EURUSD Analysis (ongoing thread)

[ForexTus]

Definitely looks like it needs a retrace at least up to the mid section of your two lowest blue lines

 

[Glastonburyk]

EURUSD 20/05/2022 - weekly analysis.

Can see us hitting consolidation or a drop unless we hit a curve ball. Volatility and volume are up.

Currently at the 1.05 and looks like we’ve settled bellow lower trend line but sideways movement through the trend wouldn’t make me bullish.

For me a break and settle above 1.06 would make me bullish bit more likely to go sideways to hit 1.06 or a drop through 1.04.

Fundamental points going forward:

- “Comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials failed to help the euro on Wednesday as the sharp decline witnessed in global equity indexes allowed safe-haven flows to dominate the financial markets.”
- “In case the ECB statement suggests that policymakers see the need for successive rate hikes amid inflation fears, the pair could regain its traction. “
- “Risk perception should remain the primary driver of the pair's action. The US economic docket will feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Survey. Unless these data trigger a rebound in US stocks, the greenback should manage to preserve its strength.”

ECB speech of Friday is one to watch, can’t see any call for upside.

Where do you think EURUSD is going?View attachment 76940

Great short set up has presented

 

[momo3HC]

Let’s see what this week’s NFP will cause this time.

 

[ForexTus]

Great short set up has presented

Think so too, USD going strong again it seems

 

[ForexViking]

06/06/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

“Overheating inflation and slowing economic growth are still the main market drivers.” For me I’m still feeling bearish, not much has changed in my outlook of the pair long term.

So I’m going to discuss some macro sentiments I have:

• High inflation: EUR at 7% and USD at 8%. Last time we saw rates like this was before the last financial crisis and we’re currently surpassed that. We’re looking at numbers we haven’t seen since the 80’s.
• Energy crisis: Europe to faze out RUS oil by end of year and other forms of energy in general. Already problems before the Ukraine invasion.
• Stock market: S&P 500 is running above average. Most stocks are probably overvalued. A lot of retail money has come in over the last few years, lots of leverage.
• House prices: To high compared to wages. This is still rattling through my head. 2 years pent up sales from the pandemic is obvious but we’ve been going in this direction for a while. I can only talk about where I live but in the uk people with 5% mortgages and “help to buy” new builds that were sold at higher prices might feel the squeeze as the economy tightens.
• Low wages: Self explanatory, look at any chart. My local town, pub, restaurant, nightclub… these places should be packed after two years of lockdown but no one is out, everyone is worried about money.
• Low unemployment rate: A low unemployment rate isn’t necessarily a good thing. Usually means people are feeling the pinch and scrambling. We’ve seen this before other recessions.

All in all you can probably see where I’m going with this… “Big ba-da boom.” For me the EUR will take the hardest punches due slow economic recovery, war in Ukraine and energy crisis though the U.S. may sneeze first.

What do you guys think? Am I too doom and gloom?

 

[TareqS]

The pair had a bullish correction and found its resistance around 1.07700. So far, the level has been working as a level of resistance even at the weekly chart. A bearish reversal pattern may attract the sellers again and drive the price towards the downside.

 

[sebking1986]

I think we are heading back into a gap left on the 4h before we see the next up leg

 

[ForexTus]

I think we are heading back into a gap left on the 4h before we see the next up leg

Me too them gaps are really like magnets for price

 

[JWDKsm]

Given EU’s recent momentum, I’m quite have a strong bearish bias on the pair

 

[ForexViking]

13/06/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

We’ve hit against resistance and continue follow downtrend.

FED’s turn this week, will be the one to watch on Wednesday. I’ll be watching for further downtrend.

Despite a hawkish ECB the there’s been to much competition from the more hawkish FED

“Fed bringing benchmark lending rates to 3.78% while the ECB falling short at 1.93%.”

“The US Consumer Price Index soared to a 40-year high of 8.6% in May, ahead of the Fed’s decision.”

“Neither inflation will recede nor growth will pick up anytime soon. Central Banks’ future decisions have been already priced in.” Basically more of the same to come.

All in all I’m on the lookout for news to bump the pair off course but can’t really see it happening.

Will be looking for further moves down to challenge the 1.04.

How you guys seeing it? Any reason to be bullish?