Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD, GBPUSD: bearish price action above critical support

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD completed the bullish wave C (blue) but the support trend lines (green) need to break before the waves Y of wave 4 (blue) can be considered completed. Until the trend lines break, the current bearish price action could still be a bearish retracement for an uptrend continuation.

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to have completed a bearish wave 5 (blue) of wave A (purple). For the moment a bearish ABC zigzag (purple) seems the most logical path of least resistance for price. The wave count could turn into a 123 if price breaks below support.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke the inner support trend line (dotted green) but has an outer and shallower support trend line remaining (solid green). A break of that support trend line would confirm the downtrend on the GBP/USD whereas a bounce at support could indicate an expansion of the uptrend.

1 hour



The GBP/USD completed a 5th wave (green) within wave A (pink). For the moment a wave B (pink) correction seems the most likely scenario unless price break below the channel.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is showing a strong bullish bounce after breaking a resistance trend line (dotted red). The bullish price action could be a first signal that the US Dollar can make a decent rally.

1 hour



The USD/JPY has respected the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave B (purple). A break above the resistance trend line (red) could see the continuation of wave C. A break below support (blue) could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels of B vs A or break the bottom and extend the downtrend.



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[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD continues bearish momentum and confirms 5 wave decline

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke another support trend line (dotted green) yesterday and the bearish decline is picking up speed. One more important line remains unbroken (solid green), which could mark the difference between a retracement (for more upside) or reversal (for more downside).

1 hour



The EUR/USD extended the bearish 5th wave (green) yesterday after breaking the support (dotted greens). The extension seems to be unfolding in 5 waves (orange). The ABC (blue) could turn into 123 if price can prove that a reversal is taking place.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD's decline has expanded with more bearishness. A break of that support trend line would confirm the downtrend on the GBP/USD whereas a bounce at support could indicate an expansion of the uptrend.

1 hour



The GBP/USD showed a choppy trading day yesterday, which has been marked as an ABC (blue) within wave B (green). A bullish break above the resistance trend line (red) could see price develop towards the Fibonacci levels of wave B (pink). A bearish break below the support trend lines (green) could price expand wave A (pink) lower.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is building a triangle chart pattern below the broken bottom (orange). A bullish break of the triangle could indicate a trend change whereas a bearish break of the triangle could see a downtrend continuation unfold.

1 hour



The USD/JPY has gone sideways yesterday as indicated by the support (blue) and resistance (red) trend lines. A break above the resistance trend line (red) could see the continuation of wave C. A break below support (blue) could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels of B vs A. The other likely wave count is the start of an impulsive wave count via 123 (purple).



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[Admiral Markets]

Forex market builds remarkable zigzag and chart patterns

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD remains above the support trend line (solid green), which could mark the difference between a retracement (for more upside) or a reversal (for more downside). For the moment a bearish ABC (blue) pattern seems the most likely path of least resistance.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building a descending wedge chart pattern (orange/green). The EUR/USD break above resistance (orange) could indicate the end of the ABC (blue), although the Fibonacci levels of B vs A could still play a role. A break below support (green) could indicate the continuation of an ABC zigzag towards Fibonacci targets C vs A.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD's has respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave B vs A. A break of the support trend line would confirm the downtrend on the GBP/USD whereas a bounce at support could indicate the completion of the ABC (pink) and an expansion of the uptrend.

1 hour



The GBP/USD completed an ABC (blue) within wave B (pink). A bullish break above the resistance trend line (red) could indicate a completion of wave C (pink). A bearish break below the support trend lines (green) could price expand wave A (pink) lower.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is building an ascending wedge triangle chart pattern (red/blue). A bullish break of the triangle could indicate a trend change (from down trend to uptrend) whereas a bearish break of the triangle could see a downtrend continuation unfold.

1 hour



The USD/JPY attempted to break above the resistance trend line (red) but has failed several times. A successful attempt could see the continuation of wave C. The other likely wave count is the start of an impulsive wave count via 123 (purple).



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[jareer]

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[Admiral Markets]

Forex forecast: high probability of key trend line breaks

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is entrapped between support trend lines (green) and resistance (red). A bullish breakout could indicate a completion of the ABC (blue), whereas a bearish breakout could indicate a continuation of the C wave (blue). For the moment a bearish ABC (blue) pattern seems the most price development but it could turn out to be a 123 if price manages to extend itself below the 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



The EUR/USD price action has been choppy and price is going sideways. The trend lines capture the tops and bottoms of that sideways movement.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD's is respecting both the support (greens) and the resistance (reds/orange) trend lines. A break of the support trend line would confirm the downtrend on the GBP/USD whereas a bounce at support could indicate the completion of the ABC (pink) and an expansion of the uptrend.

1 hour



The GBP/USD respected the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1. A bullish break above the resistance trend lines (orange/red) could indicate a completion of wave C (pink). A bearish break below the support trend lines (green) could price expand wave A (pink) lower via a potential wave 3 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the resistance (dotted red) of the ascending triangle wedge chart pattern and price is moving higher towards the Fibonacci targets of wave C (pink).

1 hour



The USD/JPY could be building an alternative count where price is making a bullish impulsive 123 (purple) if price can extend at least past the 161.8% target. A break above the horizontal resistance (red) might be needed before a confirmation of a trend change is visible.



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[Admiral Markets]

Only USDJPY offers momentum while other currency pairs remain choppy

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is entrapped between support trend lines (green) and resistance (red). Price has reached a long-term support trend line (dark green), which is a bounce or break spot. A bullish breakout could indicate a completion of the ABC (blue), whereas a bearish breakout could indicate a continuation of the C wave (blue).

1 hour



The EUR/USD remains in a choppy trend channel. Price keeps respecting the support (green) and resistance (red) levels. A bearish breakout would most likely see price move towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 (green) and wave C (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has also reached a long-term key support trend line (green). A break of the support trend line would confirm the downtrend on the GBP/USD whereas a break of the 2 resistance trend lines (orange-red) could indicate the completion of the ABC (pink) and an expansion of the uptrend.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is still respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1. A bearish break below the support trend lines (green) could see price expand wave A (pink) lower via a potential wave 3 (green). A bullish break above resistance (red) invalidates 123 (green) and indicates a bullish breakout.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has reached the 161.8% Fibonacci target. A break above this target favors a wave 3 (purple) whereas a bearish turn makes a wave C (pink) more likely.

1 hour



Whether the USD/JPY will build a wave C (pink) or wave 3 (purple) depends on its price reaction at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (orange). Price should typically stop at the 38.2% Fibonacci level and not break below the support trend line (blue) if a wave 4 indeed unfolds.


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[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD's break of choppy channel appears at critical support

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend lines (dotted red), which makes it likely that a swing high and swing low was completed at the trend line. This swing has been marked as a wave A (blue) and a bigger ABC correction is expected unless a) the bullish momentum is very strong or b) the wave B correction takes more than 5 to 7 trading days.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the choppy trend channel and a smaller ABC zigzag within wave B (blue) seems likely.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is respecting a long-term key support trend line (green). A break of the support trend line would confirm the downtrend on the GBP/USD whereas a break of the 2 resistance trend lines (orange-red) could indicate the start of bigger correction within wave B (pink). The ABC could also turn out to be a 123 if price can break below the long-term trend support (dark green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD bullish break above resistance (red-orange) could expand the correction within wave B. For the moment price might use the Fibonacci levels of wave X (green) to enlarge the correction.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has made a bearish bounce at the 161.8% Fibonacci target. A break above this target favors a wave 3 (purple) whereas a bearish break below the support trend line (blue) makes a wave C (pink) more likely.

1 hour



The USD/JPY has stopped and turned at the 50% Fibonacci level. If price keeps its bullish momentum then a wave 4 (orange) seems likely.


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[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD, GBPUSD respect 38.2% Fibonacci level and build triangle

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke the internal resistance trend line (dotted orange) and made a move up to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave B (blue). Price is now challenging the long-term support trend line (green). A bearish break below support could the continuation of wave C (blue) or alternatively a wave 3. A bullish break above resistance (red) could price move towards the 50% Fib.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is in a contracting triangle. Whether the wave B (blue) is completed depends on whether price can break below the wave B vs A Fibonacci levels. A bounce at support could see price rally via an ABC (green) within wave B (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is respecting a long-term key support trend line (green). A break of the support trend line would confirm the downtrend on the GBP/USD whereas a break of the 2 resistance trend lines (orange-red) could indicate the start of bigger correction within wave B (pink). The ABC could also turn out to be a 123 if price can break below the long-term trend support (dark green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is in a contracting triangle and channel at the same time. A bullish break above resistance (red-orange) could expand the correction within wave B. For the moment price might use the Fibonacci levels of wave X (green) to enlarge the correction, just like it yesterday when the wave Y (green) bounced at the trend line towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY break above the 161.8% Fibonacci target favors a wave 3 (purple) whereas a bearish break below the support trend line (blue) makes a wave C (pink) more likely.

1 hour



The USD/JPY indeed bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level. Whether wave 5 has been completed depends if price breaks below the origin of wave 5 at 108.30 or whether there is a bullish break above resistance (orange).



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[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD, GBPUSD break of support lines verify ABC zigzags

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke below the long-term support trend line (green), which could be explained via a continuation of wave C (blue) or alternatively a wave 3 if price expands below the 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green) and made a bearish breakout. The bullish corrections have been weak so far which makes a wave 4 (orange) likely unless price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke one of the long-term support trend lines (dotted green) and confirms a downtrend continuation. The ABC could also turn out to be a 123 if price can break below the long-term trend support (dark green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is building a bear flag chart pattern (yellow-blue). A bullish break above resistance (red-orange) could change the wave count. A break below support (blue) should see price head towards the Fibonacci targets of wave C vs A.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY break above the 161.8% Fibonacci target favors a wave 3 (purple) whereas a bearish break below the support trend line (blue) makes a wave C (pink) more likely.

1 hour



The USD/JPY completed an ABC correction most likely within wave 4 (grey). A break above resistance (orange) could start a wave 5 (orange) whereas a break below support (blue) favors a bearish breakout and a wave 5 (orange) which was completed at the recent highs.



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[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD bear flag promises vivid trading day

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke below the long-term support trend line (green), which could be explained via a continuation of wave C (blue) or alternatively a wave 3 if price expands below the 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building a bear flag chart pattern (purple).A break below the flag could see price head towards the Fibonacci targets. A break above resistance could see price invalidate wave 4 (orange).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD rally has shown strong bullish momentum, which makes it unlikely that price is in a bearish wave C (pink). The wave B (pink) has therefore been put back on the chart and the Fibonacci levels are potential resistance levels.

1 hour



The GBP/USD was unable to break below the 127.2% Fibonacci level of X vs W. The break above resistance (orange dotted) trend line has seen price rally quickly. Now price is near resistance again and the Fibonacci levels are areas where price could struggle or turn.

USD/JPY

4 hour



A potential USD/JPY break above the 161.8% Fibonacci target favors a wave 3 (purple) whereas a bearish break below the support trend line (blue) makes a wave C (pink) more likely.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is moving sideways between support (blue) and resistance (orange). The indecision zone is marked by these trend lines and has become quite large in the meantime. A breakout with a strong 4 hour candle close is therefore preferred to avoid false breakouts. This means a bearish candle with a close near the low and a bullish candle with a close near the high.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”