WaveRider - Back to Basics - S/R, Price Action, MM, Smart Exits, One Indicator, and patience...

[WaveRider]

Fxonuoha, feel free to contribute.

Screenshots:
1. Hit the "Print Screen" button on you keyboard.
2. Open Paint (if you have windows)
3. Hit control+V. That will paste in in paint.
4. Crop it using their crop tool.
5. Hit "Save As" and save it with whatever file name you want. I use jpeg as the file format but I don't think it matters but generally smaller file sizes are better. png files are really small.
6. When posting use the Go Advanced button. Upload your file using the "Manage Attachments" button lower on the page.
7.Hit the "Add Files" button on the top right corner of the screen that pops up.
8. Hit the "Select Files" button in the next little screen that pops up.

 

[RahmanSL]

I think it's better if you write:

1) Hit the "PrtSc SysRq" (top right hand corner) button on your keyboard.

Why??? Because I had a hard time figuring what "Print Screen" button was when I asked the very same question sometime back

========================================

Alright, first off, from my 2 years past experiences, I think it's better to concentrate on just 2 or 3 currencies pairs (or metals if you fancy them) and get to know their behavior over a period of time.
Most traders picked EUR/USD for the lower spread and that accounts for daily active market movements on this pair....but, due to their very popularity, accounts for the lower spread too.

I used to trade anything that moves on the screen, but for the past couple months, I trade mostly EUR/USD, AUD/USD and, of course, Gold & Silver.
But I think I have to be very selective in trading Gold & Silver as you know very well what these metals can do to my (and "along' too ) trading accounts.

As I matured in the world of forex, I have come to realized our primary purpose is to make money in trading the forex and we don't have to trade each and every one of them to make money. It's much better and easier to get to know just a couple of currencies pair like we would know our wives. Once we have a very good understanding of their behavior & temperament, we should know how to place our trades, and when to get out of course, accordingly.

I still believe what I posted earlier on about the EUR/USD making false breaks upwards....and I think that huge looming impending bond repayment problem backs up my supposition on a weaker Euro against the USD in the week or weeks ahead.
Well, I will keep both ears on Bloomberg news to ensure I am on track.

Gold (and Silver) are behaving themselves and are slowing reversing upwards as expected, but I can sense they are waiting for any shattering economic news to go whichever way based on that news. I have 2 opened positions with fairly large profits riding on both of them and shall close them out immediately the moment I see/detect some unusual market movements.

All the best!

 

[WaveRider]

I think it's better if you write:

1) Hit the "PrtSc SysRq" (top right hand corner) button on your keyboard.

Alright, first off, from my 2 years past experiences, I think it's better to concentrate on just 2 or 3 currencies pairs (or metals if you fancy them) and get to know their behavior over a period of time.
All the best!

Thanks Rahman for the advise. Great to hear you're in profit too.

 

[WaveRider]

AUDJPY is setting up nice - hesistant

First is the daily at top of trend line and at 38.2 + S/R confluence that has already show itself significant. Second is the same trade on 4h with a nice pinbar indicating downward pressure an it's at the 61.8 ret of the last move on the 4h (not shown). I want to see some separation from the rest of the pack and this pinbar should close lower than the open to be a real pinbar. If it breaks down, it'll go to 78.50 or 78.31. This has solid support above the pinbar. Looks like a decent trade. Hesitant because of the holiday. Pass because of not seeing the bar close, and the holiday. If I did it it would look like:

Two orders to complete this trade:

Pending Sell Stop open 78.87 - below the pinbar
SL 78.15 - the next trouble area and also protected by the 79.00 level.
TP 1/2 at 79.75 and other half at 79.60 moving stop to BE

I have two demo accounts: EESFX and Alpari UK and they show a very different price... Maybe holiday. But it's about 10 pips...

 

[Fxonuoha]

Waverider,Rahman...thanks a great deal.

 

[WaveRider]

No, thanks for dignifying my thread!

 

[WaveRider]

Daily break out strategy

London does whatever it wants, NY often continues what London has started, Asia often retraces what London and NY just accomplished. Rise and repeat.

All I want is to be moving from one S/R to another starting with London as a decisive move, let NY continue it to the next S/R and I'll take 30-40 before I get off. It's hard to stop that behemoth pair once it's moving, so it has been a very safe reliable trade when the conditions are right. I won't buy or sell right into a S/R. Most decisive days need some time to cool off, then another decisive move. This strategy will not work every day. The image below shows a patch of indecision before the run to the S/R. We're only interested in the run.





This pic is an example. We've come off a major support from the weekly charts at 1.2850. The first red line is Asia open. The second is NY close. By the time I got up and looked at this chart the price was 1.3020 and the next resistance was 1.3080. It went up to 1.3078 matching the previous drop off on the top right side. Very nice trade, since Asia and London got the train moving and NY took it right to the logical profit target. I didn't take it because I want to trade only in the direction of the trend but I might make exceptions for this kind of momentum. Oh, no. This was the last good trade of 2012. I should get greedy and fearful and take everything I see...

I've taken 9 or 10 of these total over the last two months, all winners. One got 112 pips. Probably the only strat I'd ever need, assuming this currency will always behave this way.


All my positions in December were sells because we were trending down. Right now on this and many other pairs the bears and bulls are negotiating and I'll let them inform me who has won. Then I'll trade that direction for this strategy.

I trust this strategy and will continue to trade it live.

 

[WaveRider]

2nd win , 39 pips + 40 pips - still demo account.

The screen shot shows the a fib line snapped. I sold a bounce off the 38.2% when it had already gone below the 23.6. It moved up but not enough to stop me out. The SL was above the 38.2% which would have made this trade invalid, the next solid support being at the 61.8% retracement. Took some profit early at the 1.2715 level with a stop order opening another sell with a close SL and another 40 pips profit. The ultimate target for this trade was 10 pips above the the bottom that had been already reached marked 0% on the fib line. This old bottome was 1.2665 and the second position closed at 1.2675. The screen shot shows the account profit.

This was an A- trade but turned out well. There probably should have been a more decisive pinbar at the 38.2% line but there was confluence with the old hesitation just to the left. Risk was about 3% of account value on each position but since there were open separately, that's okay. Selling in a downtrend is the way to go.




Rahman is probably right. I'm looking at a many currencies (looking at many currencies is part of the J16 strategy) but I'll narrow it down to the majors and major crosses less anything with JPY in it.

Little time for trading. School is back in session...

 

[WaveRider]

3rd Win - 22 pips - Demo Account

Traded a bearish outside bar on the 4H EURGBP. Bounced off 76.4% plus dropped into lower pivot profit zone.I got a little lucky with bad news on downgrading of credit in the euro zone. Honestly, I wish there was no money to be made on this kind of bad news because so many are hurt by it. Sorry, France.

Sive thought this was going up today but the charts said down to me so I sold. I missed the fact that I was selling right into a support but once it was open, I figured I'd just let it ride out. Typical "Hey, it's only a demo account" mentality.

EURGBP sell at .8332 TP at .8312 SL at .8360

This trade could have been structured better. Better to have the SL at .8385 (above the bearish outside bar) and the TP at .8282 ( just above the next major support and exactly where the price is now). It would also have been better to use multiple positions to take some profit early. I might have made a little doing it this way even if Sive were right and the price turned against me. I'm convinced losing trades can become winners or break-evens with the correct position structure.

Risk was 1% of account value. Win in $ is $138.

Arrow 2 was the bearish outside I took. It took price into the next PPZ (pivot profit zone) but was still sitting on a support. Arrow 1 is a really good quality bearish outside bar. It brought the price into the next ppz with a lot of space for a nice drop after.

No losses so far. Woo hoo!

This was a great day for the daily break out on the live account but Sive's analysis encouraged me stay out. Would've made a little money if I'd gone for it...This is a weird battle ground period so caution is fine. I didn't win but I didn't lose either.

 

[RahmanSL]

Hi WaverRider,

Before I start my trades for the new week, I first read what analyst (Sive, PipHut, various brokers' analyst, etc) have to say about possible daily & weekly market movements...For Gold & Silver, I read "Silver-Gild Live 24 hours" newsletter on the web..Listen to Bloomberg & CNBC financial news, commentaries, forums, etc....
I then check charts on my target pairs/metals bigger time frames (D1, W1 & MN) whether the long term is bull or bear.
Then I check the H1 & W1 for agreement or disagreement with the longer time frame, and then see the M15 & M30 for comparison.

I use the M1 & M5 for actual trading indicators (candle stick & MACD) as these two charts change much faster and reflect market sentiments better than the longer time frames....and with up-to-minute financial news (web page opened throughout trading session on my computer) from "Talking Forex - First for FX News" (which you can downloaded free from the internet) as my primary source of what's going on in the financial world as the news unfold and any breaking news....and, of course, my customized "World Clock" downloaded free from the internet.....and, while trading, exchanging post on Sive's thread & at PipHut with other traders on trading ideas with other traders.

So, last Friday on EUR/USD long term remains bearish, but shorter time frames says bullish, then bearish, then reverse again.
In such a situation, if longer time frames says bearish, I normally trade shorts on any price rise based on M1 & M5...if the price action is fast or a lot of movements, I will scalp the trades taking short positions and (depending on price movement range) closing them out 5 to 20 pips.

As I have mentioned (and which you concurred) it's better to trade with max 2 currencies pairs for better concentration and understanding of their behaviors.

As for Demo trading, when I first started out, I did that for almost a year and making thousands of virtual money on mostly usd3k accounts. On reflection, I regretted staying so long on Demo as trading Demos instill a sense of recklessness in making trades as we know it's not real money and we simply restart a new account when the account got burned.

Personally I think it's best to switch over to a micro live account as soon as possible with the money you can afford. On usd20, your account balance will be reflected as 2,000 and trading 0.01 to 0.05 lot size will hardly jeopardize the account balance. On live account, you will learn how to manage your risk-reward & money management much better.
As you are still a student, time is on your side as you can grow that usd20 to thousands over a period of time. Do a quick compound interest calculation with modest 0.5% daily gain and you will see what that small money can turn into in 3-5 years of steady trading.

And, of course, during your free time learn all you can on various trading techniques from various site Analyst and adopt whichever one is best suited to your trading style.

Good luck, and have a pleasant and wonderful experiences on your forex journey.