Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Aims Fresh Increase While EUR/JPY Eyes More Upsides

EUR/USD is consolidating above the key 1.0880 support zone. EUR/JPY is rising and might rally further if it clears the 145.40 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.0970 zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0910 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
• EUR/JPY started a steady increase after it found support near 142.50.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 144.20 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD, the Euro remained well-bid above the 1.0880 zone and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. EUR/USD was able to break above the 1.0920 resistance level.

The pair tested the 1.0970 zone before it started a correction. There was a break below the 1.0920 level, but the bulls were active near the key 1.0880 support. A low is formed at 1.0876, and the pair is now consolidating.

Immediate resistance is near the 1.0910 level. Besides, there is a key bearish trendline forming with resistance near 1.0910. The trendline is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0937 swing high to the 1.0876 low.

The next major resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level at 1.0925. A clear move above the 1.0925 level might send the pair toward the 1.0970 level. Any more gains could set the pace for a test of 1.1000.

On the downside, the pair might find support near the 1.0880 level. The next major support sits near the 1.0820 level, below which the pair could even test the 1.0790 support zone.

If there is a downside break below the 1.0790 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming days. In the stated case, it could even test 1.0720.

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Tech stocks are back in vogue as a sudden rally grabs the attention

For almost two years, there has been tremendous volatility within stocks of technology companies – mostly those with headquarters in Silicon Valley – which are listed on the NASDAQ exchange in New York and included in the S&P 500 index, which tracks the performance of America’s best performing 500 publicly listed companies.

Since 2021, technology stocks have been suffering, and during the course of last year, a consistent downturn in value was recorded, much to the surprise of many, who considered internet-based e-commerce giants and online firms to have been relatively resilient to the effects of the lockdowns which took place across many Western countries during 2020 and 2021 as the world went online.

Perhaps it would have been more likely that stocks in traditional companies which produce physical products or require quantities of raw materials delivered to factories in order to manufacture which was greatly restricted during those times, and workforces that were not allowed into workplaces in order to produce and deliver items to paying customers or outlets would have suffered more.

Yes, Amazon and Google rocketed in value during the early to the middle part of 2020 while airline and hospitality firms listed on more traditional European exchanges such as London Stock Exchange fell, but that was short-lived.

The tech stock downturn that took place last year was surprising and long-lasting.

Now, however, things are back on track, and there appears to have been something of a rally.

Over the past 30 days, the S&P 500 index has risen from 3,861 to 4,090, with NASDAQ-listed tech stocks contributing to that in droves.

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USDJPY: Are Bulls Trying to Revive the Long-Term Trend?

The USDJPY yesterday reached its highs of several weeks.

This was facilitated by:

→ a statement by the new head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, who made it clear that there is no need to rush to curtail the stimulus policy;

→ Friday's US employment report, which strengthened expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike in May. Unemployment fell to 3.5%, indicating the strength of the labour market. Trading on Tuesday, futures on the dollar index opened with a bullish gap;

→ US commercial bank deposits rose towards the end of March for the first time in about a month, a sign that the banking crisis is easing and the dollar is regaining confidence.

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[FXOpen Trader]

BTCUSD Technical Analysis – 11th APR 2023

Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum from last week, and after touching a low of $27,717 on April 6, we can see a bull run, which managed to push the prices of BTCUSD above the $30,000 handle today in the early European trading session.

The resistance of the channel is broken in the daily timeframe, indicating the strength of the bulls.

We can clearly see a hammer pattern above the $27,717 handle.

Bitcoin continues to move in a range-bound motion between the $29,800 and $30,200 levels, which is indicative of a consolidation phase in the markets.

Both the STOCH and Williams Percent Range indicate overbought levels, which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the price is expected.

The relative strength index is at 74.02, indicating a strong demand for Bitcoin and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100-hour simple moving average and above its 200-hour exponential moving average.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a bullish signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of $31,000 and $32,500.

The average true range indicates low market volatility with strong bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin bullish continuation is seen above $27,717.
• The RSI remains above 50, indicating a bullish market.
• The price is now trading above its pivot level of $30,088.
• The short-term range is strongly bullish.
• Some major technical indicators signal that the price may move to $30,500 and $31,000 soon.

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[FXOpen Trader]

XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 11th APR 2023

Last week, the market sentiment turned bullish after Ripple touched a low of $0.4915 on April 6 and started to correct. The market opened bullish this week.

On the hourly chart:

The relative strength index is at 60.40, which signifies a strong demand for Ripple at the current market prices and the continuation of the bullish phase in the market.
Moving averages signal an upward price movement at the current market level of 0.5203.
Both the STOCH and CCI are in the neutral zones, which means the price is now resting in the consolidation zone.
Ripple is now trading just below its pivot level of 0.5209 and is now facing its classic resistance at 0.5221 and Fibonacci resistance at 0.5241, after which it will be able to move towards 0.6000.

Some of the major technical indicators are bullish.

• Ripple bullish reversal is seen above 0.4915.
• The price is below its pivot level.
• Average true range indicates HIGH volatility.

We have also detected a bullish price crossover with 20 and 50-period moving averages in the weekly timeframe.

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[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Starts Fresh Increase While EUR/GBP Eyes Upside Break

GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2400 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is struggling and facing resistance near 0.8790.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound started a fresh increase above the 1.2400 barrier against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trendline with resistance near 1.2410 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP is struggling to break the 0.8790 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trendline forming with support near 0.8770 on the EUR/GBP hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound saw a downside correction below the 1.2400 support against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair tested the 1.2345 zone before the bulls took a stand.

On the hourly chart at FXOpen, a low was formed near 1.2344, and the pair started a fresh increase. There was a clear move above the 1.2400 resistance zone. More importantly, there was a break above a key bearish trendline with resistance near 1.2410.

The pair traded at 1.2456 and settled above the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a minor downside correction below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2027 swing low to the 1.2205 high.

However, the pair remained well-bid above the 50% Fib retracement level at 1.2400.

If there is a downside break below the 1.2400 support, there is a risk of a sharp decline. In the stated case, GBP/USD may revisit the 1.2355 support. Any more losses could lead the pair toward 1.2300.

On the upside, resistance is near the 1.2355 level, above which the pair might resume its increase (considering the RSI is above 50). The next major resistance is near the 1.2520 level. A clear move above 1.2520 could trigger a rally toward 1.2600.

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[FXOpen Trader]

British Pound remarkably remains the best performing G10 currency in 2023

The end of last year was a very depressing time for those whose everyday currency is the British Pound.

During the last few months of 2022, the world’s most valuable currency slid and slid in value, causing analysts and investors alike to begin to turn their back on the Pound as the economy in Britain continued to suffer from double-figure inflation and other holdbacks such as the effect of Brexit and the legacy of the lockdowns which took place in 2020 and 2021, whereas the American economy continued to recover from its high inflation, with the US Dollar performing well throughout last year and inflation down to just over 6% by December.

Nowadays, things are somewhat different.

Whilst the United States economy continues to remain steady, and inflation is now under control to the extent that the Federal Reserve has begun to discuss the possibility of not making any further increases to interest rates for the foreseeable future after a long period of rate hikes, the British economy remains dogged by Brexit-related trade issues, double-figure inflation and a now two-year-long cost of living crisis.

Despite these having been among the same factors which caused the Pound to depreciate so much over a long period last year, there is some interesting and perhaps surprising data surrounding the British Pound this week, in that it is the best performing G10 currency of 2023.

It’s almost as if absolutely nothing has changed with regard to the challenges faced by the British public and the national economy, yet the sovereign currency has experienced a turnaround in its directionб representing a total change in fortune.

Whilst more than a degree of caution is being exercised by analysts within the financial markets industry with regard to the Pound, it has risen by a healthy 3% against the US Dollar since the beginning of 2023.

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On the Nature Of Breakdown of the Psychological $30K Level

On Tuesday, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $30,000 per coin for the first time since June 2022. The news has become a trend in the media and social networks, community members express opinions that in the future the price of BTC will reach $50,000 and 100,000. How optimistic is the $30,000 breakout?


Judging by its nature (1), buyers are unsure as the length of the candles decreases while the price rises above the psychological level – quite unlike the more aggressive nature of the bullish breakout (2) of the $25k level.

In this regard, the role of resistance levels increases:

3→ is built on the height of the range $26,800-29,000;

4→ is built as the border of the ascending channel.

By the ability to stay on the achieved heights against the backdrop of today's session full of important news, it will be possible to judge the true strength of the bulls.

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EURHUF: Central European currencies gaining interest

For those who have travelled to some of the former Eastern Bloc nations within Central and Eastern Europe, many will have noticed a key difference between these fully functioning free market economies and their neighbours within the European Union: Abstinence from adopting the Euro.

Whilst nations such as Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Bulgaria have been members of the European Union since the 2000s, none of them have adopted a single currency and have instead maintained their own national sovereign currencies.

In recent years, nations such as Hungary have been regarded as home to economies which are relatively small and in which the national currency is of low value compared to majors such as the Euro, which dominates in business across the continent and when transacting with other continental trading partners such as North America or Japan.

For sure, Hungarian export and import data within the European Parliament will be worked out in Euro, not in the local Forint, and the American and Japanese partners of European trade suppliers look at everything in Dollars and Euros, not Dollars, Euros and Forint.

However, the Forint has been making something of a headway recently.

Whilst the Euro and US Dollar have been relatively steady, and in the case of the Dollar, there has been a strong performance for a long time despite economic challenges and geopolitical woes across the Western world, the Hungarian Forint has been increasing in value quite dramatically.

Ever since October last year, the Forint has been gaining ground on the Euro. In October 2022, the Forint was valued at around 432 to the Euro, whereas today, it is trading at 375 to the Euro.

That is a remarkable movement, and one which is very rarely seen among majors unless there is a massive global disaster, which is even rarer, thankfully.

Looking at the Forint’s performance against the Euro over the past 5 days denotes another interesting pattern which is punctuated by volatility. Such levels of volatility are the lifeblood of the currency markets and have been lacking among majors for a long time.

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[FXOpen Trader]

USDCAD Is Approaching an Important Support Level

A short digest of the fresh and saturated news background:

→ Inflation in the US coincided with analysts' expectations. Core CPI was 5.6% in annual terms. The main problem for suppressing inflation is the rise in prices for energy resources (oil has updated the maximum of the year). According to Bloomberg, the union of Russia and Saudi Arabia in the oil market can create problems in this regard.

→ Minutes of the Fed meeting showed that officials expect a mild recession.

→ The ECB believes that inflation has become more extensive in Europe, but the lion's share of increases is already behind.

→ The Bank of Canada left the rate unchanged at 4.5%, expecting a fall in inflation, but is ready for further increases if necessary.

Reacting to the above and other important news, the US dollar index fell to the lows of the year on the foreign exchange market. Accordingly, the euro, pound and Canadian dollar strengthened. The latter forms a pattern that attracts attention.

On the USDCAD chart, we can observe a narrowing triangle (1-2), indicating the balance of supply and demand. The breakdown of the (3) triangle in March turned out to be false. By its behaviour, the market suggests that the true exit from the triangle will take place in a bearish direction. And this could be the beginning of a long-term downtrend.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.