2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

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AUDUSD​

The AUDUSD pair broke 0.6665 level strongly to rally bearishly and approach the second waited target at 0.6550, moving within the bearish channel that supports the chances of surpassing the mentioned level and open the way to achieve more bearish correction, to head towards 0.6400 areas as a next main station.

The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bearish wave, waiting to get negative momentum that assists to achieve the required break and head towards the expected target. On the other hand, we should note that breaching 0.6665 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to start recovery attempts that target testing 0.6780 areas initially.​

 

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Bitcoin

BITCOIN deepened declines yesterday after Silvergate Capital announced liquidation of Silvergate Bank. The coin is making another test of the $21,500 support zone.

 

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair didn’t show any strong move yesterday, to settle near 1.0515, noticing that stochastic begins to lose the positive momentum gradually, while the EMA50 forms negative pressure against the price.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, and the targets begin by breaking the mentioned level to confirm heading towards 1.0440 as a next negative station, noting that breaching 1.0635 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to turn to rise.​

 

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GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair fluctuates around 1.0840 level since yesterday, and continues to move within the correctional bearish channel, waiting to resume the bearish bias that its next main target located at 1.1625, supported by stochastic loss to the positive momentum clearly.

By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming double top pattern that hast negative targets that surpass the above mentioned level to reach 1.1370 areas, to suggest the domination of the bearish trend on the longer term basis. Therefore, we are waiting for more decline in the upcoming sessions, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, reminding you that it is important to hold below 1.1940 to achieve the waited targets.

 

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Economic Calendar ​

• European indices launch session flat​
• Jobless claims and US natural gas storage report​
• Market odds for 50 bp FOMC rate hike in March drop​

European stock market indices launched today's cash trading session little changed compared to yesterday' closing levels. This comes after a mixed trading on Wall Street yesterday and in Asia today. Powell said during the second of his congressional semiannual hearings that while inflation is dropping, it will stay elevated for some time and recent policy moves are yet to impact real economy. Those comments made market odds for a 50 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting drop.

Economic calendar for the day ahead is light, allowing investors to catch a breath after Powell and before the NFP report. Weekly jobless claims data and EIA natural gas storage report are the only noteworthy readings scheduled for today. While jobless claims data is unlikely to trigger any major moves, EIA report may trigger some NATGAS volatility. Speeches from central bankers may offer some FX volatility in the afternoon.

1:30 pm GMT - US, jobless claims. Expected: 195k. Previous: 190k
3:30 pm GMT - EIA report on US natural gas storage. Expected: -76 bcf. Previous: -81 bcf

Central bankers' speeches​

• 1:15 pm GMT - BoE Breeden​
• 3:00 pm GMT - Fed Barr​
• 2:00 pm GMT - NBP Chairman Glapiński​
• 6:45 pm GMT - BoC Rogers​

 

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EURJPY

The EURJPY pair didn’t succeed to exit the sideways range until this moment, to keep fluctuating between 145.5 resistance and 144 support.

The above chart shows that stochastic begins to provide the negative momentum, to increase the chances of forming new negative waves, and expect to crawl below the current support to reach many negative stations that might start at 143.25 followed by 142.2, to press on the moving average 55.​

 

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DE30

he German leading index is facing an important decision.

W1 chart

The DAX / DE30 reached a new high for the year this week at 15,718 points. However, the break above resistance at 15,698 points was not sustainable. The index was set back slightly, so that it currently has a small weekly loss.

D1 chart

Today's setback was seen as a buying opportunity - this is shown by the lower shadow. The recovery attempt is not yet convincing. However, the DAX / DE30 can hold at a high level, so that a second test of the above-mentioned hurdle is possible.

 

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NATGAS

The US Energy Information Administration reported today that domestic supplies of natural gas decreased by-84 billion cubic feet for the week ended February 24 from -81 bcf in the previous week, while analysts’ expected drop of -80 billion cubic feet.

Still, it is much less than a decrease of 126 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 101 bcf as mild weather kept heating demand for the fuel low. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 2.030 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 493 bcf higher than last year at this time and 359 bcf above the five-year average of 1.671 tcf.​

 

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USDCHF

The USDCHF pair traded with clear negativity yesterday, and ended trades near 0.9316, noticing that the price begins today with additional negativity to attack this level and attempt to confirm breaking it, which makes us prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend, through monitoring the price behavior according to the mentioned level.

Note that confirming breaking the mentioned support will press on the price to achieve more decline and return to the main bearish track, to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 0.9220 and extend to 0.9135, while consolidating above it will lead the price to resume the correctional bullish track that its next main target located at 0.9475.​

 

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EURUSD​

The EURUSD pair begins today with additional positivity to surpass 1.0645 level and settles above it, which pushes the price to achieve more intraday gains, targeting testing 1.0745 as a next station, noting that breaching this level will push the price to continue rising and head towards 1.0800 followed by 1.0925 levels as next main targets.

Moving above the EMA50 supports the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some temporary sideways fluctuation before resuming the bullish bias. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0645 and holding below it will stop the suggested bullish wave and press on the price to decline again.​