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EUR USD Remains Under Pressure
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Brent Crude Oil price hits $130 for the first time since 2012
Brent Crude Oil started the new week with active growth, trading close to 130 dollars per barrel. Peak prices reached 135 dollars, breaking the highs of 2012, but so far, the "bulls" cannot consolidate at such high levels.
Currently, there is increased investor activity, and volatility remains high, as traders are concerned about the prospects for Russian energy exports. Earlier in the media, there were reports that the United States and its closest allies are considering the possibility of a complete refusal of supplies from Russia.
Their import is difficult but not limited, which allows the US and Europe to make purchases. However, the prices of gasoline and natural gas in the EU countries are rising markedly, but this does not compare with the possibility of a complete embargo. Last week, as part of ministerial negotiations within the International Energy Agency (IEA), a decision was made to release 30M barrels of oil from the strategic reserve in connection with the situation around Ukraine. According to the head of the White House, Joe Biden, this will help reduce the likelihood of supply disruptions.
Iran may improve the situation. It continues negotiations around its "nuclear program." If successful, official Tehran will resume energy exports, partially compensating for the gaps in Russian exports, while OPEC+ may try to accelerate the process of restoring production volumes, given the further deterioration of the situation.
Resistance levels: 128.6, 131, 135.77, 138.
Support levels: 125.85, 122.6, 121, 118.32.
Currently, there is increased investor activity, and volatility remains high, as traders are concerned about the prospects for Russian energy exports. Earlier in the media, there were reports that the United States and its closest allies are considering the possibility of a complete refusal of supplies from Russia.
Their import is difficult but not limited, which allows the US and Europe to make purchases. However, the prices of gasoline and natural gas in the EU countries are rising markedly, but this does not compare with the possibility of a complete embargo. Last week, as part of ministerial negotiations within the International Energy Agency (IEA), a decision was made to release 30M barrels of oil from the strategic reserve in connection with the situation around Ukraine. According to the head of the White House, Joe Biden, this will help reduce the likelihood of supply disruptions.
Iran may improve the situation. It continues negotiations around its "nuclear program." If successful, official Tehran will resume energy exports, partially compensating for the gaps in Russian exports, while OPEC+ may try to accelerate the process of restoring production volumes, given the further deterioration of the situation.
Resistance levels: 128.6, 131, 135.77, 138.
Support levels: 125.85, 122.6, 121, 118.32.
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USDJPY is consolidating around 115
The US dollar continues mixed trading against the Japanese yen, consolidating around 115.
USDJPY finished trading on Friday with a rather active growth, despite the fact that the published report on the US labor market showed a strong increase in Nonfarm Payrolls by 678K, while the average forecasts did not assume an increase of more than 400K. Demand for the dollar, as well as for the yen, remains quite high, as Russia continues to conduct a special military operation in Ukraine, despite the introduction of unprecedented sanctions against Russian business by Western countries.
Today traders expect the publication of Japanese statistics on Consumer Credit Change in February. During the day, Labor Cash Earnings and Trade Balance data for January will also be published.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 115, 115.28, 115.75, 116.
Support levels: 114.5, 114, 113.5, 113.
The US dollar continues mixed trading against the Japanese yen, consolidating around 115.
USDJPY finished trading on Friday with a rather active growth, despite the fact that the published report on the US labor market showed a strong increase in Nonfarm Payrolls by 678K, while the average forecasts did not assume an increase of more than 400K. Demand for the dollar, as well as for the yen, remains quite high, as Russia continues to conduct a special military operation in Ukraine, despite the introduction of unprecedented sanctions against Russian business by Western countries.
Today traders expect the publication of Japanese statistics on Consumer Credit Change in February. During the day, Labor Cash Earnings and Trade Balance data for January will also be published.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 115, 115.28, 115.75, 116.
Support levels: 114.5, 114, 113.5, 113.
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Brent Crude Oil
The price hits $130 for the first time since 2012
The price hits $130 for the first time since 2012
SOLID ECN LLC
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GBPUSD, the pound is consolidating near 1.31
The British pound regains lost ground during the morning session on March 8, trying to retreat from record lows since November 2021, updated the day before. The downtrend in GBP/USD is due to the rapid strengthening of the US dollar quotes, as market participants are in a hurry to hedge risks against the backdrop of rising inflation and the continuation of a special military operation of Russian troops in Ukraine. On Monday, the trading instrument came close to strong support at 1.3100, below which the British currency was last traded in November 2020.
The pound, like many other high-yielding assets, is being sold amid escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and sanctions pressure exerted by Western countries on Russia, which intensified earlier in the week after the US authorities announced that they were considering a complete ban on energy imports from Russia. The position of European countries on this issue is not unanimous, as some of them, such as Germany, say that it is currently not possible to resolve the energy issue without Russian supplies. Against this backdrop, prices for gasoline, gas and electricity continue to rise in Europe.
The macroeconomic statistics from Great Britain, released at the beginning of the week, did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Halifax House Prices rose by 0.5% in February, which turned out to be noticeably worse than market forecasts at the level of 1.1%. BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales in February slowed down sharply from 8.1% to 2.7%, while the market expected a strong growth of 15.2%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is expanding, but at the moment it is not keeping up with the surge of "bearish" sentiment. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal. Stochastic keeps a steady downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold pound in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.315, 1.3200, 1.3250, 1.33.
Support levels: 1.31, 1.305, 1.3, 1.296.
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USDTRY, Turkish lira under pressure
During the Asian session, the USDTRY pair is growing slightly, developing the "bullish" momentum that formed in early March.
Annual inflation in Turkey shows record levels, reaching 54.4% in February. Given the further escalation of tensions around Ukraine, investors fear increased price pressure in the future. Consumer prices are rising at the fastest rate in forty years, up 7.22% in February and 105% YoY. The negative dynamics are developing against the backdrop of an increase in energy tariffs and a loose monetary policy of the Central Bank of the country: officials approve a national economic program aimed at attracting investment at a low interest rate.
On Thursday, American investors expect the publication of February statistics on consumer prices in the US. It is assumed that inflation will continue its growth and may reach 8.0%, which will significantly increase pressure on the position of the US Federal Reserve on the issue of tightening monetary policy. An increase in the rate is still expected at the end of March, but global regulators may reconsider their immediate plans due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the world.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands grow moderately. The price range expands, letting the "bulls" renew local highs. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a relatively strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics but is close to its highs, indicating that USD may become overbought in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 14.4, 14.5, 14.6.
Support levels: 14.3, 14.1, 13.9, 13.8.
During the Asian session, the USDTRY pair is growing slightly, developing the "bullish" momentum that formed in early March.
Annual inflation in Turkey shows record levels, reaching 54.4% in February. Given the further escalation of tensions around Ukraine, investors fear increased price pressure in the future. Consumer prices are rising at the fastest rate in forty years, up 7.22% in February and 105% YoY. The negative dynamics are developing against the backdrop of an increase in energy tariffs and a loose monetary policy of the Central Bank of the country: officials approve a national economic program aimed at attracting investment at a low interest rate.
On Thursday, American investors expect the publication of February statistics on consumer prices in the US. It is assumed that inflation will continue its growth and may reach 8.0%, which will significantly increase pressure on the position of the US Federal Reserve on the issue of tightening monetary policy. An increase in the rate is still expected at the end of March, but global regulators may reconsider their immediate plans due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the world.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands grow moderately. The price range expands, letting the "bulls" renew local highs. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a relatively strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics but is close to its highs, indicating that USD may become overbought in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 14.4, 14.5, 14.6.
Support levels: 14.3, 14.1, 13.9, 13.8.
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EURUSD, the euro develops technical correction
The European currency shows weak growth against the US dollar during the Asian session, developing a corrective momentum and testing 1.09 for a breakout; however, further development of the "bullish" dynamics for the instrument is limited by negative market sentiment regarding the growth prospects of the eurozone economy.
Analysts pay attention to the sharp increase in quotations on commodity markets after Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a special military operation in Ukraine. Subsequently, the authorities of the Western countries imposed unprecedented sanctions on the Russian economy, and many global companies decided to refuse cooperation with business partners from Russia. In addition, the United States announced the day before that the country was completely refusing to import Russian oil, gas and other energy carriers, which is likely to further aggravate the situation on the commodity markets. Europe, in turn, will not yet be able to completely ban Russian imports, since it is much more dependent on them. However, further restrictions are possible, and, for example, the UK said earlier in the week that it intends to cut off Russian energy supplies by the end of 2022. In addition, sanctions could backfire, causing the euro system to fall, as a freeze on Russian assets could negatively impact European banks.
This week, investors will focus on the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on interest rates. The meeting will take place on Thursday, March 10, and current market forecasts suggest that the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy. Moreover, it is quite possible that the ECB will not raise rates at all this year, given the possible slowdown in economic growth in the region.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is trying to reverse upwards keeping a previous sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, retreating from its lows, indicating strongly oversold EUR in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.095, 1.1, 1.1054, 1.11.
Support levels: 1.09, 1.086, 1.08, 1.075.
Analysts pay attention to the sharp increase in quotations on commodity markets after Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a special military operation in Ukraine. Subsequently, the authorities of the Western countries imposed unprecedented sanctions on the Russian economy, and many global companies decided to refuse cooperation with business partners from Russia. In addition, the United States announced the day before that the country was completely refusing to import Russian oil, gas and other energy carriers, which is likely to further aggravate the situation on the commodity markets. Europe, in turn, will not yet be able to completely ban Russian imports, since it is much more dependent on them. However, further restrictions are possible, and, for example, the UK said earlier in the week that it intends to cut off Russian energy supplies by the end of 2022. In addition, sanctions could backfire, causing the euro system to fall, as a freeze on Russian assets could negatively impact European banks.
This week, investors will focus on the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on interest rates. The meeting will take place on Thursday, March 10, and current market forecasts suggest that the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy. Moreover, it is quite possible that the ECB will not raise rates at all this year, given the possible slowdown in economic growth in the region.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is trying to reverse upwards keeping a previous sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, retreating from its lows, indicating strongly oversold EUR in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.095, 1.1, 1.1054, 1.11.
Support levels: 1.09, 1.086, 1.08, 1.075.
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Gold, the price of gold exceeded 2K dollars per ounce
Gold prices continue to develop "bullish" dynamics, trading above the psychological level of $2000 and renewing the highs since August 2020 against the backdrop of a massive withdrawal of investors from risks due to aggravated geopolitical tensions.
The key moment at the present time remains the export of energy carriers by the Russian Federation, including oil and gas. The US announced the day before that the country was refusing Russian imports, but does not expect that its European partners will be able to take similar measures in the near future. However, the EU is also concerned about the issue of energy security, and the UK, for example, announced its intention to stop importing Russian energy carriers before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, oil and gas prices continue to break records in the market, threatening Western economies with a sharp increase in inflationary pressures. In addition, a group of US Congressional senators prepared a draft banning Russia from selling gold in order to counter severe restrictions against the backdrop of blocking the international reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Secondary sanctions are expected to apply to any US companies that transact or sell the precious metal physically or electronically in Russia.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range is actively expanding, but it fails to catch the surge of "bullish" sentiment at the moment. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its highs, reverses into the descending plane, indicating risks of overbought gold in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 2070, 2085, 2100.
Support levels: 2050, 2030, 2015, 2000.
The key moment at the present time remains the export of energy carriers by the Russian Federation, including oil and gas. The US announced the day before that the country was refusing Russian imports, but does not expect that its European partners will be able to take similar measures in the near future. However, the EU is also concerned about the issue of energy security, and the UK, for example, announced its intention to stop importing Russian energy carriers before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, oil and gas prices continue to break records in the market, threatening Western economies with a sharp increase in inflationary pressures. In addition, a group of US Congressional senators prepared a draft banning Russia from selling gold in order to counter severe restrictions against the backdrop of blocking the international reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Secondary sanctions are expected to apply to any US companies that transact or sell the precious metal physically or electronically in Russia.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range is actively expanding, but it fails to catch the surge of "bullish" sentiment at the moment. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its highs, reverses into the descending plane, indicating risks of overbought gold in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 2070, 2085, 2100.
Support levels: 2050, 2030, 2015, 2000.
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USDJPY, Japanese economy continues to slow down
The USDJPY pair is growing against the backdrop of a depreciation of the Japanese currency, trading around 115.77.
The yen is rapidly losing value, and it is obvious that without decisive steps from the Bank of Japan, further devaluation cannot be avoided. This morning, another disappointing report was published, which reflected the high rate of a slowdown in the national economy:
Q4 GDP increased by 1.1%, which is lower than the preliminary estimates of experts at 1.4%. The negative dynamics led to a drop in the annual rate to 4.6%, while analysts had expected values around 5.6%. Although it increased by 2.4%, the level of consumer spending also fell short of the forecasted 2.7%.
USD Index is at the highs of the year, having stopped its growth around 98.900 points after the announcement of the US government about the complete rejection of imports of Russian oil products and fuel. Despite the insignificant share in the procurement chains from the American side, the consequences will be negative for the country. Today, investors are waiting for the January data from JOLTS to assess the state of the labor market. Analysts assume that the number of open vacancies in the market will remain in December at 10.925M, and the growth of this indicator may become a necessary positive signal before the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting.
Support and resistance
The asset is corrected within the rising global channel, moving towards the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a growing buy signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new upward bars.
Resistance levels: 116, 117.2.
Support levels: 114.8, 113.6.
The yen is rapidly losing value, and it is obvious that without decisive steps from the Bank of Japan, further devaluation cannot be avoided. This morning, another disappointing report was published, which reflected the high rate of a slowdown in the national economy:
Q4 GDP increased by 1.1%, which is lower than the preliminary estimates of experts at 1.4%. The negative dynamics led to a drop in the annual rate to 4.6%, while analysts had expected values around 5.6%. Although it increased by 2.4%, the level of consumer spending also fell short of the forecasted 2.7%.
USD Index is at the highs of the year, having stopped its growth around 98.900 points after the announcement of the US government about the complete rejection of imports of Russian oil products and fuel. Despite the insignificant share in the procurement chains from the American side, the consequences will be negative for the country. Today, investors are waiting for the January data from JOLTS to assess the state of the labor market. Analysts assume that the number of open vacancies in the market will remain in December at 10.925M, and the growth of this indicator may become a necessary positive signal before the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting.
Support and resistance
The asset is corrected within the rising global channel, moving towards the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a growing buy signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new upward bars.
Resistance levels: 116, 117.2.
Support levels: 114.8, 113.6.
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Brent Crude Oil, US rejection of Russian oil supports prices
Prices on the oil market continue to rise. On Monday, quotes rose above 135 but then corrected downwards. At present, the positive dynamics of the instrument have resumed against the backdrop of the US imposing a ban on the import of "black gold" from Russia. The UK authorities announced similar measures planned to be implemented by the end of this year. The EU expects to abandon Russian oil even later, as it cannot yet find an adequate replacement. According to experts from The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., last year, Russia provided 11% of the world's energy consumption, so the current actions of the US administration cause investors to fear that the shortage of "black gold" in the market will increase and push prices up.
In the medium term, the trend towards long-term growth is unlikely to change, especially since the participants of the OPEC+ agreement are not in a hurry and cannot increase oil production due to the lack of technical ability. Under these conditions, the US administration is betting on negotiations with Iran and releasing part of the strategic reserves for sale but the effectiveness of these steps to curb the growth of quotations is still doubtful. For weeks, US officials have been saying that the "nuclear deal" is close to being finalized but no deal has yet been signed. Also, after the sanctions restrictions are lifted from Iran, it will take a long time to expand production capacities and increase energy supplies to the market. The sale by consumers, led by the US, of 60M barrels of oil from reserves in the current environment may lead to a price correction but is unlikely to reverse the uptrend.
The growth dynamics of Brent Crude Oil quotations may slow down soon, as spring has begun in the main consumer countries, and at this time, the need for active use of energy carriers is traditionally reduced.
Support and resistance
The price consolidated above 125.00 (Murrey [6/8]), which allows growth to 137.50 (Murrey [7/8]), 140.00, 150.00 (Murrey [8/8]). After a reverse breakdown of 125.00, a correction to the area of 112.50 (Murrey [5/8]) is not ruled out but its potential looks limited since the indicators generally signal the continuation of the upward trend: Bollinger bands reverse upwards, and the MACD histogram grows in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 137.50, 140.00, 150.00.
Support levels: 125.00, 112.50, 100.00.
In the medium term, the trend towards long-term growth is unlikely to change, especially since the participants of the OPEC+ agreement are not in a hurry and cannot increase oil production due to the lack of technical ability. Under these conditions, the US administration is betting on negotiations with Iran and releasing part of the strategic reserves for sale but the effectiveness of these steps to curb the growth of quotations is still doubtful. For weeks, US officials have been saying that the "nuclear deal" is close to being finalized but no deal has yet been signed. Also, after the sanctions restrictions are lifted from Iran, it will take a long time to expand production capacities and increase energy supplies to the market. The sale by consumers, led by the US, of 60M barrels of oil from reserves in the current environment may lead to a price correction but is unlikely to reverse the uptrend.
The growth dynamics of Brent Crude Oil quotations may slow down soon, as spring has begun in the main consumer countries, and at this time, the need for active use of energy carriers is traditionally reduced.
Support and resistance
The price consolidated above 125.00 (Murrey [6/8]), which allows growth to 137.50 (Murrey [7/8]), 140.00, 150.00 (Murrey [8/8]). After a reverse breakdown of 125.00, a correction to the area of 112.50 (Murrey [5/8]) is not ruled out but its potential looks limited since the indicators generally signal the continuation of the upward trend: Bollinger bands reverse upwards, and the MACD histogram grows in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 137.50, 140.00, 150.00.
Support levels: 125.00, 112.50, 100.00.
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