Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, AUDUSD

The US Dollar gained against GBP, JPY and NZD but lost some ground against EUR and AUD on the first trading day of the week, which is full of important economic releases. Investors will now focus on Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's testimony and the release of retail sales data, scheduled later on Tuesday. Given the backdrop, here is a technical overview for some important major currency pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD and AUDUSD.

EURUSD

On Tuesday, the pair dropped below 1.3600 mark, moving closer to 1.3580-70 important support area. As could be seen on 4-hourly chart, the pair is forming a bearish chart pattern, Head & Shoulders with neck-line support coinciding with 1.3580-70 support area. Hence, a break below this important support area, seems to trigger additional near-term weakness for the pair initially towards 1.3530 horizontal support and further towards 1.3450 support, which also happens to be the target of the bearish chart pattern. However, only a move back above 1.3650-60 resistance zone, could possibly negate the short-term bearish outlook for the pair.

GBPUSD

Following the release of higher-than-expected CPI figure, the pair rebounded from 1.7060-50 support area, comprising of the lower trend-line support of a short-term descending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart and 23.6% Fib. retracement level. The pair is currently trading near the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel near 1.7150 level. Should the pair manage to decisively clear this resistance area, the pair then seems to easily surpass 1.7200 round figure mark and continue appreciating in the near-term towards 1.7400 area. Alternatively, should the pair starts reversing from current resistance level and drop back below 1.7110-1.7100 immediate horizontal support, it might drop below 1.7060-50 important support and continue dropping towards 1.7000 round figure mark, also coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level.

USDJPY

The pair continues with its range-bound trade and is not indicating a clear directional move. However, considering the formation of a descending triangle on daily chart and decisive trade below 200-day and 100-day SMA probably suggests a break on the downside. However, the upcoming bearish move could be confirmed only once the pair decisively breaks below 101.00-100.80 important support area, the horizontal line support forming part of the descending triangular formation. A decisive break below this horizontal line support is likely to confirm continuation of the near-term downtrend towards testing sub-100.00 psychological level. However, a move back above 102.00-102.10 confluence zone, comprising of 200-day, 100-day SMA and a descending trend-line (forming part of the descending triangle), could possibly negate the short-term bearish outlook for the pair.

NZDUSD

After nearly retesting July 2011 highs, also marking 61.8% Fib. expansion level, the pair is witnessing some profit taking moves. The current pull-back could possibly get extended till a short-term ascending trend-line support near 0.8750, should the pair break below 0.8800 round figure mark. Further a break below 0.8750 support could possibly trigger some additional depreciating move towards 0.8680-0.8660 horizontal support area. Meanwhile, only a move back above 0.8840-50 resistance zone would confirm continuation of the ongoing upward momentum and the pair might continue appreciating in the near-term even beyond 0.9100 mark, representing 100% Fib. expansion level.

AUDUSD

The pair is currently trading very close the a short-term ascending trend-line support, which if decisively breached could force the pair to retest the break-out point, currently near 0.9300 round figure mark. Further, a drop below 0.9300 support could increase the vulnerability of the pair and the pair could possibly witness further corrective move towards 0.9200 support area. Alternatively, a bounce back from current levels and strength above 0.9400 mark has the potential to boost the pair back towards 0.9500 mark and continue its short-term trajectory towards 0.9600 level.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: USDCAD, EURCAD, USDCHF and CADCHF

Having witnessed a negative closing on Monday, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) gained heavily on Tuesday as the Tuesday’s testimony by Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, signaled readiness on the part of the Federal Reserve to hike their benchmark interest rate sooner than expected if the job market continues to improve. On Wednesday, the Fed Chair is scheduled to present her testimony in front of House Financial Services Committee that can provide liquid forex market conditions. Further, the monetary policy meeting by Bank of Canada, scheduled for Wednesday, also becomes crucial for the CAD as market players continue expecting a hint of monetary policy alteration. Current week is full of important economic releases that can fuel considerable liquidity into the forex market. Meanwhile, the following is a brief technical overview of USDCAD, EURCAD, USDCHF and CADCHF pairs.

USDCAD

USDCAD again reversed from its strong support of ascending trend line, stretched from September 2012, indicating a continuation of Bull Run. The pair did surpass 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its up move, connecting December 2013 lows to March 2014 highs, and is heading towards its 200-day EMA near 1.0780, breaking which it can rally towards 1.0835 – 1.0845 region before testing important resistance zone of 1.0915 – 1.0920, coinciding 50% Fibo Level. Alternatively, resistance turned support of 76.4% Fibo level near 1.0730 -25 region can become immediate rest for the pair, breaking which the pair becomes vulnerable to re-test the ascending trend line support of 1.0650; however, 1.0700 can provide intermediate support for the pair. On the sustained trading below 1.0650, the pair can test December 2013 low near 1.0560.

EURCAD

The pair continued following the descending trend channel and is currently testing the resistance line of the channel. Should the pair reverses from the resistance level near 1.4600, it is likely to test the 1.4540 and 1.4500, encompassing 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its July 2013 to April 2014 up-move. On the consequent trading below 1.4500, the pair can test 1.4440, breaking which support line of the channel near 1.4310 can provide strong support to the pair. Should the pair surpasses the resistance level, 200-day EMA, near 1.4690, can become immediate resistance for the pair before it rallies to 1.4760 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level), 1.4780 and 1.4900 levels. Considering the strength of CAD coupled with the prevailing descending trend channel, the pair is likely to continue its downtrend from the current level.

USDCHF

Yesterday, USDCHF closed above its 200-day SMA for the first time in nearly a month; the pair continued its upward trajectory today by surpassing the upper line of descending trend channel on daily chart. Moreover, the MACD line is signaling a cross above zero line, which can become additional evidence of the Bull Run continuation, should the pair closes above its resistance level. From the current level, a close above 0.8940 is required for the pair to test 0.9015, breaking which it can rally towards 0.9075 and 0.9150 resistance levels. On the downside, a strong support of 200-day SMA and upper line of descending trend channel near 0.8940 remains critical for the pair, breaking which the 100-day SMA, near 0.8880 – 0.8875 region, can become immediate support before it tests 0.8860-50 region. Should the pair continue trading down after testing 0.8850, it becomes vulnerable to head towards horizontal line support level of 0.8700; however, 0.8760-55 can become intermediate support for the pair.

CADCHF

CADCHF continued observing the ascending trend line since late April, the pair is now testing support line of the channel, coupled with 200-day EMA, near 0.8330 – 0.8325 region. Should the pair breaks below the mentioned support region, which is well supported by the declining MACD line, it can test 0.8220 – 0.8210 support zone, coinciding 100-day EMA and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its May 203 to March 2014 downturn. A sustained trading below the psychological support level of 0.8200 negates the chances of near-term up-move by the pair and makes it vulnerable to test sub 0.8050 levels. Alternatively, 0.8380 and 0.8415 can become immediate resistances for the pair, breaking which it can test 38.2% Fibo level near 0.8470. However, near-term upside movement of the pair seems capped by the upper line of the channel near psychological level of 0.8500.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBPUSD Likely To Witness Near-Term Corrective Move

On Tuesday, GBPUSD rebounded from an intermediate support near 1.7060-50 and managed to 1.7100 mark following the release of data that showed UK inflation accelerated in June, strengthening the case of an earlier than expected rate hike by BoE.

The pair, however, continues facing difficulty in conquering the 1.7200 round figure mark resistance as the head of the Federal Reserve, during her semi-annual testimony on monetary policy, indicated the possibilities of an earlier than expected rate hike should the recent improvement in the US labor market and economic conditions remain on track.

Technically, even if the pair manages to clear 1.7200 handle, it is likely to confront another major resistance near 1.7240 level, comprising of 100% Fib. Expansion Level and the upper trend-line resistance of a medium-term ascending channel formation on daily chart.

Hence, there is a fair possibility that after a big surge of nearly 5% from the lows touched in Feb. 2014, the pair might witness some profit taking move. The pair could initially drop back to 1.7060-40 immediate support and continue weakening towards 1.7000 round figure mark, representing 61.8% Fib. Expansion Level.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: Important Euro Pairs

Euro region currency weakened against majority of its counterparts during the current week as continued promotion of loose monetary policy by ECB President, Mario Draghi, in his testimony on Monday, triggered weakness for the single currency. Moreover, the weaker ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers, published on Tuesday, and the low inflation numbers, published on Thursday, continued supporting the bear moves for the Euro. Meanwhile, the following is a brief technical overview of EURGBP, EURAUD and EURJPY pairs.

EURGBP

The descending trend channel on H4 chart continued signaling downturn of the pair; however, reversal from the lower band is expected to cause a pullback into pair prices which is well supported by the reversing indication of the MACD line. Currently, the pair is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of its recent downturn which signals the pair to test 0.7920, breaking which 0.7935 can restrict the pair’s up-move towards 0.7965 and 0.7980 (upper band of trend channel). Should the pair sustains the breakout of 0.7980, it can rally to 0.8035. Alternatively, the lower band of the channel near 0.7890-85 region can become strong support for the pair, breaking which it can test 0.7800 level.

EURAUD

Yesterday, the pair broke below 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its late-May to mid-June downturn. Moreover, it has recently broke down below its ascending trend channel on H4 chart, coupled with the MACD line trading below zero level, signaling the downtrend to continue. From the current level, 1.4400 – 1.4395 can become immediate support for the pair before it tests the June low of 1.4357. On the consequent trading below 1.4357, the pair can dip towards 1.4300 and 1.4230 levels. On the upside, a break of 1.4460 negates the breakdown of ascending trend channel and can fuel the pair towards 23.6% Fibo level near 1.4480. On the successful trading above 1.4480, the pair can rally towards 1.4530 level.

EURJPY

Having tested more than five month low, the pair is currently trading near 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its recent downturn from 139.27 level. Should the pair witnesses a pullback, as supported by the ascending trend line on MACD, horizontal resistance turned support zone of 137.65 – 137.70 becomes immediate for the pair. On the break of 137.70, the descending trend line resistance of 138.15 becomes important for the pair to rally towards 138.80 level, signaled by another descending trend line stretched from early June. On the downside, psychological support level of 137 can become an immediate halt for the pair before it jumps to 136.65-70 region, coinciding 100% FE. On the successive trading below 136.65, the pair can test the yearly low near 136.20 level.

EURNZD

The ascending trend line on H1 chart signals EURNZD to continue its up-move towards horizontal resistance level of 1.5595 – 1.5600, breaking which the pair can rally towards 1.5630 and 1.5650. A successive trading above 1.5650 fuels the pair towards surpassing 1.5700 level. Should it reverses from the current level, 1.5535 level, signaled by ascending trend line support, becomes important for the pair. On the consequent trading below 1.5510, 1.5475 becomes crucial for the pair.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - Gold and Silver

Following their sharp drop for two consecutive days since the beginning of this week, both the precious metals, Gold and Silver, managed to move higher on Wednesday. Also on Thursday, both Gold and Silver are trading higher amid cautious trade. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for the aforesaid precious metals.

Gold

Following its two day sharp drop, the yellow metal rebounded from its immediate strong support near 1290-80 zone, comprising of 100-day, 200-day SMA and nearing 50% Fib. retracement level. On 1-hourly chart, the metal is now trading well within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation. Considering the counter trend ascending channel formation in conjunction with its recent sharp fall constitutes towards formation of Flag chart pattern, considered to be a bearish chart pattern, suggesting a possible resumption of the downtrend for the yellow metal. Hence, a drop below 1290-80 immediate strong support could possibly drag the metal further lower towards testing another support area near 1260-50 area, marked by 61.8% retracement level. Alternatively, a move back above 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance near 1310 area, also coinciding with the upper trend-line resistance of the short-term ascending channel, seems to lift the metal back towards 1325 horizontal resistance. Meanwhile, a decisive move and close back above 1325-30 resistance zone, now seems to provide additional thrust to clear 1340-50 important resistance and lift the metal back towards 1390-1400 psychological mark.

Silver

After failing to decisive clear the upper trend-line resistance of an ascending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart, Silver decisively dropped below the lower trend-line support possibly suggesting continuation of the near-term corrective move following a big surge witnessed in the month of June. Although there is a possibility that the white metal could bounce back and retest the support break level, now turned immediate resistance, near 21.00 mark, the metal in the near-term is suggesting a drop back below 20.00 psychological mark, to 19.90-80 support area. However, a decisive move back above 21.00, leading to a further strength above 21.20 horizontal resistance, could possibly negate the bearish outlook. The metal then could easily surpass the upper trend-line resistance near 21.50-60 resistance area and continue appreciating towards 21.90-22.00 resistance area, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF

The US Dollar strengthened against its major counterparts - EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY on speculations of an earlier-than-expected rate hike by the Federal Reserve and on escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Gaza. Following last week's surprisingly disappointing US housing data, investors will now have a chance to further evaluate the health of US housing sector with the release of existing home sales data, later during the day. Meanwhile, US CPI data, also scheduled for release on Tuesday, is likely to take the center stage. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for some important major currency pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY.

EURUSD

On Tuesday, the pair dropped below 1.3500 mark, decisively breaking below 38.2% Fib. retracement level to test a very important support near 1.3480-70 zone. Sustained trading below this support area has the potential to continue exerting pressure on the pair initially towards an intermediate support near 1.3430 region. The pair in the near-term might continue depreciating towards 1.3350 support region. Meanwhile, any bounce back from this support region now seems to confront with an immediate resistance near 1.3520-30 area, which if conquered could possibly boost the pair back towards 1.3600 horizontal resistance area.

GBPUSD

Following a break below drop below 1.7070-50 support area, the pair rebounded from a trend-line support and is now trading close to 1.7070 level. From current levels the pair seems vulnerable to retest the trend-line support, currently near 1.7020 area. However, should the pair manage to strengthen above 1.7070 support turned immediate resistance, it could possibly extend the up-move immediately towards a major upside resistance near 1.7100-1.7120 area. A decisive strength above this major resistance could easily lift the pair even beyond 1.7200 handle, towards 1.7220-30 resistance area. Meanwhile, a break below the trend-line support could further accelerate the downfall even below 1.7000 psychological mark, towards 1.6980-90 support area.

USDJPY

On 4-hourly chart, the pair seems to have formed a bullish chart pattern, Double Bottom. The pattern, however, is still not complete until the pair manages to clear a very important resistance near 102.00 round figure mark, also nearing an important confluence of a descending trend-line resistance and 200-day, 100-day SMAs near 102.10 level. A move above this important resistance might negate any bearish outlook for the pair and the pair could easily climb back 103.00 intermediate resistance and further towards 103.80 resistance level. Alternatively, a move below 101.00 mark and subsequent break below 100.80 horizontal resistance is likely to confirm continuation of the near-term downtrend towards testing sub-100.00 psychological level.

USDCHF

Following a rebound from 100-day SMA support and move back above 200-day SMA, the pair on Wednesday managed to move above 0.9000 psychological mark. The pair now seems all set to continue appreciating immediately towards 61.8% Fib. expansion level resistance near 0.9060-70 area. Meanwhile, on the downside 0.8980-70 horizontal zone might now provide immediate support for the pair. This is closely followed by 200-day SMA support, currently near 0.8940. A break below 200-day SMA is likely to find another strong support near 0.8900 level, which might now act as a short-term bottom for the pair.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: Important NZD Pairs

New Zealand Dollar liquidated some of its recent gains as economic improvements suggests that RBNZ would wait before yet another rate hike; however, market expectations support fourth increase in official cash rate when RBNZ announces its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Should the central bank continue pursuing higher interest rates the NZD strength is expected to restore. Meanwhile, the following is the brief technical overview of the pairs connected to New Zealand Dollar.

NZDUSD

Yesterday, the NZDUSD again plunged to the multiple support zone of 0.8655 – 0.8645; however, the pair reversed from the support range during the early hours of today. The Descending trend line on the H4, near 0.8710, can restrict the present up-move of the pair, breaking which it is likely to rally towards 0.8730 and 0.8785-90 levels. Should the pair sustains the breakout of 0.8785-90 resistance zone, double top formation on weekly chart near 0.8835-45 region can cap the medium term up-move by the pair. On the downside, a close below 0.8645 can force the pair to test 0.8575 and 0.8525 support levels. A sustained trading below 0.8525 is likely to be followed by the 0.8475-70 support zone. Moreover, the ascending trend line on RSI and the expectations surrounding the rate hike by RBNZ is likely to support the near-term up-move of the pair.

EURNZD

EURNZD recently broke below its important support zone of 1.5505 - 1.5500, signaling a test of 1.5440 – 1.5430 support zone, breaking which the psychological support level of 1.5400 can become important support before it plunges to multiple support zone near 1.5340. Alternatively, a trade above support turned resistance zone of 1.5500 – 1.5505 can fuel the pair towards descending trend line resistance near 1.5585, breaking which 1.5645 – 1.5650 can restrict the near-term up-move by the pair. However, considering the Euro weakness against NZD and the descending RSI levels, the pair is likely to maintain its slow downtrend.

AUDNZD

Having reversed from the ascending trend line support during mid-July, AUDNZD is testing its 200-day SMA. Should the pair closes above its 200-day SMA level, it can surpass the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its October 2013 to January 2014 downturn by testing 1.0910 – 1.0915 resistance zone. On the successful trading above 1.0915, the pair is vulnerable to rally towards 50% Fibo. Level near 1.1030. On the downside, 1.0810 and the 1.0745 (23.6% Fibo. level) is likely to provide near-term support to the pair, breaking which it is expected to re-test ascending trend line support near 1.0650, which is likely act as the medium term rest for the pair.

GBPNZD

Even after surpassing 50-day SMA during last week, the GBPNZD reversed from 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its downturn connecting the year high in January and the low of the year in March. The pair is currently testing its 38.2% Fibo. Level, also coinciding 50-day SMA, near 1.9600 – 1.9595 support zone. Considering the dip in RSI coupled with pair’s inability to rise, it is more likely that the pair plunges to its immediate support near 0.9500 on the break of 1.9595, breaking which the ascending trend line support coupled with the 23.6% Fibo. level near 1.9400 is likely to limit the medium-term down trend of the pair. Alternatively, 50% Fibo. Level near 0.9760 can become immediate resistance for the pair before it rallies to 1.9850. A sustained trading above 1.9850 can fuel the pair to surpass 1.9900 level.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook: USDCAD, USDCHF, EURCAD and EURCHF

US Dollar continued getting buyer’s attention ahead of the important releases, like advanced estimation of Q2 2014 GDP, FOMC meeting and ADP Non-farm Employment Change, scheduled to release today. Moreover, the geo-political tensions in Gaza kept underpinning the safe haven demand of the greenback. On the other hand, Euro remained suppressed against majority of its counterparts as Russian crisis coupled with not to positive economic releases supported pessimism for the regional currency. Market players are eyeing today’s important releases from US together with the Flash Estimation of EU CPI y/y, scheduled to release on Thursday, in addition to the Friday’s US labor market numbers to determine the near-term movement of the Euro and the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, the following is the brief technical overview of USDCAD, USDCHF, EURCAD and EURCHF.

USDCAD

Having closed above its 200-day SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its up move, connecting December 2013 lows to March 2014 highs, the USDCAD is trading near six week high. Also, the MACD indicating run above zero line which again depicts the strength of the Bull Run. From the current level, the psychological resistance of 1.0900 becomes immediate for the pair which is closely followed by multiple resistance zone of 1.0915 – 1.0925 (encompassing 50% Fibo. level). Should the pair successfully encounters 1.0925, it is vulnerable to head towards 1.0980 level. Alternatively, important resistance turned support zone near 1.0840 – 1.0835, including 200-day SMA and 61.8% Fibo. Level, can become immediate support for the pair, breaking which 1.0780 and 1.0760 are likely supports that the pair can test before plunging to 1.0730 which encompasses 76.4% Fibo. level.

USDCHF

USDCHF continued its upward trajectory after surpassing the upper line of descending trend channel and 200-day SMA on daily chart. The pair is currently testing multiple resistance zone of 0.9075 – 0.9080, near six month high, by surpassing the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of its May low to June high. On the continuation of its recent up-move, which is more likely after considering the breakout and the MACD strength, 0.9130 becomes immediate resistance for the pair. On the successful rise above 0.9130, the pair can face multiple resistances between 0.9160 – 0.9170, encompassing 100% FE. On the downside, 0.9040 (61.8% FE) becomes immediate support for the pair, breaking which the pair expected to test 0.8990 level. Should the pair continue trading below 0.8990, the important resistance turned support near 0.8945, including 200-day SMA and upper line of descending trend channel, can become decisive for the pair’s near-term movement.

EURCAD

After reversing from the 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its July 2013 to April 2014 up-move, the EURCAD broke its descending trend channel resistance today, giving rise to expectations of testing the 1.4580 and 1.4630 resistance levels before rallying to its 200-day EMA level of 1.4680. Should the pair continue its northward journey above 1.4680, the pair can test 38.2% Fibo. level neat 1.4750. Alternatively, the resistance turned support of the upper line of the trend channel near 1.4515 can become immediate support for the pair, which is closely followed by 50% Fibo. level and the psychological support of 1.4500. A trade below 1.4500 can cause the pair to re-test month’s low near 1.4420 while a break below 1.4420 negates the chances of near-term up-move by the pair and can make it vulnerable to test sub 1.4300 levels.

EURCHF

EURCHF continued it’s sideways to up-move, as signaled by the ascending trend line, by testing the three week’s high. 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of its January – March downturn, near 1.2168 – 70 region, can become immediate resistance for the pair before it rallies to 1.2185 and 1.2200 levels. A daily close above psychological resistance level of 1.2200 is followed by 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fibo. level resistance near 1.2215. On the downside, 1.2155 and the ascending trend line support of 1.2140 can become immediate supports for the pair followed by the 1.2130 and the March month low of 1.2100. The upward slanting MACD coupled with the ascending trend line keep supporting the sideways to up trend of the pair.

Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - GBPUSD, USDJPY and GBPJPY

Following their drop on Tuesday, both GBP and JPY continued weakening against USD, leading to a range-bound movement for GBPJPY cross currency pair. Investors now wait for the FOMC decision and US second-quarter GDP reading, scheduled later on Wednesday. Given the backdrop, here is a technical update for GBPUSD, USDJPY and GBPJPY.

GBPUSD

On Tuesday, the pair decisive dropped below 50-day SMA support, confirming the continuation of short-term down-trend as depicted by a descending channel formation on 4-hourly chart. The pair is currently trading close to the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, near 1.6920, and considering the short-term RSI reading at 30, the pair could possibly attempt a pull-back towards immediate support turned resistance at 50-day SMA, currently near 1.6970. However, should the pair fail to hold the lower trend-line support, it seems more likely to immediately accelerate the downfall towards 1.6850 important support area, comprising of 100-day SMA and the lower trend-line support of a medium-term ascending channel formation on daily chart.

USDJPY

Following a move above 102.00 mark, the pair is trading near a very important resistance level near 102.30 area, comprising of 200-day SMA and the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending channel formation on 1-hourly chart. A decisive break above this immediate resistance could further boost the pair immediately towards 103.00 intermediate resistance and then towards 103.80 horizontal resistance zone. On the downside, 102.00 mark now seems to protect immediate downside for the pair and weakness below this immediate support could possibly negate the recent strength and the pair could easily drop back 101.20 important support zone with 101.70 level acting as intermediate support.

GBPJPY

The pair continues with its recent range-bound trade, holding a very strong support near 172.50 area, representing a short-term trend-line visible on 4-hourly chart. Hence, a decisive break below this immediate support is likely to trigger a swift downfall immediately towards 171.20-171.00 horizontal support area. Alternatively, should the pair continue holding above the trend-line support and manage to clear its immediate resistance near 173.30-50 horizontal area, it could easily climb back towards its next horizontal resistance near 174.00 round figure mark. Further, a decisive strength above 174.00 would probably confirm resumption of the pair medium-term up-move and the pair could easily reclaim 175.00 round figure mark.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Daily Wave Analysis for 31 July 2014


EURUSD

The bearish momentum could be part of an ABC (magenta) or a wave 3 (blue), which will depend on how slow or fast price retraces back up. In the 1st case a wave 3 is more likely; in the latter an ABC.

4 hour EURUSD:

If further downside occurs then the wave 5 (dark red) would become extended.

60 min EURUSD:

GBPUSD

A bearish wave 3 (magenta) could potentially translate into a decline towards the 161.8% or 261.8% Fibonacci targets. The latter is equal to the weekly bottom (green line).

4 hour GBPUSD:

Yesterday’s bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level was a wave 4 (red). A breakout (red arrow) could see a potential further decline towards wave 3 (magenta) Fibonacci targets.

60 min GBPUSD:

USDJPY

Yesterday price action within wave c (red) accelerated towards the 200% Fibonacci target.

4 hour USDJPY:

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”