Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Gold Price Aims More Gains, Crude Oil Price Could Resume Decline

Gold price is showing positive signs above the $1,800 level. Crude oil price is struggling below $80 and might resume its decline.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price faced resistance near $1,832 and corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,808 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price started a fresh decline from the $82.00 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $79.75 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price attempted an upside break above the $1,825 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price even cleared the $1,830 level, but the bears were active near the $1,832 zone.

A high was formed near $1,833 and the price started a fresh decline. There was a clear move below the $1,810 and $1,805 support levels. The price traded as low as $1,797 and recently started a fresh increase.

Gold Price Hourly Chart

There was a clear move above the $1,805 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,833 swing high to $1,798 swing low.

Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,808 on the hourly chart of gold. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the $1,820 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,833 swing high to $1,798 swing low.

The next key hurdle is near the $1,832 level, above which it could even test $1,850. A clear upside break above the $1,850 resistance could send the price towards $1,880.

An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,808 level. The next major support is near the $1,800 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,765 support zone.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

 

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GBP/USD and USD/CAD 2023 Chart Outlook

GBP/USD started a downside correction from 1.2450. USD/CAD is signaling a fresh decline towards the 1.3300 and 1.3200 support levels.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

1. The British Pound struggled to clear the 1.2420 and 1.2450 resistance levels.
2. Earlier, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.1700 on the daily chart of GBP/USD.
3. USD/CAD is facing a strong resistance near the 1.3700 zone.
4. It traded below a key contracting triangle with support near 1.3600 on the daily chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a base above the 1.0350, the British Pound started a steady increase against the US Dollar. GBP/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.1100 and 1.1500 resistance levels.

There was a move above the 1.2000 resistance and the 50-day simple moving average. During the increase, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.1700 on the daily chart of GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

The pair even moved above the 1.2220 level and traded as high as 1.2446 on FXOpen. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 1.2350 level.

Recently, there was a move below the 1.2220 and 1.2200 support levels. On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.1950 area. It is near the 23.5% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0341 swing low to 1.2466 high.

The next major support is near the 1.1800 level. If there is a break below 1.1800, the pair could extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.1400 level. It coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0341 swing low to 1.2466 high

Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.1200 support. An immediate resistance is near the 1.2200 level. The next resistance is near the 1.2450 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.2450 zone, the pair could rise towards 1.2600. The next key resistance could be 1.3000.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

 

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 03rd JAN 2023

BTCUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $16372

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of $16372 on 30th Dec, the prices started to correct upwards against the US dollar and are now ranging above the $16600 handle in the European trading session today.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near the support of the channel in the weekly time frame indicating a bullish trend.

We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above the $16372 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 16655 and an intraday high of 16781 in the Asian trading session today.

The price is forming an ascending channel with the current support of $16690 at which the price crosses the 9-day moving average.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 58.47 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Some of the major technical Indicators are giving a BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 17500 and 18500.

The average true range is indicating HIGH market volatility with a mild bullish momentum.

1. Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $16372
2. The average directional index is indicating a NEUTRAL level
3. The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $16752
4. The short term range is mildly bullish

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $16372

We can now see that the price of bitcoin is moving in the correction phase after the recent decline below the $16500 level. The immediate targets are $17500 and $18500 in the short-term range.

Once the price of bitcoin will touch $18000, we are expecting a rally into the markets towards the $20000 level.

We can see the formation of the bullish trend reversal pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA50 and AMA100 in the 1-hour time frame.

Any dips from the current levels remain well supported above the $16500 handle as the bitcoin price continues to gain traction against the US dollar.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $16662 which is a pivot point, and at $16723 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 16765 and Fibonacci resistance level of 16773 after which the path towards 17000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 0.08% by 13.10$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 11.564 billion. We can see an increase of 5.89% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin’s price is expected to enter into a consolidation phase below the $17000 level. As the market liquidity increases, we will see the price upticking towards the $18000 handle.

As of now, the moves are expected to be in a narrow range between the $16000 and $17500 levels.

The daily RSI is printing at 47 which indicates a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin and the possibility of a shift towards the consolidation/correction phase for a short term in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone at $17096 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 4-week low, and at $17333 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%.

The weekly outlook is projected at $17500 with a consolidation zone of $17000.

Technical Indicators:

The MACD (12,26): is at 20.50 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index, CCI (14): is at 73.18 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change, ROC: is at 0.048 indicating a BUY

The Bull/bear power (13): is at 31.92 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

British Pound crashes against the US Dollar on first working day of 2023

Today represents the very first full working day of 2023 across many markets in the Western World, and already the currency markets have got off to a dramatic start.

The British Pound, which made a rebound at the end of last year from its months-long decline in value, has once again taken a dive.

As the markets opened this morning, the British Pound dropped in value against the US Dollar, diving from 1.21 against the US Dollar at 7.30am UK time, to 1.19 against the US Dollar just 2 hours later.

This sudden collapse in value has almost wiped out the gains made by the Pound during the final weeks of 2022, which saw the Pound begin to climb back up against the US Dollar from its lowly 1.08 value in mid to late September when it 'bottomed out' against the US Dollar and many market analysts were looking at the possibility of parity between the two major currencies.

Had that taken place, it would have represented an historic moment because the Pound has been the most valuable currency in the world since the mid 1920s!

It did not, however, reach anywhere near parity with the US Dollar and the Pound began to rise in value once again during November and December.

Today's crash in value represents the Pound's lowest point in over two months, which happened suddenly this morning.

Volatility in the currency markets used to be a very rare thing, and for over two decades until 2020, there was very little movement on the major currencies to the extent that entire trading strategies were built on the basis of low volatility.

Now, with rampant inflation across many Western markets, and fears of the UK's economic policy for the year being a damp squib, there was a strong demand for the US Dollar this morning as the markets opened, resulting in this sudden gulf in values.

It appears that despite the rollercoaster ride that occurred in 2022, there is still room for a surprise sudden movement in the major currency markets.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD and USD/CHF 2023 Chart Outlook

EUR/USD gained pace above the 1.0200 resistance zone. USD/CHF is declining and remains at a risk of more losses below the 0.9200 support.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.0200 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9880 on the daily chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a fresh decline below the 0.9750 and 0.9400 support levels.
• There was a break below a key rising channel with support near 0.9840 on the daily chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This week, the Euro started a steady increase from the 0.9600 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace above the 1.0000 level to move into a bullish zone.

The pair even climbed above the 1.0200 resistance and settled above the 50-day simple moving average. During the increase, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9880 on the daily chart of EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Moreover, there was a move above the 1.0500 level. It traded as high as 1.0735 on FXOpen and is currently consolidating gains. There was a move below the 1.0650 level. The pair traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0223 swing low to 1.0735 high.

On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0500 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0223 swing low to 1.0735 high is also near the 1.0500 zone.

The next major support is near the 1.0220 level. A downside break below the 1.0220 support could start another decline towards the 1.0000 handle.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.0750 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0800 level. A clear move above the 1.0800 resistance zone could set the pace for a larger increase towards 1.1000. The next major resistance is near the 1.1200 zone.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Oil price on the backfoot in early 2023 despite high demand

If the year 2022 can be remembered for any recurring feature in terms of demand for commonly traded commodities, it can be remembered as a year of high energy prices across many Western countries, with oil being one of the most prized consumable commodities of the year.

In the summer of 2022, Fuel stations across Europe and the United Kingdom were charging in excess of 2 euros / 2 pounds for a liter of unleaded fuel for vehicles, and energy costs for domestic heating, reliant on gas or oil, were soaring, especially in the United Kingdom where approximately 30 energy companies became insolvent and left the market in late 2021, resulting in far less competition at a time during which the raw material itself was in huge demand for geopolitical reasons.

Demand remains very high for crude oil, and as many European nations continue to enforce draconian sanctions on one of the world's largest suppliers of oil - the Russian Federation - prices have been volatile throughout the last 12 months.

Interestingly, however, Brent Crude Oil (WTI) started the year 2023 in a stagnant position.

Indeed, Brent Crude Oil futures for February 2023 settlement are 1.86% down compared to the end of December and currently valued at approximately $78.1 per barrel.

Stocks in 'big oil' companies are still quite strong, however, as publicly listed North American oil giantr ExxonMobil is reportedly set to report $56 billion in profit for 2022, marking the highest number ever achieved by a non-state-owned company and almost triple its 2021 result.

Whether these companies are riding on their bonanza year which 2022 turned out to be is yet to be seen, as it is possible that investors may view these massive profits with caution if 2023's initial few weeks does not demonstrate the same level of high prices as 2022 did.

If the natural gas market is any indicator of the performance of other commodities which are equally affected by the same geopolitical constraints, it is worth noting that natural gas prices are now back down to the level they were at this time a year ago, before the war started and before any sanctions on Russian gas companies were imposed which made it impossible for customers in Europe to pay Russian suppliers for gas, resulting in curtailing of supply.

It appears that those which owe money are now being chased, and just recently a Russian court approved an order that the assets of German industrial gas firm Linde worth $500 million be frozen at the request of a Gazprom-led joint venture, citing unfulfilled commitments.

There is a 'new normal' now that the markets are beginning to adjust to.

This morning, during the Asian trading session, Brent Crude oil crept back up slightly to the $79 per barrel mark, but, apart from a dip to $76 per barrel in mid-December, today's value is the lowest it has been since December 2021, before all of the sanctions began.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 05th JAN, 2023

ETHUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $1181

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1181 on 30th Dec, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar moving into a consolidation channel above the $1200 handle today in the European trading session.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the weekly time frame.

We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above the $1181 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1251 and moving into a consolidation channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1254 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1257 after which the path towards 1300 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 69.10 indicating a STRONG demand for Ether and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

The average directional index is indicating a NEUTRAL level, which means that the price is expected to remain under consolidation in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal at the current market levels of $1250.

ETH is now trading Above its 100 hourly simple and 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1181 mark
• The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
• ETH continues to remain above the $1250 levels
• The average true range is indicating HIGH market volatility

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

 

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD 2023 Chart Outlook

AUD/USD started a decent increase in Oct 2022 and climbed above 0.6500. Similarly, NZD/USD was able to clear the 0.6000 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar gained pace above the 0.6400 and 0.6500 levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6840 on the daily chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD also started a steady increase above the 0.6000 and 0.6200 levels.
• There was a clear move above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6270 on the daily chart.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

In Oct 2022, the Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6200 zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair remained well bid and started a fresh increase above the 0.6400 resistance zone.

The pair climbed higher steadily above the 0.6500 level, but it remained below the 50-day simple moving average. There was a clear move above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last major decline from the 0.7145 high to 0.6170 swing low.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

However, there are many resistances forming on the upside near the 0.6830 and 0.6850 levels. More importantly, the 50-day simple moving average is positioned near the 0.6850 level.

There is also a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6840 on the daily chart of AUD/USD. Only a successful daily close above 0.6850 might start a strong recovery towards the 0.7150 level.

The 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the last major decline from the 0.7145 high to 0.6170 swing low is also near the 0.7150 level. Any more gains might send the pair towards the 0.7200 level.

On the downside, the key supports are 0.6720 and 0.6680, below which the pair may perhaps decline extend its decline towards the 0.6600 and 0.6550 levels. Any more losses might call for a move towards the 0.6400 level.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

 

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Watch FXOpen's January 2 - 6 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• What to expect in stock market in 2023
• British pound crashes against USD
• USD rally short-lived
• Gold starts 2023 with strong growth

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.




FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Aims Higher

GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2100 zone. GBP/JPY is also rising and might gain pace if it clears the 160.20 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound is showing positive signs above 1.2000 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY started a fresh increase above the 158.50 resistance zone.
• There is a key contracting triangle is forming with resistance near 160.00 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound found support near the 1.1840 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base and started a steady recovery wave above the 1.2000 level.

There was a clear move above the 1.2050 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. During the increase, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

The pair even cleared the 1.2100 resistance. A high is formed near 1.2136 on FXOpen and the pair started a consolidation phase.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.2140 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2200 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.2250. An upside break above 1.2250 might start a fresh increase towards 1.2320. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.2400 or even 1.2500.

An immediate support is near the 1.2080. The next major support is near the 1.2065 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1841 swing low to 1.2136 high.

If there is a break below the 1.2065 support, the pair could test the 1.2050 support. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1841 swing low to 1.2136 high. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.1820.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.