sebking1986
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Not at the moment. Little to suggest a break of structure is imminent and with increasing talk of recession money will flow into USD thus pushing EURUSD further down.
EURUSD Analysis (ongoing thread)
- Thread starter ForexViking
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Think that's happening this and last week. Many seem to be bracing for impact
ForexViking
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29/06/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.
The euro has done well to stand up against the dollar with particularly after weak eurozone PMI figures though not sure how long it can hold.
Technically the pair is looking quite neutral but lots of incoming fundamentals on their way to put pressure on the pair.
Quick bearish rundown:
- “Danske Bank forecast the EUR/USD pair at 1.04 in a one-month perspective, at 1.03 in three months and at 1.00 in a year.”
- “Rabobank continue to see the risk of a dip back to the year’s low at the 1.0350 region on a one to three-month view. They revised lower their 12-month forecast to 1.08 from 1.10.”
- General talks about recession, seeing USD as safe haven.
- “S&P cut the EU’s economic growth forecasts to 2.6% for this year.”
- “government bond yields advance, underpinning the American currency.”
Overall thoughts; I’m watching the 1.04 res closely. It’s been tested a couple of times now though I feel like it’s not a sign of reversal but a sign that the pair wants to go further.
We still have the upper downtrend line to meet and test at 1.06, a break above will see us testing 1.065-1.07 area with SLs at 1.08-1.085 hopefully safe.
I think for any sign of reversal the pair would have to consolidate out of the downtrend but this scenario looks unlikely.
What are your thoughts on the pair? Are the sellers still safe?
The euro has done well to stand up against the dollar with particularly after weak eurozone PMI figures though not sure how long it can hold.
Technically the pair is looking quite neutral but lots of incoming fundamentals on their way to put pressure on the pair.
Quick bearish rundown:
- “Danske Bank forecast the EUR/USD pair at 1.04 in a one-month perspective, at 1.03 in three months and at 1.00 in a year.”
- “Rabobank continue to see the risk of a dip back to the year’s low at the 1.0350 region on a one to three-month view. They revised lower their 12-month forecast to 1.08 from 1.10.”
- General talks about recession, seeing USD as safe haven.
- “S&P cut the EU’s economic growth forecasts to 2.6% for this year.”
- “government bond yields advance, underpinning the American currency.”
Overall thoughts; I’m watching the 1.04 res closely. It’s been tested a couple of times now though I feel like it’s not a sign of reversal but a sign that the pair wants to go further.
We still have the upper downtrend line to meet and test at 1.06, a break above will see us testing 1.065-1.07 area with SLs at 1.08-1.085 hopefully safe.
I think for any sign of reversal the pair would have to consolidate out of the downtrend but this scenario looks unlikely.
What are your thoughts on the pair? Are the sellers still safe?
sebking1986
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Got the USD push up back end of last week by the looks of it. I was enjoying some time away in the sun so wasn't active to take advantage.
SimonMatthews
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Looks like you were spot on, the bearish run has definitely continued. The big question is how low will it go. It's currently sitting at 1.025 which is the lowest it has been in a long, long time.
Psychological levels are so strong arent they, id say there were lots waiting for it to hit that level
ForexViking
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18/07/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.
We may see sub-dollar euro soon that we haven’t seen since the early 2000s.
I’m looking at a retrace to find resistance on Monday then pilling on more shorts.
Think we might see a nice sell zone around 1.04.
Looking at Thursday when the ECB announce monetary measures.
The ECB announcement may be bullish for the moment or priced in which will see us pop up in expectation.
Generally feeling the sells are safe though.
“The ECB has signalled the start of the rate hike cycle and a 25 bps rate hike is fully priced in the markets. The question, however, is whether the central bank commits the size of the rate hike in September or leaves it open.” All eyes ECB
What you guys thinking? Any chance of reversal?
We may see sub-dollar euro soon that we haven’t seen since the early 2000s.
I’m looking at a retrace to find resistance on Monday then pilling on more shorts.
Think we might see a nice sell zone around 1.04.
Looking at Thursday when the ECB announce monetary measures.
The ECB announcement may be bullish for the moment or priced in which will see us pop up in expectation.
Generally feeling the sells are safe though.
“The ECB has signalled the start of the rate hike cycle and a 25 bps rate hike is fully priced in the markets. The question, however, is whether the central bank commits the size of the rate hike in September or leaves it open.” All eyes ECB
What you guys thinking? Any chance of reversal?
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