Woud you wait for a retest before entering?
EURUSD Analysis (ongoing thread)
- Thread starter ForexViking
- Start date
ForexViking
Recruit
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- 159
24/10/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.
The pair is continuing to move downward through the trend channel with 0.99 looking like a good place for resistance.
I’m still in shorts from parity (1.0) and watching maybe 0.99 for new res, anything above or at parity will make me change bullish but seem unlikely atm.
I would wait for resistance to put in new sells, see how it reacts to the upper downtrend line.
I have take profits set at 0.93-0.92.
Side note: we seem to be squeezing for a big movement.
Points going forward:
Anyone feeling there’s going to be upside? Will the strength in the dollar falter?
The pair is continuing to move downward through the trend channel with 0.99 looking like a good place for resistance.
I’m still in shorts from parity (1.0) and watching maybe 0.99 for new res, anything above or at parity will make me change bullish but seem unlikely atm.
I would wait for resistance to put in new sells, see how it reacts to the upper downtrend line.
I have take profits set at 0.93-0.92.
Side note: we seem to be squeezing for a big movement.
Points going forward:
- “EUR/USD seen declining to 0.9300 in Q1 2023 – Nordea.”
- “Speculation about a shorter Fed hike in December has hit the USD.”
- “Europe is facing turmoil as tensions loom with Russia.”
- “The Federal Reserve is laying the ground to shrink the size of upcoming interest rate hikes, weighed on the US Dollar.”
Anyone feeling there’s going to be upside? Will the strength in the dollar falter?
pezz55
Sergeant
- Messages
- 204
EURGBP short term set up this week.
Looking for GBP to find some strength this week against the EUR.
With the new PM in place and the current set up. EUR failed to make a new high so will be looking for a short term sell set up to form and break back down in to the wick low.
As you can see this would fit the fib but there is also an area marked above that i will watch if we continue to drive up.
Keep a close eye on market structure and remember key entry and price action will be needed.
Make sure you use proper risk management when trading.
Thoughts on the markets at the moment?
Looking for GBP to find some strength this week against the EUR.
With the new PM in place and the current set up. EUR failed to make a new high so will be looking for a short term sell set up to form and break back down in to the wick low.
As you can see this would fit the fib but there is also an area marked above that i will watch if we continue to drive up.
Keep a close eye on market structure and remember key entry and price action will be needed.
Make sure you use proper risk management when trading.
Thoughts on the markets at the moment?
Stoic
Corporal
- Messages
- 104
dangerous for bullish on such a trend.
long is possible above 1.0.
in my opinion it is safer to wait the moment for a short
ForexViking
Recruit
- Messages
- 159
31/10/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.
We’ve broken the upper downtrend line and are retesting as support, waiting for confirmation to see where we’re headed.
DXY has also broken uptrend and is retesting, the mirroring to EURUSD showing that strength in the dollar has been the main factor for the trend.
EURUSD may continue to go downwards and this may be a move to shake out obvious shorts.
The decider: Is the dollar weakening?
ECB have been slow with rate hikes but have 75bp on Wednesday with talk of maybe lower hikes in the future.
The ECB are in a hard place right now, risk a recession by introducing higher rate hikes or allow inflation to go on longer.
We’ve also seen positive GDP for Germany on Friday that may have subdued recession fears.
The FED are expected to hike rates on Wednesday by 75bp but must be noted that they’re expected to deliver 50bp in December and 25bp in January.
S&P500 is up around 2% and might be showing that the markets are optimistic and may show a weaker dollar.
NFP is expected lower which would coincide with FED moderation and push the dollar lower.
All in all we may be looking at a turning point, and it may depend on the test of the upper downtrend line.
If we bounce… it’s on, I expect volatility and we may see volatility that we haven’t seen since 2008.
If we drop, we’re still following the channel.
Are we seeing the dollar getting weaker?
We’ve broken the upper downtrend line and are retesting as support, waiting for confirmation to see where we’re headed.
DXY has also broken uptrend and is retesting, the mirroring to EURUSD showing that strength in the dollar has been the main factor for the trend.
EURUSD may continue to go downwards and this may be a move to shake out obvious shorts.
The decider: Is the dollar weakening?
ECB have been slow with rate hikes but have 75bp on Wednesday with talk of maybe lower hikes in the future.
The ECB are in a hard place right now, risk a recession by introducing higher rate hikes or allow inflation to go on longer.
We’ve also seen positive GDP for Germany on Friday that may have subdued recession fears.
The FED are expected to hike rates on Wednesday by 75bp but must be noted that they’re expected to deliver 50bp in December and 25bp in January.
S&P500 is up around 2% and might be showing that the markets are optimistic and may show a weaker dollar.
NFP is expected lower which would coincide with FED moderation and push the dollar lower.
All in all we may be looking at a turning point, and it may depend on the test of the upper downtrend line.
If we bounce… it’s on, I expect volatility and we may see volatility that we haven’t seen since 2008.
If we drop, we’re still following the channel.
Are we seeing the dollar getting weaker?
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