2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

[SOLID ECN LLC]

Analyzing GBPUSD's Bullish Sentiments Amid Recent Downtrend​

Solid ECN – Pound Sterling demonstrated its resilience at the start of the Monday trading session. It opened with a slight gap against the U.S. Dollar but quickly recovered. It is currently holding strong at around 1.273.

The pair trades above the bullish trend line, as indicated in blue on the GBPUSD chart. Therefore, the primary trend remains bullish. However, the price has fallen from the 1.289 high and is now experiencing a downtrend within the bearish channel, marked in red.

The data from the chart suggests that the current downward momentum may represent a consolidation phase, setting the stage for a potential bullish comeback. The EMA 50, aligning with the trend line and the resistance level supported by the Ichimoku cloud, could provide a solid support for buyers to initiate this optimistic turn of events.

Please note that the price must break out of the bearish channel for the uptrend to resume. In this scenario, the rise could continue and target the high from February as its first significant milestone.​

 

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Oil Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Indicators​

Solid ECN – WTI crude futures increased to over $81 per barrel on Monday, building on the previous week's growth as ongoing geopolitical tensions fuel worries about oil supply. In the past week, Ukraine intensified its drone attacks on Russian oil facilities, causing a shutdown of approximately 7% of Russia's refining capabilities in the first quarter, as per a Reuters report.

Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced intentions to expand into the Gaza Strip's Rafah region, diminishing the likelihood of reaching a peace deal. Additionally, this week, investors are keenly observing the decisions on monetary policy by leading central banks for signs that might indicate when interest rate reductions will occur. Last week saw a near 4% rise in oil prices following an optimistic demand forecast by the International Energy Agency, which also anticipates a minor shortfall in supply for the year.​

 

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AUDUSD's Resilience: A Test Against Ichimoku Cloud Resistance​

Solid ECN – The Australian dollar rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci support level against the U.S. dollar in today's trading session. The pair is now testing the Ichimoku cloud as resistance, close to the EMA 50. The Awesome Oscillator bars are green, while the RSI remains below 50, giving mixed signals. Meanwhile, the ADX indicator has dropped to level 20, which can be interpreted as a slowdown in the trend.

From a technical standpoint, the bounce could extend to the upper band of the bearish flag depicted in red. However, as long as the AUDUSD price remains within the flag, the 23.6% Fibonacci level will likely be the next target.

The bear market should be invalidated if the price stabilizes itself above the cloud.​

 

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USDJPY at the Crossroads of Overbought Conditions​

Solid ECN – The Japanese currency has again become bearish against the U.S. Dollar. As shown on the USDJPY 4-hour chart, the American currency has risen above the Ichimoku cloud and is trading at about 149.1 as of this writing.

Currently, the pair is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci support while the RSI indicator is about to enter the overbought area. Therefore, it is not recommended to go long on the U.S. currency in a saturated market; it is better to wait for the pair to form new higher lows and lower highs.

That said, with the Awesome Oscillator's red bars, there is a high chance for the market to drop to the ascending trendline in red. This level of support can provide a decent entry point to join the bull market.

Conversely, the bull market should be invalidated if the price falls below the 148.8 mark.​

 

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Rising Russian Crude Oil Prices and Global Impacts​

Solid ECN – Russian Urals crude oil prices have recently climbed above $77 a barrel, approaching the high levels seen in October, and are following the general upward trend of global oil prices. Meanwhile, China is on track to bring in a historically high volume of Russian oil this month, although the quantity heading to India has fallen, as reported by Bloomberg.

Despite being targeted by recent attacks, Russia aims to increase its oil exports via western ports, thanks to extra shipments from companies like Rosneft and Tatneft. In December 2022, a price limit of $60 per barrel was set on Russian oil by the European Union, the G7 nations, and Australia. This measure aims to cut down the funding Russia receives for military operations in Ukraine.​

 

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WTI Crude Oil Prices Soar Amid Global Supply and Demand Dynamics​

Solid ECN – WTI crude oil prices remained above $82 per barrel on Tuesday, close to their peak since the start of November, boosted by concerns about supply. The reasons include Ukraine's recent drone attacks on three of Russia's oil refineries, which represent over 10% of Russia's oil refining capability. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Iraq has said it will cut back its oil exports to 3.3 million barrels per day in the upcoming months to make up for going over its OPEC+ limit since January.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia's oil exports dropped for the second month in a row, reaching 6.297 million barrels per day in January, down slightly from December. On the other side, demand appears strong, with China, a major oil buyer, showing solid growth in industrial output and retail sales. The overall global demand for oil is also expected to remain robust this year.​

 

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USDCHF Hits New Heights Post-Wedge Breakout

Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar broke out from the wedge pattern in today's trading session against the Swiss franc and is testing the 0.889 barrier as of writing.

The Awesome Oscillator signals divergence, which could be interpreted as a sign that a consolidation phase is likely on the way. Therefore, the price might dip to 0.885 before a new bullish wave begins. Interestingly, the RSI indicator is nearing the overbought zone, signaling the same as the AO.

From a technical standpoint, the ascending trendline in red supports the bull market. As long as the pair trades above this level, the primary trend will remain an uptrend. In this scenario, the market will likely surpass the 0.889 resistance and aim for the next target, the 0.895 mark.

P.S. For the uptrend to resume, the market must pass and stabilize the price above the 0.889 mark.​

 

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BTCUSD Hits April Low: What's Next for Bitcoin Prices?​

Solid ECN – Bitcoin flipped below the Ichimoku cloud in last week's trading session. The decline continued this week, and today BTCUSD hit a new low for April, trading below the $64,400 mark. Interestingly, the RSI and the Awesome Oscillator also point to a bear market. In addition to RSI and Ao, the ADX climbs to 40, signifying that the downtrend is strengthening.

From a technical standpoint, the EMA 50 and the upper band of the bearish channel, marked in red, act as resistance levels. If Bitcoin's price remains below $67,000, the next target is likely the $60,000 mark.

Conversely, for the uptrend to resume, the price must cross above the EMA 50 and maintain its position above it.
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Noteworthy​

It's important to note that the primary market is bullish, and the current downward momentum is considered a consolidation phase. During this phase, major players collect profits by sweeping the floor from retail traders.​

 

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Euro Drops as ECB Considers June Rate Cut Amid Slow Growth​

Solid ECN – The euro fell toward the $1.08 mark, its lowest since March 1st, as investors processed reports of slower wage increases and cautious remarks from some European Central Bank (ECB) officials. They also looked forward to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated on Tuesday that the bank might consider lowering interest rates in June, highlighting the need for more information before changing policies.

ECB President Christine Lagarde mentioned possibly lowering rates earlier in the month due to falling inflation. The ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, suggested a rate cut could come in the second quarter. Significantly, central bank leaders from Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Greece, and Slovakia, among the ECB's 26 Governing Council members, supported a decision in June.​

 

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EURUSD Hits New Low: Analyzing the Latest Bearish Wave​

Solid ECN – In today's trading session, the European currency dipped toward the 1.08 mark, its lowest since March 1st, against the U.S. Dollar. The drop was expected from a technical perspective because the bears formed an inverted hammer clinging to the EMA 50 yesterday. The failed attempt to cross above the moving average has led the EURUSD price to experience a new bearish wave.

As of this writing, the pair is testing the lower band of the bearish flag. The RSI indicator hovers in the oversold area; therefore, the market might make corrections below the EMA 50 before a new wave emerges.

From a technical standpoint, the primary market is dominated by bears if the price is kept below the cloud. Due to the RSI being in the oversold zone, we suggest waiting for the price to show some correction before joining the bear market. With the price below the mentioned resistance areas, the 23.6% Fibonacci support could be the next target.

The price must flip and stabilize itself above the cloud for the bear market to be deemed invalid.​