Tifia Forex Broker Daily Market Analytics, Analytics and trading recommendations by Tifia Company

[Tifia FX]

AUD/USD: there are no arguments in favor of raising RBA interest rates

09/02/2018

Current dynamics

Unlike the Fed, other major global central banks are in no hurry to tighten their monetary policies. After earlier this week the RB of Australia and the RB of New Zealand decided not to change their interest rates, on Thursday another central bank, the Bank of England, decided to leave the interest rate at the current level of 0.5%, which coincided with the expectations of market participants. The rhetoric of the accompanying statements and comments of representatives of these banks was also mild.

In a tone to these statements on Thursday, the leaders of the Bank of Japan also spoke. Thus, the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said that the Japanese central bank will continue the large-scale mitigation program, since inflation is still far from the target level of 2%. "It's too early to discuss the timing and methods of getting out of soft politics. We will continue to buy ETF, REIT at the current pace", Kuroda added. Board Member of the Bank of Japan Hitoshi Suzuki supported Kuroda, noting that "the conditions necessary to further accelerate the rate of price growth" are created, thanks to a strong labor market, as well as the government's efforts to increase wages and increase productivity.

During today's Asian session, the RBA published comments on its decision to keep the interest rate at the current level. The key rate of the RBA remains at a record low for the RBA of 1.5% since mid-2016, and economists believe that the central bank will not change it after 2019.

The Reserve Bank of Australia predicts the retention of slow inflation and the inability to achieve full employment over the next few years. The RBA expects that core inflation will accelerate gradually and reach the lower boundary of the target range of 2% -3% by mid-2019. And the pace of core inflation is critical for the RBA monetary policy. The main source of uncertainty for the RBA remains the slow growth of wages. Acceleration of wage growth is a prerequisite for achieving the target inflation range of 2% -3%. The RBA gave a forecast for unemployment - 5.25% by the end of 2018. Currently, the unemployment rate is 5.5%. Thus, unemployment will remain above 5%, which, according to the RBA, does not correspond to full employment and significantly reduces the need for monetary tightening, despite the fact that economic growth in the country will accelerate and by mid-2019 will be 3.5% per annum.

Thus, the RBA's forecasts reflect the comments of the managing director Philip Lowe, who on Thursday said there was no argument in favor of raising interest rates in the short term.

At the same time, the Fed, it seems, does not intend to back away from its plans to tighten monetary policy. So, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the member of the FOMC with the right to vote, Esther George, said on Thursday that the Committee on Open Market Operations now intends to raise rates three times this year and three times in 2019. According to her, "this is a logical basic scenario in case the prospects do not change significantly".

Despite the fact that many economists are skeptical about the current strengthening of the US dollar, considering that its growth will be short-term and provide opportunities for its sale at higher levels, a more accurate long-term trading strategy for the AUD / USD will be a short position.

Against the background of a different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia, we can expect further decline in the AUD/USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7780, 0.7750, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330

Resistance levels: 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8130


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7740. Stop-Loss 0.7830. Take-Profit 0.7700, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330

Buy Stop 0.7830. Stop-Loss 0.7740. Take-Profit 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8130

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

S&P500: Investors are trying to understand the movements on the market

12/02/2018

Current dynamics

The main US stock indexes today continued their recovery. By the beginning of today's European session, the US stock indexes about half recovered losses suffered last week, which became the worst in the past few years. The recovery began on Friday evening.

Risks of faster monetary tightening by the Fed on the background of expectations of the intensification of inflation provoked fluctuations in the stock markets in the last two weeks.

If inflation really increases, the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates faster in order to keep the situation under control and avoid hyperinflation. And this will lead to an increase in the yield of government bonds, which may affect the growth of the market of more risky assets.

After a brief consolidation of the indices at current levels, bears can undertake a new assault. The yield of 10-year US bonds is growing again, updating the absolute highs, and is at the beginning of today's European session near the 2.900% mark, the maximum level for the last four years. The yield of government bonds is growing, which makes it easier for the Fed to raise interest rates, which is a negative factor for the stock market.

The CBOE volatility index, the so-called "Wall Street fear index," rose again on Friday to record values after the 2008 crisis, to the level of 41.00. Last Tuesday, this index jumped to the value of 50.00, which is much higher than the usual range, formed in recent months, between the marks of 9.00 and 19.00.

Investors try to understand the sharp and deep movements taking place on the market in order to evaluate them either as a technical correction after prolonged growth, or as a result of a deeper reassessment of the financial situation.

In the beginning of the week, investors will monitor the data on the state of the US budget (will be published on Monday 19:00 GMT), as well as on retail sales and consumer prices for January (on Wednesday 13:30 GMT), which could affect the dynamics of the US stock market.

Also, as usual, on Thursday (13:30 GMT) weekly data from the US labor market will be published, namely, the number of primary (forecast - 237,000 against 221,000) and secondary applications for unemployment. The result higher than expected will indicate a weakening of the labor market, which will negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2630.0, 2610.0, 2560.0, 2530.0

Resistance levels: 2695.0, 2730.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2618.0. Stop-Loss 2670.0. Objectives 2610.0, 2560.0, 2530.0

Buy Stop 2670.0 Stop-Loss 2618.0. Objectives 2695.0, 2730.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

DJIA: investors remain cautious

13/02/2018

Current dynamics

On Monday, all three major US stock indexes rose for the second consecutive session, returning some of the losses incurred during the two previous weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 1.7% to 24601.00 points, the S&P500 - by 1.4% to 2,666.00 points, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6% to 6981.00 points.

Earlier in the US, and after and in all world stock markets, there was a sharp collapse in the indices. So, S&P500 lost over 5% last week due to signs of strengthening inflation and higher yields on government bonds, and the volatility index CBOE, or VIX, rose by almost 70% in the whole week, jumping to a mark of 50.00, a record high after the crisis of 2008.

The risks of a more rapid monetary policy tightening on the part of the Fed on the background of expectations of increased inflation provoked fluctuations in the stock markets over the past two weeks. Investors were also alarmed by the growth in the yield of US government bonds. Thus, the yield on 10-year US bonds on Monday reached new absolute highs near the 2.900% mark, the maximum values for the last four years. The increase in bond yields in early 2018 was one of the reasons for the decline in world stock markets. Profitability can grow even more on the background of the normalization of monetary policy and the further strengthening of the world economy. The growth of yield of government bonds facilitates the task of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The stock market would quietly transfer one or two rate hikes. Last year, the former head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, stated that an increase in the interest rate alone is not enough to turn the bull stock market, but that would be another confirmation of the strength of the US economy.

Now buyers of risky assets of the stock market are confused, as a faster rate increase could slow or stop further growth of stock indices. Investors are still cautious after the sharp sales observed last week, and world stock markets are falling again on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, US stock indices are above critical support levels. Despite the fluctuations, last week created opportunities for profitable purchases, according to optimistic investors. The principle of "buy on the rumor, sell on facts", it seems, can work and this time. At least, it has already worked in part - "sell on facts".

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 24050.0, 23800.0, 23200.0, 23000.0, 22450.0

Resistance levels: 24820.0, 25200.0


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 24970.0. Stop-Loss 24240.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 26600.0

Sell Stop 24240.0. Stop-Loss 24970.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23800.0, 23200.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

S&P500: on the eve of the publication of inflation data

14/02/2018

Current dynamics

While investors are waiting for the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of important macro data from the US, US stock indexes continue to recover after a record fall in the previous two weeks. On the eve of the leading US indices for the third time in a row completed the trading in the market in positive territory.

Among the data published at 13:30 the most important inflation indicators will be. So, it is expected that the basic inflation increased in January by 1.7% (in annual terms). If the forecast is justified, the stock indexes will continue to recover, but if inflation is higher, then tension will return to the markets.

Probably, the best scenario for buyers of the assets of the stock market today will be weak inflation data and strong - on retail sales in the US.

Moreover, according to many economists, even if the inflation data in the US prove to be strong, this will not change the negative attitude towards the dollar. Against this background, the recovery of the US stock market is likely to continue after today's publication of macro data. Against the backdrop of low inflationary pressures in 2017, US stock indexes reached new record highs.

If inflation significantly exceeds forecasts, the Fed may need to increase interest rates four times in 2018. In this case, the stock markets have a chance to confirm the worst forecasts and resume the decline.

Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US bonds is growing again and is currently at the level of 2.842%, slightly below the 2.900% mark reached two days ago, the highest level in the last four years. With the increase in the yield of government bonds, the Fed is easier to raise interest rates.

The most cautious traders today, perhaps, prefer to go into the cache. A surge in volatility in the financial markets is expected during the publication (13:30 GMT) of the data.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0

Resistance levels: 2682.0, 2723.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2660.0. Stop-Loss 2688.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0

Buy Stop 2688.0 Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2723.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

Brent: oil prices have corrected after a many-day fall

15/02/2018

Current dynamics

Despite the fact that oil and oil products stocks in the US raised again last week, oil prices on Wednesday rose after a many-day drop from the level of $ 70.00 per barrel of Brent crude oil. At the beginning of the month, the oil market was under pressure amid a decline in world stock indices and an increase in oil production in the US.

As reported on Wednesday in the US Department of Energy, oil reserves in the US last week increased by 1.8 million barrels (the forecast was + 2.6 million barrels). The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported an increase in reserves of 3.9 million barrels. Brent crude at ICE went up $ 1.64 on Wednesday, or 2.6%, to $ 64.36 a barrel.

Growth in oil prices on Wednesday also was contributed by the media reports that Saudi Arabia confirmed its commitment to the plan to limit the supply. "We believe that it is better for us to take redundant steps (to reduce supply) and ensure the restoration of the balance of the market", Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said at a press conference in Riyadh. In November, OPEC extended the deal to limit the offer until the end of 2018, and the cartel agreed to reevaluate the transaction in the middle of the year.

The renewed weakening of the dollar and growth in stock exchanges also supports oil prices in the current situation. On Wednesday, the dollar showed a large decline after it published disappointing data on retail sales in the US in January. Despite the fact that inflation accelerated in January, retail sales in January fell by 0.3%, which was the strongest drop in almost a year (the forecast assumed growth of retail sales in January by 0.2%).

After the publication of disappointing data on retail sales, economists lowered forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018. Based on the data presented this week, it can be concluded that the budget deficit and the deficit of US foreign trade are growing, and the risks of slowing GDP growth are also increasing. This could be an important factor that increases the Fed's predilection for maintaining a soft monetary policy.

Nevertheless, on Friday, the oil market may again be under pressure if the data on the number of operating drilling rigs in the United States indicate the next increase in the number of installations, and, consequently, the growth of oil production. The weekly report from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US will be presented at 18:00 (GMT). At the moment, their number is 791 units. The positive dynamics of both the growth in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States and the volume of oil production prevails, which is a strong deterrent for the further growth of oil prices.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 64.00, 63.00, 61.50, 59.50, 56.50

Resistance levels: 64.85, 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00, 70.75


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 63.90. Stop-Loss 64.90. Take-Profit 63.00, 61.50, 59.50, 56.50

Buy Stop 64.90. Stop-Loss 63.90. Take-Profit 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

AUD/USD: The strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar

16/02/2018

Current dynamics

During his speech today before the parliament, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Philip Lowey said that he "would prefer a lower exchange rate". In his opinion, "there is no reason to raise rates in the short term". Lowey noted that "inflation remains low", although "business sentiment is improving".

Approximately the same statements Lowey did before. Therefore, his today's speech did not bring surprises.

The Australian dollar reacted with restraint to Lowey's speech. Nevertheless, the Australian dollar is rising against the US dollar, justifying Lowey's view that "the strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar".

And, indeed, the US dollar remains under pressure, continuing to decline against its major counterparts. The dynamics of the dollar is not affected even by the macro statistics coming from the US, indicating an increase in inflation. So, on Thursday there were one more data, indicating the growth of inflationary pressure.

The producer price index (PPI), reflecting changes in prices for goods and services of American companies, in January rose by 0.4%, which is the best result since April 2017.

The consumer price index (CPI) released on Wednesday also surpassed expectations. The growth of consumer inflation in January was 2.1% (in annual terms). The CPI base index increased by 1.8% compared to the same period in 2017. According to economists, inflation will be above the target level of 2% this year already.

The growth of inflation against the backdrop of a strong labor market and a stable state of the US economy gives the Fed a reason to tighten monetary policy more rapidly. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. Now many investors believe that the Fed can implement a 4-time rate increase this year. So, according to the CME Group, investors estimate a 21% chance of 4 rate increases this year. Earlier this week, such a probability was estimated at 17%.

Nevertheless, the US dollar continues to scale down. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, fell on Friday to 88.18, the lowest level since December 2014, and at the beginning of the European session is near the mark of 88.35.

Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of data on the housing market in the US for January, which may increase volatility in the US dollar. However, this statistic will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the US dollar.

The US dollar remains under pressure due to profound fundamental changes in the global financial market. Investors seem to opt for more interesting and growing financial markets outside of the US, which forces them to buy assets and the national currency of countries with a fast-growing economy, in particular the Eurozone and Japan.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7950, 0.7900, 0.7820, 0.7795, 0.7760, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330

Resistance levels: 0.7990, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7940. Stop-Loss 0.8000. Take-Profit 0.7900, 0.7820, 0.7795, 0.7760

Buy Stop 0.8000. Stop-Loss 0.7940. Take-Profit 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

XAU/USD: gold prospects are positive

19/02/2018

Current dynamics

After on Friday the price of gold updated the monthly maximum, having risen to the mark of 1361.00 dollars per troy ounce, then the price went to the corrective phase. The XAU / USD declined, retreating to the mark near the support level of 1348.00 (the opening price of the month). Last month, the price of gold reached the next local multi-month high near the mark of 1365.00 dollars per ounce. The last time near this mark the price was in July 2016.

Nevertheless, with regard to the further dynamics of the price of gold, there are two opposing opinions of experts. The first view is that, amid rising inflation, the Fed will begin to raise interest rates at a faster rate, which will increase the interest to the dollar purchases. Gold does not bring investment income and is used, mainly, as a hedging instrument for risks during the period of economic or political instability in the world. In periods of increasing interest rates, gold, as a rule, becomes cheaper, giving way to assets that generate revenue, such as government bonds. Due to the growth of inflation expectations, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds returned to almost 3%.

In this sense, the publication on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the January meeting of the Fed, the latter under the leadership of Janet Yellen, will be of interest to investors this week. The minutes of the meeting may give market participants an idea that the Fed's management is thinking about the possible economic consequences of reforming the tax system and about accelerating inflation in the US.

The contrary opinion of experts is that, despite the expected increase in interest rates, gold still has good chances for growth as a means of protecting against the growth of consumer inflation.

Thus, the probability of further growth in gold prices outweighs the likelihood of their decline. Taking into account the multi-month cycles, the long-term targets for the growth of the gold price will be the levels of 1390.00, 1425.00 dollars per troy ounce.

In view of the fact that the US has a day off ("President's Day"), and American banks and exchanges are closed, the sluggish dynamics of trading on financial markets is expected until the end of the trading day.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1340.00, 1328.00, 1308.00, 1289.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00

Resistance levels: 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1343.00. Stop-loss 1358.00. Take-Profit 1340.00, 1328.00

Buy Stop 1358.00. Stop-Loss 1343.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

NZD/USD: Fundamental factors are on the side of US dollar sellers

20/02/2018

Current dynamics

The US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market after it reached new lows last week. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, is growing for the third consecutive day. At the beginning of the European session, the futures on the DXY index traded with an increase near the mark of 89.50.

The growth of the dollar is also promoted by the growth of the yield of US Treasury bonds, which is close to the highs observed last week. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.92% on the eve of the first trading day in the US this week. On Monday, US markets were closed due to the day off (President's Day).

Meanwhile, the attitude to the dollar on the part of investors remains negative. Economists and financial companies lowered forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018. Significant growth of the country's budget deficit, coupled with the growth of the foreign trade deficit to $ 566 billion, the highest level since 2008, leads to a further decrease in investors' interest in the dollar.

The new US tax law, which provides for a significant reduction in taxes and an increase in budget spending, will only contribute to the growth of the federal budget deficit.

Despite the positive macro statistics coming from the US, deep fundamental factors are on the side of dollar sellers.

Meanwhile, the dollar receives short-term support on the eve of the publication on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Reserve System.

Probably, investors will wait for new signals from the leadership of the Fed regarding further interest rate increases in the US. As you know, the Fed planned 3 rate increases in 2018 and 2 more increases in 2019.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of +5.9% (against previous values of +4.9%, +2.2% and +0.4%). If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.

Nevertheless, this time the reaction of market participants to this publication will likely be restrained due to the continued celebration of the New Year in China, which is New Zealand's largest partner and buyer of dairy products from this country.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7340, 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7380. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080

Buy Stop 0.7380. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: before the release of the Fed's minutes

21/02/2018

Current dynamics

In anticipation of the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the Fed meeting held on January 30-31, the dollar remains stable and trades with a slight increase. In December, the Fed for the third time in 2017 increased the rate, bringing it to the current level of 1.5%. Fed leaders voted unanimously for this rate hike and showed a tendency to further tighten monetary policy in the next two years. During the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intention to raise the interest rate three times in 2018 and twice in 2019.

Market participants expect that the first rate increase may occur already during the March meeting of the Fed (March 20 - 21). Moreover, many investors (21%, according to the latest data from the CME Group) believe that the Fed will raise the rate four times in 2018 amid a steady growth in the US economy, the labor market and inflation. And now, investors are hoping to catch new signals from the Fed regarding further plans in the matter of monetary policy.

As usual, the national currency grows when the interest rate rises. So far, the growth of the dollar is not observed, since many investors remain negative towards him because of deep negative fundamental factors. Many economists believe that the dollar is only at the beginning of the multi-year cycle of the next decline. But everything can change if the Fed will systematically tighten monetary policy, and the positive macro data will come from the USA.

There is still no clear idea of how the macroeconomic situation in the US will change as the new tax and economic policies of the White House are implemented.

As for the pound, the positive macro statistics received during the current European session from the UK did not significantly affect its dynamics. Despite the fact that the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased in the fourth quarter of 2017 (by 0.1% to 4.4%), the overall employment rate has increased, and the number of unemployed has declined most strongly since the end of 2015. Wages also increased. Moreover, the growth of salaries in the UK has been the strongest since the end of 2016.

In January, inflation remained at 3.0%, which is 1 percentage point higher than the target level of the Bank of England. In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound. At the same time, the pound will remain vulnerable against the euro and the dollar against the backdrop of Brexit.

Among other important news for today regarding the pair GBP / USD, it is worth highlighting

the speech (at 14:15 GMT) of the Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney during the hearing in the British Parliament of the Bank of England's report on inflation.

And at 14:45 there will be a block of important macro statistics from the United States. Among the published data - PMI in the leading sectors of the US economy (in the services sector and in the manufacturing sector) for February (preliminary release). The growth of indicators is expected, which will give an additional bullish impulse to the dollar.

With respect to the pair GBP / USD, we can say that, in general, positive dynamics remains. However, GBP / USD is in the zone of strong resistance levels 1.4185 (EMA50 on the monthly chart), 1.4050 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), from which it is possible, if not a turn, then a deep enough rebound.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3890, 1.3835, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3370, 1.3210

Resistance levels: 1.3990, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575


Trading Scenarios

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 1.4010. Take-Profit 1.3890, 1.3835, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3370

Buy Stop 1.4010. Stop-Loss 1.3910. Take-Profit 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/CAD: much depends on the dynamics of the US dollar

22/02/2018

Current dynamics

At the beginning of today's trading day, the dollar continued to rise after on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) the minutes from the January meeting of the Fed were published. From the text of the protocols, investors learned that the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support plans for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. At the December meeting, when the rate was raised for the third time in 2017, it became known about the Fed's intentions to raise the rate three times in 2018 and make two more increases in 2019.

During the January meeting, the US Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the key interest rate range of 1.25% -1.5% unchanged, but market participants expect that in March, when the first rate hike is expected to take place this year, the leaders of the Fed will add another increase in rates to the three planned.

And if this really happens, then the dollar will receive a strong support, despite the fact that there are a number of negative factors of a fundamental nature that cause investors to be wary of the dollar.

Among these negative factors - the growth of the federal budget deficit and the deficit of the foreign trade balance, which in December amounted to a record $ 566 billion, the highest level since 2008.

Meanwhile, at the beginning of the European trading session, the US dollar is once again declining.

To resume the growth of the dollar, additional signals from the Federal Reserve and macro statistics are needed. Important news from US is not expected until the end of the week, but it should pay attention to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of such an important inflation and macro statistical indicator as the level of retail sales in Canada. According to the forecast, in December retail sales in Canada are expected to grow by 0.2% after growing by 0.2% in November. The index of retail sales is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence. At the same time, retail trade is one of the most important components in filling the country's budget and GDP growth. A weak or negative value of this indicator is a negative factor for the Canadian dollar. If the value of the indicator is worse than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will decrease, including in the pair USD / CAD. And, conversely, an indicator exceeding the forecast value will help strengthen the Canadian dollar.

Also worth paying attention to the speeches of a number of representatives of the Fed, scheduled for 15:00, 17:10, 20:30 (GMT), which may have a short-term effect on the dynamics of the US dollar, and may for a short time cause a rise in volatility in US dollar trading .

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2655, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2835, 1.2900


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2670. Stop-Loss 1.2720. Take-Profit 1.2655, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170

Buy Stop 1.2720. Stop-Loss 1.2670. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900

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