained in our morning report.​

 

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair show more bearish bias to settle below 1.0650 again, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend for the rest of the day, waiting to break 1.0625 to reinforce the expectations of continuing the bearish bias, motivated by the negative overlapping signal provided by stochastic now, reminding you that our main waited target is located at 1.0515, while achieving it requires holding below 1.0650.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0560 support and 1.0720 resistance.​

 

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Oil​

Crude oil price breached 77.40 level clearly to trade at 78.00 barrier now, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend for the rest of the day, and the way is open to achieve our first target at 78.90, reminding you that breaching it will push the price to 80.40 as a next main target, while holding above 77.40 represents key condition to continue the expected rise, which gets good positive support by the EMA50.

The expected trading range for today is between 76.20 support and 79.40 resistance.​

 

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GBPCHF​

The GBPCHF pair ended the correctional bullish rebound by providing new negative close below 1.1415 resistance, to notice crawling below the moving average 55 and consolidate near 1.1255, also, stochastic begins to provide the negative momentum to increase the efficiency of the bearish track, to keep waiting to touch the negative stations near 1.1180 followed by reaching the additional support at 1.1100.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1310 and 1.1180.​

 

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EURJPY​

The EURJPY pair postponed the bullish rally, affected by 145.25 level forming an obstacle against the bullish attempts, to notice providing weak sideways fluctuation by consolidating near 144.80.

We remind you that the bullish scenario will remain valid as long as 144.00 forms additional support line, and stochastic attempt to crawl towards the overbought areas, allowing us to wait to surpass the current obstacle and manage to reach the next main target at 146.50.​

 

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USDCAD​

The USDCAD pair continues to decline to break 1.3600 level and settles below it, to head towards providing more negative trades on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.3500 level mainly.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that the expected decline is temporary, waiting to resume the bullish wave that its targets begin by testing 1.3680 level. On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.3630 will stop the suggested negative scenario for today and lead the price to recover again.​

 

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Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are on watch as potentially another collapse is brewing on the markets. Concerns are mounting over the financial condition of Silvergate Bank, a bank that specializes in cryptocurrency transactions. Silvergate warned in a filing on Wednesday that recent losses that the bank has experienced may leave it with less capital than it needs. Company also said that it failed to meet the deadline to submit its annual report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Reaction was quick with hedge funds, partners and investors pulling out from the Bank, leading to a collapse in its share price. Cryptocurrency companies, like for example Coinbase, stop accepting and initiating payments to or from Silvergate. However, some companies, like for example BitStamp, warned that they cannot be held responsible for any funds deposited at Silvergate accounts, signaling to clients that they decide to use Silvergate accounts at their own risk.

Whole situation is putting pressure on cryptocurrencies with major coins dropping 3-7% today. Taking a look at the BITCOIN chart at the D1 interval, we can see that the coin is testing a major support zone today. The $22,450 area is marked with previous price reactions as well as the lower limit of a local market geometry. A break below would, at least in theory, hint at a short-term trend reversal. In such a scenario, declines could deepen with sellers targeting the next support zone in-line - $21,200 area marked with previous price reactions and 100-period Exponential Moving Average (green line).​