Fibogroup Market Analysis 2020

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The catastrophe during the bidding in America did not happen - this morning almost a third of the losses were recovered. The increase in the number of people infected outside of China has slowed somewhat. And in China, there are more and more signs of a return to normal.

Weekly Calendar:

02.24.2020, Monday
#dayoff in Japan - the Emperor’s birthday
Day off in Russia on the occasion of the Defender of the Fatherland Day

02.25.2020, Tuesday
German #GDP for 4Q 2019

02.26.2020, Wednesday
Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde
US New Home Sales for January
US crude oil inventories

02.27.2020, Thursday
#US GDP 4Q 2019

02.28.2020, Friday
February #unemployment Germany
Canada GDP for December

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fibogroup.com

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GDP: Germany stagnates due to reduced exports

The total production in Germany in the fourth quarter of 2019 did not change, as exports fell. The German economy has always been export oriented. Fighting for trade concessions, in every possible way trying to slow down stagnation, the only thing that turned out for them was to play on numbers.

Nevertheless, behind the zero quarterly change are more obvious figures:

- investments in machinery and equipment decreased by 2% in the 4th quarter, this is even more than in the third (then there was also a decrease of 1.4%)

- consumer spending has not changed compared to the third quarter (an increase of 0.5%).
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We believe that German production is unlikely to recover in the first half of 2020. Failures due to a slowdown in the global economy and coronavirus will force the euro to sink to two-year lows (1.0350). The current growth must be used as an opportunity to complete transactions for sale.

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Stagnation in construction - another blow to AUD/USD

According to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the volume of completed construction projects, seasonally adjusted, in the fourth quarter fell by 3.0%. This value turned out to be worse than forecasts of economists, who expected a decrease of only 1.0%.
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How to understand this and what to expect:

- The construction boom in Australia has been around for 5 years. In fact, work done in both New South Wales and Victoria has increased by more than 40% from 2014 to 2019, peaking about 18 months ago, and is now falling by 15% from its highs. It is precisely this dynamics that we are observing - a cyclical weakening in the construction sector.

There will be no improvement in the near future, moreover, the current phase of the recession is also facing problems with the infrastructure destroyed by the fires and the effects of the coronavirus.

- The fall in housing in the December quarter means that housing investment will hinder economic growth. Tomorrow we will get another “GDP riddle” with data on business investment. With a probability of 90%, the data will show a weakening of investment in construction, which in theory should provoke another wave of sales on the #AUDUSD currency pair

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Bitcoin erases 38% of its growth in 2020

The first cryptocurrency falls on the third day, losses amounted to almost 9% per week. On Wednesday, a wave of sales covered other cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin Cash, Dash, EOS and Ether, each of which fell by more than 10%. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index has lost nearly 10%, the biggest drop since September.
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Arguments that the best-known digital token serves as a refuge during market shocks subsided this week as bitcoin fell amid intense interest in stock market sales. The negative sentiment was added by the comments of the famous investor Warren Buffett, who said this week that cryptocurrencies "basically have no value."
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We remind you that cryptocurrency trading is available on certain types of accounts at Fibo Group. Use the current rally and earn both growth and fall of #crypto
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Brexit: "If there is no progress, we will stop cooperating"

On Thursday, the UK government published a 46 page document explaining its position on a future trade agreement with the EU after Brexit.
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In fact, the document once again emphasized the tough stance of Britain, which the European side simply could not support (too long list of preferences). As a result, we have a continuation of the confrontation between Europe and Britain. When trading two currencies of these countries, we still look in favor of a strong euro (purchases #EURGBP) in anticipation of the start of negotiations that will start next Monday.
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Crisis: Coronavirus made the world shudder

The spread of the epidemic outside of China continues to accelerate, spanning new countries. In most European countries where coronavirus cases were first reported, diseased patients returned from Italy.
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Financial markets, which have fallen since the beginning of the week, finally capitulated yesterday. Extremely negative sentiment prevails in the markets this morning. Between Monday and Thursday, the capitalization of global stock markets hit $ 3 trillion.
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- S&P500 increased weekly losses to 12%.

- #Interest rate now the probability of reducing the key rate at the next meeting is close to 100%

- #VIX Volatility Index (also called the fear index) indicates the most severe destabilization in world markets since August 2015.

- The price of #Brent dropped below $ 51 per barrel for the first time since December 2018.
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The scale of the panic is absolutely incredible.
Everything happens very quickly, and the observed collapse of the markets already looks much more serious than it was at the end of 2018. And this is only the beginning, the markets have not yet understood what is happening now in Syria ...

We look forward to opening markets on Monday with a huge gap.
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China's manufacturing PMI drops in February amid epidemic

PMI in China's industrial sector in February, amid an outbreak of coronavirus, sharply slowed to a record 35.7 points, which was significantly lower than analysts' expectations, according to data released on Saturday by the state statistical office of the PRC.

Compared to January of this year, when the PMI stopped at around 50 points, the figure fell by 14.3 percentage points. Due to the coronavirus epidemic, experts predicted a further slowdown, but only to 46 points.

A PMI value above 50 points indicates an increase in activity, lower - about its decline. Prior to this, February 2019 was the worst for industrial PMI in the last three years, when the figure slowed to 49.2 points.

On December 31, 2019, the Chinese authorities informed the World Health Organization (WHO) about an outbreak of unknown pneumonia in the city of Wuhan in the central part of the country (Hubei Province). Experts have identified the causative agent of the disease - this is a new coronavirus. WHO recognized the outbreak as an emergency of international importance and gave the disease its official name - COVID-19.

The number of infected in mainland China reached 79.2 thousand people, 2835 died, over 39 thousand were cured. Cases of infection outside the PRC were recorded, according to WHO on Friday, in 51 countries, the number of infected reached 4691, 67 people died.

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/Bloomberg
 

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Financial markets began the week calmly and without sharp failures. However, there are no reasons for optimism. Unless the expectation of emergency support measures from governments and central banks. Markets lay a 100% probability of a cut in the US Federal Reserve rate immediately by 0.5% at a meeting on March 18
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Weekly Calendar:

03/02/2020, Monday

#Brexit start of the negotiations.

03/03/2020, Tuesday

#interestrate of the Reserve Bank of Australia;
#EU unemployment in January;
#inflation in the EU (preliminary data for February);
Super Tuesday Primaries in the United States (American primary).

03/04/2020, Wednesday

Australian #GDP (4Q 2019);
#PMI UK for February;
Interest rate of the Bank of Canada;
#NonFarmPayroll preliminary data from the US labor market.

03/05/2020, Thursday

#OPEC start of the first day of the summit of oil workers.

03/06/2020, Friday

#OPEC second day of the summit of oil workers;
#NonFarmPayroll US Labor Market Data;
#NonFarmPayroll Canada Labor Market Data.

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fibogroup.com

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The crisis is canceled?

Despite the apocalyptic statements from the world media, global markets were inspired by the statements of the Regulators on their readiness to support the global economy (100% probability of a Fed rate cut on March 18) and the organization of OPEC on the readiness of an unprecedented reduction in production by 1 million barrels per day.

#Brent oil grows by 7.1%, #WTI (traded with us) grows by 7.5%.

Stock indices of America, China, Japan, Europe and Britain closed the first day of trading in positive territory. Apple is growing at 7%. #EURUSD pushing off the bottom is growing by more than 200 basis points.
The crisis is canceled)))
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fibogroup.com

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Reserve Bank of Australia cuts key interest rate to historic lows

The Bank of Australia lowered its key rate from 0.75% to 0.5%, recognizing pressure on the economy due to coronavirus.

This decision was unexpected for the markets, the consensus on the eve of the meeting showed unchanged. The main argument of monetary authorities is the negative impact of the coronavirus.

The current inflation rate in Australia is 1.8%; inflation target - 2-3%.

The markets are determined that the US Federal Reserve will lower the rate this month, moreover, by 50 bp immediately and not waiting for the FOMC meeting on March 18. Such cases have happened in history (when the Fed unscheduled the rate cut), but this always happened during periods of panic in the stock market. The current situation is not panic.

We believe that for an unscheduled reduction in rates, the fall in markets should become more serious.
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