Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

EURUSD breaks bear flag pattern, GU builds bullish zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke the bear flag chart pattern (dotted purple) as price heads lower to the Fibonacci targets. For the moment the wave count has been labeled as a continuation of wave C (blue). The alternative is a wave 3 if price manages to break below the 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



The EUR/USD breaks another support trend line (purple) and is building a decline as part of a wave 5 (orange). The blue line is a strong bottom from the 4 hour chart which could act as a bouncing spot.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has respected the resistance level (orange) at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. All of the Fibonacci levels and resistance trend lines offer a strong resistance zone. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the current wave count.

1 hour



The GBP/USD built a bullish ABC zigzag (blue) yesterday. Price would need to break below support (green) for a potential bearish breakout. A break above resistance could still see price struggle at the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke above the resistance trend line (orange dotted) but the breakout has been slow so far. A potential USD/JPY break above the 161.8% Fibonacci target favors a wave 3 (purple) whereas a bearish break below the support trend line (blue) makes a wave C (pink) more likely.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is in a slightly bullish angled channel between support (blue) and resistance (orange). The recent pullback could be a wave 1-2 (grey) pullback as long price does not break below the origin of wave 1.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
USD gains versus EUR and JPY but loses against GBP

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is showing strong bearish candles as it approaches a horizontal support level (blue). The alternative is a wave 3 if price manages to break below this support and the 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke another bear flag (dotted green) and is building a continuation as part of a wave 5 (orange). The blue line is a strong bottom from the 4 hour chart which could act as a bouncing spot.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has broken the resistance levels (dotted) and price moved up towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A break above the long-term resistance trend line (red) and the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the current wave count where a bigger bearish ABC (pink) is expected.

1 hour



The GBP/USD built a bearish ABC zigzag (blue) yesterday. Price then broke above the resistance trend line (orange dotted) and showed bullish momentum. For the moment this has been marked as a wave A (grey). A break of the support trend line invalidates the ABC (grey) within waves Y (blue, green) of wave B (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke above both resistance trend lines (dotted) and is heading towards the 200% Fibonacci level and potentially higher. This makes it more likely that a wave 3 (purple) is developing rather than a wave C (pink), because wave C's tend to equal 100% of wave A with 61.8% on the lower end of the range and 161.8% on the higher end.

1 hour



The USD/JPY broke above both resistance trend lines (dotted) and the bullish breakout is moving higher in a trend channel (blue). Price is building a wave 3 (grey) and typically price will move up to at least the 161.8% Fibonacci target before building a wave 4.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Key triangles visible on 3 major Forex pairs

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke below the horizontal support (dotted blue) as the bearish channel maintains its momentum to the 100% Fibonacci level. Wave C corrections are typically equal to the length of wave A so a break below the 100% Fib target increases the likelihood of a potential wave 3. An ABC completion is confirmed once price manages to break above the channel.

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to have completed a wave 5 (purple) within a wave 3 (grey). Price is most likely making a wave 4 (grey) retracement as long as price stays below the outer trend line (red). A break below the small support trend line (solid green) could spark the bearish breakout for wave 5 (orange).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has made a potential hook back to the long-term resistance trend line (red) and 78.6% Fibonacci level. A break above the long-term resistance trend line (red) and the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the current wave count where a bigger bearish ABC (pink) is expected. A break below the inner support trend line (green) confirms the development of an ABC whereas a break below the outer support trend line (dark green) makes a reversal and a 123 more likely.

1 hour



The GBP/USD built a bearish ABC zigzag (blue) yesterday. Price then broke above the resistance trend line (orange dotted) and showed bullish momentum. For the moment this has been marked as a wave A (grey). A break of the support trend line invalidates the ABC (grey) within waves Y (blue, green) of wave B (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is building a small triangle above the broke resistance levels (dotted lines). A break above the 200% Fibonacci level could see price make a breakout towards the next Fib.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is in a triangle. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 invalidates the wave 4 (grey) count. A break above it could see the extension of wave 5 (grey).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Decisive movements for EURUSD downtrend and GBPUSD triangle

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is building another bear flag chart pattern (orange) within the downtrend channel (red/green). Wave C (blue( corrections are typically equal to the length of wave A so a break below the 100% Fib target increases the likelihood of a potential wave 3 (orange).

1 hour



The EUR/USD is most likely building a wave 4 (grey) retracement as long as price stays below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below the small support trend line (solid green) could spark the bearish breakout for wave 5 (orange).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a contracting triangle between support (green) and resistance (red). A break above the long-term resistance trend line (red) and the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the current wave count where a bigger bearish ABC (pink) is expected. A break below the inner support trend line (green) confirms the development of an ABC whereas a break below the outer support trend line (dark green) makes a reversal and a 123 (purple) more likely.

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke the triangle on Friday to the down side (dotted green). Price is showing bearish momentum which can be explained by a 3rd wave (green) or C wave (orange). A break above the 50% Fibonacci level invalidates a wave 4 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have completed a wave 3 (purple) and is now retracing back as part of a wave 4 (purple). Typical wave 4 retracements are the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. There are also trend lines which are providing extra support (blue lines).

1 hour



The USD/JPY is in a bearish zigzag (orange) which has taken price down to the trend line and 23.6% Fibonacci level.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Major Forex pairs dominated by robust downtrend channels

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is pausing at the 100% Fibonacci level of wave C versus wave A. Wave C (blue) corrections are typically equal to the length of wave A so a break below the 100% Fib target increases the likelihood of a potential wave 3 (purple). A break above the channel does not necessarily mean the end of the downtrend channel as price could expand the sideways corrective (see 1 hour chart).

1 hour



The EUR/USD could be expanding the wave 4 (grey) or wave 4 (green). For the moment the wave 5 (grey) has been marked completed at the double bottom. A break below the support trend line (solid green) could spark the bearish breakout for wave 5 (orange or green). The Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (green) could act as resistance.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is building a contracting triangle between support (green) and resistance (red). A break above the long-term resistance trend line (red) and the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the current wave count where a bigger bearish ABC (pink) or 123 (purple) is expected.

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke a support trend line yesterday (dotted green) to complete a potential wave 5 (blue), which could complete a wave A or wave 1 (green). A break above the inner resistance (red) increases the chance of a retracement within wave 2 (green). A break below the support trend line (olive green) could expand the bearish wave 1 (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have completed a wave 3 (purple) and is now retracing back as part of a wave 4 (purple). Typical wave 4 retracements are the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. A break below the 50% Fib level makes a wave 4 (purple) less likely.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is in a bearish zigzag (orange) which has taken price down to the trend line and 38.2% Fibonacci level.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
EURUSD and USDJPY shallow pullbacks expected, GBPUSD huge momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD downtrend channel (red/green) remains intact and yesterday price broke another bear flag chart pattern (dotted green). Price has now reached the 127.2% Fibonacci target. Both an ABC (blue) or a 123 (purple) are possible but the 123 (purple) becomes more likely as price reaches lower Fibonacci targets especially if price goes beyond the 161.8%.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke the support trend lines (green) and showed an impulsive bearish wave 3 (purple). The current retracement could be part of a wave 4 (purple) which could see resistance confluence at the trend line (red). A break above the 4 vs 3 Fibonacci levels would invalidate wave 4 (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is struggling to find a long-term direction considering the contracting triangle (green/red). Yesterday's bullish price action seems to have strong momentum but price has reached a long-term resistance trend line (red). The wave labels could change depending on the direction of the triangle breakout. A break above the long-term resistance trend line (red) and the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the current wave count where a bigger bearish ABC (pink) or 123 (purple) is expected. A break below support makes an ABC (or 123) more likely.

1 hour



The GBP/USD showed strong bullish momentum after the break of the trend line (dotted orange) via an ABC (blue) as was indicated in yesterday's wave analysis. The bullish momentum would normally suggest a bullish continuation today but price is at a strong resistance level. A bullish break would break the triangle and invalidate the bearish wave count.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have completed a wave 4 (purple) and is now continuing as part of a wave 5 (purple). A break above the resistance trend line (red) would confirm the breakout towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour



The USD/JPY is approaching the Fibonacci retracement levels. A break below the 61.8% Fib would invalidate the 5 wave structure (orange) as wave 4 would retrace into the price territory of wave 1.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
EURUSD, GBPUSD break long-term resistance but with different wave counts

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is testing the resistance trend line of the downtrend channel (red/green). A bullish break, however, does not automatically translate into the end of the downtrend itself (see wave 4 on 1 hour chart). The 123 (purple) becomes more likely than an ABC if price manages to extend beyond the 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



The EUR/USD seems to have completed multiple wave 5s yesterday and price has now broken above a 1 hour resistance trend line (dotted red). The current retracement could be part of a wave 4 (green) which could see resistance confluence (orange box) 38.2% Fib level. A break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 4 vs 3 would make a wave 4 (green) less likely.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD bullish price action had sufficient momentum to break above the long-term resistance trend line (dotted red). The wave count has been changed to a bullish ABC zigzag (pink) reflect the bullish breakout.

1 hour



The GBP/USD strong bullish momentum saw continuation after breaking the trend line. Price could face strong resistance at the confluence of the previous top (red) and 100% Fibonacci target of wave C vs A.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY failed to break above the resistance trend line (red) for a bullish breakout. The wave has been labeled as wave 5 (purple) due to the internal 5 wave structure which is visible on the 1 hour chart. A break of support (blue) would confirm the development of wave 2 (purple) correction. A breakout above the resistance would indicate an expansion of wave 5 (purple).

1 hour



The USD/JPY completed 5 bullish waves within wave 5 (blue). The 5th wave did not break the previous top which is called a "truncated" 5th wave. The current wave count suggests a bearish correction, which would be invalidated if price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 4 vs 3. In that case, the alternative scenario is that the currently marked bearish 123 (brown) would turn into an ABC completing a wave 2 (green) as part of an extended wave 1-2 (green).




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
GBPUSD, USDJPY moving quickly in wave C momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted red) of the downtrend channel. This bullish break is most likely a corrective wave 4 of a lower degree (see 1 hour chart). The 123 (purple) becomes more likely than an ABC if price manages to extend beyond the 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour



The EUR/USD showed choppy and corrective price action yesterday. Price completed an ABC zigzag as expected and could now be expanding the correction. A break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of "4 vs 3" would make a wave 4 (green) less likely. A break below the support trend line (green) increases the chance of a bearish breakout for wave 5 (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD bullish breakout failed to break the horizontal resistance (red). The broken resistance (dotted red) has now turned into a potential support level in the development of wave C (pink).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is in wave 4 retracement as long as price stays above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A more likely bouncing spot is the 38.2% Fib which has confluence with the broken trend line (dotted red), the previous top of wave 3 (grey) and wave A (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is building a contracting triangle chart pattern (red/green). A break of support (green) would confirm the development of wave 2 (purple) correction. A breakout above the resistance (red) would indicate an expansion of wave 5 (blue).

1 hour



The USD/JPY completed 5 bullish waves within wave 5 (blue). The 5th wave did not break the previous top which is called a "truncated" 5th wave unless price manages to break above resistance (red). A break below support (green) confirms the bearish breakout for wave C (blue) and 2 (purple).




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
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