2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

[SOLID ECN LLC]

XAUUSD - Growth is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow to the area of 1889.75 – 1960.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1802.05.

 

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USDJPY - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will grow to the area of 138.50 – 142.17. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 134.02.

 

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ETHEREUM

ETHEREUM price fell over 6.0% on Friday and broke below psychological support at $1600, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in June 2022. Currently buyers attempt to halt declines around local support at $1550, which is marked with previous price reactions. However, should break lower occur. sell-off may deepen towards recent lows at $1460.

 

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US100​

The Fed released its semi-annual monetary policy report today, and next week Powell will testify before Congress. His statement may provide some hints regarding future rate hike path and measures which may be taken during the March meeting. Highlights of the report:

Further hikes are needed​

• Financial conditions have tightened significantly since June​
• Service inflation excluding the housing sector remains elevated, further dynamics will depend on the labor market​
• Bringing inflation back to 2% likely requires period of below-trend growth, some softening of labor market conditions​
• Inflation abroad remains high, which has an impact on domestic prices​
• The labor market will remain strong for now​

Today's report did not cause any major market moves, as next week's Powell semiannual testimonies is much more important. EURUSD rebounded slightly and the US100 remains at session highs.​

 

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EURUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.0500 – 1.0325. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0695.

 

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GBPUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.1650 – 1.1420. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2285.

 

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AUDUSD

The AUDUSD pair continues to crawl positively to trade near the key resistance 0.6780, noticing that stochastic lost its positive momentum to start providing negative signals now, waiting to motivate the price to rebound bearishly and resume the correctional bearish track, which targets 0.6665 as a next station.

The EMA50 continues to press negatively on the price to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend, being aware that breaching 0.6780 will complete forming positive pattern that has the ability to push the price to turn to rise and head to visit 0.6925 areas initially.​

 

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EURJPY​

The EURJPY pair failed to surpass 145.25 barrier, to force it to postpone the bullish attack and form correctional bearish rebound to touch the additional support at 144.

We expect to form mixed sideways trades between the mentioned levels, to recommend neutrality and monitoring the price behavior until surpassing one of these levels to manage to detect the next trend, noting that breaking the support will activate the correctional bearish track that might target 143.25 and 142.60 levels.​

 

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GBPJPY

The GBPJPY pair provided more negative closings below the key resistance 165.10, forming some negative waves to settle near 163.25, confirming its surrender to the previously suggested bearish bias domination.

Now, stochastic approach to 20 level allows us to keep the negative overview, to expect forming new negative waves and move towards the negative target at 162.25, while breaking to might extend losses towards 161.40 direct.​

 

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EURUSD

ECB's Holzmann calls for 50 BPS hikes at the next 4 meetings. In addition he would like the PEPP program to be included in the balance sheet reduction, whose maturing instruments are reinvested for the time being. In his opinion, PEPP should be "pulled" into QT in autumn. These comments are very hawkish, however Holzmann belongs to the extreme group of "ultrahawks" at the ECB.

EURUSD tried to rebound slightly after Holzmann's comments.​