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Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
GBP/USD: producer price growth slowed
15/08/2017
Current dynamics

The consumer price index (CPI) of the UK in July compared with July last year increased by 2.6% (the forecast was + 2.7%). Thus, according to the data presented today, in July the annual rate of consumer inflation did not change with respect to June. But the annual growth rate of purchasing prices of producers in July slowed sharply - to 6.5% from 10% in June.
As a result of the sharp weakening of the pound after the referendum on Brexit in May, consumer price inflation accelerated to a maximum of 2.9% in mid-2013. Against the background of the weakening of the pound, the purchasing power of the British sharply decreased, which sharply limited their spending.
Retail sales are one of the main "fillers" of British GDP. The slowdown in inflation favorably influences the British economy, which is oriented primarily toward the domestic market. Improving the situation in the service sector for consumers, which has recovered due to strong retail sales, contributes to GDP growth in the UK. So, according to official data released last Wednesday, in the second quarter, the British economy grew by 0.3% after rising 0.2% in the 1st quarter.
The pound declined after the publication of today's data on inflation, but the British stock index FTSE rose, indicating the favorable impact of slowing inflation on the growth of the British economy. Yet the main risk for the UK economy remains Brexit.
For today (at 12:30 GMT) it is planned to publish important data from the US - inflation indicators for July (retail sales), as well as import-export price indices.
High level of retail sales will strengthen the US dollar. Forecast: + 0.4% (against -0.2% in June).
The weak values of the indicators will put pressure on the dollar, which is now recovering in the foreign exchange market after it became known that the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un decided not to attack Guam after consulting with the military command. This was also facilitated by China's decision to support the sanctions against Pyongyang imposed by the United States.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The pair GBP / USD broke through the important short-term support levels of 1.3000 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2960 (EMA50 on the daily chart, the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart) and is rapidly declining to the key support level 1.2860 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Break of this level will speak about the completion of the upward correction and will strengthen the risks of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.
The alternative scenario is connected with the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the level of 1.3000 and the resumption of growth. The closest target in this case will be resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next target.
So far, the downward trend is dominating, as evidenced by the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts turned to short positions.
Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2800
Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2850. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2815, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460
150817-_GU-_H4.png 150817-_UJ-_Daily.png
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Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
XAG / USD: demand for precious metals declined

16/08/2017


Current dynamics


After the tension in relations between North Korea and the United States declined and against the background of positive data on retail sales received from the US, the dollar regains its positions in the foreign exchange market, and the demand for safe haven assets, including precious metals, is declining.

A few hours after China supported sanctions against Pyongyang imposed by the United States, North Korea refused to threaten to attack the United States.

As reported yesterday by the US Department of Commerce, July data on retail sales exceeded expectations, an increase of 0.6% against the forecast (0.4%). Data on retail sales supported the further strengthening of the dollar and encouraged the buyers of the dollar, putting on its further growth.

Today, the focus of traders will be the publication (18:00 GMT) of the protocol from the July Fed meeting to understand the prospects for monetary policy in the US.

In recent weeks, Fed officials have talked about the weakness of inflation and uncertainty in fiscal policy. Published on Friday, inflation data increased fears that the price dynamics did not meet the expectations of the Fed. The consumer price index (CPI) in July rose by 0.1% compared to June, and by 1.7% compared to July of the previous year (the target level of annual inflation established by the Federal Reserve is 2%).

The protocols, apparently, will also contain information on the continuation of the discussion on inflation, which remains weak and, in the opinion of some leaders of the Fed, may become a hindrance to further tightening of monetary policy in the US.

This year, the Fed will hold three more meetings devoted to monetary policy: September 19 - 20, October 31 - November 1, and December 12 - 13. After the September and December meetings, the Fed will publish its new economic forecasts, while Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will hold a press conference.

According to the CME Group, investors are taking into account the 53% chance of raising the Fed's interest rates in the price this year. Before the release of data on retail sales, they estimated such a probability of 37%.

As is known, in the conditions of increase in the rate the price for precious metals, including silver, falls, as the cost of its acquisition and storage is growing.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

The pair XAG / USD was unable to develop an uptrend above the resistance level of 17.22 (August highs and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). Having broken the key level 17.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), XAG / USD is falling deeper into the descending channel on the daily chart.

At the moment, XAG / USD is trading at the support level of 16.58 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart). A break of this level will signal the continuation of the downward movement.

While XAG / USD is below the level of 17.00, the downside dynamics prevails.

In case of breakdown of the local support level of 16.12 (August lows), the pair XAG / USD will go into the downward channel on the daily chart towards its lower boundary with the targets of 15.60, 14.90, 14.30 (July lows), 13.65 (minimum of the global wave of the pair XAG / USD decline September 2012).

Support levels: 16.58, 16.45, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30, 13.65

Levels of resistance: 16.80, 17.00, 17.22


Trading scenarios


Sell Stop 16.55. Stop-Loss 16.70. Take-Profit 16.45, 16.38, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30

Buy Stop 16.70. Stop-Loss 16.55. Take-Profit 16.80, 17.00, 17.22







*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
GBP/USD: revenue growth lags behind inflation

17/08/2017

Current dynamics



As follows from yesterday's July minutes of the Fed meeting, there is no consensus among US central bank executives about further interest rate hikes. Slowing inflation forced some Fed officials to propose to refrain from further raising rates. "In the current conditions, the Fed can show patience", the protocols say. Earlier, the Fed planned to raise rates three times this year, but the protocols published on Wednesday make it doubtful.

After the publication of the minutes, the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The index of the US dollar, WSJ, estimating the value of the dollar against 16 other major world currencies, fell by 0.4%, to 86.33.

Nevertheless, today the dollar is recovering its positions during the European trading session. This applies to the pair GBP / USD, which is declining after the publication of data on retail sales in the UK for July. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), presented today at the beginning of the European session, retail sales growth in the UK in July was modest (+ 0.3% vs. +0.2 forecast). The estimation of sales growth for June was reduced to 0.3% from 0.6%. In annual terms, growth was also modest (+ 1.3% vs. + 1.4%, according to the forecast).

The British economy, largely dependent on domestic consumption, grew by just 0.3% in the second quarter (+ 0.2% in the first quarter).

According to data published earlier this week, real British salaries in June declined for the fourth consecutive month. Because of the sharp increase in inflation against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the pound after the referendum on Brexit, the real income growth of the British lags behind inflation, which is confirmed by the almost zero increase in personal expenses of the British and the level of retail sales.

Sales in all categories, except for food and household goods, in comparison with the previous month decreased.

In July, inflation was 2.6% against a nearly four-year high of 2.9% in May, well above the Bank of England's target of 2%.

We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decline to 240,000 versus 244,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the dollar. If the data is confirmed or better, the dollar will receive additional support.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Since the beginning of August, the GBP / USD pair is actively declining. On the daily chart, GBP / USD fell back to the key support level of 1.2860 (EMA200). Downward dynamics prevails. Breakdown of this level will strengthen the risk of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastic daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.

An alternative scenario relates to the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the level of 1.2980 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts) and the resumption of growth. The closest target in this case will be the resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next growth target.

Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2800

Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460


Trading scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2850. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2815, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365

Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460







*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
EUR/USD: The ECB is concerned about the strengthening of the euro

18/08/2017

Current dynamics


Despite the decline in the dollar, the pair EUR / USD remains under pressure (so far in the short term). Published on Thursday, the minutes of the July meeting of the ECB pointed out that the central bank is concerned about the strengthening of the single European currency this year.

"There were fears about the risk of excessive growth of the euro in the future", - so it was said in the minutes.

The strengthening of the Euro-currency negatively affects the economy of the Eurozone, as it makes European goods less competitive abroad. Weak rates of inflation in the Eurozone also contribute to the ECB's prolonging the stimulus program for the Eurozone economy for at least six months.

As you know, the program QE in the Eurozone ends in December. Despite the fact that the Eurozone economy shows signs of stable growth, which is also due to the ECB, which pursues an extra soft monetary policy, inflation is still far below the target level of the ECB just below 2.0%.

At the same time, the dollar also remains under pressure after the minutes published on Wednesday from the July Fed meeting. Investors continue to assess the prospects for an increase in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate in December with a probability of below 40%.

The leadership of the US central bank still can not unanimously decide to raise rates in conditions of slow inflation. And this is a negative factor for the dollar.

Thus, the EUR / USD pair is currently in the grip of the need to maintain a low interest rate in the Eurozone and the Fed's hesitancy in the matter of monetary policy, which makes both currencies vulnerable from this point of view.

The US dollar, meanwhile, declined during the Asian session and at the beginning of the European session.

If we consider that today is the last trading day of the week, then in the second half of the US session, we should expect some strengthening of the US currency against the background of closing short positions on the dollar and fixing profits.

The news background is calm today. Volatility may intensify at the beginning of the US trading session, when at 12:30 (GMT) the consumer price index (CPI) in Canada (for July) is published.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

The pair EUR / USD is in a downward correction short-term trend since the beginning of August, when strong data was published from the US labor market.

Repeated attempts to test the support level 1.1690 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart) have not yet led to its breakdown.

If the EUR / USD decline continues, the breakdown of the support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on 4-hour and weekly charts) will strengthen the risks of a return to the downtrend.

However, only in case of breakdown of the support level 1.1150 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will EUR/USD return to a downtrend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics do not give a clear signal.

In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the local resistance level 1.1780 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline from 1.3900), the EUR / USD is likely to strengthen further. The growth targets will be the levels of 1.1835, 1.1890 (the highs of the year), 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2180 (50% Fibonacci level).

Support levels: 1.1690, 1.1630

Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1835, 1.1890, 1.1910, 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2180


Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1785. Take-Profit 1.1690, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1550

Buy Stop 1.1785. Stop-Loss 1.1710. Take-Profit 1.1835, 1.1890, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2180







*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
DJIA: the decline continues

21/08/2017

Current dynamics


After Thursday, Wal-Mart Stores and Cisco Systems reported on the results, their shares fell significantly, pulling the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which dropped 1.2% (274 points) to 21751 points. This was the most significant decline since May 2017. The shares of all 30 companies, traded in DJIA, and all 11 main sectors in the S & P500 index fell.

A portion of the disappointing financial statements of companies, which include large retailers and giants of the technology sector, as well as the terrorist attack in Spain, provoked the strongest intraday drop in the major US stock indices, which was the second this month.

On Monday, there is a continued decline in major US stock indexes, including DJIA. Investors' attention this week will be focused on comments by representatives of world central banks, including Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi.

In general, the negative mood of investors, the tendency to exit from risky assets and the withdrawal of funds into safe assets prevail. Thus, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose to 2.202% from 2.196%, gold quotes also remain propped up after last Friday the price of gold exceeded the annual maximum and the mark of 1300.00 dollars per ounce for a short time.

If today the decline in indices continues, it will be the third consecutive week of falling indices. The news background today for the US stock market, in general, is neutral.

Low trading volumes and investor caution on the eve of the Jackson Hole conference increase the likelihood of a short-term spike in volatility and a return of the price to the current range.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Having broken through the important short-term support levels 21825.0 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 21755.0 (EMA200), DJIA found today support at the level of 21650.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).

The predominant negative short-term dynamics. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

Probably the continuation of the correction decrease to the level of support 21500.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

In case of resumption of growth and consolidation above the level of 21825.0 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), the DJIA will move towards the recent absolute maximum near the level of 22177.0.

If the decline continues, then after the breakdown of the support level of 21500.0, the target may be the support level of 20630.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the level Fibonacci 0% is near the mark of 22000.0). Through the level 20630.0 also passes EMA200 on the daily chart. This level, therefore, is key to the bullish trend of DJIA.

Support levels: 21710.0, 21650.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20630.0

Resistance levels: 21770.0, 21840.0, 21950.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0


Trading Scenarios


Buy Stop 21785.0. Stop-Loss 21600.0. Take-Profit 21825.0, 21950.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0

Sell Stop 21600.0. Stop-Loss 21785.0. Take-Profit 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20630.0






*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
USD/CAD: the US dollar is recovering

22/08/2017

Current dynamics


During today's Asian session and at the beginning of the European session, the US dollar is restoring its positions in the foreign exchange market. In recent days, both domestic political uncertainty in the US, as well as ambiguous US economic indicators, have reduced the hopes of investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar that the Federal Reserve will implement the third rate hike this year. According to interest rate futures, on Monday, market participants assessed the likelihood of further increases in US Fed rates this year at 40% versus 43% last month.

From 24 to 26 August in Jackson Hole (USA) will host an annual economic conference, organized by the Fed, which will address the heads of the world's largest central banks. In the center of attention – is the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. She is expected to point out how the management of the central bank assesses the situation in the country's economy, and what are the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. If she makes any hints about the possibility of another interest rate hike by the end of the year, despite the low inflation in the US, the dollar will significantly strengthen in the foreign exchange market.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar on Monday rose slightly against the US dollar, which was down against the major currencies. The strengthening of the Canadian currency was also due to the reduction in the difference in the yields of government bonds of Canada and the United States.

Today, the US dollar is growing, restoring positions, which is also reflected in the growth of USD / CAD. Today its dynamics can be affected by the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on retail sales in Canada for June.

The index is published monthly by Statistics Canada and estimates the total amount of retail sales. This index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for CAD, the decline in the index will negatively affect CAD.

A slight, almost zero, growth is expected (+ 0.3% vs. + 0.6% in May). If the data is even weaker, the Canadian dollar will fall in the foreign exchange market, including the USD / CAD pair.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Late last month, the pair USD / CAD reached its next annual low near support level 1.2420 and returned to the range located between 1.2490 (EMA200) and 1.2740 (EMA144 on the weekly chart, Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global ascending Trend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700). Near the level of 1.2740 also passes the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart.

In case of consolidation above the level of 1.2635 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the USD / CAD growth will resume with the target of 1.2740. A more distant goal is the level of 1.3120 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, EMA200 on the daily chart and the December lows).

The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and weekly charts turned to long positions.

If the pair continues to decline, the USD / CAD will go to support level 1.2490 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The breakdown of support levels 1.2170 (50% Fibonacci level), 1.2030 (EMA200 on the monthly chart) will finally break the long-term bullish trend of the pair USD / CAD, which began in September 2012.

Support levels: 1.2565, 1.2490, 1.2420, 1.2170, 1.2030

Resistance levels: 1.2605, 1.2635, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2785, 1.2800, 1.2860, 1.2920, 1.3015, 1.3120, 1.3200


Trading Scenarios


Buy Stop 1.2610. Stop-Loss 1.2565. Take-Profit 1.2635, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2785, 1.2800, 1.2860, 1.2920 Sell Stop 1.2565. Stop-Loss 1.2610. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2400, 1.2170







*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
NZD/USD: New Zealand economic growth forecasts revised

23/08/2017

Current dynamics


According to a report published on Tuesday on economic and financial conditions in New Zealand, forecasts for the growth of the New Zealand economy were revised with a slight decrease.

Finance Minister Stephen Joyce said that in the next four years, the average growth rate of New Zealand's GDP could reach 3%, whereas earlier it was forecasted an average annual growth rate of 3.1%.

The New Zealand dollar is actively declining since the beginning of August. Over the past two days, the NZD / USD pair has declined by about 100 points or by 1.3%.

This is also promoted by the growth of quotations of the US dollar on the eve of the economic conference in Jackson Hole, which will be held on August 24-26. The conference will feature the heads of the world's leading central banks. From the chairman of the Fed, Janet Yellen is waiting for statements in favor of a third increase in interest rates in the US for the current year.

The dollar fell more than 7% this year, it will have a significant growth space if the Fed's rhetoric points to their tendency to tighten monetary and credit policy.

The growth of the US dollar is also facilitated by the fact that investors are less concerned about the tensions between the US and North Korea, as well as political uncertainty in Washington. Yesterday's comments by Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, and Mitch McConnell, leader of the republican majority in the Senate, that the tax reform and raising the public debt limit will be implemented without difficulty, also contribute to improving investor sentiment towards the US currency.

Today (22:45 GMT) important data on New Zealand's foreign trade balance are published. A slight increase in the balance deficit in July (-200 million New Zealand dollars) is expected, which should negatively affect the New Zealand dollar with the confirmation of the forecast. Any change in the state of the foreign trade balance of New Zealand will support the New Zealand currency.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

The pair NZD / USD broke through important short-term support levels of 0.7325 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7300 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and currently trades at the support level of 0.7240 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global fall wave Pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers, signaling a strong negative impulse.

While NZD / USD is trading above the support level of 0.7165 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward dynamics is maintained. In case of breakdown at the level of 0.7165, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.

The alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the level of 0.7325 and the resumption of growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart). Meanwhile, it is too early to talk about long positions on the NZD / USD pair. Only a breakdown at 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend.

Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7165

Resistance levels: 0.7255, 0.7300, 0.7325, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550


Trading scenarios


Sell Stop 0.7205. Stop-Loss 0.7255. Take-Profit 0.7165

Buy Stop 0.7255. Stop-Loss 0.7205. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7325, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550







*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
Brent: prices stabilized in the range

24/08/2017

Current dynamics


On Thursday, oil prices showed a slight decrease, without leaving the range between the levels of 53.00, 51.00 dollars per barrel of Brent crude oil. A wider range is located between the levels of 53.40, 50.0 dollars per barrel, in which Brent crude is traded last month.

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Ministry reported a drop in commercial oil and gasoline reserves in the country. Thus, crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels (forecast was -3.375 million barrels), gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels last week (the forecast was 500,000 barrels). As a result, oil prices rose on Wednesday. Oil futures on the NYMEX closed up by 1.21% at $ 48.41 per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the end of yesterday's trading day was close to $ 52.20 per barrel, which is about $ 1.0 higher than the previous closing price.

Nevertheless, significant price increases are not observed, despite the risks of interruptions in the work of US refineries associated with the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, and the reduction in oil and oil products in the United States.

Prospects of growth in oil production in the US have a negative impact on oil prices. World oil supply in July, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), rose by 520,000 barrels a day, even despite the arrangements in OPEC. Growth in the supply of oil has been observed for 3 consecutive months.

The activity of US oil companies is growing, significantly offsetting OPEC's efforts to reduce oil production and exports.

Today and tomorrow, investors will follow the speeches of the leaders of the Fed and the ECB at a conference in Jackson Hole on the plans of the central banks to tighten monetary policy. If Janet Yellen signals the markets about the possibility of another increase in the interest rate this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. Commodity prices, including oil, will come under pressure in this case.

On Friday at 5:00 pm (GMT), Baker Hughes, the oil service company, will publish a weekly report on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the US oil sector and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. If the number of installations increases again, this will also negatively affect oil prices.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

The price for Brent crude was in the range between levels of 53.40, 50.0 dollars per barrel in August. Despite today's decline, the price keeps positive dynamics above the key support levels of 50.70 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 50.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts again moved to the side of buyers.

If the growth continues, the target will be 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 53.40 (August highs), 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the upper bound of the rising channel on the daily chart).

The scenario for the decline involves a breakdown at the level of 50.70. The targets then will be support levels of 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). A more distant target is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower border of the descending channel on the weekly chart), which increases the risks of price return in the bearish trend.

Support levels: 51.30, 50.90, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70

Resistance levels: 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.70


Trading Scenarios


Sell by the market. Stop-Loss 52.35. Take-Profit 51.30, 50.90, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20

Buy Stop 52.35. Stop-Loss 51.70. Take-Profit 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.75







*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 

Tifia FX

TifiaFx Representative
EuroStoxx50: Stabilization before the speech of the head of the ECB

25/08/2017


Market participants took a wait-and-see approach on the eve of the Fed Chairman's statement (14:00 GMT) and the ECB head (19:00 GMT).

As follows from the minutes of the ECB meeting of July 20 published last week, the ECB's Governing Council is alarmed by the current strength of the euro. It is likely that the ECB will not rush to tighten the policy. Mario Draghi will try not to disturb the markets and is likely to favor the extension of the QE program and will be concerned about the high cost of the euro. In this case, the European indices will receive support and an incentive to resume growth.

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Levels of support and resistance

Since May, when the EuroStoxx50 index reached its annual maximum near the 3680.0 mark, a downward correction began. The EuroStoxx50 index fell to support level 3440.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the downward correction to the wave of growth since July 2016 and from the level of 2675.0).

In case of breakdown of the level 3440.0, the EuroSTOXX50 index will go to the key support level of 3400.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Breakdown of this level increases the risks of further decline and breakdown of the bullish trend.

The reduction targets then can be support levels 3295.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 3265.0 (EMA200, EMA144 on the weekly chart).

The negative dynamics prevails. The European stock indexes are significantly influenced by the expectation of an early curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone, which ends in December. Preferred short positions, until the situation on this issue is clarified, and the QE program will not be extended.

Support levels: 3440.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3295.0, 3265.0

Resistance levels: 3482.0, 3500.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0


Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 3430.0. Stop-Loss 3480.0. Take-Profit 3390.0, 3325.0, 3295.0, 3265.0

Buy Stop 3480.0. Stop-Loss 3430.0. Take-Profit 3550.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0






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