1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Forex InfoBook : GOLD Technical Analysis : 01-05 July 2019

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by ForexInfoBook, Jul 3, 2019.

  1. ForexInfoBook

    ForexInfoBook Recruit

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2019
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Forex InfoBook's last week’s recommendation to short GOLD above 1432 yielded gains of over 300 pips to traders.

    This Gold weekly trading analysis is valid for the trading period between 01 to 05 July 2019 [published on 30 June 2019].

    [​IMG]

    As mentioned in our analysis earlier, GOLD breaking above 1345 was a sign for bulls to take out 1400 – the move was fairly quick with the GOLD gaining almost 12% in just over a month. Gold had wiped out all resistances built up over past several years on the back of US China trade tensions and tensions in the Middle East.

    We expected Gold to find resistance at the 1433 level which was a major resistance levels seen in 2013 and 2010. While the price briefly shot through the level to reach a high of 1439, a strong pull back down to the 1400 levels was seen.

    This week could provide GOLD with enough reasons to build upper and lower ranges of consolidation.

    With the US-China trade talks back on track, GOLD is likely to test the support in 1380 to 1360 zone.

    US-Iran tensions and any escalations from US or Iran could provide GOLD with yet another leg to retest 1433 resistance – this would provide traders with yet another opportunity to go short.

    Recommendation for this week:
    Long GOLD @ 1365 (after a H1 reversal bar) with Stoploss below 1355 for Targets 1400 and 1430.
    Short GOLD @ 1435 (after a H1 reversal bar) with Stoploss above 1440 for Targets 1400 and 1360.


    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forex InfoBook : Get Smart, Get Profitable
    forexinfobook.com
     
  2. ForexInfoBook

    ForexInfoBook Recruit

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2019
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Latest GOLD (XAUUSD) technical analysis shows possible consolidation in the range between 1360 to 1440 range before any significant breakout is seen. Our last week’s recommendation (Refer Previous Post) was to short GOLD above 1434 and go long on reversal from 1360. The price action was exactly as predicted, GOLD price dropped but the reversal was seen at the top side of the support zone at 1382. This did not give traders a chance to enter the recommended long trade.

    GOLD price shot up to 1437 (a 500 pip move) and was rejected at the resistance zone as expected. However, the H1 reversal bar had a range of 100 pips bringing down the price to below 1428 – much below our recommended entry level at 1434. The price came down sharply to the 1390 again.

    Aggressive traders with higher tolerance would have make good gains. Our recommended trade entry levels after H1 reversal bar have missed out on this near perfect weekly technical analysis.

    For safe traders, there are always plenty of trading opportunities – Sticking to a plan and having the discipline to stay out of the temptation to jump in is part of the emotional challenge manual traders need to master. There is nothing wrong in being an aggressive trader as long as the plan to be so is defined before-hand. Gains and loss will need to be taken as part of the business of trading with minimal or no emotional reaction to the result.

    [​IMG]

    Based on this week’s technical analysis of the GOLD 4 hour chart, we expect price to consolidate in the range between 1360 to 1440 range before any significant one way direction is seen.

    GOLD (XAUUSD) Recommendation for this week:

    Short GOLD @ 1435 (after a H1 reversal bar) with Stop loss above 1440 for Targets 1400 and 1360.

    Long GOLD @ 1385 (after a H1 reversal bar) with Stop-loss below 1375 for Targets 1400 and 1430.

    Long GOLD @ 1365 (after a H1 reversal bar) with Stop-loss below 1355 for Targets 1400 and 1430.

    Always define your risk tolerance and trading goals before starting to trade – sticking to a plan is as important as the technical analysis itself.

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forex InfoBook : Get Smart, Get Profitable
    forexinfobook.com
     
  3. ForexInfoBook

    ForexInfoBook Recruit

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2019
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    GOLD Technical Analysis : 15-19 July 2019

    As expected in our previous week’s GOLD technical analysis, price consolidation and ranged trading was seen within the 1382 and 1434 levels. Our last week’s recommendation was to short GOLD above 1434 and BUY on reversal from 1385. The BUY side of the recommendation was triggered and enabled traders to gain between +150 pips to +350 pips last week.

    [​IMG]

    Based on this week’s technical analysis of the GOLD 4 hour chart, we expect price to further consolidate in the range between 1382 to 1434 range before any significant direction is seen.

    Further narrowing of the range may be possible if the 20 Day MA provides support at 1400 levels and price is resisted at the trend line currently at 1420 level (shown in red). Price reversals at these levels may be used by aggressive traders to make a quick trades.

    The risk:reward of trades based on such interim ranged trades are not attractive and we recommend waiting for price to reach the major support and resistance zones for taking positions with good risk:reward ratios.

    With the FED rate cut of 25 bp fully priced in, GOLD may need further dovish statements to test or break the strong resistance being formed above 1434.

    GOLD (XAUUSD) Recommendation for this week:

    Long GOLD @ 1385 (after a H1 reversal bar) with Stop-loss below 1375 for Targets 1400 and 1430.

    Short GOLD @ 1435 (after a H1 reversal bar) with Stop loss above 1440 for Targets 1400 and 1360. Avoid Short trades in case price move is in reaction to FED dovish statements signaling further easing.

    Always define your risk tolerance and trading goals before starting to trade – sticking to a plan is as important as the technical analysis itself.

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forex InfoBook : Get Smart, Get Profitable
    forexinfobook.com
     
  4. ForexInfoBook

    ForexInfoBook Recruit

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2019
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    ForexInfoBook presents the weekly Forex technical analysis of GOLD,(XAUUSD), EURUSD and GBPUSD for 22 to 26 July 2019. Key data releases may provide direction to US Dollar. This could make Gold price reach its top and bottom trading ranges. EURUSD trading opportunity is seen with ECB Monetary Policy statement and Interest Rate decision. The Brexit uncertainty continues to make GBP trading relatively risky, however with a possible bottom formation provides a trading opportunity.

    GOLD Technical Analysis

    [​IMG]

    Our previous Gold technical analysis indicated price to further consolidate in the range 1400 to 1420. Price reached 1400 level and revered as expected providing aggressive traders a profitable long opportunity. Gold broke out on the back of dovish FED driving up the July rate cut expectation of 50 BP. Gold price broke 1440 level to make a high at 1453 and retraced back below the major resistance zone 1434-3439. Pull back was seen late on Friday after FED statements signaled only the already priced in 25 BP.

    During this week, price action will focus on US GDP and IMF reports which may show weakness in global economy. Risk-aversion could strengthen US Dollar and Japanese Yen. GOLD may remain inside the ranges defined by 1400 and 1439. GOLD has priced in a 25 BP rate cut and move higher may need further dovish signals from FED. Escalations in political tensions in middle east could see retest of recent high at 1453. Break above 1440 on 50 BP rate cut would take Gold to 50% fib level at 1484 level.

    GOLD (XAUUSD) Recommendation for this week:

    Long GOLD @ 1405 (after a H1 reversal bar) with Stop-loss below 1395 for Targets 1430.
    Short GOLD @ 1435 (after a H1 reversal bar) with Stop loss above 1445 for Targets 1400 and 1385.
    Avoid Short trades in case price move is in reaction to FED dovish statements signaling further easing


    Weekly EURUSD Technical Analysis

    [​IMG]

    EURUSD price has been contained within 1.1200 to 1.1280 range over past three weeks. This week's ECB Monetary Statement and Interest Rate decision may provide a break from the range. We expect retest of strong support at 1.1100 or the resistance at 1.1400 level. US GDP and IMF report could provide for two way trading opportunity. However, Long EURUSD provides better risk:reward setups and is recommended for this week.

    EURUSD Recommendation for this week:

    Buy EURUSD @ 1.1110 (after a H1 reversal bar) with Stop-loss below 1.0080 for Targets 1.1280


    Avoid Long trade in case 1.1100 is being tested before ECB risk event. Break below is possible if 25 BP rate cut is seen. In the case of 10 BP rate cut or no rate cut, EURUSD could move up above 1.1200 level again. US GDP data on Friday will provide further direction. Weaker US GDP could see risk aversion leading to EURUSD retesting 1.1100. Better than expected US GDP data could improve sentiment to take EURUSD back above 1.1300-1.1400 range.

    Weekly GBPUSD Technical Analysis

    [​IMG]

    The extreme level of Brexit uncertainty and UK Parliamentary grid-lock makes it highly risky. GBPUSD has built up large speculative shorts over past few weeks. Any positive Brexit development would bring in a short squeeze since GBP has been long ignoring its decent economic data.

    The long term trend, Brexit/UK Political scenario encourage short positions, but the risk:reward does not warrant shorts at these levels. If 1.2400 is broken decisively on back of further negative developments, shorts can be considered.

    Since the Support at 1.2430 was broken only briefly, 1.2400 level could provide a potential level for bottom formation. Aggressive traders could consider long positions on reversal from 1.2400 level for targets of 1.2600 to 1.2700. Our recommendation is watch for Brexit developments that could provide better trading opportunities rather than trading technical levels. Weekly Forex technical analysis always works better when combined with a little bit of fundamental analysis.

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forex InfoBook : Get Smart, Get Profitable
    forexinfobook.com
     

Share This Page