Daily technical & fundamental analysis for multi-forex pairs

[luckyanand12]

Analysis of EUR/USD & USD/JPY after NFP by Keon Consultancy
Following our plan of trading Non-farm Payroll, we entered buy in EUR/USD and sell in USD/JPY. We skipped trading AUD having seen its weakness. We waited till opening of US stock market today for more confirmation by price action because positive US NFP had conflicted with negative US Unemployment Rate. Then we entered our positions. Screenshots posted below shows our exit, entry points and technical analysis.



USD/JPY:
View attachment 50665


EUR/USD:
View attachment 50666

Target of sell of EUR/USD was hit.

Similar upward retracement to upside in EUR/USD is still expected from the latest low, so holding on to buy with one more buy position.

 

[luckyanand12]

AUD/USD analysis
AUD/USD is more likely to retrace at least 30% of whole move down after completing target of H & S (Head & Shoulder). Here is how we entered:

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/CAD analysis | Feb 7, 2020

Having seen conflict between US NFP & US Unemployment rate today and positive Employment Change as well as better Unemployment Rate from Canada, we entered sell in USD/CAD. Here is what we see as per technical analysis. The screenshot displays entry and exit points too:
View attachment 50667

Trade Closed, target reached.

 

[luckyanand12]

AUD/USD analysis
AUD/USD is more likely to retrace at least 30% of whole move down after completing target of H & S (Head & Shoulder). Here is how we entered:
View attachment 50802

Moved SL to BE.

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/CAD analysis | Feb 12, 2020

BOC Governor Poloz is gonna speak at 7 p.m. EST (New York time) today. Volatility during his speech may cause market to hit sell limit. Here is how we are gonna trade USD/CAD:

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/CAD analysis | Feb 12, 2020

BOC Governor Poloz is gonna speak at 7 p.m. EST (New York time) today. Volatility during his speech may cause market to hit sell limit. Here is how we are gonna trade USD/CAD:
View attachment 50804

Sell limit activated @1.3263 due to volatility ahead of BOC Governor Poloz's speech.

 

[luckyanand12]

AUD/USD analysis
AUD/USD is more likely to retrace at least 30% of whole move down after completing target of H & S (Head & Shoulder). Here is how we entered:
View attachment 50802

Closed at BE.

 

[luckyanand12]

Buy AUD/USD | Feb 13, 2020

The thrust with 7 bearish candles below 3-3 SMA makes a ground for trading Joe Dinapoli's directional patterns. AUD/USD closed above 3-3 SMA, then closed below it making a new low and then closed back above it again; which made a Double Repo pattern. In addition to this pattern, we have MACD/trend predictor that shows that the trend had already shifted bullish.
Classical target of Double Repo is 50% of total move down since beginning of thrust. But we are taking smaller target that is 30% of whole move down.

Risk: The setup will fail if D1/daily candle will close below 3-3 SMA again.

 

[luckyanand12]

Sell GBP | Feb 14, 2020

We were already bullish on JPY (bearish on USD/JPY) as per our previous analysis of JPY. US CPI yesterday and US retail sales today didn't give any positive surprise, which is causing correction against gains of USD; so JPY is gaining.


You can see in last few analyses of GBP that we have recently been trading GBP as per Range Trading Style. Having seen the scenario for JPY as mentioned above, we deiced to sell GBP against JPY. Here is what we see technically and how we entered sell in GBP/JPY:

 

[luckyanand12]

Buy AUD/USD | Range trading

AUD/USD has been stuck in small range after sharp fall. Its oversold condition requires a correction. If it doesn't correct by a significant upward retracement, it can stagnate in range for many days to correct its oversold condition.
Having seen improvement in economic data from Australia since December, Wage Price Index q/q on Wed and Employment change on Thu are more likely to be in line with forecast or better; which may cause enough upward move to touch at least upper band of Bollinger. Therefore, we have entered one more buy trade and holding onto both of them despite previous setup of look alike Double Repo seems to be off the table; nevertheless we should see today's closing to determine whether or not previous setup gets invalidated.


Here is how we have entered today and modified our positions:

Bullish divergence: Price has recently been making lower lows but MACD has been making higher lows, which makes a Bullish Divergence. If MACD makes a lower low before the price touches upper band of Bollinger (our TP); setup will eventually fail, the last hope for bulls will be dead and we will no longer be in long/buy in AUD even for a short term trade.